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I'm well beyond the short term capital gains threshold, but I guess that only qualifies me as a long with the IRS. What I meant by being suckered was the conflict bewteen the August 15th guidanance and the production worker hours in the MSHA report. Wolverine and I had a whole thread on that issue and he turned out to be right. I like many others took management at their word and assumed that they were reasonably accurate. In acutality the MSHA numbers were a pretty good sign that things weren't going as planned. It was one of several red flags that we chose to ignore.
One of the other signs was the share repurchase PR. It created the illusion that we were profitable and fitted in with the shorts and MM's conspiracy theory which has been a favorite on the board for a long time. "Burn shorty ,burn!,"etc,That was two days befoe the quarter ended and they knew that there was no way that they were going to meet their production goals. That was borderline legal and definitely manipulative.
The additional geotube PR on September 13 created a flurry of speculation and grandiose, wild eyed expectations of plant expansions. I caught that one because there was no need for the expenditure at that time if the current dewatering/filtration system was up to snuff. Again another red flag that was largely ignored.
Mangement had gained a good deal of investor trust because they had met most of the goals of their buisness plan during the last year. Investors felt comfortable with the predictions. All in all, we did get sucked in. Even Robo bought into the expectation game.
I think it's about time that we busted a few myths that are prevealant. First I think it would help if we stop calling PCFG a producing gold miner. That tag should be witheld until we have a least a quarter of uninterrupted production. Fifty ounces in three months is hardly what I would call producing.
None of the resons for the loss of production were predictable . It was a perfect storm of events and I don't think that any of us expect mangement to take the blame for what happened. The dog literally ate their homework. Where they failed to deliver was in preserving their long, hard won investor confidence by keeping us informed in a timely fashion.
As to your theory of dark forces being at work here. If that indeed is true they wouldn't have had to do much since unexpected events and lack of communication did the job for them.
A surprisingly muted response and good analysis. Sometimes you're just dead nuts on inspite of your own bad self. Also thanks for not rubbing too much salt into everybodys' wounds. Don't be a stranger to the board--well, no stranger than you already are. I for one have always appreciated your antics and contrarian view. It has helped keep things real around here. You already know this, but it's worth repeating, "People love to shoot the messenger." Save your pom poms just in case the fat broad sings. \V/_ (Ha!) ;)
I've been a Chicago Cub fan all of my life so this is nothing new to me. I'm in @ the mid .02's so I'm not overly concerned at this point. I think that you're overstating the case a bit. just as those who keep saying we have a producing gold mine are on the other side of the coin. I wouldn't call 50 ounces a producing gold mine. What I'm concerned about is the lack of commumications from management. They worked very hard to establish investor confidence over the past year and pissed it away with this 10Q. I think it's fair that most of us have a sense of betrayl. Personally I got sucked into the myth of production enough to try and massage the MSHA numbers into the Aug 15th PR. I trusted their projected production numbers more than the unbiased MSHA numbers. Actually those numbers should have been the first indicator that all was not well. They have one more quarter to try and get it right . If they don't they'll see a massive bailout of investors that will make this week's action seem like child's play. If you're pissed send them an e-mail.
Robotrader, investment advisor of the hour; ain't life grand! \V/_
Ha! :)
Don't worry we've got Bundy doing that for us already. \V/_
Another indicator that this might be the case is the failed pump. Too much suspended material shortens pump life consideraably. When the geo tubes were first installed people were predicting 3, 4, 5 times increased capacity, I never did buy that. When the natural history museum in Washington,D.C. built an artificial reef for their acquarium they designed a filter system for it that was designed to filter twice the expected flow. It turned out that the reef produced so much bio mass that they had to increase the filter system by a factor of eight. They had to build a warehouse to house the new system. This is a new technology so this isn't unexpected. They may be thinking about running the tubes in tandem to reduce the suspended particles. Another indicator that the existing setup is performing below expectations is that they are stock piling gravel to be processed. When I ran the numbers about what they could mine per day with the existing rental equipment, I came up with 1,800 yards per day which works out to 120,000 yards per quarter. With the additional tubes and a growing stock pile they'll have to increase the plant's footprint which hopefully won't require more permitting.
Let me preface this with the statement that it's pure conjecture. I've always wondered why they were adding the 8 new geotubes at this juncture. Most of the board's speculation was that it was to allow for plant expansion. My suspicion is that the existing two geotubes are not enough to to handle the current plant's capacity. That would explain their dropping the maximum from 200 to 150 yards per hour. Also, the two bags can't be used all of the time. They have to be emptied and serviced when they are full. My thinking is that once they got the plant up and running in mid July that they realized the two existing tubes were inadequate to meet their 120,000 yards per quarter goal.
Well done. \V/_
Sometimes this stock is like going to bed with Zsa Zsa Gabor and waking up with Ernest Borgnine.
Goodbye.... \V/_
Morning, Wolverine. Would you mind posting your e-mail for suggestions? What did you come up with for a price on the gold sold? I get $1,422.18 per ounce.
OK, this is preliminary based on the limitited information available. They processed (screened) 12,000 yards during the quarter. We know from the Aug 15th PR that they processed 6,500 yards in July producing 30 ounces of gold. That leaves 5,500 yards and 20 ounces of gold to account for. The Aug 15th PR says they mined 19 of the 20 available days. That adds up to 152 hours which matches with the 150 hours in the current 10Q. There's an anomally here with the yards processed and the hours worked. Putting that aside, if you take the 10Q at face value, i.e., 12,000 yards processed and 50 ounces recovered, the recovery rate is .13 grams per yard. Hardly an outstanding result. The number is skewed because of the mixing of the mud flow and pay gravels. I'm wondering where all of this talk of great recovery numbers is coming from.
Almost all of the processing was done in July and August. The NDEP shut them down in late August to fix the original tubes and they're still waiting for permission to restart the mill using the new geo tubes.
They had about $180,000 in cash on the first of October. That may not be enough to meet payroll and other expenses while they wait for permission to run the mill with the new geo tubes. They've been pretty creative about raising money in the past, so it may not be as big an issue as some perceive it to be. However, it's out there lurking and needs immediate attention. Let's hope it doesn't require significant dilution.
Did they drop the ball or was the ball dropped on them. It's probably a little of both. It's interesting that they announced the share buy back program on September the 28th a month after NDEP had shut them down. That smacks of stinky pinky manipulation. The obviously didn't have enough cash to implement it.
Here's a question for Airdale? When you were there were they running the mill? My recollection is that they were. If they were; it's likely that they had fixed the problem with the original two geo tubes by the time you got there.
If there's going to be a PR it will most likely come when they have permission to start up the eight new geo tubes.
As to the use of PR's, no one expects them to tell us when a contractor farts. What is expected is that when significant events occur like a plant shut down for more than a day or two, investors have a reasonable expectation to be informed in a timely fashion whether it's good or bad.
Thanks for the PM. Without more information it's not really possible to make any projections. It looks like they're getting $1,400 per ounce from the refinery. Who knows what the recovery rate is for the mined gravel. It would appear that they're pre-screening the gravel at the mine site. As I suspected, the 8 additional geotubes are necessary for the current process. The company got hit with a perfect storm, NDEP demands, pump failure, truck accident, performance below expectations, equipment delivery delays. In the near term they're in deep kimchi without additional financing. $180,000 won't last long. Overall we're a little worse off than we were at the start of the third quarter. Wolverine is right, an e-mail campaign might get Mitch to cowboy up and give investors the low down. The real crisis is one of confidence. We'll have to put up with a lot of, "I told you so," from the peanut gallery. My resopnce to that is, "Even a blind hog finds an acorn now and again." We'll just have to put up with the instant gurus for a while. Last post for the day, let's see what happens tomorrow. \V/_
Thanks fox saved me some looking. What's your take so far?
The 50 million took two days.
There was some earlier talk about prescreening at the mine site. I took the screening to mean that this was what they were doing. I'm not even going to play with the numbers until we have more information and I'm a lot less pissed. One thing for certain, though, is that they're going to have a hard time meeting their 480,000 yearly goal. The other big question is will they have enough operating capital to cover expenses? How about the CPA types on the board doing a bit of digging in the 10Q. Where is the Blackfire deal money reported?
I don't expect that, but informing investors of material events good and bad is important if you want to be transparent. Up to this point transpency was one of this stock's biggest attractions. The loan conversion was a material event. They were quick to announce the NDEP approval of the new geotubes, but failed to report the NDEP's modifications. Sounds like cherry picking to me.
Fair assessment. They dropped the ball.
Well now we know why the production man hours were so low. You were right. Let's wait until they issue a PR and see if we can get a consesus on fourth quarter production. The recovery rate was low low because it included what was left from the sh$t pile as JT would say. This business about share buy back is just pure BS, they had $181,905 in cash at the end of September. It's going to be a race to get enough cash inflow from production to pay for operating expenses without additional financing or dilution. \V/_
What has to do with mangement is that they failed to inform investors of significant events in a timely fashion.
Have fun, just don't do any math while you're imbibing. Brown side out. Semper Fi. \V/_
Hate to bust your bubble, but the predicted recovery rate was .4 not .04. The decimal needs to be moved one place to the left. The recovery rate from the numbers in the 10Q is 0.1296 grams per cubic yard which sucks. They need to get a PR out soon to shore up investor confidence
Well we're finally there. Turns out we arrived at Robo's dumpster. I'm not sure where the good recovery numbers are coming from, I come up with 0.1296 grams per yard which sucks when compared with the predicted .4. The dog ate the homework on this one. Short term it's a mess. Long term we're probably OK. I wish they'd have been more upfront with us when the setbacks occurred rather than waiting for the 10K. There's also the additional shares issued. They've got $182,000 in cash so it's going to be a race to get enough from production to meet the costs. Turns out Wolverine was right about the man hours and the equipment; I owe him one. It'll take a day or two for the dust to settle and some better numbers to make any real predictions. One nice thing is that some day traders got burned. Back to black and blue for the color of the day.
MT, what's the color scheme for the day? The kids in the back seat are getting restless. Let's hope Robo doesn't mistake the brass rail for the stripper pole. \V/_ :)
More like, "Practice, duh."
Obviously it wasn't enough, besides you have a sense of humor which some people do not have. (HA!) \V/_ ;)
Check his posting record and you will see a distinct pattern to them. Some people get off stirring the pot. The 43 posts on this board are provocative rather than informative. If we can resist the temptation to answer, he'll go away soon enough. The posting barrage over the past two days gives some credence to the MM agent provocateur scenario. Too bad there isn't a validity check in the TOS. \V/_
Do Not Feed the Troll{s)
Twenty nine posts in two days, that should say something. If you can't stand it, hit the Iggy button. If you can stand it don't reply. If he doesn't get a response he'll go away.
Thanks for the PM. You need to post the info on the board. It's out of hand already. \V/_
Coming from you, that's really funny.
This is getting ridiculous. Too many people trying to pee in the other's boot. It's getting to sound like Miss Fuzzbottom's Kindergarten around here. Too many egos on high horses jousting with each other. Reminds me of an Oklahoma lawyer who'd argue with a fence post. \V/_
Actually he's not generous enough. Your original trip convinced me and others that this was a legitimate investment. You don't need to go. Save the money and buy more shares.
Working for the Chinese Nationalists selling them black market tires.
You have Scottrade, right? Has the extension shown up on your news bar? Hasn't on mine. Seriously thinking about moving my account. If we have good news, you can save on gas money. No more drive bys. Speaking of which where's Dunphy? \V/_
Isn't that a ittle condescending? True yes, but.... :)
I've given up on predicting what the short term share price will be. What I do know is, if the dd is at all correct, it's definitely under priced. Turn off the L2, wait for the 10Q, and enjoy the BS flipper posts. \V/_
It's around .15 to .2 grams/yard depending on the price of gold you plug in to the equation. Another variable is the the number of yards produced. Hope that helps. \V/_
Good post as usual uwf, but its probably falling on deaf ears.
How's this for a conspiracy theory? Mitch was in clandestine negotiations with Chinese agents who want to convert BRCM into an atomic weapons test site. But the Chinese Nationalists got wind of the deal and hired Carhauler to steal all of the tires to squelch the deal. The FBi found out about it and seized all of the company records. So they can't file on time because the books are in Washington.
God luck with getting rid of them since they are close to owning a controlling interest of the O/S. Their overall performance has been great. The missed deadline is a mistake, but in the larger picture is not necessarily disasterous. I'm not real happy with the delay, but I'm not running for the door either. Do your dd before you run off at the mouth.