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Without real growth in the world economies, this will be a disaster. But, they really have no choice. I'm so surprised how paralyzed the world leaders are.. Zero leadership..
I'm getting a sick feeling in my stomach about the market, with all the issues in Europe, Syria, and the biggie for me Iran. May be that feeling is a good thing.. we will see soon enough.. Ariad will of course follow..
Did the same think with CheckFree (CKFR). Bought the stock in 1997 at $18.50. The web discussion group that I was on was invited to the CheckFree headquarters, for their annual investor's conference by the President and CEO Pete Knight. Probably ten of us from the discussion board, from all over the country, flew out and attended the conference, and Pete Knight recoginized us at the meeting. Kind of sureal. In late 1999, CheckFree announced that they were purchasing MicroSoft's bill pay service for $1 billion (they, msft,just started), which gave CheckFree 80% of the space. The stock ran up to $120 from my $18.50. I exited completely at $95. I will never forget that experience..
What you really can sense is the teamwork of the employees. If it is working, you will know it..
thesaud, if I lived within 100 miles of Cambridge, I would go. So what that you have to get up at 3:00 AM..it's only once a year..
I've went to two of these with past tech stocks I've owned and it was always worth it..
With the stroke of a pen, Harvey could change the CML landscape. And, he knows that..
The next big issue is pricing of Pona. If Harvey isn't too greedy and prices Ponatinib close to the other two second line CML drugs, Ponatinib will be very disruptive in the CML space. Over on the SI board they mention that the two second line CML drugs already have moved to commanding 50% of the first line business.
I sense a little Enron has consumed the board..
In a twisted bit of faith, our new owner, at one for one @ $38, and a 4.4% dividend..
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MRK
At the GS conference yesterday, Harvey indicated that they will have a robust efficacy data set for '113 in September, even though it is just the Phase 1 portion of the PH 1/2 trial. It seemed like they were going to throw in the kitchen sink with this data.
Ariad at the Goldman Sachs conference yesterday
We should see a slew of opinions on biotech companies from Goldman Sachs over the next several days.
It may have been one of the best presentations from Harvey on their pipline simply because there were no PowerPoint slides.. it seemed that it was just a discussion, and Harvey absolutely shines in that format. And, Harvey laid out in minute detail just how the company is prepared for the launch of Pona. Nobody does it better, imho. Also, I really like the color he added to '113. I think we have something here. They are now over 120 mg.
We should see a slew of opinions on biotech companies from Goldman Sachs over the next several days.
It may have been one of the best presentations from Harvey on their pipline simply because there were no PowerPoint slides.. it seemed that it was just a discussion, and Harvey absolutely shines in that format. And, Harvey laid out in minute detail just how the company is prepared for the launch of Pona. Nobody does it better, imho. Also, I really like the color he added to '113. I think we have something here. They are now over 120 mg.
Listen to the Goldman Sachs call.. It is not going to $12...
Volume: 3,974,381
Avg Vol (3m): 3,404,310
FDA Rejection- Who Cares?
Well, I care, but that is besides the point..
http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2012/06/05/fda-rejection-who-cares.aspx
For those interested in AP26113, this ASCO piece should be of interest, as this is probably the glide path for Ariad's compound:
LDK378 showed substantial activity in patients with ALK-positive NSCLC. The overall response rate was 81% among the 26 patients previously treated with crizotinib who then received LDK378 at doses of 400 mg per day or greater. The objective response rate among all 33 patients with NSCLC receiving at least 400 mg per day was 67%. Antitumor activity was also observed in brain metastases at the maximum tolerated dose of 750 mg. No responses were observed in other tumor types, including in ALK-amplified breast cancer.
http://chicago2012.asco.org/ASCODailyNews/Abstract3007.aspx?et_cid=29386993&et_rid=556849519&linkid=http%3a%2f%2fchicago2012.asco.org%2fASCODailyNews%2fAbstract3007.aspx
The best entertainment value for me was when Cramer tried to pronounce "Rida" and "Pona".. For the real longs here, that was just too funny...
Cramer is setting this up well for Harvey. The CEO for IMGN was first up, and while it looks like they will have a successful product pipeline, they are only going to receive mid single digit royalities. Ugh. Harvey has been there and done that.. Let's see if owning all the rights comes through..
Rachel McMinn has ALWAYS been behind the curve with Ariad. That is a fact. I'll follow the institutional investors who bought in Q1 2012 after the big run up, thank you very much. At least they pulled a trigger. Let the ones that have a love fest with her continue.. Like lemmings..
Harvey on with Jim Cramer.. this will be interesting..
Well, the big difference is Rachel McMinn and Dew have no skin in the game, and never did from $.72 to $17.60. McMinn thinks there are still outstanding warrents, so it tells me that she doesn't follow Ariad that closely. Neither McMinn or Dew add any value to Ariad based on AP26113, however, we know that it worked stunningly well in one patient (I know that is not a big N, but that is all we have). I expect that preliminary efficacy on '113, which will be revealed in a few short months (September), will cause both McMinn and Dew to re-evaluate their Ariad S/P models.
I always question medical experts making statements like this, when they know absolutely nothing about how the compound works:
I expect Ponatinib will fit within the recent FDA classification for rapid (read as earlier) FDA approval.
This appears to indicate that the $ one trillion stimulus is now over and has moved through the economy. We are now on our own, in unchartered waters.... this, by all means is not over..
I should have added the start of pivotal phase II trials for '113 in middle to late 2013..
Not sure we can win the battle with the bias of the rest of the market. I was hoping we could make it to the early fall, where, as I expect, '113 will have fabulous results, and Ariad will announce, as they indicated they might, the start of at least one, maybe two, pivotal phase II trials for '113. This is not priced in, I can assure you..
Harvey has held those shares for years.
He is confident.. I like that.. The speed, and the way he is building the talent in this company, he either knows this thing is going to be big.. really big, or he is a mad man.. 99% sure it is the former..
$62,762,868
Value of Harvey's holdings.. What keeps him there? How long will he ride this magic carpet?
Don't forget, these are mouse models..
The real deal will be the first look at AP26113 efficacy in humans at the conference in September-October. But, we all know that it works stunningly well in at least one patient.
I guess Harvey will discuss anything if a reporter shows up:
http://bostonglobe.com/business/2012/05/24/ariad-ceo-says-italy-and-spain-likely-pay-for-new-cancer-drug/QUwjN5KgMZCjJK7hjakj7H/story.html
We've got George Soros, Cohen, and Baker Brothers all adding to their positiion in Ariad during Q1 2012.. Any others wanting to join the club? Are these guys ever late? I just don't want Iccan to join in and ruin it..
This dog can't hunt.
Unfortunately, if you read Bloomberg news on the fact that the lead underwriter of Facebook, Morgan Stanley, had to inject $2 billion into the market the last half hour of trading on Friday to support Facebook (FB) offering stock price of $38, we might be in a world of hurt in the market next week. This just might be an event that will be written into the text books of Harvard business school..
Baker Brothers just added in Q1, so hopefully, that don't have their finger on the sell button..
You do want to listen to Ariad at the Bank of America presentation today. He did mention that Ariad's glide path should look like Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALXN), and there are more compounds coming out of the lab that will follow two paths. One, are compounds that target mutations of existing treatments, and two, new, unique Ariad compounds.
I hate those low of the day closes...
Dump the lump..