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Gestalt, spot in w your Mono comments. Gilead and BP’s in the HIV space said we are passing on Combo. If Mono delivers let’s talk. That’s where we are. 90% plus efficacy w no red flags on safety is going to change the discussion.
They would have to present any legitimate offer to the Shareholders.
At this moment $5 would not be turned down. The offer would be presented to shareholders and IMO accepted.
If we move the clock forward six months $5 probably would not be accepted.
That’s the reality of what Gilead or any other BP is facing to gain the rights to this molecule. Play now or pay more later. Gilead is just praying we run out of financing or have so little $ that we keep moving at a snails pace. That buys them time to come up with their own molecule or another solution that replaces Leronlimab.
The reality is we are severely compromised with lack of $, consequently Gilead is just biding it’s time. Regardless, the tipping point is approaching as the stakes and risk to Gilead increase with each passing day. That’s why I’m more excited than I’ve ever been for 2019. Last chapter is upon us.
As has been stated by numerous posters, let’s hope management is up for the task and represents us well.
Agreed, but remember FDA required Combo Trial to get to Mono Trial. Nader had no choice. FDA really cost us a lot of time and $’s.
Thanks Ahab. Running out the door will read later.
Doesn’t mean I’m right and know more than you. This is just opinions from people that convinced me to invest that have large positions and been around forever. We all get a bit jaded over time. Your posts are always very insightful and logical. Just adding my two cents.
Very good point regarding Gilead. They want Leronlimab and CYDY to go away. If we have funding or an interested party they are going to have to jump because of the Mono implications. They passed on Combo because they could. Mono is a whole new problem that they are going to be forced to deal with.
I have discussed this with Tony C numerous times. He should know how Gilead thinks since he was an integral part of their move from nobody to the number one BP in the HIV space.
I get your perspective on the Prostate Test. It solves all financial issues if it can roll out as you say. My intel says not that simple and not as likely as Pestell is painting it. I’m not going to get into all the details but basically there is considerable expense to monetize the Prostate test and valuations are not realistic.
This is not my area of expertise so I’m just repeating what I am hearing. Mono is much further down the clinical path and it could be sold off separately with royalties on the Cancer indications being another package - with Pestell possibly finding a new home with whoever buys the molecule.
We will know so much more 1H 2019. I can’t imagine being out of this stock for even one day at this point.
AIMHO
BD, that is in a nutshell exactly how Nader and Pestell are looking at it. I also basically see it the same way. Small Paulson raises until the landscape changes. My only difference with your thesis is the catalyst will be the P3 Pivotal Mono Trial. As soon as FDA approves protocol it will enroll within a couple months and the writing will be on the wall. If it’s the Prostate test great, I just don’t see it compared to the leverage with BP regarding the efficacy and clean safety profile at the 700ml dosage. 90% plus Mono efficacy forces Gilead’s hand especially if another BP moves first. Bottom line is it’s going to disrupt SOC and it will only take one interested party to start a bidding war. Gilead is rolling the dice right now with their nose in the air. We shall see 1H 2019 how this plays out.
I don’t know Blue, but the consistent PR’s and communication has improved since Pestell has become part of the team. Also appears to be many catalysts converging that have an increasing likelihood of creating a tipping point in attracting a partnership, licensing deal, or complete buy out. Somethings going to give between now and 1H 2019, the science is just short of being proven with as Misiu reminds us no SAE’s. I speculate that the call is to reinforce the stage of the game Leronlimab is currently in and that the end game is fast approaching.
Been in 6 years. Have a half million shares. Have been patient and will remain so until we are purchased. Science will prevail. Pivotal Mono is going to be the tipping point.
Yes weary is a good word for how I feel also. So close but maybe yet so far. It is hard to fathom that a deal won’t be struck at some point through the Mono Pivotal. The 92% Efficacy on 700ml is not top secret info. Gilead has to know what is at stake especially give Tony C’s relationship.
The company wants just that-$50M. The current available terms to get such lump sum are worse than Paulson. So for now it’s small raises with Paulson until the science reaches the tipping point o change the dynamics. Somewhere in the Pivotal Mono Trial process this will happen. That, IMO is the companies game plan.
A bit premature E.
Big events on the horizon. The kind of deal management is looking for will require the big event; Mono protocol accepted by FDA and patients enrolled. That should all be completed byQ2 2019 as enrollment will take two months much unlike the Combo enrollment. Gilead or the likes will be forced to make a play. We are talking 92% Efficacy with no safety issues. They will have no choice as their entire HIV platform will be at risk. This isn’t Combo it’s Mono and their worst nightmare is on the brink of reality. A Mono solution that is more effective then their multiple pills with no safety issues.
Good luck to Milligan’s replacement at Gilead. Time to retool with Leronlimab.
Glad to have you hanging around Grip. Believe me I get your frustration with the SP.
IMO it is clear that we will only proceed to the promised land when Paulson is replaced with conducive financing. We can’t escape the huge volume of .50 shares and warrant overhang until Paulson is out of the picture. The only way I can translate right now is Paulson is our best option until they are not. The feeling, hope, or speculation is this will be changing soon. You have every right to call BS until it actually happens because many of us have been preaching this scenario and nada from Nader except talk followed with nada.
Any exposure coming from Pestell is a plus. Sales and marketing success is dependent on knowledge and most importantly the ability to present; connect with your audience and articulate a compelling story - it’s called presence and charisma - either you have it or you don’t. Pestell has it and Nader doesn’t. These dog and pony shows are a plus, however they would be more effective if Pestell was 90 percent of the show.
Leronlimab is Naders paternal baby. He just needs to understand his limitations and that he is not the poster boy - Pestell is. I think this is where we are headed as It will be obvious that Pestell has the intangibles that can attract the right people.
That is my guess also. I believe Paulson is toxic and yes Nite is probably their platform to dump. Nite has what seems to be an endless amount of shares waiting to be sold.
Bulldog, It’s depressing to read an article like this that points out the manipulation that is clearly illegal but cannot be enforced. The question is how accurate is this article as to CYDY’s SP? One could make the case that this exactly what we have been experiencing with what seems to be keeping a lid on our SP. Our Anemic volume supports this thesis.
The one variable that will end the manipulation is a Financing/Partnership deal and successful trials - when big volume trading comes this game will end. I’m talking about major news and 10 million plus shares traded daily for a week or so. The catalysts are in place to create this scenario.
A17, we shall see. ODD could play out as you suggest and that wouldn’t be a negative especially if BTD was granted.
Mono Trial filing this year would be another plus and sign of competency. Pestell’s experience may be the voice of reason guiding Nader. There’s your management wild card changing for the better. I too have been nervous about management as has the market. That appears to be steadily shifting.
Momentum is building and will build more by meeting timelines. I will be redundant. Financing is the missing piece and only concern right now. Paulson has to be sent packing.
Yes, I am hopeful but more importantly much more confident with Pestell on board.
Cleaning up the balance sheet and filling up the bank account would go a long way in expediting the trials and beating timelines. Financing/Partnership is the news I’m waiting for. A17 is thinking Q2. That’s very encouraging coming from someone that was quite bearish not long ago. I’m going out on a limb and thinking Q1 and we are bought out by Q4 2019.
“As we have previously disclosed, we intend to execute on our timeline for clinical trial development of TNBC. Our first milestone was to start the TNBC trial this year. We are pleased that we are ahead of schedule. We also intend to file for Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) and orphan drug designation if interim results are positive.
The pattern of never meeting a timeline appears to have been broken. My take is Nader is much more experienced and competent and Pestell is competent-period. The only piece to the puzzle that is missing is a positive financing play. That IMO is the catalyst that will make this a runaway train in terms of valuation. The science is in position to headline in Q1 2019 for both HIV Mono and TNBC. The tipping point is upon us.
Exactly BL. I would bet that the company has that data on a spread sheet. If I was running the show I certainly would.
Thank you ahab. I look forward to this coming year. A Happy Thanksgiving to you also.
Quite right trding. Either the company will get $107M or the 139M warrants will expire and never come into play.
Probably will end up somewhere between those numbers as more warrants will expire and not be exercised. Many warrant holders, myself included will not exercise unless the SP is substantially higher than the exercise price. Too much risk in the time lag to consummate the transaction and low volume are big risks when deciding to exercise.
Buy out is the only event that automatically puts the warrants in play.
“How have you stomached the "this is it" mentality? No less than a dozen times I told myself the financing/partnership was coming and the run was around the corner.”
Rangers04, I feel your pain but also believe we have not yet delivered a powerful enough catalyst to create the financing/partnership we are looking for.
Have I been disappointed in the impact of specific catalysts on SP - most definitely. For example the companies expectations of meeting PE on the Combo Trial completely missed the mark. They felt that at the very least the SP was going to settle at $1.50. Optimistically they were hoping for $3 plus. We got nada. An organic rise in SP would have solved all of our financing problems because it would have moved us to the NASDAQ with a very small reverse split if any.
We have been froze out by Gilead and ViiV because the addition of Leronlimab to their existing Combo Cocktail generates no additional revenue. The only market for Leronlimab in the Combo space is for a smaller company wanting to develop a presence or going it alone. I spoke to Tony C many times about this and that was his take. He should know as he was VP of Commercialization for Gilead.
The game changer all along has been Mono approval. If we carry the 90% plus through the up coming Pivotal P3 we will not be denied. Understand the Combo Trial was not Nader’s path it was mandated by the FDA if we wanted to get our shot at Mono. Now we have our opportunity after a great deal of pain in the form of time and $. Add Pestell and his C play and all that he brings and we now have some powerful catalysts that will move the needle if the science continues to deliver with no safety concerns.
My belief is the risk has been reduced substantially and we are for the first time making BP pay attention to the reality of our HIV Mono threat. Pestell has added to the derisking with his full on belief in the science and our potential is much broader while our risk continues to decline. That is the trend currently as we look at our future. The SP will reflect this when financing/partnership comes to fruition.
I picked up another 50k shares last week at .55. So I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
Hyper, good to hear your thoughts. I agree with most everything you stated. My need to post has diminished substantially also as there is no need to restate what has already been posted. This board is gaining strength and by and large stays on point.
Please understand I am not down on Nader. He is a different man today because he has grown through this journey. Anyone who says he doesn’t understand the biotech space is IMO incorrect- much more competent today than 6 years ago. He’s a bit impatient with SH’s but he’s focused on the end game and that’s what I care about. With Pestell’s credibility and ability to articulate makes for a much more formidable team moving forward.
Onward and upward my friend.
Yes we agree- financing will change everything because the science will deliver.
If I’d been told that six years after having invested in CYDY the SP would be .60 I would have thought the science failed miserably. The ridiculous fact is the science is off the charts with no safety issues and yet no partner or non dilutive financing options. Pestell is a done deal with all the upside that he brings to the table and here we sit at .60. 2019 has to be our year. How can the market ignore the very high likelihood of this science disrupting both the HIV and TNBC space? Logic says it cannot.
The remaining question to be answered is what will be the catalyst that breaks the damn wide open. My gut tells me once we get some real backing from a partner or an IB and clean up the balance sheet we will never look back. With the Pestell deal closed we may be fast approaching this scenario. Can’t wait for that day and we see predominantly GREEN day in day out as we push towards the end game.
Well stated Blane.
Nader is being slammed because of current SP and the continual Paulson raises. Personally I think his seasoning and knowledge over the last six years outweigh replacing him. He also has a much better team in place.
As for commercialization that was Tony C’s expertise with Gilead. So they are not blind to the $ needed and hurdles. Personally I am not qualified to answer that question. I will say it may be a bluff to send the message to BP that they are not going to give the science away.
I’ll second that. AF is a low integrity all about what he can stir up for a $ crook IMO. Seriously Finesand?
Not sure on exact timeline. All shares will need to be accounted for. If your naked your naked.
That’s a fact 50k of the warrants were mine down the toilet.
He’s always over the top bullish to a fault. All I hear is we are almost there, that only works for a while. I stay informed and establish my own expectations.
I hear you BH. I too hope for double digits in the buy out. It’s been a long haul.
Many valid points G2. Your perspectives are much appreciated.
Value has always been what the market will bear or what someone is willing to pay. People ask what’s your house worth?- what someone is willing to pay. That question can’t accurately be answered until you put the house on the market. Unique high end luxury properties are a perfect example - you just don’t know. Find two or three parties that see exactly what they are wanting and the bidding war is on - no interested parties and you have a fire sale or it may not sell for many years. The likelihood of a fire sale of Leronlimab is about zero IMO. The eventual price will be dependent on many factors but ultimately it will be the degree of fear of loss that BP will assign to Leronlimab’s ability to disrupt the market. It would seem quite probable that their will be more than one interested party once one appears.
A short story. When I first invested in CYDY on the open market nearly six years ago it was because a girl friend of my wife was visiting at our home with her husband. I started talking to her husband about stocks and he said he was heavily invested in a small company that was holding the cure for HIV. I was skeptical to say the least as he was obviously overstating. His passion captured my attention as he went on to tell me how he had been the main investor throwing down $4 million to bail the company out of BK while engineering the acquisition of the rights to Pro-140 from Progenics. Nader became the CEO and he backed him. Needless to say he is loaded with shares and a Nader supporter. That story along with a slide presentation from Mulholland convinced me to take a flyer for 50,000 shares. The crazy part was I thought I was getting in early at a great price of .80 per share. The rest of the story is what it is as I have been through three Paulson raises with my first warrants having just expired in October. My average is still .80 and I shut off the risk at 500k shares.
I have had many moments where I have questioned this investment but not one concern relating to the science. Misiu you have been a rock when it comes to the science stabilizing the foundation of this investment.
It has now been a longer road than I ever expected with many more disappointments than accomplishments. My gut feeling based on the 700ml dosage for mono and everything Pestell brings we have just exited a long bumping dirt road onto a two way paved road. Our hope is to make it to the freeway and that is looking quite possible. It just feels much better to confidently know there will be no bag holding here. Now we sit and watch how this will play out.
The change in Cusip could likely be the catalyst that starts the rally. I had it happen once before in a very similar situation and it was prolific as the stock ran from less than a dollar to over $6 in a very short window as volume peaked at 30 million shares traded daily. So this naked short story true or not will be put to rest. The shorts naked or not will have to cover.
To my fellow Longs I believe the fun is about to begin.
I will second that Misiu. My take is we are finally on the radar.
Paulson is simply an option to avoid being forced into a deal that would severely undervalue Leronlimab’s increasingly disruptive potential. While financing may appear to be quite punitive and limited that story is about to change IMO.
With all that is in the works with Pestell, i.e. TNBC, the patented Prostate testing technology along with the increasing likelihood of Mono therapy gaining FDA approval and Combo BLA approval virtually a slam dunk, BP is now taking little CYDY much more seriously. Now a loaded gun if you will.
The question in my mind is similar to what Trading pointed out; the addition of Pestell and the cancer play is increasing the valuation while moving the timeline out for a buy out. Very interesting how this will play out. Will we take the $3-$5 per share in the next 3-6 months or roll the dice for a much larger pay day in 2020-2021. I get the feeling our investment is derisking at an accelerated rate and crossing the goal line is just a question of when. It’s about time.
I agree, but no word from Paulson or the company. So I assume they are content flushing the warrants.
All I know is about 6 million with the placement I was involved with Oct. 2013. Not sure what other raises are in the pipeline approaching 5 years. I would have thought the company would have thrown out an offer for the 6 million at .50
Thank you for your opinion on the injectable adoption. I really hope you are right about the next 12 months. I am extremely patient but I will say this is testing me. Nader has lost much credibility with me because of his inability to ever deliver on his speculative statements. Pestell’s credibility and articulation is something that has been missing. Much will be revealed in 2019.
First let me tell you again Misiu, Your medical background and insights into the science are quite valuable to myself and I’m sure many here. Thank you.
I am in the red also as are many that have been in longer than my six years. Averaged in at .80 with about 500k shares including warrants. Of which 40k expired this month. No way was I going to convert those shares at .75. I would have never dreamed I’d be letting those warrants go, the SP was $1.30 when I invested in that particular placement with Paulson. Would love to have waited and purchased all shares from Paulson at .50 with matching warrants. Hind sight is meaningless but still irritating to witness the erosion of the SP. It’s all been tied to the delays due to the lack of resources. Even with the stumbling that took place with the Combo Trial it was lack of funding that killed the pace of enrollment. Enrollment is not a problem if you have the budget to open sites and write the checks.
I’m not a complainer just a realist that speculates given the facts. The lack of funding has slowed the Combo BLA and Mono Trial to a snails pace. If we’d had adequate funding we’d have FDA approval for not just Combo but Mono by now. Nader has done the best he can on a limited budget. On the other hand not nearly as good of a job raising money. Although he has raised $140 million the majority has been on loan shark terms and this is where we will hopefully get help from Pestell and Klump. It’s frustrating to see the incredible level of efficacy and safety and the inability to expedite the process. It can seem as if Gilead and BP in general would like to see us wither away.
Now we have Pestell which adds a whole new space to our investment but also demands substantial funding to start the cancer trials. It seems something has to give on the funding end or Pestell would have looked elsewhere for a home. So here we are at the start of the cancer road while looking to fund the Combo BLA and finish the Mono Trial at the increased dosage. We already know that Mono is going to be 85-90% effective with a strong safety profile.
Some questions for you: How much of a negative is it that Pro-140 is an injectable? Is this a hurdle in terms of adoption within the HIV medical community? I ask these questions because it makes little sense at this juncture why we are stuck with Paulson as our only source of funding and no partnership or licensing agreement.
I spoke to Tony C just prior to the Pestell deal and it was clear that the company was shifting to the cancer story to raise money because the HIV story was out of gas with the Paulson investors.
A fresh financial package is what will change the valuation here. For that to happen we need news that will create the inflection point. Let’s see what happens with the closing of the Pestell deal and what the company has to say in November. Like Grip I’ve been left flat so many times I’m not getting my hopes up. I do believe we have something of serious value and that the science cannot be ignored indefinitely. So I am willing to patiently wait for the payday. That’s when all that have hung in there will look like geniuses.
Good luck to you Misiu and please keep posting your valued scientific perspective.