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VGGL gapped past my standing buy order. Emotion was a concern, I'll let it go as usual, when stocks gap past me.
Back on watch for me.
F ford closed today.
Week 3 of high tight flag.
The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it !
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p11878560184
High tight flags tend to break up or down in week 3. Watch closely next week. TIP theory in the works.
Also look long, but trade short term;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ATLC&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p79156146929
It doesn't have enough volume interest to trade and if one wants to invest, that should be on big board climbers with good financial results, not double zero stocks.
Today on unusual volume interest recently; 500k x .005 = $2,500 cash traded on 12 trades. Average volume 250k, average price .003 the past 30 days = $750. Just not liquid.
A rule of thumb for entry/exit of any stock is, don't hold more then 10% of the average daily volume. As it becomes to hard to sell out for gains.
Accumulating at lows, to sell on emotion pops is a Bottom fishing strategy. Which requires that large emotion day to sell into. Keep this in mind. Forget the investment mindset. Dump on any price and volume emotion seen. That's how bottom fishers make money. IMO investing in OTC company potential breaks hearts and portfolios.
Here's the chart look of playing at the OTC;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DCLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p64017012343
Want to invest? try this;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&id=p08620358960
Lets move MSFT from watch to strong watch for flag breakout.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p56682245979
I see AMBS on the OTC crashed today. off strong watch.
Yea; it was 2003/4 When I tried .0001 bottom fishing as a technique. Put $100 in 10 .0001 stocks and closed 5 for doubles I think. 3 at even, and 2 stocks stopped trading, over a year hold.
Can't remember the exact ratio, but I did end up just making money. Took too long, was a pain re-entering sell orders monthly back then and didn't make that much. So gave that idea up. And started learning about dividend stocks for a portfolio hold or base income.
The whole concept was to start a business plan with 50% of my need guaranteed each year. Was 100% playing in pennyland then. And 20% of the knowledge I have now.
Lost my cash 2004, saved up and started again late 2004. 2005 had a working business plan, including position & swing trading at the big boards, day and swing trading at the OTC and 1 divvy play.
Since; I've always had a business plan diversified between long, mid and short term equities. Based on personal success rates achieved in each area and market growth potential for the up coming year.
I think every beginner on the OTC has tried the .0001 buy and .0002 sell for a double. The problem with this is the order queue. First in first out and so many trying to get .0001. With hundreds maybe thousands of orders in front of you. It can take months in some cases. Think it takes a long time to get in, well think how many are in, trying to sell at .0002 ahead of you, once in. Then multiply it's wait time for your order to close by 10, because there is 10 times less people buying high then trying to buy low at .0001. The only volume at .0002 is usually those tired of waiting for .0001 so they try .0002, hoping for .0004.
LOL
The automatic double is there. But the turn around time can make this type of play take 6 months for a round trip, if lucky. And many stocks new to .0001 end up off the market in less then a year.
When I started trading in early 2000's there was a stock ADOT which flipped .0001 to .0002 for 5 years. It was so well known, it maintained daily volumes in the billions, as everyone took turns swapping in and out. That's where I got the term musical chairs plays. The music plays, you walk around for months, once your in the game, and wait for your turn to sit down, and someone else to loose. Until the stock stops trading all together.
May your turkey be on your table, not in your portfolio.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Been a while. Funny that guy brings you back. LOL Been well, thanks.
Robert F.X. Sillerman Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Bob has pioneered some of the most successful businesses in television, radio, promotion, marketing & live entertainment. Through the sales of SFX Entertainment and SFX Broadcasting, he’s also driven some of the largest transactions in the history of live entertainment and radio. Viggle is Sillerman’s ninth public company.
I see he's more of a Dennis Rodman, then Sir Richard Branson, but 8 successes in the bank isn't bad. Plus he's putting his money where his mouth is. With a $30 mil funding deal, and 1.5 mil common warrants 10% above market if exercised, as things start happening, execution wise. I also like, the philosophy of buying the ask; to promote price continuation. And he is actually willing to buy above ask, in the future.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/viggle-secures-30-million-investment-120000701.html
Just an interested by-stander for now.
VGGL
Liking what I'm seeing at Viggle Inc. Seems management is starting to execute it's updated business plan and get recognition. Keeping an eye on it for when the emotion calms down in 2015. Mean while strong watch for flag break, entry.
And some calmer volume support.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VGGL&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p71533924938
This could get interesting above $5 bucks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VGGL&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p38681921790
Speculation chart
link back
Where are they hedging unsustainable climb? This causes me concern for the future. Try to find reported info on the derivatives market growth. We can see commodities, bonds, treasuries ETC. Where's the transparency regulations in the big guy market, which caused the worlds crash?
Student loans, mark my word. The next problem.
Actually haven't started next years evaluation or business plan research yet. But global, I'd like to see the dollar index back off some, to counter the weakness elsewhere. Having the most expensive products helps growth elsewhere, but not at home. On the other hand cheap energy will help everyone. So if oil stays low for any length of time, it may balance out for us.
My 2014 target was S&P $2050, which has already been passed with the Santa rally to come. And logic says nothing continues up forever. So Q1 could be a struggle, until the Repubs start pumping deregulation for corps Q2.
The only doom and gloom I see for 2015/16 right now, is the possibility of the derivatives market crashing us again. As there has been no real change in banking's/wall streets speculation loopholes. AIG is still alive and well, backing swaps & MBAs. And those products, which bailouts stold cash from Americans, are still popular and being traded. The market is presently working on breaking up student loans, (trillions) like it did with real estate mortgages. This could create a scare if employment & especially wages don't improve.
AMBS target .10 to .105
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMBS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p32381756635
Oh yea missed NPTN strong watch for 2.60 to 3.40 channel break. With target @ 4.20 next resistance. Needs volume interest.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NPTN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p10636372922
F ford back on strong watch for 15.75 tight high flag resistance break, re-entry.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p97729191965
Along with;
WLT tight high flag
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p66643111187
JCP ascending triangle continuation
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JCP&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p87343880972
On weekly watch
MSFT flag
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p98351497366
ZBB double bottom
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZBB&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p46486809983
SHLD up channel
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SHLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p56622493249
RAD break into gap down area on large volume
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p97163697722
FMNA continuation into gap down area on large volume
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FNMA&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p62787368446
TALK's fleece is over; until a new price pull down into triple zero area. IMO
I know you like the company. But we trade the OTC game action, not background story. One thing hasn't changed on the OTC. Retail doesn't run price, big guys do. Their just running price differently now.
I'm still hoping for and waiting for, a free traded run on the OTC. That would be great. Being able to trade TA & charts on the OTC. But so far haven't seen a free trading run happen. Keeping an eye on AMBS.
STTK todays hot pop stock. Take profits when they present !
The other day I mentioned my theory for the new OTC game tell was;
Everyone looking for a volume spike, 3 to 10 days before price pop ?
The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it !
My question was, why did the company PR business news out of the blue. Last news was months ago, and no funding was involved. They were paying off debit owed, not debit issued. This led to my Tin Foil hat guess the accumulation was insiders which knew conversion was about to happen.
IMO retail just got double teamed !
Here's what caused the price pop today.
Yea, since ARR has all negative chart patterns and Dec divvy is locked in. I'm watching closely for a dip, buying op, to lower my basis and catch the last dividend, before the Dec 11th ex date.
http://www.dividendinvestor.com/historical.php?no=45231
AMBS
You wouldn't happen to be a paramedic by profession? Always trying to save a life.
There isn't a single thing indicating this one has many heart beats in it left. Seen in the fundamentals and huge short interest. Add to that, the island reversal pattern which just happened.
Your looking for the wrong thing to invest or trade. A comeback stock. Try searching for something with potential. On the verge of breaking out. Not one that just rolled over on it's side.
Positive chart patterns, with good technical indicators and improving volume interest.
IMO SZYM is one of the turkeys, that will be on thanksgiving tables to be eaten. Also forget failing tax selling stocks as possible bottom bouncers. That theory, only works in theory, per my experience.
link back
Talk about missing some, Sold ROST Wens @ 82, not expecting to see 84 trade target and look what happened Friday. Got 12% and just missed 8% in 2 days. Could care less. Got what I wanted. Lost nothing. A trading mindset.
Now I'll continue watching for new re-entry chart opportunity. Because if it breaks $80, eventually it should reach $120. I plan on playing in & out of Ross Store in 2015.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ROST&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p81574345435
Here's the video on how to trade high emotion stocks. Please excuse all the coughing and my end of video brain freeze. Not the best video I've don't. LOL
I kept adding comments to that post. Trying to explain how to play a stock like TEF. But it's hard to convey in words. I think this could be an interesting subject, so I'm doing a video about this;
Yea, looked at TEF before and didn't comment. I don't like emotion and TEF's stock has more gaps, with price pops and dives, then the average Telco. Plus big institutional and analysts aren't covering it strongly. If their not interested, lack of stability may be the turn off. Personally think you could find a more stable company to place your savings.
Short term there are gaps below, needing fill. Very possible you see 14.50 before you see 18.50.
Swing traders stock IMO. Swing trading the short term gaps would work well there. With a day traders mindset. Meaning take profits frequently don't hold too long for gap targets. As there seems to always be gap fill attempts, but rarely completely filled, short term.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TEF&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p12245040592
Yep; Richard Branson knows how to tie things together. And feed off the benefits of each other.
Bet employees get great discounts to use Virgin Mobile to call for a plane trip on Virgin Air, so they can stay at a Virgin Hotel and work out at a new Virgin Gym, while paying with a Virgin bank card.
Bet they own the company which made their website. LOL
http://www.virgin.com/company
You got my point!
Management is the key to this company. EPS growth and margins remain consistent no matter the various stages/directions the company business plan enters or exits.
Remember once a large cap reaches a certain size, the only manageable way for growth is thru acquisition. At that point, the skill of adding margin by finding smaller growth companies with potential, is more important then actually managing business operation.
Once a company gets to $26 bil market cap, the synergy of the divisions become more important then the backbone, (signature product) as you call it. That's when companies do business within itself, keeping costs down and profits under one umbrella.
Meaning; say a company spends $2 mil a year, putting tires on their automotive fleet. Good management will buy a tire company. Bang; $2 mil goes back into the company and the tire division just got another large customer.
Intuit Inc management has been great at this. I don't mean good at buying tire companies. LOL but any smaller company which will add synergy to the over all operation.
Is that "sell order" for gain alone or gain and acceptable loss. OCO order ???
Regarding the speculation chart I just posted on TALK. I'd like to mention something pennylanders should keep an eye out for in the NEW OTC game.
This is a the job for penny players to look for repeat patterns in volume and price, that will aid in seeing a dark setup happening.
A
The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it !
Thing.
I did notice 2 or 3 times recently. just before 1 or 2 day pops, there were bottom volume spikes, just before a dump price pop. Keep an eye out for that happening alot. Could be the tell?
One could go back and check alot of old OTC pop plays to see if this holds true as a possible indication a pop dump may come.
Called that out in the TALK chart.
Price pull down, Stall, large volume spike, channel and pop. It's a single volume spike which interests me. Not a series of volume spikes. A series could just be bottom fishers. But a single spike could indicate dark accumulation because dark knows when they plan to convert and dump.
We're looking for some indication a conversion price level is reached. Not a bottom is reached. I think the key may be 1 large volume day vs, several. My theory; 1 means pre dump accumulation, many means bottom fishers.
Keep an eye out for just 1, then how many times you see a price pop 3 to 10 days later. Because the normal funding conversion discount is based on 3, 5 or 10 day VWAP
I hate emotion. And never chase a running stock. Not my cup of tea for a swing trade.
But; I always seem to have a but in there some where. LOL
Following the investment rule of thumb; When a stock breaks $80, you can expect $120 being reached eventually. And this strong Q report.
Now may be a good time to evaluate taking on a mid term position trade.
Strong management results, good institutional position size, nice price trend, small short position, weak dividend. Contract pipeline ?
Caution on a Bump & run pattern. I'd like it to get back into the up channel and fill that gap @ 87 first.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=INTU
If you want to start removing emotion from your trading business. Try planning each trade before entry. Pick entry and exit points before you enter and trade the plan.
(%) percentage Trailing stops come in handy, if no chart pattern target is available and no acceptable loss figure picked.
The most important part of any plan is to only adjust to preserve capital, not increase gain. Meaning always take what you wanted, but try to leave with a smaller loss.
Positive trades add up. Negative ones snowball. Bit by bit leads to successful trading. Needing more to emotional mistakes.
There is a standing vender debit judgment being converted on the way down with IBC Funds. Expect that pop was one.
Company is a conundrum, with little retail following. Probably continue to walk down for funding.
Here's one I called wrong and missed added gain in.
MSFT position trade closed at 47.25 target Sept and expected retrace to high 30ties. But only retraced to 42. Missed the entire "V" bottom come back, because I don't trade emotion and it was full of gap opens. Expected a gap fill to start any day. LOL and missed a lot. Didn't lose a thing. So what: Moved it to watch @ 47.25 break (my exit) and I have it back on strong watch now, for new flag re-entry swing trade.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p00107347985
There was a time missing $42.50 to $49.50 and watching it happen, would have drove me nuts. Now all I think about is what pattern setup next. Missed opportunities are irrelevant to my bottom line.
Again; liking WLT re-entry. For chart and the GOP win. Keep an eye on it for $3.50 breakout entry.
Back story;
Coal regulations about to weaken and coal producers stock improve. Senate majority-leader-to-be from Kentucky, who ran his entire campaign on coal. Should start his lame duck setup soon and IMO investors are now seeing lost potential in the coal producing industry again.
FNMA still needs that one big emotion volume push to be considered in come back mode. IMO yesterday and today were promising, but to get the majority psychology investing again the short term sentiment needs exuberance. But this action does give you the best chance for a come back mindset since the dive.
Keep your fingers crossed. Haven't quite seen the possible conservatorship news believed, as much as wanted.
I mean most feel Government and logic, is a oxymoron. And the government mob boss giving their AMT business back to the bank mob boss, won't get the votes yet.
Ever wonder why "The mob" bailed out AIG (the USA's biggest enemy)with a loan + "VIG" and Fannie and Freddie got rubbed out?
Mob politics. LOL FNMA & FMCC needs to kiss a few more rings on the bosses hands still. We'll see how many they kissed Feb 2015.
Just my opinion !
Think of a miss; like this.
You should have played NUS or CRMT both gave over 10% today and you missed them.
You could have played ENG or INVE both had over 18% today and you missed them.
If you would have played KIRK or EDAP you'd have made 25% today.
Yet these stock misses don't bother you.
Why worry about the one you did know about. Just another missed opportunity. There's plenty of them every day !!!!
Why should the one you knew about, bother you more then the ones you didn't know about? I missed them all and could give a chit.
Don't let what you miss concern you. Only the one you don't sell before a loss, actually hurt you. and only the one that give you any gain helps. Misses are irrelevant.
Strong watch !!
Notice freaky FNMA was at it again. Trying to break past 2.40 resistance into gap fill area.
Like the volume emotion. Not quite there, but if tomorrow emotion gives volume out, equal to volume in and resistance is broken. Should be come back time. Say a 75 mil day.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FNMA&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p55123792004
NYMT is the reason I wanted to do a post on dividend stocks. Still have that on my to do list. But had to execute my plan for my divvy stocks today.
So those interested in dividend stocks, here's why and what I just did.
This post is not a basics post. It's a complex plan, once a play is chosen. I still need to post about basics. So I'm putting the horse in front of the cart.
But this is a template to help with how to play long term dividend investments. The basics post will help with picking a new play. This post helps with executing a plan. Every business needs a plan !!!
My individual investment plan is holding dividend stocks with over 10% dividend, at least, for 2 years and moving to the next one. Using 10% of my portfolio cash, for each dividend stock held. Locking in yearly gain %, reducing swing trading success rates needed to reach yearly business goal.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=105989862
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I've held and adjusted basis at NYMT since 2012. Buying dips to lower basis. Started at 6.66 and now held at 6.10. NYMT dividend is paid quarterly and I just got the last Q for 2014 into my account Oct.27th. Thus the dividend part of this investment is over. And NYMT has been on an un sustainable climb IMO since. So I felt it's time to take price profits and pick new divvy plays for 2015's business plan. Held NYMT & ARR as long dividend plays.
Been watching the climb at NYMT for the first sign of a reversal and today I got that red day signal. First day since the run after the Oct. last divvy pay date. So I took my 35% price gain over 2 years and 15% divvy for 2013 and 17% for 2014. Total investment for 2 years ended at 62%.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NYMT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p58332738952
The plan for selling NYMT included moving that cash into my second dividend stock, which I started in 2013. ARR. ARR has a monthly dividend payout, with quarterly announcements. That means I have a locked in dividend to the end of the year there now.
http://www.dividendinvestor.com/historical.php?no=45231
ARR chart is at a stall, since my last buy op lowering my basis from 4.80 to 4.10, first week of Oct. So adding a large 10% of my portfolio (from closing NYMT) to ARR's price now, will bring my basis down lower for the last 2 guaranteed dividends Nov and Dec. Increasing my return to over 15% for this year. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ARR&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p90569399620
Where I plan on selling and starting completely new in 2015. Plan was out of NYMT & ARR 2015.
PS; I have no idea why, but stockcharts charts on NYMT & ARR are not accurate. So for true price levels, I've been using Yahoo finance.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ARR+Interactive#
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NYMT+Interactive#
At any rate my plan goal is to buy a large new position at ARR between 3.90 to 3.95, depending on what happens the next week there. Bringing my basis down to 4.00 or lower? That way, once I collect the last 2 month divvy. http://www.dividendinvestor.com/historical.php?no=45231
I should at least break even on the price action, since my June 10th 2013 entry. Maybe even a small gain, if price runs to end of year, after my new buying op move @ 3.90 hopefully. We'll see. But over all, I've collected 7% for 2013 (1/2 a year)and 15% for 2014 divvies. For a total investment gain of 22% @ ARR.
I know all this is difficult to understand and many readers won't take the time to research the numbers presented. But understanding the actions I've taken, will give one a good basic understanding how to increase total long term ROI while investing long in dividend stocks.
It's not just about picking the largest dividend return for entering a long term dividend play, It also includes the prior price action. As choosing the largest divvy can be washed out, when it's time to move on, if the stock price fall is equal to, or larger then the divvy received.
Example right now;
PER has a 30% divvy.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PER&ty=c&ta=0&p=w
It's been increasing pay out for 3 years. 77%
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PER&ty=c&ta=0&p=w
But has eaten up a present 30% ROI in price decline the past 2 years. $17.70 Nov 2012 to Nov 2014 $8.62 or -50% price decline.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PER+Interactive#
So you end up with around 10% over a 2 year hold. 60% +/- in divvies and 50% decline in price. And since dividend paid is normally based on EPS, eventually they won't be able to maintain their dividend payout amount much longer. As their "this year" and "next year" EPS is falling -13% in next years projection.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PER&ty=c&ta=0&p=w
This example shows choosing to buy/start a long dividend play in PER is not wise, even though your looking at a huge 30% dividend today.
As always; It's all in the plan and the plans numbers !
Closed 2 long positions at end of day today. My 2 year divvy in NYMT and my new Q position play at ROST.
Moved into ROST in Sept, when I closed MSFT @ target. Plan was 74 to 84 target, on mid term flag. Took advantage of todays pop, as I don't feel sentiment for continuation to 84 will hold. Out at 82 and happy.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ROST&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p64497358818
Been liking F ford for come back position play and just closed a swing trade there. Now watching F of new flag to take a position trade there until the end of this year.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p43740485209
Will cover dividend trade in next post.
But the lesson in this post is when your investing long; you need to plan on the next position trade, before leaving the current one.
I left MSFT but was watching ROST for entry. Left ROST but am watching F for entry. When investing you need plans just like swing trading. Maybe more so. Because investing requires knowledge of the financial psychology to keep a climb climbing for several months. Basic, simple and clean; insider action, management performance and short interest will support mid term direction. And without support mid term targets have lower odds for mid term chart target being achieved.