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I'm voting for the authorized share increase but against the Board members. As long as the company is a stand alone they need financial flexibility through more shares when and if needed. However, it's because of poor Board oversight that got us in the dilemma we are in. For too long they let O'Connor run the company like the Wild West, lining his own pockets and burning cash inneficiently and without focus, like it grew on trees. They need to take accountability and step aside. To his defense, Lombardo was thrown into a mismanaged mess, so while I would have like to see a deal by now I don't know enough to make conclusion. And just as important Lombardo has not lied to shareholders or done anything ethically questionable like O'Connor did in his first year at the company.
At 8, Amgen could buy ADXS for half the value of the potential future milestones of the Amgen and Sellas deals.
Imvestors who poured more than 200m into the company to recap it at an average price of $12 A share have lost almost 80% of their investment. Will there be a kill shot that wipes out the remaining 20% to zero? That's why I think selling the company now is the best chance to salvage the value destroyed instead of continuing the cycle of more dilution, bloated headcount, unearned bonuses, etc.
The further shareholder value erosion under his watch also is money lost by somebody's father/grandfather. Nothing against age. It's just one factor to question if he's not getting the job done.
TL inherited a late stage portfolio with negotiations already underway and four BP collaborations already in place and potential conditional approval in Europe in a year (if he ever files the application.)
Investor survey, which do you think will come first?
1) Lombardo delivers a value added big pharma deal with upfront cash to Advaxis that addresses our cash concern and gets us back up to the teens closer to our fair value in the low $20s.
2) Lombardo transitions from independent living to an assisted living facility.
One could also question whether someone is a shareholder who seems to be get pleasure when the stock drops and takes jabs at folks with skin in the game losing money.
You've got to wonder what exaclty has the Board been thinking letting a temporary semi retired CEO stay in place for 8 months doing very little at such a critical time when cash is dwindling and investor confidence is in the gutter. Frankly, Board positions meet generally quarterly so the reason the ADXS Board has not had a concrete plan the last eight months is probably the same reason they let the last CEO raid the company for personal financial gain the last four years: it's a periodic meeting to them for free shares so they don't really care about shareholder value.
investors already bailed, which has made the challenges at hand worse.
Well most of our large
Eight months of wasted time at the comonay by our semi retired deal maker who hasn't been able to strike a deal while the market has hit all time high and biotech deal making is surging, yet all he can deliver after eight months of silence is a request for more authorized shares.
You are new here so your cost basis is much lower. Congrats. Nonetheless, it's concerning why a company with so much promise has seen its value collapse. I thought and still believe a good portion of the reason is because of the poor misaligned management of the former CEO. But I would think eight months since he was fired, we would have seen some kind of turnaround but it's only lost more value. So naturally I'm questioning my own judgment. Since we have seen no deal for our late stage asset, the question remains why and whether potential partners don't see much value in AXAL.
Yes its concerning the stock has lost more than 75% of its value over four years from the $12 price paid to recap the company with more than $200m. It's also concerning that our supposed deal making CEO appears semi retired and hasn't struck anything going on 8 months and more than a year since the company said it was seeking an EU. I'm not sure what to make of the request for more shares. If it's part of a pending deal that's good, but it could be our fearless leader having no sense of urgency over the last 8 months them breaking the silence by realising the company is running low on cash so he'll take the easy route and do an offering on very poor terms.
Exactly, anyone who actually owns this stock (that is the operative requirement) should naturally be concerned about their investment given the magnitude of the shareholder value erosion, coupled by it has been more than a year since the company stated it was actively seeking an EU commercialization deal and we've heard nothing and recently were asked for another 40% increase in authorized shares at a time when the stock has fallen to levels it was more than four years ago when Tom Moore was CEO and the company had debt and little cash and few options. I've been optimistic, but as you said at a certain point reality kicks in. I'm still optimistic the request for an increase in shares could be related to a partner deal involving upfront cash and an equity buy-in, but historically ADXS' management's track record is filled with much more disappointment that positive delivery. If there is not deal and Lombardo does a deal-less dilution at the current sickening price, it begs the question what exactly the F has our 70 year old leader been doing the last seven months? Or even worse, it begs the question in today's rapid advancement of immunotherapy is our platform simply not as promising as we all have thoughts as owners of the company.
I hate to admit it, the longer time passes with radio silence and no deal delivered by Lombardo, the more likely you are right.
It was on the business update call I believe. They said the first patient start of dosing was delayed from 4q because they were amending the partnership agreement related to manufacturing.
Agreed, but if there is not a deal pending involving an equity stake, not sure why the need to increase authorized shares. I think the logical deal candidate is Amgen especially since we know the current deal is being "amended". Time will tell, but unfortunately time is not our friend now considering how much cash DOC blew through without creating value.
Yes considering the company has stated it has actively been looking for a deal for the last year and we know there is only enough cash to take us to Nov this year. If there is a deal in which the partner buys shares at $3 it's not great (ie the last time there was a dilution was at $13.50) but it's much better than a dilution at $3 without a partner deal. A partner deal similar to Amgen would include upfront cash, so would give the stock a need boost of investor confidence, whereas doing a another dilution without a deal would reflect poorly on the company.
I expected we would have seen a deal development on AXAL by now, given Lombardo has been in the position and quiet for now seven months coupled with the company's public statement in Jan 2017 it was seeking a Europe commcercilization deal. But we've heard nothing and the latest material development was only that Lombardo wants to increase authorized shares, putting the threat of more dilution on the table. Hopefully, there is a deal about to be announced in which the partners pays and upfront cash payment plus equity investment. In that case, I could understand the need for more authorized shares, because a deal comparable to the Amgen deal would with an equity stake would use close to all the remaining shares available so they would need more authorized shares generally for the future. If Lombardo has not been able to strike any deal over the last seven months for our late stage AXAL program or for HOT or HER2, that would be disappointing (and what the market seems to be pricing) and it would likely mean one of two things, neither of which is good: 1) Lombardo is past his prime and not effective, or 2) there is no demand among potential partners to strike a monetary deal with us on any of our franchises. I'm not sure which is worse - probably the second bullet point, because that reflects our platform and if there is no demand currently with M&A on fire and billions coming home in repatriated biotech cash, then maybe we are overestimating the effectiveness of our platform or given all the management mis-steps other technologies are surpassing us.
Any guesses on how long the Board is going to allow Tony ("Do Nothing") Lombardo to stay at the company? Frankly, at this point I would welcome a hostile takeover bid. A $10 bid would be approved by the majority of owners IMO given the poor management of the company. The longer things drag on without a licensing deal or sale of any of our franchises or sale of the company, there is only one party who benefits: ADXS management. Certainly not the company's owners or patients.
Thanks for sharing, very encouraging. It's been a while since the NEO trial was delayed because of amending the deal related to manufacturing. I wouldn't be surprised if there was more to it, such as Amgen expanding the deal to include HOT as well and taking a bigger equity stake in ADXS plus upfront cash, which would address our cash issue and give a much needed boost in imvestor confidence.
Conditional approval alone doesn't mean much, as it depends on what kind of commercialzation deal TL is able to strike when he files the application. Case in point is PETX. We finally got conditional approval but it did nothing for our share price because of the weak deal DO struck with PETX.
Go back and read the January 2017 business update.
Not true, ADXS does not have a distribution arm or capability so they have to partner. The question is what terms cam our deal maker negotiate.
JB, I would also ads ADXS in its January 2017 business update said it was actively seeking commercialzation deal particularly related to Europe commercialzation. If they file the Europe application without a deal in place, it will reduce their leverage IMO because the minute they file the clock is on then a potential partner can wait knowing ADXS will be forced to strike a deal before approval within a year. Hopefully the holdout on filing is because TL is negotiating a deal with upfront cash before filing.
That says it all, the stock has fallen to the lows of the Tom Moore era when we were much less advanced clinically, relied on toxic finanxig and had a much smaller pipeline with no partners. It says a lot about the way the company has been managed and deals struck over the last four years (i.e. the $250 million in shareholder value destroyed).
Island, I'll say this from having been here since Sept 2009. O'Connor did a number of things at ADXS that were misaligned with shareholder interests and showed himself to be a liar and willing to act unethically to line his own pockets. In defense of Lombardo, I've seen nothing he's done that would question his character or alignment with the owners of the company, unlike O'Connor. I think with Lombardo, the question is simply what exaclty has has done over the last 7 months while the stock has dropped another 50%+.
That's an optimistic interpretation for the request for the 30m additional shares. I could see your theory as possible, although past actions would indicate simply another dilution at an unfavorable price. One positive point to add to the shareholder friendly outcome is that the NEO start is on hold because the company said it is amending the Amgen deal related to manufacturing. I could see the delay also related to expanding the deal to another indication such as HOT or AXAL.
Bourbon, what bothers me is that apparently because of the lack of work done over the last 7 months Lombardo may view his role at ADXS as a part time job during retirement. Biotech M&A is on fire, markets hitting record highs, billions of repatriated cash coming home from abroad, and after 7 months of silence all Lombardo can deliver is a request for more shares to dilute us further on unfavorable terms.
There is no sense of urgency at "the best place to work in New Jersey" because as long as the company's owners keep funding payroll and bonuses are given liberally and detached from performance, all is good.
I think Lombardo needs to step up and deliver an accretive deal with upfront cash soon, or else retire. He's 70 - too old to be wasting our time and his if he's not adding value at ADXS. He could be enjoying retirement and we could have a CEO who gets us back to the $12 recapitalization cost basis and if we are fortunate adds value/creates an ROI from there.
Exaclty, the XBI is not down more than 50% in the last seven months.
Agreed Smasse, $12 is the average recapitalization cost basis of the company in which investors poured more than $200 million over the last four years. Until management gets us back to that breakeven level, they don't deserve any bonus awards. Then let's see how much value they can create (i.e., on top of $12) to judge their effectiveness.
Agreed, I think we could see a material deal announced by 2/9. Lombardo has been quiet for seven months. He needs to deliver something of value for investors to trust that he will use another 30 million shares he requested wisely. So far, it's unclear because we've seen more delays under his watch and no deals of any sort delivered. There's not a lot to be confident about with him so far, which is why I agree the 2/9 date is not arbitrary and we may see news that justifies Lombardo's quietness over the last seven months.
Fundamental question: why should ADXS owners trust and give ADXS management another 30 million shares when 1) over the last four years management has shown they are poor stewards of shareholder capital and focused disproportionately on lining their own pockets at the expense of shareholder interests, and 2) Lombardo has been at the helm now for seven months and has shown very little in terms of changing our direction, more delays (on NEO and Europe filing) and no Europe deal (despite the company publicly stating in January 2017 one of its 2017 business objectives was to strike a Europe commercialization deal).
At this critical juncture of the company having blown through more than $200 million in the last four years while shareholder value has eroded by 75%, coupled with the market at all time highs and biotech M&A on fire, coupled with our late stage, attractive pipeline, why not organize a group among our shareholders, led by institutional investors such as Adage, to put the company on the auction block and engage potential buyers like Amgen, etc., directly. Given ADXS' dismal track record of management mis-steps and mis-alignment with owner interests, there's not a lot to be confident with in handing over another 30 million shares to this management team and letting them continue to run the company independently. My bet is we could currently sell the company for at least $500 million ($12 share price net of cash), given our pipeline and deals with Amgen and Sellas with potential milestone payments over $800 million.
Unfortunately, anyone looking to buy ADXS would like at a multiple of the current price for a sales price. Hopefully Lombardo will be able to get the price up to more fair value before that happens, unless there is a hostile takeover effort to acquire the company cheaply. For better or worse a company's current price is it's currency in negotiations.
Out of the gate O'Connor was weak. Back when our AXAL Phase 2 produced best ever survival, instead of shrinking a global devolpment deal with significant upfront cash like ADRO did, Doc's approach was to give away regional rights in several deals with nothing upfront enabling him to sell shares in offerings. He thought was he would strike weak regional deals in order to hold out until later to license our core US and Europe markets for big bucks. However, as time went by ADXS introduced a next generation DUAL, which in effect raised the question why would anyone pay top dollar for AXAL when DUAL was now being tested in combo trials. He failed to monetize AXAL and had a confusing unfocused strategy, but the whole effort was self serving because it bought more time for him to take as much shareholder assets for himself...until investors and the Board (asleep behind the wheel) finally put an end to it. The damage was done so here we sit with 75% of shareholder value destroyed.
Let's not get greedy. Considering how mismanaged Advaxis has been, if Lombardo is able to sell the company for our $30 high from 2015/$1.5 billion that would be a great outcome especially given we are now 75% below the average $12 price investors poured over $200 million to recalitalize the company over the last four years.
All the more shows ADXS should be able to strike a material BP deal. M&A has picked up, the market is near record highs, let's see what you're made of Lombardo.
He's also changed his tune regarding the RSUs and management compensation. Before he always said investors didn't care about the overly generous non-performance based policies management put in place to pay themselves and all the free misaligned shares didn't impact the share price. Now he's saying RSUs are not good and options are better. I guess it took O'Connor's firing and Lombardo saying the company needed to tighten up fiscally to change his mind to the view many of us have had all along.