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Wade - You forgot "Window Dressing" 1st quarter ends Friday. Gotta have all those mutual fund statements looking good!
This is the S&P 70DMA, will it test the bottom of it's channel as it has for almost 3 years?
MSGI - Wade - Len - All - Recession
I have been more and more curious about technical analysis and wanted to put this DOW chart up. It was drawn by Bud Rolfs at TFNN.com. He called the pull back 3 days before it happened based on the over extended condition in ALL of the global markets simultaneously. He is now saying we are near the top of the "countertrend" bounce, and the market will run out of steam and go to the bottom of the current channel.
What do the T/A Savvy here think?
NATURAL GAS REPORT
http://www.cornerstoneenergy.com/marketnews/mi032307.pdf
Good summary report!
Len - Do you get "Basic Points"? You would like this months issue and how Coxe describes the sub prime lenders!
Kipp
I will email "Basic Points" to anyone who wants me to put them on the list. Just send me a PM and you will get it when I get it.
Don Coxe can also be heard every Friday on his weekly address at this link:
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/#
Kipp
WORTHYLION - Blue Pearl -
The wild card for earnings is the impact of the newly aquired Thompson Creek Mine. It was a private company and no numbers were made public. Blue Pearl took on big debt to make the purchase. They have stated a 1 million dollar per day cashflow. Moly prices are going up. Sprott is going to trade moly futures contracts next month, allowing speculators to trade moly.
The only concern I have is a short term possibility of a general market sell off.
Blue Pearl is a great long term investment.
My 2 cents.
Good Luck!
Kipp
littlefishi - TRGD - Bobwins Junior Miners Board
Littlefishi,
Bobwins commented on the TRGD 10KSB on his "Junior Miners" Board. Here is the link:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18107846
If you are interested in miners/base metals it is a great spot. We have identified many multi-baggers over there and done very well.
Good Luck!
Kipp
Bobwins - TRGD - You might get invited to Thanksgiving dinner with all of those relatives you got in to TARA!!
Happy for you today!
Kipp
KB HOMES - Earnings
OUCH!
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070322/20070322005378.html?.v=1
stock_peeker - Thanks for posting gappers in the morning!
Tara Gold - 10KSB
Bob,
Here is the link:
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?FilingID=5049046&Type=HTML
I have not read it yet. Let us know what you think.
Kipp
december - Some Moly Stocks
Here are the tickers for Moly stocks:
BLE.TO
ROK.V
MOL.TO
AUA.V
GPXM.OB
WEX.V
WM.TO
WRY.TO
NCV.V
RMKMF.PK
Good Luck!
Kipp
OK cl001 - If the Nick boys go wild you have to swear that you WILL NOT play the "Nick Boys Gone Wild" video, please, please, no way!!!!
avandalay - give us some tung tickers?
What tungsten stocks do you like?
Kipp
MOLY GIRLS GONE WILD!!!
FHA Loans -
It looks like they are going to prolong the agony, printing more money and issuing bonds to bail out sub-prime borrowers using FHA.
In a non appreciating real estate market, the problem for all of the folks that have no savings is that from the instant they buy a house or get a new loan, they are locked into the house with no way to get out. If the house costs $200,000 and 1 year later is worth $180,000, figuring a 6% realtor commission, the owner has to cough up $32,000 to get out.
GAME OVER!
Do you guys remember the HUD auctions in the mid 80's.....they'll be back!
Kipp
FHA loans getting easier to use
| With the subprime mortgage industry in virtual free fall, where do home buyers with less than perfect credit turn for financing?
The news reports are grim: Not only have dozens of subprime lenders closed their doors or cut back sharply on new mortgage offerings, but they're also severely tightening the loose underwriting standards that got them into trouble. As a result, many people who would have been approved for a loan months ago now find all the doors suddenly closed.
But here's some potentially helpful news: There is a mortgage source that is actually expanding its business nationwide for credit-impaired and first-time home purchasers. That source is the golden oldie of the mortgage arena ? the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), which recently has seen a doubling of customers refinancing out of private, subprime loans into its insured mortgage programs.
There's good reason: FHA doesn't have problems with Wall Street investors who now see subprime mortgage bonds as toxic. FHA's bonds, by contrast, are gilt-edged and backed by the federal government so there's no shortage of mortgage money.
Equally important: FHA-insured loans are more consumer-friendly than subprime, and come with interest costs roughly 3 percentage points below directly comparable subprime mortgages.
There are drawbacks, of course. FHA mortgage maximums top out just under $363,000. In the very highest-cost markets, an FHA loan will only let you buy a modest starter home. Yet in more typical markets around the country, FHA's limit does not pose a problem. And FHA's maximum loan amounts are likely to increase: Bipartisan legislation to raise the loan ceiling to the full Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac limit ? currently $417,000 ? is expected to be introduced on Capitol Hill shortly, and appears to have support for passage this year.
Another drawback for some borrowers is FHA's down-payment requirement. Unlike many subprime mortgage programs, FHA does not allow consumers to buy a house without putting something into the deal. Down payments generally are 3 percent, although the forthcoming congressional legislation is expected to lower that threshold.
Still further differences between FHA mortgages and subprime: You can't just ''state'' your income and get a loan with no documentation. You've got to show proof that you earn what you say, and can truly afford the house you want to buy. FHA never has offered ''payment option'' plans that allow borrowers to send in almost nothing per month while adding to their principal debt through what's known as negative amortization.
FHA is not known for razzle-dazzle, so don't look for controversial ''2/28'' or ''3/27'' adjustable rate plans that feature low payments in the first two or three years followed by sharply higher payments later. Many subprime users of 2/28 adjustables, who made zero down payments figuring they'd refinance before the first reset date, now face higher costs and negative equity positions in soft housing markets.
Some of those very borrowers are in serious default or heading for foreclosure. Others are bailing out of subprime 2/28 and refinancing with FHA. Unlike private competitors, FHA does not set rates on the basis of FICO credit scores; instead it underwrites loans using what it calls a ''total scorecard'' that examines an applicant's full credit history, employment, and nontraditional credit patterns such as rent and utilities payments. It does not disqualify anyone automatically because of a bankruptcy, and it emphasizes a holistic ''compensating factors'' approach to credit decision-making.
You might ask: If FHA is so wonderful, why has the private subprime market boomed while FHA's share of the market has withered ? at least until recently? Part of the reason is FHA itself. During the 1980s and '90s, FHA developed a reputation for bureaucratic red tape, slow processing and excessive rules on mandatory fix-ups of properties prior to sale.
FHA also did not forge ties with the fast-growing mortgage brokerage industry, which now originates nearly two-thirds of all new home loans. Instead, Wall Street seized the initiative and vacuumed up billions of dollars of broker-originated subprime loans through wholesale lenders, paying fat fees to keep the production lines rolling.
Many of those mortgages carried terms that credit-impaired applicants found hard to resist, especially in comparison to what FHA offered: No money down, no asset or income verification, debt-to-income ratios in excess of 50 percent, negative amortization up to 125 percent of the home's value, interest only and other reduced-payment concepts.
Those easy-money, no-questions-asked loans for people with bad credit habits are now the dodo birds of the mortgage market. Don't expect to find them at your local broker's office. Meanwhile, FHA is cutting out the red tape, speeding up processing and is eager to expand its business to credit-worthy borrowers who are willing to put a little of their money into home purchases.
NEW MOLY SITE!
I found this new (first time I have seen it) Moly site.
It has some new microcap moly miners profiled.
http://www.molyseek.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=21&Itemid=2
Kipp
Nickel Price Getting Ahead Of Itself?
LME NICKEL STOCKS ROSE 654 TONNES TO 4,302 TONNES
21 March 2007 09:00
"Indications at 7:55 am CST show nickel selling down by $.40/lb . Traders start this week with more than a few concerns to think about. First, while doubtful to have much effect, China raised its interest rates on Saturday by .27 points. Secondly, after days of record breaking growth, the market is due for a correction, however minor it might be. And most importantly, there is talk of a stainless steel producer revolt, of sorts. If you missed our weekend review, you might want to give it a look. There are reports of producers cancelling and delaying nickel orders and stopping stainless steel production altogether. If true, LME nickel inventories should start growing, as they did this morning by a mere 138 tons. Is this evidence of a buyers boycott, or just the normal flow of inventory seen every week? That is the million dollar question, and traders will be watching inventory levels and news closely this week."
Nickel Price Getting Ahead Of Itself?
LME NICKEL STOCKS ROSE 654 TONNES TO 4,302 TONNES
21 March 2007 09:00
"Indications at 7:55 am CST show nickel selling down by $.40/lb . Traders start this week with more than a few concerns to think about. First, while doubtful to have much effect, China raised its interest rates on Saturday by .27 points. Secondly, after days of record breaking growth, the market is due for a correction, however minor it might be. And most importantly, there is talk of a stainless steel producer revolt, of sorts. If you missed our weekend review, you might want to give it a look. There are reports of producers cancelling and delaying nickel orders and stopping stainless steel production altogether. If true, LME nickel inventories should start growing, as they did this morning by a mere 138 tons. Is this evidence of a buyers boycott, or just the normal flow of inventory seen every week? That is the million dollar question, and traders will be watching inventory levels and news closely this week."
Blue Pearl Earnings/CC Next Monday
http://www.kitco.com/pr/1267/article_03202007170108.pdf
Len, The red line and blue line may meet again!
Anyone have that housing chart that shows the markets lag time to downturn in housing? I remember seeing it here??
Thanks,
Kipp
cl001 - There may be enough of Moly to go around. We can share!
This week will tell us a lot about what direction we are headed.
KIPP
dickmilde- mhere is a link to world ,
markets. Note the tabs at the top.
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
Kipp
Wade - Fertilizer/Minig S&P 1325ish
Yara is a great Norway based fertilizer CO. Search my old posts for DD.
Go to Bobwins Junior Miner IHUB board: http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=5834 and see all of the recent picks there. The theory we have developed is to own near term producers, that is miners that have permits and are near the end of construction. Look at LBE.V, ADA.V and ROK.V for prime examples of multi baggers.
I still think we are in for another big leg down to test 1325 on the S&P etc. If that level holds I am back in all of my favorite commodity stocks.
Here is the chart I can't stop watching: It has been 100% predictive for 3 years.
Fed Announcement, Housing Data Due Next Week
Friday, March 16, 2007; Posted: 04:15 PM
(RTTNews) - Next week will see the release of several key economic reports. On Wednesday, the markets will see the release of the Fed monetary policy announcement. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, the data on housing starts will be released, while Friday will see existing home sales.
The key economic report being release next week is the announcement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, at the close of the two day meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee, consisting of the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board and five Federal Reserve Bank presidents, meets eight times a year and will determine the monetary policy for the near future. The markets will be watching the Fed announcement closely and economists are predicting that the Fed will leave rates the same. Going into the meeting, most economic data points to an economic slowdown, which could cause the Fed to cut interest rates. However, higher PPI data released Thursday has raised fears of rising inflation.
Tuesday will see the release of housing starts for February. The report measures the construction of new single family homes. With the recent weakness in the housing sector, investors will be watching this number closely. As they will be watching Friday's release of existing home sales, which gives data on how many already-built homes are sold during the month of February. Friday's data gives more of an indication of economic momentum, which will give investors more idea on the state of the economy since the meltdown of the sub-prime market.
Copyright(c) 2007 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Nickel Heads for Biggest Weekly Gain in More Than Two Years
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen and Brett Foley
March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel headed for its biggest weekly gain in two-and-a-half years in London, as investment funds bought the stainless-steel ingredient on speculation shrinking stockpiles indicate supply is falling short of demand.
Inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange dropped 0.8 percent to 3,564 metric tons, the exchange said today in a daily report. Stockpiles have declined 89 percent in the past 12 months and are equal to less than one day of global consumption.
Funds speculating in nickel are ``the major cause'' of the price surge, Eero Mustala, a spokesman for Outokumpu Oyj, the world's third-largest stainless-steel producer, said today by telephone from Espoo, Finland. About two-thirds of nickel supplies are used to produce the alloy.
Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME rose $650, or 1.4 percent, to $47,750 a ton as of 5:19 p.m. in London. The contract has gained almost 13 percent this week, the largest advance since the week ended Sept. 24, 2004. The metal earlier today reached a record $48,500.
A 43 percent gain in prices this year may encourage some steelmakers to use their existing stocks of the metal rather than buy more supplies, said analysts including Michael Widmer at Calyon in London.
OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, BHP Billiton Ltd. and other mining companies have failed to expand output fast enough to keep up with demand from steelmakers in nations such as China, the world's fastest-growing major economy.
Nickel demand will outpace supply by 13,000 tons this year, Canaccord Adams analysts Orest Wowkodaw and Gary Lampard in Toronto said in a March 13 report.
Economic Expansion
Among other metals on the LME, copper advanced taking this week's gain to 7.9 percent.
China, the world's biggest copper user, produced less of the metal used in pipes and wires in the first two months of this year as smelters faced shortages of raw materials and imports surged, the National Bureau of Statistics said today.
BHP, the world's biggest miner, said in December that copper concentrates will be in deficit in 2007 and 2008 as smelting capacity exceeds mine supply growth. Copper increased $75, or 1.2 percent, to $6,615 a ton.
Copper may rise again next week on speculation that a pick up expanding industrial production in China in coming months will spur demand. Twelve of 22 people surveyed yesterday and March 14 forecast copper will rise next week, nine expected a decline and one was neutral.
Zinc inventories rose 7 percent to 103,525 tons, the largest one-day gain since June 14, 2005. Zinc for delivery in three months dropped $50 to $3,265 a ton.
Tin stockpiles also slumped 2.1 percent to 9,250 tons, the lowest since Nov. 11, 2005. Prices gained $75 to $13,850.
Aluminum gained $22 to $2,812 and lead rose $20 to $1,935.
To contact the reporters on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net ; Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net .
China to raise interest rates
Central bank moves to curb investment and credit growth with third hike in less than a year.
March 17 2007: 9:56 AM EDT
BEIJING (Reuters) -- China's central bank said on Saturday that it was raising interest rates for the third time in less than a year to put a lid on credit and investment and keep the world's fourth-largest economy on an even keel.
The People's Bank of China said that, effective Sunday, its benchmark one-year yuan lending and deposit rates would rise by 0.27 percentage point each. That brings the one-year deposit rate to 2.79 percent and the lending rate to 6.39 percent.
"The rate increase is conducive to the reasonable growth of credit and investment, to stabilising prices, to the stable operation of the financial system, to balancing growth and improving the structure of the economy, and to promoting the healthy but rapid development of the economy," the central bank said in a statement on its Web site (www.pbc.gov.cn).
China blog: Chasing the Dragon
The move follows an increase of lending rates alone on April 27 of last year and a rise in both rates last Aug. 18. The central bank has also raised banks' required reserves five times since last June, to help soak up liquidity generated by the country's large balance-of-payments surplus.
Many economists had expected the central bank to take further tightening measures after a batch of strong economic data for February showed credit surging, factories expanding output rapidly, and exports growing 50 percent from a year earlier.
"In light of the data over the past few days, this isn't the slightest bit of a surprise," said Jim O'Neill, chief global economist at Goldman Sachs.
Premier Wen Jiabao also said on Friday after the end of the annual session of parliament that China needed to do more to address striking economic imbalances including excessive growth in credit and investment.
Banks extended 981.4 billion yuan ($127 billion) of loans in the first two months of 2007, equal to about 30 percent of all yuan credit offered last year.
All about the yuan
But O'Neill stressed that the key to addressing China's liquidity problems was to let the yuan appreciate more quickly.
"We've repeatedly said for several years now that without an even stronger exchange rate, this is not likely to be effective," he said.
The yuan has now appreciated about 4.8 percent against the dollar since Beijing revalued it by 2.1 percent and set it free from a dollar peg to float within managed bands in July 2005. It touched a post-revaluation high on Friday.
But many economists say the only way to close off the tap of liquidity at the source is to let the yuan strengthen even more so as to make Chinese exports more expensive.
That would help ease the swelling trade surplus, which hit a near-record $23.76 billion in February, far more than expected.
The central bank, in an effort to keep the yuan stable, buys most of the dollars generated by the surplus, for which it must in turn print yuan, thus flooding the banking system with cash.
Gao Shanwen, chief economist at Everbright Securities in Shanghai, said he thought the interest rate rise would only exacerbate that problem.
"Higher interest rate rises can help slow down investment and domestic consumption. With domestic consumption weakening, more and more goods would have no market at home and have to be exported abroad, which would make the trade surplus even larger," Gao said.
Check world markets here
Gao said he thought the fundamental solution to China's liquidity woes was to let the yuan become more flexible.
The central bank probably raised rates partly because annual consumer inflation had tipped above the one-year deposit rate, hitting 2.7 percent in February, resulting in negative real interest rates for China's savers, said Zhao Qingming, an analyst at China Construction Bank in Beijing.
Still, Zhao also said he did not think the move would have much of an impact on curbing credit.
"Although in theory higher interest rates can increase deposits and reduce demand for capital, it is not the case in China," Zhao said. "There is great demand for funds in China. And companies will not borrow less because the rates are a little bit higher."
MSGI rogue Wade - Fear & Greed
Thanks for the comments on the S&P70dma chart and for listening to Don Coxe.
First, I have never had so much cash. I have decided it's time for me to move to the sidelines for a while. The market is very murky for me these days. I have had a huge run in my metal stocks since the beginning of the year and decided caution is my best bet.
When I need to make big decisions I make a list of Pros and Cons and see which side of the page out weighs the other. The cons side is winning! The biggest question is what the extent of the bad loans are, do they reach into most of the financial institutions and are they hiding how bad it really is? Are foreighn countries holding a ton of worthless paper and haven't figured it out yet? What is the Fed going to do here, lower rates to save the housing/mortgage folks? Raise rates and defend the dollar and foreign investment in bonds? Either way, whatever the Fed does it is going to have a big impact on some major part of the equation!!
Until I see more evidence of what is going on I am going to sit it out. Too much stress to watch every tick. It is the busy season for our zinc fertilizer products and I am focusing on the ticker JOB for now.
Good Luck Whatever Happens!
Kipp
S&P Going Down to 1325?
Look at how accurate the 70dma has been at picking bottoms in the S&P.
What do you T/A guys think about this:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p19757167927
Kipp
december - Thanks I will check it out.
Don Coxe on Sub Prime
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/#
Good listen here folks!
Kipp
cl001 - You need to call SPROTT up and tell them MOLY is taken, she's MY girl!
I am "Homophobic"!
rogue
I am invested in cash, farmland, gold/silver, and also hanging on to some of my nickel and moly until ????
Here is a website for you to bookmark. You may already have it.
http://www.europac.net/
I read a lot of the articles posted under the "Economic and Market News" section.
The VIX is back in play!
Kipp
Backing the truck up on CMM.V in the low $.50's is paying off!
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/070315/200703150378463001.html?.v=1
Didn't hurt my PSL5 either!
Kipp
Bob, can we refer to them as the "Moly Girls"?
Here comes $3.00 copper - WOW