is...trading
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it cant hold .30, next resistance is .38
Pincher looks ready....
WITM (.24)
RSI (5) broke 30.
RSI (14) above 30.
a penny away from breaking the 200MA on the 15min chart.
lots of room up to the 20MA.
I bailed at .30, in at .22 yesterday, strong resistance here at .30
lol, there she goes, broke .30, will watch to see if it holds and maybe renter...
:) Good Point!
Thanks Foxy, I'm Out at .30
Nice one to finish off my week (In at .22 yesterday!)
(Watch it run to .50 now!)
Foxy, where is next resistance here on AHMIQ?
AHMIQ moving....
Sweet!
yeah, all subprime chit is up premarket...
TARR, LUM, LEND, CFC....the list goes on...
Should be interesting to see what happens after Bush and Bernake speak this morning...
you still got your DFC? Gapping this morning after the drop yesterday. Strange stock. I never got back in....
this looks about ready for a nice bounce off the bottom here...
Nice, are you in that? Looks like some room to go up more. Will need to do some DD on this one...
I know you like the "pinchers"...
I took a starter position in these two today...they look ready to pop any day now...
AHMIQ (.22) (High Risk play)
WITM (.24)
Those halts sure make things interesting....scary chit
nice trade
Thornburg Mortgage Raises $500 Million in a Cumulative Convertible Redeemable Preferred Stock Offering
Thursday August 30, 10:20 am ET
SANTA FE, N.M.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Thornburg Mortgage, Inc. (NYSE:TMA - News), a leading single-family residential mortgage lender focused principally on the jumbo segment of the adjustable rate mortgage market, today announced that it priced an underwritten public offering of 20,000,000 shares of 10% Series F Cumulative Convertible Redeemable Preferred Stock at $25.00 per share. The base dividend on the convertible preferred shares will be the greater of 10%, or the dividend yield received by common shareholders calculated on a quarterly basis. Additionally, the shares are convertible into common stock at the option of the holder at any time at a conversion price of $11.50 per common share.
Gross proceeds from the transaction were $500 million and will be primarily used to further improve the company's liquidity position and to resume its origination of mortgage loans and acquisition of mortgage-backed securities. The aggregate net proceeds to the company are estimated to be approximately $473 million taking into account costs of issuance. The company has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to 3,000,000 additional shares from the company for the purpose of covering over-allotments, if any.
The bookrunning manager for the offering is Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., Inc.
The underwriters expect to deliver the 10.0% Series F Cumulative Convertible Redeemable Preferred Stock to purchasers on or about September 7, 2007. It is expected that trading on the New York Stock Exchange will commence as soon as possible and no later within 30 days of the initial delivery of shares. The 10.0% Series F Cumulative Convertible Redeemable Preferred Stock is expected to trade under the symbol "TMA PRF".
This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any 10.0% Series F Cumulative Convertible Redeemable Preferred Stock nor shall there be any sale of 10.0% Series F Cumulative Convertible Redeemable Preferred Stock in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful. Offers for the 10.0% Series F Cumulative Convertible Redeemable Preferred Stock will be made only by means of a prospectus (including a final prospectus) forming a part of Thornburg Mortgage, Inc.'s registration statement.
The issuer has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus) with the SEC for the offering to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should read the prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the issuer has filed with the SEC, as well as the related prospectus supplement relating to the offering of the Series F Preferred Stock for more complete information about the issuer and this offering. You may obtain these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the issuer, any underwriter or any dealer participating in the offering will arrange to send to you the prospectus if you request it by calling toll-free (800) 846-5050 or (703) 469-1023.
Certain matters discussed in this press release may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections, and are not guarantees of future performance, events or results. The words "believe," anticipate," intend," "aim," "expect," "will," "strive," "target," "project," "estimate," "have confidence" and similar words identify forward-looking statements. Actual results and developments could differ materially from those expressed in or contemplated by the forward-looking statements due to a number of factors, including general economic conditions, market prices for mortgage securities, interest rates, the availability of ARM securities and loans for acquisition and other risk factors discussed in the company's SEC reports, including its most recent annual report on Form 10-K. The company does not undertake to update, revise or correct any of the forward-looking information.
Contact:
Thornburg Mortgage, Inc., Santa Fe
Allison Yates, Clay Simmons, or Suzanne O'Leary Lopez
505-989-1900
-----------------------------------------
Source: Thornburg Mortgage, Inc.
Hey Abum, I know your all about the shorts....Do you know something I dont know? You dont have a multi-billion dollar bank account by any chance, do you?
(from another board)
Some real shenanigans going on in the options and futures markets.
From Jim Brown at OptionInvestor.com. Something you have to read. I wrote Jim about this last week as I saw some of the trades come through. Nobody does their home work like Jim Brown does as he tries to connect the dots. No use checking this stuff out on "snopes" - you can go to the CBOE site and see the open interest on the option charts. Whatever is going on it's nutz! We certainly live in interesting times. Joe
"Have you heard about the Bin Laden Trade? There are currently several billion dollars in option bets that the global indexes will fall 15-35% in the next 24 days. These are not just any option bets or a total of all the puts in the option chain. These are specific bets of a magnitude never seen before. The existence of these bets has prompted chat rooms all over the Internet to label them the "Bin Laden Trade." The challenge is in the quantity and valuation of the trades. Normally somebody buying 10,000 out of the money puts 3-weeks before expiration is either a gambler speculating about a dip or a hedge fund trying to protect long positions. This time of year either of those scenarios are normally valid tactics.
Unfortunately the bets causing consternation on the Internet are much larger and more diverse than just a few thousand out of the money puts. For instance, last week somebody sold short 61,730 SPX 700 calls. Selling calls short has the same result as buying puts but a lot more dangerous. If the market goes down the call value shrinks and you buy them back to cover your shorts at a cheaper price. If the market goes up the value of your calls goes up and you lose money on the trade, sometimes a lot of money. Somebody shorting 61,730 deep in the money calls is taking a monstrous risk but this is not the end of the story.
Those calls are worth $768 per share, $76,800 per contract. Shorting 61,730 contracts produces premium income of $4.74 BILLION dollars. Yes, billion. 61,730 contract times $76,800 per contract equals $4,740,864,000 in premiums. This is not idle chump change and not a frivolous bet. Reportedly this transaction was coded as a spread trade so I went looking for the offsetting entry. Why anyone would want to go that deep in the money for any kind of spread is pure lunacy but stranger things have happened. I found the offset in the SPX 1700 puts where 61,740 contracts were purchased long according to various researchers into the transaction. At today's value of $230 x100 = $23,000 times 61,740 equals $1.42 billion in option premium. Now, if the assumptions are correct the trader has roughly $3.6 billion in premiums sitting in his account and he has a massive short position worth a huge amount of money if the market tanks. How many players are there that can risk $1.5 billion on an option trade?
I tried to analyze this for the last two days and it makes me crazy thinking about it. Assuming the reports are wrong and he went long the calls the numbers are even more hysterical. That would have meant he put out $4.74 billion to bet on the market going higher. If he is long calls then is he short the puts? Shorting the puts raises +$1.42 billion to offset the long calls and has the same effect as being long. Market goes up and your short puts become worth less producing profit when you buy them back.
There is one other option. Suppose some major institution needed some cash really bad and they sold short both the calls and the puts and by doing so they raised $6.16 billion and their risk is actually minimal. Market goes down, calls go down and puts go up by an equal amount because they are so deep in the money. Same in the reverse if the market goes up. No real risk. This would be expensive money since it has to be unwound in 24 days and there will be bid ask spreads and commissions on both sides of 122,000 contracts but it did raise a lot of quick cash for about 4 weeks. If a big firm was in trouble and could not go to the debt markets this would be one way to raise short-term cash. The problem then becomes what if they can't pay it back? Do they repeat it in October options and just roll it forward? Eventually the details will come to light and the market would not like it that somebody was this desperate to raise cash. I view this scenario as only slightly less bearish than the directional trade being discussed in the chat rooms.
So comparing these scenarios, which do you think is most likely? Somebody forked over $3.6 billion to go long the market from 700 points in the money or somebody shorted the market and raised $3.6 billion in cash while doing so? Or did some bank/fund in trouble simply borrow $6 billion from the market for 4-weeks? Remember these are September options that expire in 24 days. No other combination of trade possibilities makes sense when the depth in the money on both sides of the trade is considered. Why go that deep just to be long or short. There is no benefit from being more than 100 points in the money on either side because there is no volatility in the premium 100 points away from the market. You would have to be expecting a very large move. It only makes sense if the trader is short the calls and long the puts as several institutional researchers claim.
If this is a directional trade it is a massive bet on a major market disaster but it gets even more complicated. Somebody, nobody knows who, bought 245,000 September puts on the 2,800 strike on the DJ Eurostoxx 50 on August 16th. This is only material because the index was at 4,100 at the time. That is a very long way from being in the money and it would take a nuclear attack to knock that index back -32% in the next couple of weeks. I don't have a dollar value on that position but I doubt it compares in value to the SPX trade.
It gets worse. In the last two days somebody else bought 10,250 puts on the Nikkei 225 Index on the 11,500 strike. The Nikkei is currently at 16,300. Again, those puts were a lot cheaper than the SPX play but still a major bet that disaster will hit the index before their expiration on Sept-14th.
http://www.nippo.ose.or.jp/20070827/html/p_10_03.htm
On Monday CNBC reported that investors have purchased more than $500 million in out of the money put options on the S&P betting we will see a further decline of -5% to -11% before September expiration. Using terms like "doomsday scenario" various analysts feel it is more of a speculation bet than hedging existing positions. This is not normal expiration volume.
On Friday another trader sold 10,000 contracts on each of 12 strikes (120,000 contracts) of deep in the money SPY calls with an average price of $6500 each. That is $780 million in premium received and a huge risk if the market continues higher. The strikes were between $60-$95 with the SPY at $147. Again, very deep in the money calls that nobody would ever do in normal circumstances. Open interest on the strikes before the trade averaged only 265 contracts each. Why so deep in the money unless you expected a very large move?
Mark Hulbert, author of the Hulbert Stock newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), said bearish sentiment is rampant. The HSNSI closed Monday night at 5.5%, which means that on average the majority of stock newsletters Hulbert tracks are recommending investors only retain 5.5% in stocks and 94.5% in cash. Just 10 days ago that number was 11.3% in stocks. The Dow rallied +500 points but the index plunged to near historic lows. Lots of bearishness from the newsletter crowd but those editors are not making billion dollar bets.
There are multiple scenarios making the round as to why anyone with deep pockets would make such a monstrous directional bet. If it is directional and not a cash crunch spread it has to be deep and I mean very deep pockets. The account size and credit worthiness of the trader would have to be unbelievably huge to be able to margin a $5 billion naked option trade where you are going short index calls. The margin would be huge. The trader would have to be credible and have multiple levels of management, including the market maker, approve the trade. Hold that thought. I can just picture that market makers face when he first saw the potential order. Short $4.72 billion in calls? Not on my watch! But it did happen. How much credit does a market maker have to have to cover a trade like that? Sheesh!
Scenario one has the most followers and that is the Bin Laden Trade. People think Al Qaeda will take the seven-year anniversary of 9/11 to hit the US again with another monster attack. 9/11 is on Tuesday again this year as it was in 2001. Rumors have been circulating for months that Al Qaeda was targeting seven US cities for some sort of nuclear attack. (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, New York, Boston, Washington D.C., Houston and Miami. All port cities with the exception of Vegas. Easy to sneak a weapon in by boat.) This is the lunatic fringe but documents captured in the past couple of years have substantiated this plan. Whether Osama can pull it off in my lifetime is doubtful but still a possibility. He did get permission to kill 10 million Americans from his religious leader two years ago. The only way he could do that is with a nuclear weapon(s) or a bacteriological attack. Since 3 known Al Qaeda associates have died from radiation poisoning in the last 3 years, including one in the U.S., I would bet on the nuclear option even if it is only a dirty bomb. You may remember Al Qaeda posted a video on the Internet back in early August showing President Bush standing in a burning White House with the headline "Big surprise coming soon." However, whoever placed that billion-dollar bet would have a tough time collecting if a major terror strike occurred. The SEC and Homeland Defense would have everyone in that trade chain locked up or buried in rubble within days of the event if it appeared to be a prior knowledge trade. Remember, the trader had to be credible to place the trade. Somehow credible with a multibillion dollar account and terror suspect don't seem to fit in the same sentence. However, the 1st Battalion 265 Air Defense Artillery mobilized on Friday under presidential order to deploy to Washington, after a stop at Fort Dix, to provide high tech weapon systems against any potential air threat.
Scenario two has a major financial institution imploding in a very visible way over the next two weeks. If somebody like Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers were forced to file bankruptcy because of the subprime exposure it would be lights out for the market. That would be a doomsday scenario for the financial sector. Nobody would trust any bank or broker for several quarters to come. The debt wreck from early August would look like a fender bender compared to the global train wreck a major bankruptcy would cause. Since that kind of financial sickness would be hard to contain the odds are good somebody with deep pockets would find out before it was made public. By shorting the indexes with these monster positions they would avoid any specific scrutiny from zealous regulators. "Heck sir, we just thought the market was looking weak and got lucky I guess." It has even been suggested that whichever bank/brokerage is in trouble placed the bet themselves to profit from the beating their stock will take when the truth comes out. Coincidentally BSC and LEH both report earnings on Sept-13th. Is that a clue?
Scenario three has Bernanke and the gang holding fast to the inflation story and not cutting rates on the 18th. Personally I think this would cause another market dip but nothing as potentially dangerous as the first two scenarios. Definitely not enough of a drop to justify $5 billion in risk in one trade.
Scenario four would be a cash strapped bank or fund shorting both sides to raise cash they hope they can pay back in 3-weeks. If they could not pay when those options expire that would be another massive problem for the markets to digest.
Whoever made that trade is looking at something around $1 million in transaction costs not counting any increased premiums from increased volatility surrounding any event. They could easily be looking at $2-$5 million in shrinkage regardless of how the trade turns out. If it was a directional trade and the market goes against them it could easily cost $100 million or so just to exit. Of course what is $100 million when you can afford to wager $5 billion?
I have no clue as to the motive for the trade or even if the facts circulating around the trading desks regarding the trade are true. I can look at an option chain and that open interest still exists on those strikes so somebody is still in the game, somebody with a lot riding on SPX options. Somebody that might just be able to stimulate that crash by a few well-placed program trades to speed things on their way. I look at it this way. This is a perfect chance to follow the money. There is a monster bet on the table and every scenario is bearish to some extent regardless of which one is true. I am going to move my few meager chips to their side of the table on the very good chance they probably know a lot more than we do about future events.
I know, its just bizarre.
Keeping mostly in cash, with quick in and outs...
your links dont work, but I looked at some other stuff...
I dunno what it all means..
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/935419.htm
Jelly Doughnut comin...
Thats a Great Story! I Always wanted a shot at the "Showcase Showdown". Most people are soooo far off.
us Canadians prefer to watch mostly US content, we havent exactly mastered Canadian TV and Film yet....lol
Yeah, of course....
LMAO
ummmm...helllloooo?
I was BANG on!
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22432403
280
Is it just me or does it seem like volume has just dried up on everything, are we all watching and waiting for the DOW to hit a 200 point drop?
This is what he is referring to...
http://americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=HTRE&MarketTicker=OTC&TYP=S
Thats for sure!
Thanks...
Have a look at this article....
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/august2007/270807_market_crash.htm
Heavy...
geeesh, makes a guy wanna keep it all in CASH right now!
I think this part is more likey than an attack..
"China dumping its vast dollar reserves"
But, who knows....
yeah, should be real interesting to see how this week finishes off.
Bulls n Bears in a tug of war with blinders on....
Looks like anything could happen, Exciting stuff!
More Investors Are Betting on Major Selloff in Stocks
By Jim Kingsland | 27 Aug 2007 | 09:13 PM ET
Not everyone on Wall Street is convinced that the worst is over.
In fact, some investors are betting tens of millions of dollars that the market is headed for a selloff -- a major selloff.
The reason: worries about a worsening credit crunch, along with speculation that the Federal Reserve may defy expectations and hold off on cutting interest rates at its Sept. 18 meeting.
So far, over $500 million in so-called put options have been purchased betting that the benchmark Standard and Poor's 500 index S&P 500 INDEX will tumble anywhere from 5% to 11% in September. Some investors are even buying put options calling for 52% decline. A "put" option increases in value as the underlying stock or index falls.
To put it in perspective, a 5% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be the equivalent of 667 points. An 11% decline would equal 1,468 points. And a 52% drop? You don't even want to know.
The upshot is that some major investors are putting up big money that the market is facing a major decline.
"There is still fear and investors are buying crash protection," says Todd Salamone, senior vice president of research at Schaeffer's Investment Research.
Of course, there are always investors betting on big declines -- they're called bears. What's unusual is the amount of money being put up on such a doomsday scenario.
"The activity in those puts has been a lot more aggressive then we have seen in the past," said Bill Lefkowitz, options strategist at brokerage firm Finance Investments. "Part of it is the environment and volatility where the Dow Industrials can easily swing over a hundred points during the day, or session to session."
Salamone of Schaeffer's points out that the index options have been "put dominated over the last several months." And the bets may have as much to do with hedging portfolios -- basically an insurance policy you hope you don't need -- as much as outright speculation.
"We don't know who the end users of these options are and often they are specialists, pros looking at arbitrage plays, so the common man doesn't necessarily need to be concerned," adds Andrew Wilkinson, a senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers. "But it’s a legitimate build of people wanting protection against the next 10% down should it come."
Whatever the reason, Lefkowitz says worries about what the Fed will do about interest rates are spurring big investors to buy protection in case of a major market drop.
"If the Fed doesn't cut Fed funds, the options market is telling you that the overall stock market will come down hard," says Lefkowitz. "We could be quickly under the 1400 level of the S&P 500 if the Fed doesn't act."
Fed-fund futures and a variety of market pundits have been forecasting a 100% likelihood the Fed will lower the benchmark lending rate, now at 5.25%, meaning there's no room in the market from the Fed for a surprise.
Lefkowitz also says the activity isn't strictly driven by money managers looking to protect portfolios. The put options are tempting enough for speculators to jump in. He says even if the market doesn't fall to below S&P 1400, the put options could still easily rise in value by "20, 30, 40 percent if we saw another large down day."
© 2007 CNBC.com
In HMY (9.00) and made a quick flip on LUM from 1.6 to 1.7
Friday pointed this in the right direction...
lol, I agree its typically a slow week, volume should be down on the last real week of summer, but big news is pending...
We could see a small rally to test the 50MA and then a quick drop down to the 200MA, if it falls through again then the bears are in control...
Lots of heavy economic indicators coming out this week....
"Bulls crave calm as Fed in focus"
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070826/column_stocks_outlook.html?.v=1
WTF do I know, this is...
Nothing tonight, but Tuesday is a lunar eclipse...
Total Lunar Eclipse to Occur on Tuesday
Steve Puetz discovered that some of the largest stock market crashes in history occurred around the time of a lunar eclipse.
The research by Puetz was first noted in an October 10, 1995 newsletter. Here is what we wrote:
"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."
". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
An example of a lunar eclipse triggering a stock market crash occurred in October of 1987 when a lunar eclipse on October 7th was followed by a 13-day collapse in U.S. stock prices that culminated in an all-out crash on October 19th of that year when the DJIA fell over 20% in a single day.
some 'borrowed' charts...
1987 with 2007 overlay
1987
1998
2007
Hmmmmm....
.......................
Posted by: landm19
In reply to: None
Date:8/26/2007 7:13:36 PM
Post #of 127119
"This is the week before the Labor Day weekend and historically it is not a good one. We will have reports about inflation, home prices and consumer sentiment and all of which could be market movers."
.......................
Should be a Real interesting week...
Hmmmm...reading lots of "crash" and "doom and gloom" stuff out there this weekend...
'borrowed' annotated charts...
1987
1998
2007
1987 with 2007 overlay...
Total Lunar Eclipse to Occur on Tuesday
http://www.cbc.ca/cp/science/070826/g082602A.html
Steve Puetz discovered that some of the largest stock market crashes in history occurred around the time of a lunar eclipse.
The research by Puetz was first noted in an October 10, 1995 newsletter. Here is what we wrote:
"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."
". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
An example of a lunar eclipse triggering a stock market crash occurred in October of 1987 when a lunar eclipse on October 7th was followed by a 13-day collapse in U.S. stock prices that culminated in an all-out crash on October 19th of that year when the DJIA fell over 20% in a single day.