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After all that negative news on natural gas by Alpha
the price or natural gas jumps high
Gives pause to not trust a word the talking heads say
Pump n dump
I had feeling they would pop it tonight
Even posted it at end of my last post on DGAZ board
Flicking MM's
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Yep
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Weekly Natural Gas Recap - Bearish Weather Pushes Prices Lower
notice....dates
Natural gas prices fell 3.56% this week.
broken below 50/200 MA.....not good
price is not 2.93....but.... 2.921
Natural gas price weakness can also be observed across the STRIP with summer month gas prices below $3/MMBtu.
Here are some relevant statistics for market participants to follow:
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June 2016 month-to-date (June 1 to June 23) power burn – 32.5 Bcf/d.
June 2017 month-to-date (June 1 to June 23) power burn – 29.1 Bcf/d.
Delta – (3.4) Bcf/d.
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June 2016 month-to-date (June 1 to June 23) total gas demand – 70.6 Bcf/d.
June 2017 month-to-date (June 1 to June 23) total gas demand – 68 Bcf/d.
Delta – (2.5) Bcf/d.
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June 2016 month-to-date (June 1 to June 23) total gas supplies – 77.6 Bcf/d.
June 2017 month-to-date (June 1 to June 23) total gas supplies – 77.3 Bcf/d.
Delta – (0.3) Bcf/d.
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June 2016 month-to-date (June 2 week to June 23 week) total storage build – 240 Bcf.
June 2017 month-to-date (June 2 week to June 23 week) total storage build – 302 Bcf (includes our estimate of June 23 week of 57 Bcf).
Delta – 62 Bcf.
with all this bearish forecasts by those that know....it could gap UP in morning.....just to screw with you
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4083705-weekly-natural-gas-recap-bearish-weather-pushes-prices-lower
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Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass plant is having to drop prices in order to sell lng to Mexico and Europe
a glut in product
cool weather has not helped sell lng
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Nat Gas accounted for 22.2pc of the MISO generation fuel mix in March, down from 26.5pc a year earlier
coal usage increased
if coal hadn't been brought back into the picture we might have had a differnet scenario
but coal is here to stay as long as Trump is in office
ng prices rise
coal usage increases and ng prices come back down
ebb n flow
BTW....some of indicators are in overbought territory
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8 - 14 day forecast cool weather compared to last year
only 33 to 40 % warm weather.....we should be getting hot....hot weather this time of year
I'm usually in tee shirts dripping wet working outside
it'z cool here.....very unusual weather
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
even European model calls for cooler weather next week going into following week
on 7-5 is little warm with cool weather coming behind it
can change by time gets here....shall see how wind blows it
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=sfcmslp&rh=2017062512&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=
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agree.....heat not here yet
coming
hope it stays away as am headed to Florida on vacation July 17th....for a week
hope it gets cool in Florida while I'm there
can get as hot as it wants after I'm gone.....lol
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Coal could play an important part in coming months....as it has last month
as ng prices increase....coal usage increases because of cheaper coal prices
as coal prices increase.....ng usage increases because of cheaper ng prices
a parity of sort.....like an ameba....one can't live without the other
Trump brought coal into the picture with his election
there is a lot playing into the price of ng this year not in the picture last year
we have weather/exports/coal/political issues affecting ng this year
BTW....ur charting was excellent....but....open for interpretation
that'z the thing about chartz
potatoes.....pota'toes
yes can go either way as I said in my post....best of luck to u
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Wondering how coal will play into lng usage...Trump is for coal
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Based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI), the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand during May was 15 percent below average and the 58th lowest value in the 123-year period of record. This was due to the mixed pattern of above- and below-normal temperatures and the time of year. Below-normal monthly temperatures in the Northeast increased heating demand. Below-normal monthly temperatures in the Southern Plains reduced cooling demand, but above-normal temperatures in parts of the Southeast increased cooling demand.
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summer started on June 21 and we are not having warm weather yet
cool weather for next 2 weeks....and wet
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MISO gas-fired generation falls 17pc in March
12 May 2017 16:29 (+01:00 GMT)
Houston, 12 May (Argus) — Natural gas-fired generation in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint fell in March from a year earlier amid rising gas prices and higher wind and coal generation.
Gas accounted for 22.2pc of the MISO generation fuel mix in March, down from 26.5pc a year earlier, according to the grid operator. The data implies electricity generation from gas-fired power plants in the MISO area decreased by 17pc in March from a year earlier to about 10.5TWh.
Total electric demand in that month fell by 1pc from a year earlier to about 47.4TWh.
Rising gas prices and a warmer-than-normal winter have cut power sector gas demand in the earlier months as well. Gas-fired generation in the first quarter is down by about 28pc from a year earlier, according to MISO data.
Total electric demand in the first quarter of 2017 was down by 6pc from a year earlier.
Spot gas prices at key midcontinent hub like the Chicago Citygates in the first quarter averaged $2.97/mmBtu, up by 47pc from a year earlier. Prices in March were 59pc higher than March 2016.
Meanwhile, prices for Illinois basin coal in March was down by 1.7pc from a year earlier, according to MISO.
The lower coal prices could have incentivized utilities to dispatch more coal-fired generation.
Coal accounted for 42.2pc of MISO fuel-mix in March, up from 40.5pc a year earlier. That translates to utilities in the region dispatching about 20TWh in March to meet demand, 3pc higher than March 2016.
Coal generation in the first quarter was less than 1pc lower from last year.
Wind accounted for 11.4pc of the MISO March generation fuel mix, producing about 5.4TWh, 25pc more than last year. Wind generation in the first quarter was up by 16pc from a year earlier.
Gas-burn this summer should pick up from current levels, MISO said.
"Compared to last year, we expect similar gas generation for the summer [and] capacity use will be largely driven by price," MISO said.
MISO expects peak electricity demand this summer will be 125GW, 3.6pc higher than last summer's actual peak load of 120.7GW based on forecasts of a warmer-than-normal season. 3.6pc higher demand this summer could be filled by natural gas or coal depending upon rise or fall of price of either.
Longer term, the midcontinent operator continues to see the resource fleet mix in the region transition from coal to more gas, wind and solar.
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ng futures chart appears to have possibly formed a reverse H & S pattern
with lower right shoulder last few days.....headed downward
appears over all chart says lower we go
are in mid range of chart
the highs over last week or so hit mid range part of chart pattern....still being in lower register......except the pop yesterday
the low of drop hit the lows of descending chart....we are in midrange of chart....possibly forming resistance....if goes below current number I believe we are headed down.....
looking closer at chart
last few days could have formed an ascending triangle within the chart
with bottom of 2.910....does it bounce there are head lower....????
did the same thing June 6th and failed to head higher......dropped to new lows
question should ask ourselves
what is the catalyst to move ng futures.....cooler weather next few weeks rather than hot weather.....will that move it.....which way....?????
or do we get a technical move.....will be watching Sunday
Monday.... how does USA deal with the chart....news....weather being cold or hot....price of ng being high causing more usage of coal....does that bring ng prices down....Chennergie-South Louisiana dropping lng prices to be able to sell to Mexico/Europe
lots of things affecting ng this year.....not like last year when weather was main mover
Monday morning will be interesting
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N G seasonal chart usage
http://www.seasonalcharts.com/future_energie_naturalgas.html
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Cooler temps this week and next week coming
https://digital.weather.gov/
http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/u-s-min-temperature-forecast.htm
6 - 10 day outlook
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php
8 -14 day outlook
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
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For a simple example, imagine a relatively inefficient combined cycle is competing with a coal generator. At $4/MMBtu, the natural gas combined cycle would have a dispatch cost of around $40/MWh. Say the coal generator has a dispatch cost of $43/MWh. In order to decrease natural gas demand, natural gas prices would have to increase until the dispatch cost for the coal generator is lower. In this case, natural gas prices would have to increase more than $0.30/MMBtu to drive dispatch costs higher than $43/MWh.
If natural gas demand needs to increase (due to relative short term oversupply), the opposite happens, with natural gas prices going down until natural gas replaces coal through power market competition. Note that coal prices will also change as power sector coal demand decreases or increases; this is the major reason why coal prices approximately track natural gas prices.
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Norfolk Southern coal volumes increased 21.9 percent in the first quarter of 2017 compared with the same time frame in 2016. That's 245,771 carloads, up from 201,671.
The largest spike in volume was seen in Lamberts Point loading area in Norfolk, Virginia, where Norfolk Southern is headquartered. There, the amount of coal loaded onto trains was up 47.1 percent from the first quarter a year ago.
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MISO gas-fired generation falls 17pc in March
12 May 2017 16:29 (+01:00 GMT)
Houston, 12 May (Argus) — Natural gas-fired generation in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint fell in March from a year earlier amid rising gas prices and higher wind and coal generation.
Gas accounted for 22.2pc of the MISO generation fuel mix in March, down from 26.5pc a year earlier, according to the grid operator. The data implies electricity generation from gas-fired power plants in the MISO area decreased by 17pc in March from a year earlier to about 10.5TWh.
Total electric demand in that month fell by 1pc from a year earlier to about 47.4TWh.
Rising gas prices and a warmer-than-normal winter have cut power sector gas demand in the earlier months as well. Gas-fired generation in the first quarter is down by about 28pc from a year earlier, according to MISO data.
Total electric demand in the first quarter of 2017 was down by 6pc from a year earlier.
Spot gas prices at key midcontinent hub like the Chicago Citygates in the first quarter averaged $2.97/mmBtu, up by 47pc from a year earlier. Prices in March were 59pc higher than March 2016.
Meanwhile, prices for Illinois basin coal in March was down by 1.7pc from a year earlier, according to MISO.
The lower coal prices could have incentivized utilities to dispatch more coal-fired generation.
Coal accounted for 42.2pc of MISO fuel-mix in March, up from 40.5pc a year earlier. That translates to utilities in the region dispatching about 20TWh in March to meet demand, 3pc higher than March 2016.
Coal generation in the first quarter was less than 1pc lower from last year.
Wind accounted for 11.4pc of the MISO March generation fuel mix, producing about 5.4TWh, 25pc more than last year. Wind generation in the first quarter was up by 16pc from a year earlier.
Gas-burn this summer should pick up from current levels, MISO said.
"Compared to last year, we expect similar gas generation for the summer [and] capacity use will be largely driven by price," MISO said.
MISO expects peak electricity demand this summer will be 125GW, 3.6pc higher than last summer's actual peak load of 120.7GW based on forecasts of a warmer-than-normal season.
Longer term, the midcontinent operator continues to see the resource fleet mix in the region transition from coal to more gas, wind and solar.
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Natrual Gas vs Coal Consumption for Aril of 2017
Net generation in the United States increased by only 0.3% compared to April 2016. The country, as a whole, experienced temperatures that were warmer than normal in April 2017, although temperatures the previous April were also warmer than normal. At the regional-level, all states east of the Mississippi River saw significantly above average temperatures, with many states in the MidAtlantic experiencing record heat in April 2017. Only states located in the northwest part of the country saw temperatures that were near or slightly below average during the month.
All regions of the country, except for the Northeast and MidAtlantic, saw an increase in electricity generation from coal compared to April 2016. Electricity generation from natural gas decreased in all parts of the country, with the Central region seeing the largest percent decrease (-30.1%) compared to the previous year. The overall increase in coal generation and subsequent decrease in natural gas generation mainly occurred due to the rise in natural gas prices that happened over the past year.
Net generation from nuclear was down 9.0%, as many nuclear plants were offline for spring maintenance compared to the previous year. Electricity generation from other renewable sources was up in all regions of the country, with Texas seeing the largest percent increase (39.7%) due to an increase in wind and solar plants that have come online since the previous year.
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/resource_use.php
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Nice going ..... $$$$$$$$$$$
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picked D up here......around 9 am
figured u knew from this post
link back for post
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Got some 27.10 .....D
Does it form Reverse H & S
Back down it goes 4 a bull fake ......???????
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yep it is
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both TOS and Stockcharts showed less.....within few secounds showed higher than ur sell order
guess ur TOS or stickcharts is better than mine......lol
at the time of ur post TOS showed high of 12.71
modern day technology
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TOS shows high of 12.71
stockcharts shows 12.70 high
u must have a typo
now shows 12.77
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over 200 contracts on BID side
just went tru
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come on D....spurs n helmets
no reason 4 UGAZ to be where it'z at
no long summer heat
no long cold weather
no storm.....hurricane
total CDD number was - 16.92 earlier this week
today = - 34.80.....doubled
https://truewx.com/energy/
higher the CDD number better 4 DGAZ
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come on D....spurs n helmets
no reason 4 UGAZ to be where it'z at
no long summer heat
no long cold weather
no storm.....hurricane
total CDD number was - 16.92 earlier this week
today = - 34.80.....doubled
https://truewx.com/energy/
higher the CDD number better 4 DGAZ
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this is like watching paint dry
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Cheniere targets lower LNG prices to attract customers
Amid a liquefied natural gas (LNG) oversupply in the global market, the U.S.’s Cheniere Energy is offering liquefaction capacity for lower prices and shorter terms than offered previously to attract new customers and finance its expansion. “To the extent we…
https://www.kallanishenergy.com/2017/06/23/cheniere-targets-new-lng-customers-with-better-terms/
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you forgot to put the link in your post
here is the link....if u would put it in ur post....will sticky it....if u please
total CDD number was - 16.92 to today = - 34.80.....doubled
https://truewx.com/energy/
higher the CDD number better 4 DGAZ
that being said.....ng is trying to run
go figure
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trying to head to 44
trying 4 break out.....resistance of 43.50 ish
ng trying to run right now
chart is screwed up
could be trying to lift off ng
who ever got those 2.855's are setting pretty.....lots of them
got over 6k shares moved on way down
probably hit high and unloaded um
that red candle long wick at bottom....don't like
no real catalyst making it move......other than commercial movers
hedge funds etc.......
they could be trying to hold this pig in a blanket up.....n.....not many buying into it
shall see
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got my bit out of D and ok with it
D up after hours
if ur holding u could do good in morning
if it holds
best of luck to u
will look in morning and see what looks like
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Not sure if will go up..
..red candle with long tail appears to pull it down
don't know if will happen tonight or tomorrow
not eager to get caught in volatility
unless am there to watch it
crazy day
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sold 27.65....headed to work
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in D 27.01...boots....helmets....spurs.....giddy up
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sold U.....12.57
looking back in near bottom of wick
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also picked up some 12.31
could it go to 22.00
shall see
money flow appears back
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in U 12.40
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In U 12.40
better or worse
see long term going up
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