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Could we have a "dollar day" today?
13G just filed, BlackRock now owns 7.42%, or over 11 million shares..
Harvey did his usually excellent job today.. The main thing for me is that we will have some '113 efficacy in the second half of 2012.. If as good as expected, this will be the defining moment for Ariad
FDA Sets Path for Biotech Drug Copies
Goes both ways...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204642604577213143424515820.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
bellweather, thanks for correcting my logic. For now on, I'll rely on your factual knowledge, and less on my memory recall. Carry on.
Well, without going back and digging, just from memory, I thought the "PR of the DATE of when they were to announced earnings was in the first 14 days of the month after the quarter. We still have a few days. Your March 10th was the release of earnings, not the date that they said March 10th was going to be the earnings date.
Still no announcement of the earning call for Q4 2011 and 2011 results.. This is uncharacteristic of the Harv..
We may have a ruff ride for awhile.. sector rotations..
Ariad usually announces the date of when they will announce their Q4 and full year 2011 results by now.. In fact, the earnings call itself is usually in the first 14 days of February as I remember.
What are they cooking up with this delay?
So Peter, does that mean that you are relatively comfortable in the FDA approval of Rida?
This is the item that worries me on Ariad: is 3 week PFS good enough with Rida?
http://www.elsevierbi.com/publications/the-pink-sheet-daily/2012/2/3/fda-panel-review-of-merckariads-sarcoma-drug-could-hinge-on-clinical-significance-of-progressionf
And, what's after 16 you say?
Slap down....
"Management indicated (we highly recommend clients watch this part, if nothing else) it has no
intention diversifying outside of oncology “for the foreseeable future”, nor does it have “any plans” or
efforts to in-license or “go find [additional assets]”.
I expect this should put to rest the Bellium chatter.. No deal.
Yeah, it is an old video. They recently posted the older video of the chief scientists that is on Ariad's home page on to YouTube. They just added Berger's as well.. They are spreading the gospel of Ariad..
A drug recently approved by the FDA, and no chatter here??? Why is that?
It could go either way.. We've had an incredible run..
While this is directly related to CRIS, it speaks volumes for Ariad's chance of Rida approval:
Less is more (and faster too)
For oncology companies that have nothing to do with hedgehog or basal-cell cancer, the approval is nothing but good news. Erivedge was given an accelerated approval based on a phase 2 trial from just 96 patients. Given the lack of treatment options for basal cell carcinoma, there was no placebo control and the doctors and patients knew they were getting the drug.
There was a fairly robust response, but single-arm phase 2 trials aren't exactly the most convincing way to prove that the drug works. That the FDA is willing to accept it is good news for other drugmakers trying to go the same route for unmet needs. Onyx Pharmaceuticals' multiple myeloma treatment carfilzomib for instance.
And it's not like the FDA hemmed and hawed about whether to approve Erivedge. The PDUFA date for the decision wasn't until March 8. Let's hope the FDA continues to work at the quick pace.
While this is directly related to CRIS, it speaks volumes for Ariad's chance of Rida approval:
Less is more (and faster too)
For oncology companies that have nothing to do with hedgehog or basal-cell cancer, the approval is nothing but good news. Erivedge was given an accelerated approval based on a phase 2 trial from just 96 patients. Given the lack of treatment options for basal cell carcinoma, there was no placebo control and the doctors and patients knew they were getting the drug.
There was a fairly robust response, but single-arm phase 2 trials aren't exactly the most convincing way to prove that the drug works. That the FDA is willing to accept it is good news for other drugmakers trying to go the same route for unmet needs. Onyx Pharmaceuticals' multiple myeloma treatment carfilzomib for instance.
And it's not like the FDA hemmed and hawed about whether to approve Erivedge. The PDUFA date for the decision wasn't until March 8. Let's hope the FDA continues to work at the quick pace.
Five Form 4 filings ah.. Option tome..
Without question, I would purchase Ariad
This is a gift.. Let the momentum crowd leave, like they are now, and this thing can slowly start to climb.. The revenue stream maybe small on a percentage basis, but the number of patients with this cancer is staggering, and growing every day..
Here is an Excellent Lung cancer web site/blog, where Dr. West has a discussion on '113 with a patient with ALK +
http://blog.lungevity.org/2012/01/13/mechanisms-of-resistance-to-alk-inhib/
If they have the cash, going public now with just ph1 results would be a waste. However, AFTER positive ph2 results...now you can extract some value from Mr. Market.. I hope that is what they can do..
Thanks Peter.. Agreed. CC hype..
Oh my..............we are in fluff land..
Illumina shares rose nearly 43% to $53.89 in afternoon trading, roughly 20% more than Roche's $44.50 a share bid, indicating that investors expect an increase. While Roche's offer may be "opportunistic" as Illumina's management argues in a statement, the share surge could reflect an expectation that other suitors will enter the bidding fray now that the process is public.
"We are increasing our price target for [Illumina] to $49.50 to reflect the potential for a broader sale process following Roche's recent announcement of a hostile bid," wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Muken in a Wednesday note. Price target increases by analysts across Wall Street pegged Illumina's value as high $70, citing the potential for a bid increase and an overall need to boost earnings multiple-based valuations for the San Diego-based genomics and diagnostics specialist.
The big story of the day is what will happen with Roche's bid. As the Illumina management weighs whether it will recommend the offer to its shareholders, other interested parties could jump in and push up the offer price.
Even though this is from one of those Seeking Alpha blogs, I think it sums up the market action in Ariad nicely:
Ariad Pharma (ARIA); Continually rebounds to the upside after almost every down session. The speculation for this stock is enormous and mega funds are all over it. From it's impressive pipeline of Onocological drugs to it's Strong CEO Dr. Harvey Burger, there is not much not to like about this trade to the upside.
Ah, but we have Cramer at 6:00 PM LOL
This past Ariad legal issue just will not go away as it is now legal history..
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bloomberg-bna-announces-the-publication-of-the-third-edition-of-electronic-and-software-patents-law-and-practice-137770733.html
I was going to log into Motley Fool and post the PR on the secondary stock offering that Ariad just completed, to update that FOOL, but I don't have my password..
Nothing like a little gasoline on the fire:
http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/2012/01/19/ariad-an-acquisition-target.html
Decline in short interest:
Down approx 2 million from Dec 15 to Dec 30
TOP 50 DECREASES
Ticker
Symbol Company Dec. 30 Dec. 15 Change
=============================================================================
QQQ POWERSH-QQQ 66,629,158 103,152,327 -36,523,169
AMGN AMGEN INC 19,377,253 38,611,875 -19,234,622
ORCL ORACLE CORP 19,431,335 28,790,327 -9,358,992
NWSA NEWS CORP-A 29,836,485 39,096,345 -9,259,860
CHRS CHARMING SHOPPES 13,779,703 18,772,165 -4,992,462
RIMM RESEARCH IN MOTI 37,523,671 42,495,693 -4,972,022
JDSU JDS UNIPHASE 6,041,092 10,765,396 -4,724,304
CMCSA COMCAST CORP-A 20,395,519 24,513,793 -4,118,274
DTV DIRECTV-A 15,019,306 19,025,690 -4,006,384
FMCN FOCUS MEDIA-ADR 8,327,598 12,098,371 -3,770,773
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS 63,605,591 67,364,986 -3,759,395
BPAX BIOSANTE PHARMA 17,386,999 21,060,234 -3,673,235
URBN URBAN OUTFITTER 13,972,328 17,291,934 -3,319,606
AMAT APPLIED MATERIAL 8,976,539 12,237,643 -3,261,104
INTC INTEL CORP 117,479,241 120,548,516 -3,069,275
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENT 16,210,884 19,187,370 -2,976,486
TLAB TELLABS INC 7,640,937 10,584,201 -2,943,264
GTAT GT ADVANCED TECH 14,769,681 17,685,843 -2,916,162
GRMN GARMIN LTD 15,301,076 18,209,299 -2,908,223
GMCR GREEN MOUNTAIN 26,307,819 29,195,406 -2,887,587
FITB FIFTH THIRD BANC 17,892,845 20,536,544 -2,643,699
DELL DELL INC 65,844,046 68,378,211 -2,534,165
AXAS ABRAXAS PETRO 18,951,328 21,312,969 -2,361,641
FSLR FIRST SOLAR INC 18,700,030 20,877,328 -2,177,298
VIAB VIACOM INC-B 8,629,898 10,716,821 -2,086,923
FAST FASTENAL CO 21,485,040 23,544,317 -2,059,277
CPWR COMPUWARE CORP 4,773,421 6,763,762 -1,990,341
GERN GERON CORP 8,958,284 10,944,758 -1,986,474
ARIA ARIAD PHARM 14,400,128 16,359,859 -1,959,731
AP 1903(Bellicum) already is the fourth compound- I was going to mention that too.. We have the fourth. To be in sync with Ariad, I would make your "future compound" the fifth compound..
After what Harvey said today, this may be the Ultimate Outcome:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pharma-pays-scarce-assets-231312233.html
Slides from today are on the Ariad web site.. they are worth a look..
Can we see $15 now? I think you can.. no pull back after presentation
Sure would like to attend the breakout session now...