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ALUMINUM FACTS YOU MIGHT NOT KNOW:
Aluminum is the most abundant metal on our planet, and third most abundant element after oxygen and silicon, amounting to some 8.3% of all atoms in the Earth's crust. With an atomic weight of 13, it is the 13th lightest element out of 115 elements known to man. It was used in the middle ages as an astringent and dye, and was named "alum" in old French, derived from the Latin "alumen" meaning bitter salt.
Aluminum is used today for so much more than it ever was. It is almost everywhere - from soda cans to food packaging, computers to electronic devices, automobiles to aircraft and spacecraft. Its resistance to corrosion makes it ideal for any application that comes into contact with moisture, such as food packaging and automobiles. Its light weight gives it an unmatched strength-to-weight ratio, making it indispensable in applications that require strength where weight must be kept low, such as in both aircraft and spacecraft and new lightweight electric cars.
This brings up a serious question: Lower aluminum prices will naturally result is demand growth for finished aluminum products. As an example, cast aluminum wheels are showing up more and more in commercial trucks, cars, motorcycles and everything else that rolls along. Use of aluminum pots and pans and kitchen utensils is growly like crazy in all third world countries. It use for door knobs, window frames, siding, roofing, and other construction products is also growing at a fantastic pace. It's even use in toasters, refrigerators, and in indoor and outdoor furniture and golf clubs, and on and on and on and on. This means that lower prices might not be the worse thing to happen to Alcoa Aluminum since we are now headed towards manufacturing products and away from mining the metal. In other words, the way Alcoa is headed, it might emerge as the world's #1 manufacturer of aluminum products with a small interest in mining and smelting. Bottom line is that we might be facing a win-win situation no matter whether aluminum gets cheaper or increases in price. In the long pull, cheaper prices might even be better for AA's bottom line.
"No other metallic element can be used in so many ways across such a variety of domains, like in the home, in transport, on land, sea and in air, and in industry and commerce," said physics researcher Sam Davyson. -link-
Aluminum is also one of the most environmentally friendly metals, as its recycling requires only 5% of the energy used to produce new aluminum from ore to finished product, while still retaining almost 100% of its natural pre-recycled qualities. WOW... how you like them apples?
With so much going for it, aluminum is not only here to stay, but is continually becoming more and more popular as the metal of choice in manufacturing almost everything. As such, makers of aluminum products should be considered bell-weathers whose performances portend the next direction of industrial production and the state of manufacturing. In other words, we are not investing and old industry but in one that stands at the doorway to the future.
And in front of us with have this opportunity to STEAL THE SHARES of what is soon to be the world's largest manufacturer of spaceage aluminum products.
ARE YOU BEGINNING TO SEE WHY I AM BULLISH ON AA?
At this point Alcoa (AA) is trying new things to boost shares and broaden its business. The newest take that the company is looking into is 3D printing jet engine parts.
The company is investing $22 million in Hot Isostatic Pressing (HIP) technology at its facility in Whitehall, Michigan. Alcoa expects that this investment will allow it to capture growing demand for advanced titanium, nickel and 3D-printed parts for the world’s best selling jet engines.
Ultimately this investment supports Alcoa’s strategy to build its value-add business for profitable growth and greater innovation in the aerospace market. Alcoa expects global aerospace sales growth in the range of 9% to 10% in 2015. At the same time this sales growth is expected to be driven by strong deliveries across the large commercial aircraft, regional jet and business jet segments. Separately, Alcoa Power and Propulsion is expected to generate $2.2 billion in revenues by 2016 as a result of its organic growth expansions.
Olivier Jarrault, Executive Vice President and Alcoa Group President, Engineered Products and Solutions, commented on the investment:
As aerospace growth soars, Alcoa continues to invest in the latest technologies, creating added capacity to capture fast-growing demand. Combined with our expansions in LaPorte, Indiana and Hampton, Virginia, and our growing 3D printing capabilities, this investment will give Alcoa the broadest capabilities to deliver high-quality titanium, nickel and 3D-printed parts for the world’s best-selling jet engines.
The city of Whitehall is further supporting Alcoa’s investment by approving a 12-year Industrial Facilities Tax Exemption valued at over $1 million.
This announcement comes at a good time for Alcoa, as shares are just above their 52-week lows and are in definite need of a boost.
However analysts might view this differently and potentially as a buy opportunity. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of ~$15.
Alcoa Performing Strongly Despite Low Aluminum Prices
by Stuart Burns on JULY 14, 2015 -link-
CONDENSED
Looking purely at the aluminum price one might have expected Alcoa, Inc., to report a dire results in its latest second quarter but quite the contrary. While facing considerable “headwinds” according to Klaus Kleinfeld, the company’s chief executive, the firm has put out a decent set of results.
Alcoa’s strategy of closing high-cost smelters, migrating to lower cost primary production in the Middle East, and diversifying into other alloys and downstream higher value-add products has clearly paid dividends for the New York-based multinational.
Diversification Paying Off
The share price is down 33% for the year because the business is exposed to lower aluminum prices. Regardless, Alcoa still made a profit from primary smelting overall. Its upstream activities made $67 million after taxes, down from $97 million for the same period in 2014. A strong performance from the alumina division added a further $215 million of net income compared to $210 million for the specialized metals and components business. Alcoa is gradually exiting the smelter business, at least outside of it’s low-cost Middle East operations, but it’s not going to want to exit the stellar alumina business.
On the other hand, revenues —boosted by acquisitions and value-add investments — were slightly stronger than expected at $5.9 billion, up 1%, compared with an average forecast of $5.8 billion.
Looking forward, the firm sees good growth in the US market, with Europe gradually improving. Slower growth in China and South America is still expected. Some markets, such as global heavy truck demand, are seen by the firm as likely to remain depressed but aerospace and construction are expected to continue to do well.
Although Alcoa operates in a highly dynamic cost environment, it continues to perform well despite an appalling primary metal price. Its strategy of downstream investment and alloy diversification is ensuring it remains a viable long-term business in spite of the current state of the market.
The new Ford F-150, with an updated body made of aluminum from Alcoa, got a top safety rating from the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA).
Ford previously committed to changing the F-150 from a steel body to a 97% aluminum body, and the aluminum is provided by the Alcoa works in Riverdale. Replacing the steel with aluminum improved the F-150’s fuel efficiency and reduced its weight by 700 pounds.
The NHTSA gave its top five-star crash test safety rating to the newer version of the F-150 Super Crew 4×4 and 4×2 models, made with the Alcoa aluminum.
-link-
THE GOOD NEWS!
Shares of Alcoa (NYSE:AA) were the target of a significant decrease in short interest in the month of July. As of July 31st, there was short interest totalling 63,452,488 shares, a decrease of 18.6% from the July 15th total of 77,984,246 shares, AnalystRatings.NET reports. Currently, 5.0% of the company’s shares are sold short. Based on an average daily volume of 20,533,384 shares, it would have taken the shorts 3 days to clear at the end of July. I expect we will see a bigger drop in short interest for the first half of August and even more for the second half of August. Dropping short interest is a strong OVERSOLD signal. My guess is that short interest now stands at ~1.5% or less.
___________________________
Check out the institutional holdings. link
See who owes AA. Notice also that 770 Institutional Holders hold a total 889,886,721 shares. 94 institutions sold out and 74 new institutions bought in. Look at the names--some of tops institutions in the world have heavy bets on AA. I like that.
If you look at the "total shares" you can see that a lot of institutions sold a limit numbers of shares and a lot of others bought a limited number of shares. They did not close out their positions; they simply added a little or sold a little. The picture I get here is that at least 90% of our daily trading is done by institutions. But we have to keep in mind that institutions sell for many reasons like raising a little cash, reducing their exposure based on the current buying and selling by their own customers, and maybe 10 other reasons. On the other hand, they only BUY for one reason and that is the PROFIT POTENTIAL they see looking forward. When institutional buying and selling is relatively balanced, as it is with AA, you can view it as a positive indicator. Said differently, we KNOW the buying has only one purpose whereas the purpose of the selling can be for many reasons.
The more I dig, the more positive things I find to offset the one big negative and that is China illegally flooding the market trying to push other out of business. I have first hand experience here. I was in the bulk vitamin and herb business in the 1990's when China started export tons of bulk nutrients into the US. My customers were beating my price by 50%. They were buying fake nutrient powders and didn't know it. The big drugs companies that made 99.9% pure products just stopped their production and walked away. I switch to the Chinese poison and with a month my customers were all complaining and I was forced out of business. Letting China goods into the US was the worst mistake the US has ever made.
I see China as a stupid bull in china shop. I'm not like the talking heads on Bloomberg TV. I don't see demand growth coming to an end if China crashes. Instead I see India, Africa, Asia, Russia, and many other nations picking up speed. China didn't create demand growth, it stole it from the rest of world. Now that Chinese citizens have a taste of money, it's gonna be impossible for the communist party to put the genie back in the bottle. What's happening right now in China is good for China and may even spell the end of communism. The worse thing that ever happen to the communist party was to give the citizens the freedom to buy and sell stocks and then take that freedom away.
And, what's gonna happen to China's economy when Donald Trump is elected president is going to be even worse for the communist. There gonna learn the hard way to quit cheating on trade and quit trying to put the whole world out of business. American will be strong again when we kick the idiot politicians out office office. This has got to happen; if it don't, say goodbye to America.
I also see Aluminum prices bouncing back strong. The drop in price is forcing the closing of all the world's out-dated smelters. Production will drop and demand will soar. It might takes some time, but the reward will be worth the wait.
WHY DID AA DROP?
First, this is not a general sell off. Yesterday is the first day that we've lost money went volume was near average. In fact, since the price dropped below $10, AA has trade less than 100 million shares.
The float is 1.2 billion shares. A billion in the US equals 1,000 million so we have traded only 1/1,000th of the tradeable shares since falling from $10. This means the price drop does not worry 999/1000th of the shareholders.
Besides, how many of the 100 million shares were trading by day traders? I would not be surprised if 50% of the volume was due to short term day trading. One day trader might trade 50,000 shares in a day. If so, the drop in price from $10 has occurred with only 500,000 legitimate shares changing hands.
Serious trading for AA would probably be close to 2 million shares a day.
Beside all the negative BS on Bloomberg's, it looks like a 1/2 million disgruntled shareholders were afraid that AA might not meet earning estimates for next quarter.
Selling out, especially at such cheap prices, makes no sense.
Let me explain a little more: The price of aluminum has been going down with all the other metals and commodities. We see the ton price on Bloombergs a hundred times per day. A small percentage of sellers get panicky and sell their AA because they see aluminum dropping on TV. What this means is that the current share price already reflects the drop in aluminum prices.
In other words, at $8.75 per share, a lower quarter is already baked into the cake. In fact, I'm of the opinion that even if AA misses by 5 cents, the stock will increase because the quarter will not be as bad most thought.
Here's another point. All the analysts following AA were warned during last quarter conference call that aluminum prices would be lower and there would be an oversupply of stocks in the next quarter. That's why the stock took dive after the last quarter was released.
In other words, there is not too much to worry about going forward. There also comes a time when a stock don't get much cheaper than book value regardless of rough bumps in the road just traveled. AA book value is $10.50 so how much worse can it get even if AA misses a little?
In other words, I don't see anything to worry about.
I was wrong when I said we've had too many sellers lately. Selling has not reach the average daily volume in 5 out of the last 6 days. I now think the problem is that many buyers are waiting on results of the next quarter, which I am sure is already over-baked into the share price.
The strong plus here is that 999/1,000th of the smart shareholders are holding tight to their shares. They were warned last quarter and all ready decided to hold. They also realize that aluminum prices are cheap and that management has been moving AA away from having to depend on aluminum holding a high price.
Bottomline is that buyers waiting on the next quarter before they buy in should wake up and realize that few stocks with AA potential sell at prices lower than book.
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL SAID:
Updated July 8, 2015 6:43 p.m. ET
Aluminum maker Alcoa Inc. reported a slight increase in profit, thanks to its strong aerospace and automotive divisions that narrowly made up for a global aluminum glut that continues to depress prices.
Alcoa, the first major U.S. company to report quarterly earnings, posted a profit of $140 million, or 10 cents a share, up from $138 million, or 12 cents a share, for the second quarter. Revenue rose 1% to $5.9 billion.
The price for raw aluminum remains the company’s weak spot. That price has fallen to under $1,700 a ton, down more than 10% since the start of the year as China floods global markets with steel, aluminum and other industrial metals. China’s aluminum exports rose almost 30% from a year ago to 2.9 million tons during the first five months of 2015. Its biggest customer is the U.S.
(That the US is China's #1 buyer without any import duties is going to chance just as soon as we electric Donald Trump. China is cheating everywhere and have no respect for the USA. WE damned sure do not need the junk products so vote for Trump so we can get back to American Made Products)
On Wednesday, Alcoa said its smelting division earned $67 million, a 31% drop from the $97 million it earned in the same period a year ago. The company’s average “third-party realized price,” which it charged outside customers, fell 5% to $2,180 a metric ton.
Alcoa has responded with efforts to rein in costs by investing heavily to close smelters with relatively high expenses, including the recent shuttering of its Pocos de Caldas smelter in Brazil. The company said it has cut smelting operating capacity by 1.5 million tons since 2007. Total capacity is now 3.4 million tons, of which 19% has been idled.
Alcoa has benefited from Ford Motor Co. and other auto makers buying aluminum to make their cars lighter to comply with new fuel-efficiency standards, a shift aluminum executives gleefully compare to beer companies abandoning steel cans in the 1970s.
Alcoa said automotive sheet revenue had increased “approximately 180 percent year-over-year” with its plant in Davenport, Iowa, shipping a “record volume.”
Overall, the global rolled products division, which makes sheets for the auto and beverage-can industries, reported operating earnings increased 9% to $76 million, led by growth in automotive sheet shipments.
Alcoa also has increased its focus on aerospace. The strategy is reflected in the company’s purchase last year of U.K. jet-engine parts maker Firth Rixson Ltd., and its acquisition this year of Pittsburgh-based RTI International Metals Inc., one of the world’s biggest makers of fabricated titanium products for the aerospace industry.
The recent acquisitions are “fully on track,” said CEO Klaus Kleinfeld. The business that produces alumina, the raw material used to make aluminum, “delivered its best first half since 2007 and our lower cost metals business showed resilience in the face of strong market headwinds,” he added.
The engineered-products business, which makes screws, bolts and other airplane parts, and wheels for trucks, reported operating earnings grew 4% to $210 million with a boost from acquisitions and higher volumes. And projections aerospace sales growth have nearly doubled to 13% by 2017, from a previous estimate of 6%.
25 million shares sold; 25 million weak hands taken out! Obviously, the majority of the 1.2 billion shares float held on ignoring this little dip. As far as I am concerned, today was a super bargain day. I day traded all day long and ended up lowering my average share price to $8.80 so I'm setting good right now. I recall a lot of days like this in my 30 years of trading stocks. I cannot recall any day when the DOW dropped 500+ points that was not followed by a powerful bounce back the next few trading days. There is no doubt, at $8.73, Alcoa Aluminum is the bargain of the century! We'll see a lot of action on Monday!
Happy Week-end!
George Soros
Ask any hedge-fund manager for a list of peers who have made the biggest impact on the industry in the past 40 years, and Soros is likely to be near the top.
Unlike Buffett, Soros is continuously moving in and out of various investments depending on his ever-shifting economic views, and that means the names he buys in any one quarter might be sold the following quarter.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) shares closed the last trading session at 9.03. In the current trading session the stock reached as high as 8.98 and dipped down to 8.79. Alcoa Inc. Common Stock, a NYQ listed company, has a current market cap of 10.75B and on average over the past 3 months has seen 20918000 shares trade hands on a daily basis.
On a technical level the stock has a 50 Day Moving Average of 10.02. Based on a recent trade, this puts the equity at -12.31% away from that average. In looking at the 200-day average, the stock is -30.59% away from that mark. In comparing the stock’s current level to its extended history, the stock is trading -50.48% away from its 52-week high of 17.75 and +0.00% away from the stock’s low point over the past 52 weeks, which was 8.79.
There are a number of sell-side research brokerages which cover the stock and offer projections on earnings and future stock movement. On a consensus basis, analysts have a one year target price of 13.64. The company has a trailing 12-month EPS of 0.48. The consensus analyst estimates according to First Call for the next quarter is 0.15. The current year EPS estimate on the stock is 0.80 and the EPS estimate for next year sits at 0.92.
The price to earnings ratio, or the valuation ratio of a company’s current share price compared to its per-share earnings sits at 18.31. This is an important indicator as a higher ratio typically suggests that investors are expecting higher future earnings growth compared to companies in the same industry with lower price to earnings ratios. When calculating in the EPS estimates for the current year from sell-side analysts, the Price to current year EPS stands at 10.99. Potential shareholders looking further ahead, will note that the Price to next year’s EPS is 9.55.
Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA) produces and manages primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina worldwide. The company operates through four sections: Alumina, Primary Metals, Global Rolled Products, and Engineered Products and Solutions. The Alumina section is involved in mining bauxite, which is then refined into alumina. The Primary Metals section produces primary aluminum. The Global Rolled Products section produces and sells aluminum plates, sheets, and foils, as well as rigid container sheets for food and beverage packaging markets. The Engineered Products and Solutions section offers titanium, super alloy investment, and aluminum castings; fasteners; aluminum wheels; integrated aluminum structural systems; architectural extrusions; and forgings and hard alloy extrusions. The company?s products are primarily used in the transportation, including aerospace, automotive, truck, trailer, rail, and shipping; packaging; building and construction; oil and gas; defense; consumer electronics; brazing; power generation; and industrial applications. Alcoa Inc. was founded in 1888 and is based in New York, New York.
The automobile industry has long been one of the key end markets for steel. Steel remains the most used metal in automobile manufacture, allowing automakers to achieve desired standards of strength and safety for their vehicles at relatively low costs vis-a-vis other materials. However, given that transportation remains one of the leading causes of air pollution in the U.S. and worldwide, there has been a tightening of regulation governing automobile emissions and fuel efficiency globally. Given the increasingly stringent regulations pertaining to automobile emissions and fuel efficiency, reducing the weight of automobiles has become an extremely important consideration for automakers. Steel is facing increasing competition from lighter materials such as aluminum, as automobile manufacturers look to reduce the weight of their vehicles in order to conform to these regulations. In this article, we will look at the current trends in steel usage by the automotive industry, the changing landscape of regulations governing automobile emissions and fuel efficiency, the implications for steel producers, and steps taken by these companies to rise to these challenges. Ultimately, we will try to answer the question: Will we be driving aluminum cars in ten years time?
Current Status of Steel Usage in the Automotive Industry
As per estimates by the World Steel Association, the automotive sector accounts for roughly 12% of the overall global steel consumption. [1] ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT), the world’s largest steel producer, is also one of the leading global producers of automotive steel, accounting for around 16.7% of the world’s automotive steel sheet market in 2014. [2]
Steel is currently the dominant material in automobile manufacturing, accounting for roughly 60% of the weight of an average automobile in North America. [3] However, in the light of changing requirements of automakers, this figure is likely to decline going forward.
Fuel Efficiency & Emissions Reduction Regulation
The primary reason why steel could lose out to other materials such as aluminum going forward in automotive applications, is the changing requirements of automakers, driven by regulations governing fuel efficiency and emissions reduction. For example, the U.S. government has targeted a doubling of average automobile fuel efficiency in the U.S. from 27.5 miles per gallon in 2012, to 54.4 miles per gallon in 2025. [4] In the EU, existing regulations target a reduction in automobile emissions from 130 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer in 2015, to 95 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer in 2021. [5] These regulations are indicative of the global emphasis on improving fuel efficiency and reducing emissions. There currently are no targets for emissions reductions or fuel efficiency improvement in China. However, with the Chinese government committing to cap greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, there may be similar regulation imposed in China, the world’s largest automobile market, in the near future. [6]
One of the ways to improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions is to reduce the weight of the automobile. As a rough guideline, a 12 kilogram reduction in the weight of an automobile saves roughly one gram of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per kilometer. [7] Given the stringent targets for fuel efficiency and emissions reduction, technological improvements in engine technology alone are unlikely to be sufficient to achieve the targets in the given timeframe. [8] This necessitates a reduction in the weight of automobiles, opening the door for aluminum to challenge steel’s position as the pre-eminent material for automotive applications.
Challenge to Steel from Aluminum
As shown in the figure below, aluminum offers superior weight savings as compared to materials such as high strength steels, though at slightly higher costs .
Steel and Other Materials, Source: Ernst & Young
As a result of the need to make their cars lighter, manufacturers have been incorporating a greater proportion of aluminum into their vehicles. In North America, average aluminum content in automobiles has increased by 44.3 pounds per vehicle between 2012 and 2015. [9] This corresponds to an increase in the percentage contribution of aluminum to the average curb weight of an automobile in North America from 9% in 2012 to 10.4% in 2015. [9] As per projections by Ducker Worldwide, average aluminum content in cars in North America is set to increase to 19% of a car’s curb weight by 2025. [9] Since aluminum is a lighter metal than steel, the increase in terms of volume of aluminum used in an average automobile is a better reflection of the increase in the scope of application of the metal. The volume share of aluminum in automobiles is expected to rise from 6.6% in 2015 to 26.6% in 2025. [9]
Volume Share of Aluminum in Automobiles in North America, Source: Ducker Worldwide
Given the favorable regulatory environment, the scope of aluminum as a material used in automobile manufacturing is certainly set to increase. Aluminum producers such as Alcoa (NYSE:AA) have been increasingly focusing on their automotive end markets to capitalize on this opportunity. Though the automotive end market accounted for only 5% of Alcoa’s revenues for the first half of 2015, the company’s revenues from its automotive customers grew 50% year-over-year in the first half of 2015. [10] In order to counteract the threat from aluminum, steelmakers have invested heavily to produce solutions for the automotive industry.
Response from Steelmakers
Steel companies such as ArcelorMittal and U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) are investing heavily to produce advanced high-strength steels, in order to maintain steel’s position as the material of choice for the automotive industry. Advanced high strength steels have minimum tensile strengths of 500 to 800 Megapascals (MPa), as compared to around 200 MPa for conventional steels. [11] These steels offer significant weight savings as compared to traditional steels of comparable strengths.
ArcelorMittal has collaborated with Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) in order to develop steel solutions that cater to the manufacturers’ requirements in terms of weight reduction as well as safety. [2] Examples of success stories from these collaborations are ArcelorMittal’s proprietary S in Motion steels which provide 19% weight savings for a typical C-Segment vehicle. [12] In addition, the company has also unveiled other classes of advanced high strength steels such as the proprietary Usibor and the Fortiform range of steels, tailored specifically for automotive applications. [7] Around 30% of ArcelorMittal’s R&D budget is devoted to developing solutions for the automotive market. [7] Similarly, U.S. Steel’s proprietary DUAL TEN and TRIP range of steels are also targeted towards the automotive sector.
What the Future Holds
As mentioned previously, steel companies are investing heavily to produce solutions for the automobile industry. The fate of steel vis-a-vis other materials such as aluminum would largely depend on how successful the steel companies are in producing new lightweight materials at competitive prices to aluminum. In addition, advancements in material science and the production of alternative materials such as plastic composites at competitive prices are a threat to both aluminum and steel. At the current pace of development of lightweight steels, aluminum will certainly increase in application in automobiles. As mentioned previously, the application of aluminum may rise roughly fourfold to 26.6% by volume of an average automobile in North America. Thus, ten years from now, we may not be driving aluminum cars, but certainly cars with a much greater proportion of aluminum, than at present.
Alcoa (NYSE:AA) has been given a “BB+” credit rating by Morningstar. The firm’s “BB+” rating suggests that the company is an above-average default risk. They also gave their stock a five star rating.
A number of other analysts have also recently commented on AA. Cleveland Research initiated coverage on shares of Alcoa in a research note on Wednesday, April 22nd. They set a “neutral” rating for the company. Standpoint Research raised shares of Alcoa from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $18.00 price target for the company in a research note on Friday, May 1st. JPMorgan Chase & Co. restated a “neutral” rating and issued a $15.00 price objective (down from $16.50) on shares of Alcoa in a report on Thursday, May 7th. Sanford C. Bernstein reiterated an “outperform” rating and set a $22.00 target price on shares of Alcoa in a report on Thursday, May 7th. Finally, Sterne Agee CRT lowered shares of Alcoa from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating and raised their price objective for the company from $11.93 to $12.00 in a report on Monday, June 22nd. One analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, nine have given a hold rating, ten have issued a buy rating and one has issued a strong buy rating to the company. The company presently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a consensus target price of $16.81.
Alcoa (NYSE:AA) opened at 9.19 on Thursday. The stock has a market capitalization of $11.24 billion and a P/E ratio of 19.15. The firm’s 50-day moving average is $10.08 and its 200 day moving average is $12.69. Alcoa has a 12 month low of $9.10 and a 12 month high of $17.75.
Alcoa (NYSE:AA) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, July 8th. The company reported $0.19 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.23 by $0.04. The firm had revenue of $5.90 billion for the quarter. During the same period last year, the business earned $0.18 earnings per share. The firm’s revenue was up 1.0% compared to the same quarter last year. On average, equities analysts anticipate that Alcoa will post $0.80 earnings per share for the current year.
The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be distributed on Tuesday, August 25th. Stockholders of record on Friday, August 7th will be given a $0.03 dividend. This represents a $0.12 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 1.32%. The ex-dividend date is Wednesday, August 5th.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) is participated in lightweight metals engineering and manufacturing. The Company operates in four segments: Alumina, Primary Metals, Global Rolled Products, and Engineered Merchandise and Alternatives. Its products, which include aluminum, titanium and nickel, are used in aircraft, cars, commercial transportation, packaging, building and construction, oil and gas, defense, consumer electronics, and industrial applications around the globe. It manages and also creates primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina combined, including technology, mining, refining, smelting, fabricating, and recycling, through its active participation in the facets of the business. The Organization has investments and running actions in Australia, Brazil, China, Guinea, Iceland, Russia and Saudi Arabia, among others. It produces three dimensional (3D-printed) titanium, specialty metals and plastic components for aerospace, medical and energy applications.
Most recently for the quarter ending on 2015-06-30, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) posted a surprise factor of -17.39%. The company reported actual earnings of $0.19 which was $-0.04 away from what analysts were projecting on a consensus basis.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) is scheduled to next report earnings for the current quarter on 2015-10-08. Analysts are expecting earnings per share of $0.27. This is based on the 11 sell-side brokerages polled by Zacks Research. Institutional and retail investors alike will be paying close attention to the analyst estimate revisions leading up to the earnings announcement date.
Analyst Price Target
Wall Street brokerage analysts covering the company are projecting the stock to go to $14.09 on a short term basis. This is the consensus estimate from the 11 sell-side firms included in the Zacks consensus number. The firm seeing the most upside to the stock has a target of 18, while the most conservative price target sees the stock reaching $10.
Using Zacks simplified scale, the stock has a mean rating of 2.32. This is the mean calculation of the 2.32 ratings surveyed by Zacks, where 1 represents a Strong Buy and 5 represents a Strong Sell. Three months ago the stock had a 2.32 rating.
Alcoa Inc. (Alcoa) is engaged in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina combined, through its participation in technology, mining, refining, smelting, fabricating, and recycling. Alcoa’s products are used worldwide in aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, building and construction, oil and gas, defense, consumer electronics, and industrial applications. Alcoa is a global company operating in 31 countries. Alcoa’s operations consist of four worldwide reportable segments: Alumina, Primary Metals, Flat-Rolled Products, and Engineered Products and Solutions. On March 9, 2011, Alcoa completed an acquisition of the aerospace fastener business of TransDigm Group Inc.
George Soros, “The Man Who Broke the Bank of England,” has picked up a stake in Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) - a metals and mining company, with a focus on aluminum and alumina. The Soros Fund Management LLC, in a filing released earlier this week, revealed its purchase of 5,338,700 shares of Alcoa, at a total value of $59.5 million, during the second quarter.
The filing follows Alcoa’s stock hitting its 52-week low of $9.24 in during the trading session on August 18. The stock closed at $9.27, after losing 1.70% in yesterday’s trading session.
The meltdown of the commodity market has left companies in the industry struggling, with Alcoa losing 41.29% of its stock value, year-to-date (YTD). We, at Business Finance News, look at some of the probable reasons behind George Soros’ interest in the mining company at a time when the industry is going through a downturn.
Earnings
Alcoa reported a $5.9 billion top line figure in its second quarter ending June 30. The analysts’ estimate of $5.81 billion was surpassed due to the company’s strong growth in the downstream segment, which includes its aerospace, automotive and alumina businesses.
Re-strategizing
The appointment of Klaus Kleinfeld as Alcoa’s CEO has resulted in a revamp of the metal manufacturer’s business strategy. The company’s focus has been shifted from its traditional upstream commodity base to an expansion and development into midstream and downstream businesses. In 2014, the company’s upstream division brought in less than 50% of its After Tax Operating Income (ATOI) due to their high exposure to aluminum prices and the prevailing commodity slump.
Development of Downstream Division
Alcoa is primarily a mining company, but the recent commodity market slump and the weakening financials called for immediate change. The company has effectively decreased its upstream asset base through asset sales and closures of mines while expanding into downstream and midstream through acquisitions and divestitures.
Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A)
Alcoa has spread itself into the aerospace and automotive industry in an attempt to diversify its product mix. The company acquired RTI International (NYSE:RTI), which is a global supplier of titanium and specializes in metal products and services, in July 2015. The acquisition will aid in Alcoa rising to the top in aerospace solutions supplier through expansion of its Engineered Product Solutions (EPS) division. The acquisition is expected to cut the mining giant’s costs by around $100 million in 2019.
Furthermore, Firth Rixson, jet engine manufacturer will be purchased for $2.35 billion in cash and $500 million in stock. The deal, valued at $2.85 billion, is expected to close by the end of 2015. The acquisition is expected to boost Alcoa’s annual sales in the aerospace industry by 20%.
Aluminum Price Exposure
While Alcoa’s operations remained centered towards mining, their exposure to aluminum prices was high, with low prices weighing down on the company’s earnings. However, since the initiation of the mining company’s addition of value-added businesses to its portfolio, Alcoa’s top line figures have become less dependent on aluminum prices. Despite low aluminum prices, Alcoa’s revenue grew 1% year on year. The company has increased its asset base in midstream/downstream by more than 50% in 2015.
Stock Performance
Since early 2015, Alcoa’s 50-day moving average has been below the 200-day moving average; a potential “death cross”. However, bullish analyst forecasts have not taken this into consideration, as the 50-day moving average is not the best indicator of the company’s internal growth.
It is important to note that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing released by Soros’ Fund Management was for the time period of April 01 to June 30. Throughout the month of June, Alcoa’s stock remained in oversold territory, which points toward undervaluation. It left room for upward correction in the stock price, partially explaining Mr. Soros’ interest in the company. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has finally moved out of over-sold territory, it is still at 35.89, leaning towards oversold readings.
The stock price has been under the consensus price target since September 2014, which shows that even though Alcoa had been struggling, analysts remained bullish. As of today, 11 analysts have recommended a Buy and only one advises a Sell.
The 12-month consensus target price is $14.33, which implies upside potential of 54.58% over the stock’s closing price of $9.27, as of August 18.
12.5 million shares traded in 3 hours. At this rate, we might reach 24 million by the close. If so, I see the close moving back above $9.00. There is not a lot of resistance showing up my screens so it is possible if the volume stays high.
Lmao back at you... stock trading lesson 101... when a stock is under a lot of selling pressure by disgusted shareholders who want out, as is the case now with AA, the higher the volume, the faster you get rid of the sellers, the quicker the stock will return to it's real value. Another reason is that at the selling price AA is now trading, the new blood has a more positive outlook and will hold the stock for a longer pull as it returns up to its fair value, everything considered. Book value is over $10... there is no reason that AA will not return to at least book value after the current bunch of sellers is taken out. The higher the volume, the faster the weak shares are gone, the quicker we return to $10.00. Rolling in the floor LMAO!
No... I got 7 million right now
I don't know why but the level 3 trading looks absolutely normal and balanced. Sometimes the buy side pushes and then sometimes the sell side pushes. I LOVE the volume--6 million shares in the first hour. If this keeps up, I think we can take 20 million weak shares out easy today. We've traded 400,000 since I started this post. Really, volume is so damned important if you buying into or holding a down stock. We just need to get rid of the weak shares. Obviously, there are lots of shareholder looking at this a temporary nothings. Equally obvious, we are taking in a whole lot of buyers with a different strategy. Looks good....
I just bought 5m more at $8.81
i'm back!.... dumped the load yesterday at 9.03... bought the same load back at $8.87 average. The trading is hot and heavy and buyers and sellers seemed balanced on level 3. No sellers piling up at the gate. They want to sell but they don't seem to be so desperate.
Timing is bad, bad, bad... sell off all over the world... gold prices up 6%... currency war possible in Asia... many OPEC countries near bankruptcy... DOW down 250 points 3 days in a row.... Aluminum up $18.00 per ton and AA sellers still pushing the price down on extremely low volume... I'm starting to worry about the sanity of a long term play in this market.... I'm a strong bull for AA but not a bull against the whole world.
I also notice that crude is up 1.75%, but oil service stocks are down 2%. Its the same with AA, aluminum up 1.6% and AA is down about 1% on 50% of normal volume....
I think I'm going to start day trading AA and move back to holding it long when sanity returns and AA starts trading normal. I also worried about what might happen if the 1.22 billion AA float heads to the exits.
I'll still be here but I be in and out quick.
GLEN.L moved up a little so did Aluminum spot prices and so did AA buy side. Than GLEN.L retraced a little and so did aluminum spot and AA sell side got stronger. This is happening in front of my eyes but I still find it hard to believe. Now I am beginning to wonder if a lot of these shares are being swapped by day traders. They sure don't act like long term buy and hold. AA trading is a bit mysterious and one hell of a challenge.
Time will tell.
Aluminum prices moving up
BUY side now very strong...
GLEN.L up only 2.14% after yesterday 9% drop and selling pressure increasing for AA. But the whole market is down so its hard to say. The buy side for AA is 20% stronger now than the sell side.
It is interesting times that we are going through right now!
I think OPEC ought to back off before Brazil and Venezuela both crash. If these two countries follow Greece, we are in to some tough time ahead.
Yes, I sure did. WOW!
GLEN.L on the london exchange has retraced in the last 30 minutes. It's only up 2.5%. Aluminum is down a little from this morning's high, which goes hand and hand with the drop of GLEN.L -- I suggest putting the stock on watch and see if I am right.
The drop in GLEN.L did agree with the appearance of sellers willing to dump out at a cheaper price.
Level 111 looks more calm than yesterday. The sell side looks 10% bigger than the buy side, but it's not all bunched at or near the selling price... its spread out between $9.10 and $9.32. Right now it looks like the buyers are backing off hoping the sellers will chase them down. Maybe the buyers are also backing down on the signal from GLEN.L
We've already near 4 million shares in 1 hour of trading so, if this paces holds, we should get a lot of volume today and take out a whole bunch of weak shares.
As I said a few days back, we got legitimate sellers that want out at or near their entrance price so it will be a little slow moving back to $9.50
thanks 'chef911" It was nice of you and appreciated.
I now think what hurt us yesterday was the 10% drop posted by Glencore Plc (GLEN.L), the huge mining and metals conglomerate on the London exchange. The fall in profits spooked the whole world. I now think the heavy selling of AA and then the slowdown in the selling and then the heavy selling again will coordinate with the yesterday's trading on the London Exchange. In other words, when GLEN.L stock price bounced up, the selling of AA slacked off and then when GLEN.L started dropping like a strong, the selling of AA went crazy. GLEN.L is up 5.8% today and so are all the metals. I think a lot of buyers are using the trading price of GLEN.L as a buy/sell signal for metal mining companies.
KingDMC, thanks for the private message. I will follow your suggestion. Aluminum is up strong today so maybe will get that bounce I been saying will come. (It just now broke over 70 cents a lb and still moving up slowly.) It looks like all the metals are up!
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/Aluminum.html
I know I post a lot. The truth is that I am working on my own little project that I hope will help my predict stock prices based on tic by tic trading and using level 111. My system is not perfected but everything I see and learn about AA shows this stock to be a strong winner over a 6 to 12 month term. If I find something on the net that bearish, I also post it if it make sense. I put these message up for myself as a record of my feeling and the info at the time. The next day I go back over everything and playback the captured data looking for where I went wrong.
Anyway, thanks for input and thanks for going long with me.
SELLING PRESSURE IS OFF ~20%
Let's just hope it stays that way. I look back on the last 3 days and realize we just manage to break 10 million shares each day, 50% of normal volume. In fact, we've traded at 50% of normal volume ever since we slid off of $9.48. Thirty million shares for AA in 3 days is not a sell off. Even at noon today, when a few sellers went to lunch, the buy side ran the price up to $9.22 -- the stock wants to run north. When the stupid sellers come back from lunch, they quickly pressed the buyers and run the price back down to $9.12.
I've never seen sellers throw stocks at buyers when volume remained 50% below normal. I've seen many stocks sell off but always with at least a double or triple normal volume.
The point is simply; the drop from about $9.50 to $9.12 was caused by ignorant sellers... or maybe the selling was done by banker-types in a forced sell? The only way the trading makes make sense to me is if it was executed by someone that did not care too much about the selling price. It's mind blowing to watch AA sellers pushing the price down by throwing shares at the buy side.
Let's assume that 50% (15 million) of the shares were sold by legitimate sellers who were disgusted with AA. This leaves 15 million shares sold off by bankers who did not give a rat's ass about the selling prices. Under such a circumstance you get the same picture we have witnessed over the last 3 days.
I think it's plausible.
Anyway, the ignorant selling pressure is slowing and hopefully will end today and AA will close up a few pennies.
I'm gonna take a nap... happy tradings
buyers got the sellers right where they want them... in a panic, chasing the buyers down. The one with the most desperation losses. The sellers all piled up between $9.13 and $9.19. I really don't understand the sell side. The only thing that can turn this around is volume. If we average volume of 22 million we might take out these weak shares. I don't even care if the price falls to $9 as long as it means we get rid of them.
The only thing good about this is that the new owners will have a bright outlook and be willing to stick it out at least until the quarter in announced next month. If we beat estimates, we got a winner for sure. I we don't, then we got a problem. I feel certain we will beat.
buyers slowing showing up, sell side getting weak. Looks like we might break through in an hour or so.
Buyers went to the wrong party. Lots of bargains here. I don't understand the low open but I got me hand full. Hope everybody else did.
wow! No buy side pressure and no sell side pressure. everybody must be shocked by the drop. Oh well I picked up 5,000 shares at 9.15
ALCOA ENTERS THE CELL PHONE BUSINESS!
New, Sleeker Samsung Smartphone Built Stronger with Alcoa’s Aerospace-Grade Aluminum
Alcoa-invented material strengthens phone’s structure by 70 percent
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Lightweight metals leader Alcoa (NYSE:AA) today announced that it is supplying a high-strength, aerospace-grade aluminum to Samsung for its latest smartphones —the Galaxy S6 and S6 edge. This marks the first time the global electronic giant will use an aluminum frame for its Galaxy S flagship model. The Company’s aerospace-grade aluminum, 6013 Alcoa Power Plate™, is 70 percent stronger than standard aluminum used in similar devices, creating a thinner, lighter, sleeker design.
“When we designed the metal framed Galaxy S6 and S6 edge, it was important to find a strong yet light metal that would create a device capable of exciting our customers,” said DJ Koh, CTO and Executive Vice President of Mobile Communication Business at Samsung Electronics. ”Alcoa’s Power Plate is the perfect fit to create the phones that our customers want: thinner, lighter, and stronger.”
Smartphones with metal frames are expected to grow almost 250 percent1 by 2016 from 2014, creating stronger demand for aluminum to protect mobile devices. Developed by Alcoa Technical Center scientists, innovators in metal science, the Alcoa Power Plate aerospace-grade aluminum combines advanced strength and corrosion resistance for products that require superior durability.
”Alcoa’s Power Plate has been battle tested across aerospace, automotive and military uses, proving it can withstand the heavy use and tough treatment endured by mobile devices,” said Ray Kilmer, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer of Alcoa. “Samsung’s leading designers wanted to develop a thinner, sleeker device without sacrificing durability. Innovating with Samsung, Alcoa’s metallurgists identified a solution that gives the Galaxy one of the strongest and most durable aluminum bodies available on the market.”
Samsung Galaxy S6 phones with Alcoa Power Plate are now available globally.
Alcoa’s innovative technologies for the consumer electronics market support the Company’s broader strategy to grow its value-add portfolio. Other Alcoa consumer electronics solutions include ProStrength™, a proprietary surface finishing technology also using aerospace-grade aluminum for thinner, lighter and stronger mobile devices.
SMART MOVES FOR ALCOA!
Earth-shattering moves for Alcoa. In June 2014, it acquired Firth Rixson, a leading supplier of engine rings and forgings. Four months later, it opened the world’s largest aluminum-lithium (Al-Li) plant in Lafayette, Indiana. Earlier this month, it picked up Tital, a highly regarded German titanium (Ti) casting supplier. And just two weeks ago, Alcoa announced an agreement to purchase RTI, a major supplier of titanium and airframe parts. RTI is one of the four major suppliers of aerospace titanium mill product along with Timet, Allegheny Technologies and VSMPO Avisma.
These bold moves vault Alcoa into the top ranks of aerospace suppliers, with $5.6 billion in revenue from that industry. The RTI deal will boast a near-complete process portfolio spanning Al and Ti mill product: melting, forging, casting, extrusion, machining and additive manufacturing. Once highly dependent on aerostructures, Alcoa is now one of the largest aero-engine suppliers with leadership positions in investment castings, rings and fasteners. Aluminum sheet and plate—Alcoa’s signature product—will account for less than 20% of its aerospace revenue.
Why is the once-conservative Aluminum Co. of America reinventing itself? The story begins roughly a decade ago, when Boeing announced that the 787 would be a high-composite- and titanium-content aircraft; Airbus did the same with the A350. Surely other aircraft OEMs also would forego aluminum, and Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 replacements, expected in the 2010s, might head this way as well. The future for aluminum appeared bleak. This was a clarion call for portfolio diversification into new materials, processes and customers. Alcoa needed to become a solutions supplier rather than a purveyor of aluminum. It was also a wake-up call for Alcoa and other aluminum suppliers to innovate and improve their competitiveness versus composites and titanium. This helped to kick-start development of new alloys such as aluminum-lithium. Today, Alcoa is on its third generation of Al-Li, which is finding new applications such as the fan blades in Pratt & Whitney’s geared turbofan. And aeroengine OEMs are now a major customer group, in contrast to Alcoa’s traditional dependence on aircraft OEMs and aerostructures companies.
Another catalyst undoubtedly was the acquisition binge by arch-rival Precision Castparts, which made eight acquisitions in fiscal 2013 alone, including leading titanium supplier Timet. With Timet no longer available, this left RTI as the only realistic option for Alcoa to acquire to expand into titanium mill product, with Russian supplier VSMPO Avisma (not available) and specialty materials giant Allegheny Technologies (potentially too big and risky) as the alternatives.
Finally, Alcoa’s customers are encouraging sub-tier supplier consolidation. As highlighted in my September 2013 column, OEMs are trying to simplify their supply chains and desire more “near net shape” and finished components. They also believe vertically integrated suppliers will allow them to capture the massive amount of scrap raw material, also known as revert, that is generated by aerospace manufacturing. Some $8 billion in raw material—80% of the total consumption—ends up on shop floors as revert rather than finished aircraft and aeroengines. The new mantra is “closed-loop raw material ecosystems” that are more efficient, leaner and greener.
Alcoa’s aggressive moves are not limited to aerospace. The big news at this year’s Detroit Auto Show was Ford’s wholesale adoption of aluminum into its best-selling F-150 pickup, reducing vehicle weight by 700 lb. Ford’s decision to replace steel with aluminum was every bit as cataclysmic in the automotive sector as Boeing’s decision to embrace composites and titanium on the 787. Automotive OEMs are pursuing advanced materials to improve fuel economy just like their aircraft counterparts. And aerospace, as always, is at the forefront of materials technology. North American automotive sheet demand is projected to increase a staggering 1,800% between 2012 and 2025 to reach 1.8 million metric tons. Alcoa has a huge new opportunity but will need to bring its execution “A Game” to the demanding automotive sector.
Despite all of the good news, Alcoa is not without challenges. Clearly, it has a major post-merger integration task to execute with Tital and RTI. Customer price pressure is unrelenting, and it will need to prove that vertical integration and closed-loop ecosystems create genuine value for customers. At the corporate level, industrial demand for aluminum is slowing down in China and other emerging markets, which will be a drag on the larger non-transportation portion of its business. It also needs to continue to purge upstream capacity in mines, which Wall Street views as a drag on enterprise value.
Challenges aside, Alcoa is in the vanguard of a new type of mega-supplier that will transform the aerospace supply chain for years to come. One thing is for certain: This isn’t your father’s Alcoa.
http://aviationweek.com/advanced-machines-aerospace-manufacturing/opinion-bold-moves-reposition-once-staid-alcoa
Yesterday's Sellers Were Desperate: I watched on level 3 as they stacked up near the last trade price. The buyers were there also in large numbers. But the sellers were trying to push in front of each other and get their shares sold. I even though that some large holders were being sold out (force sell) due to financial troubles. The eagerness of the sellers pushed the price down. I watched the buyers back down a little letting the seller come down to them.
Here's another point about AA:
Roughly 60% of AA's share price is tied to the price of aluminum. As aluminum drops, mining companies slow or stop producing aluminum. Its just like the oil service business, as crude drops so does the price of oil service companies. China is acting like OPEC, overproducing to lower prices. This has been going on with Aluminum since July 2011 when the metal was selling for $1.20 per lb. It's now down 46% to $0.69 per lb. Lots of mining companies have stop producing aluminum and more have cut back. It's like crude, CAPEX spending drops. When this happens, the supply of aluminum slowly drops and prices return back to normal. Here's a recent video in which a mining expert flatly states that he expects prices to move back to normal by the end of this year. If you believe this guy, then you got to jump into to AA right now! The stock will certainly be a 50% gainer by the end of the 2015!
The video is here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-19/glencore-ceo-glasenberg-says-no-one-can-read-china-right-now?cmpid=yhoo
chef911, I agree! An investor in AA needs to look towards the future and not be guided by the past. AA did get beat up in previous years, but the new CEO took over in 2008 and has done marvelous job of turning the direction of the company around. They are now into supplying parts of airlines, military aircraft, automobiles, commercial trucking, and whole lot of other areas. Aluminum is an underused metal and demand will increase as our economy recovers. I've read everything I could find twice and I strongly believe this will be one of the hottest stocks in 2016. This will be especially true if we elect Mr. Trump. I really believe he will recapture our heavy industry and manufacturing that the stupid politicians gave to China and Mexico and Japan.
Jid3294, I don't think AA is going down much further. The strong attraction at 9.27 has got to pull some new buyers. The problem, as I see it, is that a lot of shareholders are discussed; they been riding the stock down for 2-3 months and finally decided they can't take no more. Many funds, insurance companies, and other investment schemes have limits to how long they can hold a losing investment. There is also a lot shifting money around to buy something the fund might consider a better short term investment. In other words, there's maybe a hundred reason why there has been selling pressure, including the fact that would aluminum prices have been down.
On the opposite side of the coin, the strong selling has been countered with strong buying. That AA dropped in share price is a function of who was more desperate, the sellers to sell out or the buyers to buy in. The desperation curve changes the lower the price gets. The low price increases the desire by the buyers to load and reduced the desire by the sellers to sell.
I think we will see AA start a long climb back. But don't expect the price to rocket up because there are surely a lot shares just waiting on a little price increase to sell out. If I had any dry powder, I'd be loading the wagon as soon as pre-market opens. The reason is that AA did not drop at the close. Instead, it came up a little. This tells you that the buyers were a tiny bit more desperate than the sellers. The sign that the sellers are more desperate is when the stock price dives in the last 5 minutes of trading.
But you can't read a lot into the close because a rise in price is also a sign that shorts are clearing their position.
Also keep in mind that I'm trying desperately to make more sense out of a day's trading than most. The reason I post a lot is so I can read my own messages and then try to analyze price behavior as compared to my thinking at the time. It's a form of technical analysis but more on a minute by minute basis. Maybe I'm a fool, but I do have fun doing it.
Bad Day at Black Rock.... volume too low -- not enough buyers to take out the sellers. Oh well, I'm still hanging tight.