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Hard for us to meet those guidelines when they are doing the profit sweep. A judge is about to go constitutional on those technocrats.
Having been in this position before I want to share a story with you. Its a story of a guy that had 10000 shares of LVS and was convinced to sell because the stock had no chance of making it. I was suckered into selling LVS during its long rehab back to health. I missed out on a windfall of $. If I had not been browsing the boards, listening to others tell me the stock is worthless, I would have held it. Many here are in that same boat. Holding a stock worth two bucks, hearing the same worthless banter. Once you have been through it, it seems comical. I see the same comments on the FNMA boards I did on the LVS boards a few years ago. Anyhow, wanted to share a personal story that has relevance to the FNMA board. Im sure if you live long enough, you will see it again on other investments. Good luck longs.
Most of the old timers have seen alot of ups and downs. Not alot gets me excited. I have owned this stock when it moved very little for almost a year. Get upset sell, then buy back. Its really been an unconventional security to own. I have a block of stocks on my phone and noticed one day that it was trading above its range. I think it was around .35 cent. It had been trading around .30 for months. I bought some...not alot but enough to make me look at it. Then, it continued to rise. I averaged up. Then averaged up again...by then the run up to five was on. I sold all the way up. Then bought again as it ran back down. My average is somewhere in the dollar range. I honestly think this will be a game changer for many. I purposefully bought it in my Tax free Roth account. So, that said, I will be a hero or a zero when it plays out. Enjoy the ride, I hope to see you in Vegas during the Malt and cigar hour.
Lets discuss our new LLC. We own a new LLC. Its a joint venture with Freddie and Fannie. I guess we are now competing with AIG on insuring home loans. It seems kind of odd that we are insuring 90% of the market. I would assume that we would insure our own mortgages firstly. I wonder if they will let free market forces determine what insurer gets the contract? This LLC will be the fall guy going forward. If another meltdown occurs, they will dissolve the LLC and move forward. That is my thoughts. However, if they do that, the GSES will take the right off which would put the Government again backing mortgages. I dont see anyway around having the Government as a back stop. I for one will not loan large sums of money at 4.0% for thirty years. Most individuals would think that crazy. So, who will? The GSEs will remain. IMO. Had to go through that thought loop...I guess my OCD is kicking in.
I don't think you have to do much reasearch to see this stock is highly manipulated. Once you have accepted that, holding becomes easier even during political raids from congressmen with self serving agendas.
Z, Here is the answer to your question.
1.2 billion shares outstanding.
Thats 1.2 billion parts of a whole.
The entire float could be purchased with pocket change of a large fund.
Low trading Volume means longs are not selling.
Low trading Volume means those 1.2 billion shares are harder to get at lower prices.
Every effort is being put forth to separate those from their ownership status.
All of this is phase 1 in the program.
Phase 2 will be much more intense.
Expect, a confirmation of winddown through media coverage.
Expect, a date given to winddown and replace.
Expect, many will sell with hope being in short demand.
Expect, the smoke to clear, and shares to be redeemed for new shares on a 1:1 basis. At this point, many will be kicking themselves in the a#$ that they sold.
They will take you to the brink and you will feel all is lost, then roll out a plan that matches exactly what many here have suspected would happen. The problem is they will convert many longs out of fear. They did this once and it worked. I suspect they will rerun this episode again. The key is to educate longs on their past actions so that when they play these games we do not break or fold to the pressure. Epic battle going on, the fight is worth the victory ahead. When this much money is at stake, do not expect to get a large profit without some major mind-$%#@@$$% along the way.
On the flipside, I could be wrong and we get a settlement from the courts in a couple months. If that happens, you can rag me about it in Vegas.
401k
Negative ghostrider, 401K will be present. However, I will never be rich enough to spend 800 bucks on a Malt. Even if it is Johnny Walker private reserve. Ill buy a 15 dollar glass of Glenn Livet and put 785 bucks on the craps table.
Petey,
I think a formal apology and a return of profit sweeps with 10% compounded interest would make me feel whole again. How about you? I would forgo the punitive damages/criminal for the above in the next thirty days.
When I start my world travels...I will look you up.
I think at this point DeMarco is violating his fiduciary duties by not releasing Freddie Mac. May be time to legally pursue him personally. I don't think it would be a stretch to say it is willful and intent to do harm to shareholders if not released in a timely fashion. His own public statements backs this. I think it would be an easy case to win. No one is above the law, not even politicians and technocrats.
I wonder what % of the float we own collectively?
The volume seem strangely Low.
Had the markets been operating with out manipulation...we would have went to 5 dollars. I do hope someone goes to prison for this malice. Calling the SEC in the morning.
Everyone that owns shares got bent over today. Period. Its no different than Obama coming out and saying we need to end the GSEs. I have come to the conclusion that some powerful people are making things happen to manipulate the market. The Feds are involved. Finra is a Federal Agency, the president is involved, Senators fake up a bill that has no chance of getting passed, what gives? They want you to sell. They need you to sell. If this plays out, it could be the largest transfer of wealth in a 100 years. Dont think that the banks are rolling over or those like WB are taking this lightly. This is big boys play ground. Im beginning to think the game is seriously rigged. Holding...long but feeling screwed.
Can anyone remember in all their trading years the OTC shutting down for no reason other than technical difficulties? I remember 9-11 the markets was down three weeks. That was a different senerio. One last thing to ponder...I bet FNMA was the largest trading stock on the OTC. What other stock could have locked them up? Also, it came on the morning of earnings....I think we may have group manipulating the Security for personal gain.
Need to keep OTC closed until some of the fnma orders are cancelled. Jmho
No shares available....imo
My trading platform is locked up....something crashed.
FNMA up 801% YTD.
That would act as a hedge against future losses with the punitive phase coming...
I think your right.
Maybe a little low...3.29 my guess.
I think FMCC could pass up FNMA on DTA news. I have asked this question before...What would happen if one was released and the other not? I personally want the two stocks to uncouple and trade on their own standing. That needs to happen.
We have alot to look forward to this week and the board is covered up with peeps worrying about two kids on Fool pushing a bad story. Bloomberg and WSJ was doing the samething earlier this year. I just wish we could have a constructive conversation around earnings...Thats what will drive the PPS not a hack news report from a freelancer.
Upcoming events...
Earnings
disposition on lawsuit
FMCC DTA news
Netzero talk in media after earnings
Potential FNMA DTA round 2
Settlements continuing only 4 so far
Punitive damages from BAC
Libor settlements- quick settlement, we got a smoking gun.
Blink and you will miss it.
Foreshadowing...
The simple answer is let the borrower put up more capital. 20% sounds about right....harder to walk away from your investment if you personally have skin in the game. Also it forces you to buy a home that your can afford. No money down, no income, no problem days are long gone....thats why we are able to buy FMCC at two bucks. Let the borrower take more risk, thats the answer. I cant understand why no one gets that.
I think the Government will provide some guidelines on new home loans...like 20% down, proof of employement etc. Leave everything else the same. The problem was not on the GSE side, it was on the originator side. Thats why we have the problem we have now. No one wants to blame the banks.
What has changed? Why a drop of more than .30 cent then a gain...? No reason at all. Zombies trade, longs retire. Happy Halloween.
FNMA up 849% YTD.
FNMA up 841% YTD.
We have not even scratched the surface.
Your numbers are assuming that the Treasury will convert Warrants. I dont think they will. If that does not happen, you can take your PPS and multiply it by 4.
Dont be surprised to hear some news on ending the GSE charters. That will be the last tear down on the PPS before they release it issue shares to old shareholders. Just like they did with Sallie Mae. Many will sell out of fear. Thats when those in the know will gobble up your shares knowing that the new share structure will be a 1:1 share. I expect one more shake down before they seal the deal. Thats my humble opinion. I just think there is too much money riding on this not to bring this thing to its knees one more time. Im all in on my trading account, with no intentions of being shook out. I just know that our elected officials are self serving. Reminds me of the 80s soviet union.
If you were a congressman, how could you profit from this mess? Let that roll around in your head for while.
On or about Nov 12th.
March north until earnings.
Drivers:
Reform-Cant pass anything major involving FNF.
NetZero-clean bill of health.
Legal challenge-FHFA and Treasury feeling heat.
Huge profits-Most profitable company in the world?
All coming together in a short time period. I dont think most here realize how quick this thing can stack cash. Quick profits, life time of regrets selling. Im letting mine ride on auto pilot. Account set to reinvest dividends. Best of luck...next four weeks will be the biggest rush you have ever had in your trading career.
Add me to long list. Miffed I was not on it.
Can the FHFA convert warrants without telling anyone? Add to the share structure. Im surprised that this has not blown up by now. I would be seriously upset if they were selling shares into the runs. They being the government without telling anyone.
Its several times larger. Many like myself are not playing for a higher PPS. We are playing for Dividends that one can retire on. Big difference.
Thanks for your reply. This stock has taught me alot about how politicians make money on the stock market. Remember when the PPS was reaching 5 in May...Obama came out and said we need to end them? Manipulation all the way to the top. Trust...I only trust me.