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T Trades crushed your bragging rights. .0992. Sorry, your technicals have only minor influence over MMs.
You don't think Coke would enter this market through their Sobe brand?!! Sobe has huge brand recognition over Dixie, and Coke's cost basis is much lower so their price will be very competitive and the cheap Walmart customers will buy on the bigger brand name with a lower price.
Does Walmart sell more Bud Light or Sam Adams? That's my point.. Bud light is cheaper because the manufacturing costs are lower because they mass produce the product (amongst other things like lower price of inputs).
Dixie couldn't ramp up production fast enough to compete with massive beverage brands without giving up huge margins to independent bottles and distributors.
It's an extraction patent: a process patent. One change that improves the process and the patent is useless. They get great concentrations from this patent, but that doesn't protect them from a startup tech firm finding a new way to get the same (or better) concentrations.
Vmax is correct in this: if somebody develops a unique extraction process that gets high concentrations, then there is nothing but price differentiation and brand loyalty to distinguish the products.
Brand loyalty may go a long way at dispensaries, but if this becomes mass marketed, people at Walmart won't care: they'll buy the cheaper stuff.
That's where the HUGE companies come into play with their international bottling and distribution agreements : they only need a high concentration ingredient to add to their products.
That would take time to correct and the audit would likely not be reported to the SEC in 90 days.. That tells the world something was being covered up and hype would be crushed by doubt... As the old saying goes "fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me". Big money will not play if there exists proof of past transgressions.
Worst case scenario, they delay audit until 24 months of clean #s are available. I.e. if Jan/Feb of '11 were fudged, they would restart with March '11 meaning two additional months.
Now.. This is all worst case scenario: I never said Llamas cooked the books, only that recent evidence brings to light a potential moral flaw in the old CEO and the installs some doubt in the legitimacy of the financials he oversaw.
Again, there is now no reason to cook, there is too much to lose, and I expect all recent activities to be on the up and up.
I was only stating a risk, from my perspective.
I think the probability of default is nil. Old manipulations would only impact the audit which would prevent the PPS from growing from increased P/E level hype.
I think the current picture is rosey, just don't expect any PPS movement until audit. Only that there is a small doubt that the audit might not be reported if fraud was discovered. We would have to wait for 24 months of clean records before they report to the SEC. They would not report historical abuses, even if the last year was all positive.
Debate me then: how am I wrong? Your argument is that of a 3 year old.
You're still not listening: 15LOC and Dixie is due to recent management movement.
I'm saying OLD management moves, more than a year old, could be problematic: I'm not saying Llamas is guilty, but doubt and guilt are two different words: the legal concerns brings into doubt his moral/ethic decision making process from the last few years... I.e. when he WAS running things.
The LOC could be contingent on a clean audit, and it takes alot of analysis to discover fraud, especially if it happened long ago and things were cleaned up and more recent activities are on the up and up.
I'm done with this subject: I made one damned statement regarding audit failure risk and you have all twisted it to feed your anger and frustration at the low PPS.
Certainly I am not the factor, I'm not driving the price down, I had no shares to sell most of Friday or today.. I bought today...
My buy order is in.. Still lots of support at .10, and I need to get to work:
What I've said so far is only thus:
Nothing big will happen until audit is reported with flying colors.
Only way to fail is if Llamas cooked the books.
If Llamas did cook 'in the past', its not necessarily going to be discovered by Tripp and the new board members.
I agree Q4 should be strong, and if the audit hasn't yet been reported we'll see some growth in PPS, but with the audit we'll see very strong support and real value growth of the PPS as larger institutions and the more weary investors begin to trust the company.
Wow. You're simply not paying attention:
LLAMAS COULD HAVE COOKED THE BOOKS 2 YEARS AGO AND CURRENT OFFICERS COULD POSSIBLY NOT KNOW IT.
This is not about last week or 4 months ago (well, maybe, he was still in charge then).
I'm just saying he brings doubt, not that he did, but that he could bar and it wouldn't be discovered until audit complete report is delivered to MJNA.
.10 is a solid price with good support, .11 was unreasonable and it fell fast!
Waiting to show my hand? I said on Friday I was liquid waiting for today. I'm negative against all the overly positive. I'm long, I just want people to stop smoking, sober up and get a realistic expectation for the next few weeks... There's no news until audit complete...
It's not about future quarters: if they failed an audit of Q2 2011, all 24 months will have to be redone starting the first month they passed.
You fail if the books are cooked or anything else illegal is discovered.
I'm not saying they will fail, I'm certainly hope they pass with flying colors, but Mr Llamas brings concerns into that equation.
I hate to say it.. But, TIMBER!!!!
I don't disagree, but not even MJNA knows if their books from 2 years ago are cooked by Llamas. The audit is independent and MJNA will not get the results until completed.
Yeah, saw that. 5000 shares? It's too small. Probably just a retail buyer on a very small brokerage.
Wow, and jbloom knows everything!
(Sorry jbloom, we're talking about expectations, and no investor should trust the words of a stranger).
Audit ends Dec 31st, but the company has 90 days to report.
Normal quarterlies have 45 days to report and MJNA has always taken the entire 45. So historical evidence suggests they'll report audit at 90 days which is 45 days after Q4 financials.
Of course, we all hope it occurs on the same day, but that's a large gamble...
As well, if they fail the audit, they don't have to report or even admit it: OTC isn't regulated by the SEC, and SEC rules are just a guideline in the OTC.
We wouldn't know if they failed the until 91 days if they haven't reported its safe to assume they won't. And be sure of this, there will be no PR regarding a failed audit.
Define eventually, that word is very subjective.
My definition: 6-10 years for full legal.
If you're going for a P/E to pump the stock, at least use LinkedIn.. Sheesh.
The hype that would drive P/E is suppressed by three things:
1) HUGE regulatory risk
2) No audit, no serious investor would put money into an unaudited company
3) this stock has a huge float and is subject to pink market forces and manipulation, doesn't help that the # shares outstanding are huge too, effectively driving the price low... Until audit, all demand will be met by the very large float: this liquidity leaves huge room for shorters and pump-n-dumpers to take huge gains out while deflating any momentum that would normally drive PPS.
No short term gains to be had here. It's either long or short hoping it goes down.
Don't let stocks like Medbox fool you, the capital structure is very different. Be careful.
On that, I agree wholeheartedly. I sold on Friday looking to buy back in today or tomorrow. I have no dry powder, just what's already in the cannon.
Keep trusting in pot, but your political awareness is clouded. There is no significant short term gain to be had here.
Unless you have many many shares at such a low averaged cost that 1¢ is a huge return.
You know the old saying:
S*** in one hand and wish in the other? There isn't enough political pressure yet. 2 states for legal? Other states are still turning down legalized medical... The political tide is turning, but not anytime soon...
Lets say the administration wanted to support this: they would simply tell Holder an the DEA to hold back, behind closed doors with no formal declaration. If they wanted to crush it, only then would they publicly declare anything.
About $1.05
$1B value / 950M shares outstanding
To justify 1B the company needs between 150-200M a year revenues.
I don't doubt there is potential for this, but this level of revenues will take a few years unless serious hype kicks in like LinkedIn.
This is an emerging market, so that type of hype can help, but we have too many shares outstanding, hype just can't be sustained, there are just too many shares in the float, all demand can be met by small penny by penny increments.
As well, it will take years for the market to grow large enough for this company to have a moderate market share such that they'll make 200M a year in revenues.
If you're looking for $1, you need LOTS of hype and risk appetite to drive a P/E towards 100, or you need to be long for 4-6 years.
Or somehow our politicians pass a law to legalize it, but would a president veto?
This entire analysis ignores the regulatory risks (I.e. the fed cracking down)
A Line of Credit (LoC) is not actual debt: its like your credit card. It's there when you need it. It's actually beneficial. When you find a resource your need, the money is available but you aren't paying interest until its tapped.
As well, debt management can help a company's value: its tax deductible, it lowers earnings but not revenues. Companies are truly valued based on revenues first and foremost: other pros and cons add or take value from a basic valuation using revenues.
So a well managed firm with plenty of ability to manage debt can actually go up in value, positively impacting PPS.
However, increasing S/O without a split devalues shareholders equity and is kind of a slap in the face... But the long term is to grow the company, the short term is to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageously upset shareholders and the penny stock market forces that wreak havoc on day to day PPS.
It's not illegal and OTC is unregulated... They screwed investors top to bottom, except the new investors who got these new shares at a proper value rather than their equity be reduced like previous investors.
This says nothing! Both Obama and Holder have spoken out against legalization in the past and for Medical, Obama promised in one hand and shat in the other. They may not push federal involvement, but they won't outright make a statement for it either.
SEC says quarterlies no later than 45 days, and MJNA regularly posts exactly 45 days.
SEC says audits no later than 90 days, and unless MJNA changes their tune, I'm not expecting audit/uplisting before Q4, however awesome that would be.
Until then, there is no market maker for MJNA, without real news (not just pumped PRs with no substance), expect prices to slowly fall... I almost bought at .0975 today, but think .095 or .09 is in store for Monday.
I'm liquid right now because it makes no sense for me to just hold, I'm just looking for my opportunity to get back in at a lower point, 7s or 8s depending on the trend.
And no response yet... Chirp, chirp... It's quiet.
Yeah, I'm looking forward, but I see PPS dropping ever so slightly.. I'm out for today, I'm liquid.. If Monday starts an upward trend ill buy and only be out a few shares difference...
Fwiw: I don't know when they went from 600-750, and all my calculations have been based on 599-600... Now that its 950, that's more than 50% increase from my calculations, greater than 33% devaluation.
If it closes above open I might agree, but fundamentals in light of recent news makes me thing the true value is much lower.
If we priced in hype at 600M SO at .14 or so, .10 would be about right for new balanced price given 950M SO..
There is still room for upside, but everybody needs to reevaluate their position and strategy in light of this blatant dilution.
Watch out for sub-.10s, could collapse on us if this support wavers.
Agreed... Still opportunity here, but we need to get liquid and stop chasing. If it hits 6-8¢ its a more appropriate price for S/O to PPS - remember, Q3 rev was $3M, annualized 12M and using the basic market valuation of 5-6x revenues we're looking at 60-72M valuation: need to keep that range in mind when valuing PPS with 950M shares outstanding.
You can always add in some hype if you think the market supports it, but I don't think most pink players know they lost about 30% value.
MJNA recently increased their # of shares outstanding to 950M.
10¢ is no longer a bargain. 6¢ is. They really crushed us without preserving our equity.
AND NO OTHER HAS THE INSANE NUMBER OF SHARES OUTSTANDING AND INSANELY LARGE FLOAT THAT GUARANTEES NO SKYROCKET!!!
Dude. Go away. This stock is overpriced right now.. It needs to go down to meet fundamental revenue valuations. 950M shares outstanding is nothing to pump until the price is reasonable.
I had an order for 47k at .0985 with etrf, but felt that its too close to the precipice. If it breaks .10 it may keep going.. Lots of support at .10. So I'm going stay liquid today unless I see .09
Jimmy: don't get excited, that's retail sales... MJNA would see half or less. Dont forget distributor and retail markups.
But at what margin? That we'll never likely know which much more significantly detailed reports where some operational data can be estimated, still will be a guessing game.
Other question is what is the term for those licensing contracts? One year, 3, 5, 10?
Additionally, what is the current annual manufacturing yield?
That's where you can really start looking at revenue growth, assuming they can sell 100% if their inventory.
A perfectly acceptable side question: what is the shelf life of that product, how long until it starts to break down and it gets pulled from shelves or doesn't leave the warehouse to begin with.
Most of these questions we won't know without insider information, but that 140M or so in revenue is unlikely (don't forget breakage and theft, small but important margins).
It's very promising, but the fact that you can still fail a commercial drug test will tamper most of the enthusiasm, and most Americans will pass until MJ legalization: a few drops or cookies in a social after work environment is not worth losing your job over. (Not talking about Medical prescriptions, just 'legal is all states' usage).
This is huge for a small company... But not explosive..
It depends on the fundamentals... If the business isn't worth the market cap, it will crash after a spike.
Pennies yes.
No real news after the election, with up to a year before the legal stuff is implemented yes.
Regulatory (fed) risks yes.
Mediocre Q2 to Q3 yes. (But we all know its just because of reinvestment for growth).
No, it's just wishful thinking... Somebody always posts high asks and low bids... It's not relevant, near open real asks and bids get placed, just pay attention 5 minutes before as consider your strategy for the opening bell.