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I have a limit order in at 20.45. I don't think we'll hit it today but there is a chance. I would like to close out this position before I head off to the islands on Monday AM.
Michael...what does the 'running out of room' comment mean?
I bought some INTC shares at $19.60, looking for a run up to $20.40 over the next two weeks. Should it dip below $19, I will bail on that position.
I like it. It sounds like a name that will have a little more consumer appeal than some of Intel's other branding.
Sarmad...I'm considering buying a little at the open tomorrow looking for a .50-.75 cent move up from here by the end of the week. I'm just not totally convinced that we won't see 19.50 tomorrow first. Your thoughts?
D of U is there a link to more info on this Vista/945 issue?
'After further review', I am NOT going to short here after all. I feel it could be the right move, but I decided some weeks ago that if I am confused about something, to not act and just wait. And I am confused about the response to the negative call from JMP.
Basically I've joined the "if you can't beat'em, join'em" school of trading (joing in with the manuipulators). Unfortunately, I don't have access to their (institutions) decisions on how they will spin the information prior to them spinning it. Which puts me at a distinct disadvantage.
However I have found some pleasure in shorting against my large long position which essentially means betting on the volatility of the stock price. And by using some historical data to help estimate the likelyhood (the odds) of the price moving one way or the other from where it is, then I can short the stock and still hope that I am wrong. So kind of a win-win scenario.
At this point I am kind of like the guy who goes to Vegas and puts $25 in the field of the craps table and wins three times in a row, and say 'gee this gambling thing is easy, I'm pretty good at it!'. Having been a casino dealer in my previous life I can tell you how wrong he is!
re: I was waiting for January to make a bigger exit!
I feel you dude. I made the same monumental mistake. I failed to heed what my father always told me growing up: "Don't worry about having to pay taxes on your income or trying to avoid paying them, if you have excess income that you have to pay taxes on, that's a GOOD thing".
re: So far, their plan didn't work. If we finish out the week without a crash (edited: or without backsliding 50 to 70 cents), I think it means INTC has been booted up a notch.
I definately agree. This is a big 'if' however. Any positive spin from Dell tomorrow will help that cause BUT I still see that is likely that the stock will retrace to the downside based on a delayed reaction to the JPM call. I will short here at the open with a stop loss at 52 cents. Further upside from here will be a mini breakout and I hope that it happens, if the price holds then I still agree that INTC has booted up a notch (due to the negative call from Danelly).
I love this one....
He probably called down to the JP Morgan IT department and asked them how many PC’s they were buying this month. Of course, since they frittered away $billions on totally unqualified mortgages, they didn’t have any money left to buy any PC’s. Therefore the world wide (75% of Intel revenues are outside US) PC sales are going to hell in a hand basket. Absolutely amazing….
LOL
holy smoke...put in a limit order that just went off at 20.80, so I picked up around 1.10/share on this trade. I will look to short back the other way if we get into the 21.50 range.
I updated my post with some more comments, let me know your thoughts.
I went long on some INTC yesterday at 19.71 and will look to sell if it can reach 20.71. I think this is the trading range that we are looking at for the forseeable future, at least until US recession data is in the rear view mirror which may be in Q4 or Q1'09. So between $18.50 and $22.50 is where I think the active trader needs to be working.
Note: I am not an active trader but am starting to become more active since buy and holding has not been working that well with INTC. Additional Note: Since my dreams of living in leisure were dashed in the month of January I am now back to fulltime work doing software development again, oi vey.
FYI...I covered my previous short position at around $20.20 for a gain of about buck/share. Looking to buy a little if the price falls to around 19.50.
lol, I can troll with the best of 'em
ok I'll bite...what do you suggest as a good long strategy for anyone with a large long position in INTC? Dump it all over the next few months at the best prices possible? Or slowly liquidate over the next 2 years or so? Or hold on for 3-4 years and see whether the moves Intel has made over the past few years begin to bear fruit?
re: turned our society into a nation of interior decorators of Single Family Dwellings
Glad to see that someone else recognizes the bizzare evolution of the American homeowner. We have become a nation of huge big box homes with 4 bathrooms (but no yard) and kitchens full of enough granite to build a museum. And don't forget the 2 dishwashers and subzero fridge that cost about the same as a small car. It irrates me to no end to see the 30 something kids spending this kind of money on what will really do nothing for them when they turn 50. While CitiGroup may have played a role, I chalk it up to the same psyche that has everyone paying $3 for a cup of coffee.
ahhh, the light finally came on. IPF is a proprietary architecture! The whole world of x86 cross license agreements has been so ingrained in me that I failed to realize that the life (or death) of IPF is at least a complete Intel phenomenon. If IPF succeeds it directly benefits the bottom line of Intel and only Intel. I've never been that excited about this part of this business in the past, but all I can say now is 'long live Itanium'!
Perhaps Nividia's 'better than seasonal Q1' remarks are having some impact after hours and may also help the open tomorrow. Then again, it could just be my opening of a short position that may send the stock the moon. That would fit the pattern I have established so far this year (every trade a loser, expect for my AMD puts). Seriously though, if I have to cover by short position tomorrow, I will be quite happy since my April option will be far enough in the money to execute and sell those shares for a modest profit.
not to be too negative but you forgot to add:
Now all we need is a small economic slowdown and some traction for MID's and WIMAX and the price can get back to where it was on Dec 31, 2007.
chipguy, What is IPF contributing today in those two areas (revenue and profit), approximately?
Is there an exchange where I can trade on a stocks intrinsic value? If so, sign me up.
AMD's New Notebook Chip Could Have a Bug, Analyst Says
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/techsemis/10403329.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
American Technology analyst Doug Freedman was not specific about the nature of the bug, or which component of the Puma chipset it affected, and he acknowledged that AMD may already have a fix for it. But he said that PC makers are concerned and, he believes, are attempting to find alternative technology for their notebooks.
"We believe the mere potential for a problem with Puma, even if a fix is in the works and the platform is scheduled for an "on-time" launch, will likely have an impact on initial volumes for the (refresh of the notebook product line for the spring)," Freedman wrote in a note to investors.
.....
In fact, Freedman speculates that the glitch could trigger a sale of the company or a major management shake-up. And he even suggests a potential buyer: Nvidia
Probably not good news for green.
Shorted some INTC at 21.10. Anticipating a pullback from this level sometime in the next 5 trading sessions. I will cover at 21.61 and will be hoping that I will need to do just that.
Clearwire is preparing to launch WiMax here in Portland this year, soon I hope. I have steadily been adding shares of Clearwire for the past year or so and we are starting to see some activity (good activity) in the stock lately, hopefully we will see more.
re: those calls...I for one can't envision the stock price following below 18.50 before end of month but that still leaves more than a buck and half of the time premium to cover. But I also think there is a good chance that the stock trades higher than 20.28 sometime before the option expiration. So if I owned these calls I wouldn't wait for expiration but would be looking for $21-$22 to sell the calls.
Don't forget the drivers. Intel makes an additional few bucks for the device drivers with each chipset. And while we're only talking a few bucks, when you consider the attach rate for the chipset (around 80% IIRC) and the cost (a bunch of folks writing C++ to the WDM model) it's a pretty sweet deal for Intel.
isn't it too early for them to warn? wouldn't we expect the warning to come in early March if it was going to come?
yep, thanks for the correction. the employee stock options that may expire worthless were granted in 1998 not 2003 as I said in my post.
first nothing would please me more than to be 'just plain wrong', having said that, what I see is that due to the size of the company, their large market share and the nature of the mpu business that Intel's earnings move in a very tight range from quarter to quarter. When things are going great we might beat estimates by 1 cent. But all cylinders need to be firing just to achieve that at this point. The days of blowout quarters seem to be way behind us. It's amazing how a mature company like IBM is still able to come up with blowout quarters (must be the nature of the service business that allows that). But since all cylinders need to be firing just to meet expectations for Intel, any hiccup in the demand side of the equation will likely result in missing estimates until the estimates are brought down (and only a few analysts have done that to date AFAIK).
All these concerns I've been hearing about demand from the handset makers (first Motorola, now Infineon) makes me wonder what everyone is buying out there? Have the japaneese youngsters quit refreshing their cellphones every 60 days like they used to? Are people buying more smarter devices now (iPhone, Blackberries)? This has me puzzled, I thought the cellphone handset business was still going gangbusters.
But wouldn't all of this:
MSS gains, especially in the MP server space where AMD still has a stronghold (high margin), and also in desktop. New products, including Silverthorne/Diamondville, WiMax, and the NAND/PCM flash ramp
add up to 'small potatoes' in the effort to bump up revenues and margins enough to significantly affect Intel's entire mpu business (notebooks, desktop and servers)?
What would account for higher revenue and profits for 2008 vs. 2007? Let's assume for arguments sake that you are right about weakness in the US consumer being offset by demand in some other global sector. What factors in 2008 would account for revenue and profits to actually increase vs. just stay flat as the best case scenario?
re: ALL Intel needs to do is beat the lowered estimates and guide forward with better numbers
I agree whole heartedly, however I think the lowered estimates are justified and Intel will not be able beat nor guide higher in the coming quarters. Real macroeconomic forces are at work here and since INTC serves as a proxy for the economy, the current stock price is justified. It's not all dumb and gloom though there is always the 2009-2010 timeframe and if global demand has tapered off in 2008 then there should be some real pent up demand in 2009-2010.
P.S. It is a shame that many employee stock options granted in 2003 are about 45cents away from expiring worthless.
Sarmad...the past month of selling of INTC was not just some single institution selling their position. The pattern you are seeing now IS the pattern you will continue to see for the near term (6 to 9 months). The stock will rally to $21-22 at the high and then selloff back to $18-19 on the low. This is the new trading range for the forseeable future. FMV may be around $23-24 but there is little hope in seeing that until Q4'08 at the earliest but more likely Q1'09 IMO.
re: When earnings come in strong, I expect it will get back up there (ie. 26).
But we only have one earnings announcement prior to April. If we experience even a slightly less than seasonal Q1 (e.g. 28-29 cents), then the stock price may head south again (back to $20-21 level). But if less than seasonal results are already priced in then just meeting expectations could take the price back up to $24-25? I would think that regardless of what actually happens after the Q1 earnings that sometime leading up to the call that the price will move up from this level in anticipation of the earnings. Maybe that should be price I use to execute my stock swap.
Short term INTC stock price predictions needed...I could use some help in making a stock option excercise decision.
Between now and April 10, 2008, what is your estimate of the likelyhood of INTC reaching the $23 level? 100% or 0% or somewhere in between? All predictions welcome.
dang, looks like my failure to understand that just cost me $455.
A question on 'holder of record' status...if I excercise options (or make a buy trade) on February 4, 2008 am I a 'holder of record' for those shares on February 5, 2008 (the ex-divendend date)? Asked another way, does the trade have to 'settle' before I will be considered an owner of record or am I immediately a holder of record after the trade is executed?