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Looks like Dr. Ryan has been listening to your criticism of him doing too little PR work lol
Our CEO Charles Ryan discussing #Bryostatin drug development for moderate to severe #Alzheimers @IAmBiotech #BIOCEO19 with @GreggStebben @Forbesbooks pic.twitter.com/B24WUy7TYK
— Neurotrope Inc (@Neurotrope1) February 22, 2019
For those of you that missed the call or want to listen to it again: https://instaud.io/3kDB
Here's what I got from it:
- Both doctors are cautiously optimistic about the amyloid approach and don't believe it should be discarded, but at the same time acknowledge that clearing amyloid isn't correlated with improving cognition, and that it will most likely be used to stop the damaging effects of too much amyloid in the brain rather than cure the disease.
- They both believe that better trial designs and ways of measuring patients are needed.
- Dr. Farlow stressed the importance of designing trials to show significant/definitive results, and that interim analyses are good if they contribute to more significant/definitive results.
- IMO both the doctors and the market in general still seems to have a lot of faith in the amyloid theory, even though they acknowledge that past trials have either failed or shown very modest effects.
- Dr. Sabbagh believes that Aducanumab is the best "shot on goal", and Dr. Farlow says he "tends to agree". Both are cautiously optimistic but agree that it could fail like other trials.
- When asked about what would happen if the same drug failed in one trial but succeeded in the other, they say it would most likely head to registration due to the huge unmet demand for new AD drugs.
- Dr. Sabbagh seems encouraged by BAN2401, thinks that it got beat up because of its trial design and that the combination of cognitive stabilization and amyloid removal is encouraging.
- Both seem to agree that Tau has a better correlation to disease progression than amyloid, and seem cautiously optimistic about this field too.
Note that I may be misinterpreting their words considering how vague and cautious they are about their choice of words.
- When asked about BACE inhibitors they seem more pessimistic. Dr. Farlow adds a comment about how going after metabolism is a lot like hitting things with a hammer. He seems to see this method as a very crude way of going after the disease with lots of questionable effects.
- Some talk about combination therapies. both doctors acknowledge the possibility that Alzheimer's might have to be treated with multiple drugs rather than just one.
- Both doctors agree that peripheral biomarkers could be very important for diagnosing patients properly
- When asked about alternative approaches, Dr. Farlow says we're reaching the limits on cholinesterase inhibitors and NMDA inhibitors like Memantine. Very short, straight to the point, and pessimistic tone.
- Both doctors seem very encouraged by Bryostatin-1, and acknowledge its possibly synaptogenic effects from the 20 dose, and how the difference between groups becomes more clear when you remove Memantine out of the equation.
- They both seem to agree its an extremely promising and exciting drug due to its significant effect on a limited number of patients, but Dr. Farlow thinks that 15 weeks is too short, and that the amount of patients in the last trial was too small to show anything definitive. Says that if the confirmatory trial works out that this drug has lots of potential in other indications too. Both seem very optimistic about this.
- Some talk about going after inflammation, although they generally seem to agree it could be more of a downstream effect rather than a potential target for treating the disease.
- Some worries about the Aducanumab trial having its sample size changed in hopes of showing better results. Could be a sign that they don't have enough power/statistical significance and are trying to give it an extra chance by adding more patients.
That's what I'm thinking.
Each site gets a number of slots to fill and then some of them manage to fill their slots faster than other sites depending on demand.
If we assume that WCT needs a month or so to compile and send the data to Neurotrope by July 30th, then theoretically they should have the last patient enrolled by mid-March.
My bet is on a results announcement in September.
Still recruiting:
https://stedmanclinical.com/our-studies-1
Agreed. No matter how good the science is, this company is still not generating any revenues, and nobody knows how the market will interpret the upcoming results. The data might come out amazing but the market could still decide to drop this thing to $2.
This isn't a stock you put your retirement savings in, it's a speculative play you put your betting money in.
Oh, my bad. Looks like I might need some Bryostatin-1 for my own memory deficits lol
New patent application published:
https://patents.justia.com/patent/20190041404
Looks like they hired a news anchor. Take a look at the description in her Twitter profile:
https://twitter.com/iamsusanroberts
Because of algorithms.
I wouldn't read into it too much. Some market makers and institutions just like to set up an automated solution and then let it do its thing.
It's also how institutions buy/sell large amounts of shares without causing too much of a ruckus in the markets.
Rather than try buying up 100k shares at once they set up an automated solution that automatically executes small trades whenever the conditions are right.
They already got the financing out of the way last year, so I would say it's almost guaranteed we won't see more dilution this year.
There is about $100 million waiting to flow into the company from exercised warrants as soon as this thing goes over $32 per share, so unless we see some phenomenally bad results this year, I'd say we have enough cash on hand to bring Bryostatin-1 to the market without further significant dilution.
It's not like they have anything new to present. They talked about the current data last year already.
Except for the 10K, I don't see much happening here until the next data readout in 6 months.
Launching new trials and signing more agreements is obviously nice to see, but I doubt it will have any significant effect on the stock price.
"Neurotrope to Participate in the BIO CEO & Investor Conference"
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/neurotrope-to-participate-in-the-bio-ceo--investor-conference-300792080.html
The science has been solid for quite some time now. I'd say our big problem is market sentiment.
Do a quick Google search for "neurotrope" and you'll find an article labeling the company a "shameful PR stunt" in the top 5 results.
Combine that with the "failed" trial articles and the low stock price, and you suddenly have a lot of red lights scaring off new potential investors.
It also doesn't help that new results are 6 months away, which means that even if you do want to get in, there's plenty of time left for those on the fence to scratch their heads and think about whether they really want to give this a shot.
My only hope is that they don't get acquired while the price is still this low.
"Neurotrope Announces Cooperative Research and Development Agreement for Bryostatin-1 with the National Cancer Institute"
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/neurotrope-announces-cooperative-research-and-development-agreement-for-bryostatin-1-with-the-national-cancer-institute-300786942.html
Don't forget Joshua Silverman, the chairman of the board that likes filling up his little hedge fund with more NTRP shares.
It's a damn shame to see a scientific breakthrough be contaminated with a management team like this.
Hopefully he'll be voted out at the next shareholders meeting.
No need for a subscription. Here's the full article: https://bionewsfeeds.com/2019/01/16/top-10-alzheimers-disease-stories-of-2018/
Oh, okay. I guess we'll know the exact numbers once the 10-K is out in about a month or two.
Although I guess that's the case with every black swan.
People think the past will keep repeating itself until one day it doesn't.
Not much you can do when the stock price keeps hovering around $4.
I'm still amazed by how little people seem to care about this company. They shrug this off as a scam that's trying to do something impossible.
It sounds too good to be true so they don't even bother to take a look at the data.
Sometimes the reactions are even hostile, since they think you're trying to screw them over.
575,000 new options issued.
Looks like we're at around 26 million shares after dilution now.
Dr. Alkon has been working for the NIH for decades and was offered to start his own neuroscience institute by the Rockefeller's, so I'm pretty sure the guy knows what he's talking about when he says PKCE is the master switch.
Either way, great job finding all these articles. Investigative posts like these are exactly what this board needs.
I wouldn't worry too much about what some "experts" claim either. New trial results should get rid of all doubts.
No scientist worth their salt will dispute results with a p-value below 0.01.
Patience is key. Time is on our side.
I wouldn't worry too much about the market.
Volume has dropped significantly, which I assume means the major sellers are mostly done selling their shares.
There's also still a lot of time left before the new results are announced, which means that there's no real pressure on anyone to buy in now.
If the past is anything to go by, this thing won't really start moving until April or May once we get closer to the announcement date.
There's a reason for why this guy writes for Seeking Alpha instead of a more respectable website. He clearly has no idea what he's talking about and even Dr. Alkon has commented on how blatantly wrong he is.
Don't take this clown too seriously.
Your posts are very much appreciated. I'm just giving my opinion on the article itself.
And no, of course I don't believe the buyout rumor lol.
Nice words, but it's clearly biased considering that the author owns NTRP shares.
I also noticed that one of the analyst reports were written by a company that acted as a financial advisor for the offering.
It will be hard to convince people we're legit if all the positive articles are written by people with a financial interest in this company.
An accelerated approval based on P2 results would certainly be nice.
Thanks. Looks like it's gonna be a pretty uneventful first half of the year then.
Maybe the price will do a run up during this time, but I'm not too worried about markets anymore considering we already have funding secured for the next couple of years.
Anyone know if there are any other upcoming milestones, or is it just a bunch of presentations before they announce results this fall?
While I am disappointed in the timing of the offering, I don't feel like it was due to anything but bad luck. Existing investors would probably have agreed to the offering even if the price had been twice as high.
They've probably planned on raising more cash this quarter for a while now and we just happened to be unlucky enough to have it happen at the same time as the market decided to take a big ol' dump.
Either way, the science hasn't changed and the price is looking more attractive than ever.
It's only a matter of time before either the market stops dropping or index funds/panicked investors run out of shares to sell. Until then, you can see this as Santa giving you an opportunity to buy more shares at even better prices.
Merry Christmas!
That's just for the production though. Neurotrope will still have to run clinical trials with it, since Bryologyx is focusing on cancer and HIV instead.
A BP partner could also help us with marketing & distribution.
Most likely for an eventual P3 for AD and a few P2s for other indications.
Either way, it should keep them afloat for an additional two years or so, and by then they will hopefully have found a partner that will fund development of the synthetic version in return for a % of revenues.
Honestly, if this is the last time we get diluted like this, I'll forgive management for the little stunt they pulled with this offering.
If positive results push the price over $32, we'll have almost $100 million flowing into the company through exercised warrants and options.
Phase 1 trials are really just for testing safety, which isn't necessary for Bryostatin considering how it's been tested earlier in much higher doses for decades.
They might need a P1 for the synthetic version though. That's probably also what they'll use to develop the oral version of the drug.
Lots of resistance at $4. Looks like this thing is ready to reverse soon.
I did read about the two new board members, yes.
I don't see how that is bigger news than the offering though, since we already have an impressive team of people working with this company.
Well the price doesn't really matter anymore since the company can keep on trucking no matter what the market says.
All that's left now is to see how the world reacts to results next summer.
lol that's true I guess. Maybe I'm just being greedy.
Sitting on a multi-billion dollar drug with 25 million outstanding shares is still a pretty good deal, but I'd be happier if we had stayed below 20 million shares.
The only good thing about these news is that at least we don't have to worry about funding anymore.
This better be the last time. 25 million outstanding shares is more than enough dilution for me.