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No not lately. Use to trade Martha Stewart MSO, FWLT Foster Wheeler and CF cf industries all the time. Like eating meat and potatoes. Played FWLT 2014 a few times, CF got to rich for my blood ( hitting $300) so switch to AGU ( if it hits 80 it will reach 120), in the AG's. BUT Martha I just haven't looked at for a long time.
Thanks looks interesting.
But still in cool mode as usual the beginning of every new year. Finalizing plans and all. This year with the market going bonkers like it has, sideline's isn't a bad place to be now. S&P 50 to 100 points up & down every other week or so.
AMBS
is a OTC STORY stock. It will run when the dark masters need it to. Your goal should be watching for when this happens, if it does. Sometimes it takes months and months. And now days it doesn't last long. So forget what is expected and trade the chart action. It will run and it will dive.
IT"S an OTC stock.
Was just pondering Oil today. IMO it's all speculation, scamming, and setup. "A GAME"
Now the question is are they done? Right now for UWTI 1st resistance is @ 3.70 with a target @ 4.65 gap fill. If they are done playing world titans and oil climbs to where it should be. You then have plenty of gaps above needing fill all the way to 14 bucks. LOL
IMO everyone in the world will be going crazy "playing oil" "the other way" no later then the end of March. And this may be a pivotal moment for pennylanders. They may just move on to the big boards.
All I can say is nothing goes down or up forever. And the oil market has been the sovereign banks & high roller's speculation playground for decades.
Yep; greed never changes it's face. Manipulation will always: F the people, grab the gains.
My opinion, as always; Trade after, not before. Don't call a bottom, till 1st resistance is broken. Basic, simple & clean!!!
Still holding NYMT & ARR. Held CIM for 2 years, 2 years ago.
MHYS boring is boring.
DEWM over is over/
Just my opinion
FNMA has been working 3 months to get back retail confidence. Hasn't broken the top channel resistance yet.
Looking at how well it fills gaps, I'd expect to see $2.00 channel bottom again, before you see another chance to breakout upward past channel top $2.50.
Besides; there has been no volume supporting the recent emotion gaps up, his time.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FNMA&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p67290228040
Happy New Year
S&P finished $9 bucks above my $2050 prediction. LOL
Merry XMASS and happy Next Year
As usual I'm a fickle puppy. LOL Didn't want it all in 2 days. I hate emotion at the market. Watch the gap below now!
We have 2 weeks to get back up to S&P 2050. And I'm a happy puppy. LOL
Sometime things which happen in pricing just amazes me. I love TA & Charting ! It takes into account all things happening within a market and projects price and direction based on history. Meaning previously the underlying market factors which created this pattern, will cause the pattern projection to reappear.
Basic, simple, & clean: The odds are in your favor if you trade TA & Charts. No matter what's happening in todays market.
The S&P chart has been screaming "I need to wash back" for 4 weeks past the top line target, to fulfill the "V" bottom chart pattern throw back leg. It was delayed all the way to Dec, on good economic indicators, where history says a Christmas rally will take place. Thus I thought the pattern would fail and continue higher till end of year.
So here's the reason for this post.
"TA & Charting works more often then not."
Charting called for retrace, Market continued on economic strength. That strength continued during this retrace. All economic indicators were positive during price decline to gap fill and "V" bottom top line.
Makes one wonder what actually is involved in the investing publics minds to buy or sell. Market fundamentals or market chart history.
Why the sudden change in market mindset, when fundamentals continued to be positive. I'm not saying the TA & Charts changed their mindset. I'm saying things repeat. Trust TA & Charting over fundamental reality. History repeats more often then not! Doesn't really matter why. Look at Mich Sentiment; "blew out the numbers today!" S&P fell 1.62%
The market just fell 3%, in 3 days, on continuing strong economic indicators. http://www.finviz.com/calendar.ashx
Quote the Simpson's; Doop; The tail just wagged the dog.
I did have some Q1 concern until this unexpected Dec retrace I was hoping for. The charting going up without a stall or retrace before the Christmas rally was a problem. But now we're getting it late I'm felling better. (As long as the Santa run still happens the last 2 weeks of Dec.) Things look good chart wise for Q!. Use the "V" bottom pattern.
This year I used the summer flag for my prediction. So I guess there was some part of a projection involved to give me the comfort to open my big mount and go out on a long term limb, with that prediction in early Aug.
By the way; look at the "V" bottom pattern now. This mid term pattern will help with what to expect Q1 2015. Finally got the throw back.
ERF
Remember to choose the chart you trade. To evaluate price action movement. 2 or 3 year charts only aid dividend investors for comfort in entry. Check the 6 month for investment. But trade the 3 month.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ERF&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p61771239952
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ERF&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p61771239952
Actually; That double gap at 13.50 to 14 is screaming future price !! I've gap traded that double gap pattern several times and it's always been good to me. Thanks for the heads up.
Just want to repeat, last summer I predicted, Not projected S&P 2050 EOY. Lets see how close I come this year. Last 2 years hit it on the nose. LOL
Happy to see the S&P head toward 1995 gap fill. If it gets there quick, still 2 weeks for Santa rally. Ho Ho Ho
Damn near hit the ascending triangle target of $4.20 in 1 day.
Missed another one. LOL
By the way REDG
Hope all in took profits when they presented on todays red day candle.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=REDG&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p45092337687
O/S outstanding shares, is accounted for in the transfer agents books, owned by the public and traded by retail in market exchanges.
A/S authorized shares, are the company product, held in the company Treasury, owned by the company.
Think of A/S as the companies credit card limit and O/S as it's outstanding account balance. The company board of directors determine the credit limit or A/S size.
The present stock price determines the underlying cash value of the product. The company market capitalization value is the price times the number of shares in the open market. Earnings is the company profit for a given time period.
Increase in O/S increases Market cap, (the value of the pool of stock, the public market can buy & sell liquidity). But lowers profitability. Earnings Per Share is the company profit, divided by the shares outstanding, or a measure of profitability.
Example:
EPS = $1.00, double the shares and EPS halves to $.50 per share.
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Dilution is the decrease in stockholders ownership.
Dilution occurs when the company releases Treasury shares (A/S)into the public open market (O/S). Because the earnings amount remains the same, and the outstanding shares increase, and the shareholder ownership rights declines.
Example:
The O/S is 1,000,000 shares and you own 10,000 shares. You own 1% of the company. They issue 1,000,000 more, now your 10,000 shares of 2,000,000 giving you .05% ownership in the company.
Dilution reduces your company ownership amount and decreases the value of your portion of the lower profitability, at the same time. But unless the company is returning this profit to you thru dividends and reduces that dividend size. All you personally lose is ownership, not profit gain. The company uses that profit gain for operations.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Big board stocks
This is where things get tricky. New issuance of company treasury shares by the company, selling their product, allows the company to raise needed cash for growth or to improve financials. But at the same time reduces shareholder ownership rights and company profitability.
If the company management uses that cash to improve over all profits down the road. Dilution becomes good. If management fails to improve over all profits. Dilution becomes bad.
Short term dilution is bad for traders, as retail may decide to sell out and lower price before management can improve company financial strength. But you don't know if it's bad for investors, usually for a Q or three.
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OTC stocks
This is where things get tricky. Start up companies don't normally have profits (earnings). So they don't decrease profitability, there is none. But because they have no profits for operations and in most cases no or very small income revenues. They can not stay in business without new cash in flows. Selling product (treasury shares) "there for" has to always be good for interested in company success. But; Short term traders have the same risk of retail selling off present price.
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Rap up
Share structure is the balance between company owned shares and public owned shares. Changes in O/S and A/S change ownership amounts in a product. Stock shares. How these changes effect value is determined by how public retail and company management reacts to this change, based on their individual expectations and future outlook and management performance executing the company business plan.
O/S Common Share price only benefits or harms the retail public. A/S treasury share price only benefits or harms the company.
Dilution should be thought of in different ways on different playing fields. Big board dilution can result in better long term profitability. OTC dilution can result in company survival.
EPS is the measure of profitability, Dividends is the amount of profitability the company return to shareholders. The balance in the share structure is determined buy the board of directors. And profitability is determined by management performance.
Value is in the eye of the beholder. There is book value, EBITA value, enterprise value, stock value, earnings value, others that haven't popped into my head, along with several other sub value fundamentals like margins and return ratios.
But basic simple and clean;
Think of A/S as the companies credit card limit and O/S as it's outstanding account balance.
UNAZ chart pattern target is $8.25, as I recall.
I was just looking at you cabin pix at EBAY.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/The-Gwynn-Log-Cabin-Home-Kit-Package/190655127835?_trksid=p2047675.c100005.m1851&_trkparms=aid%3D222007%26algo%3DSIC.MBE%26ao%3D1%26asc%3D27538%26meid%3D633dad03c0584263b590a4dfc7cca513%26pid%3D100005%26prg%3D11353%26rk%3D2%26rkt%3D6%26mehot%3Dpp%26sd%3D261151990104&rt=nc
Sorry I don't recall posting on BOB's or what BOB's is.
SPY is just a less expensive spider of the SPX and I base market direction on the S&P. So yes, I have been evaluating the chart weekly.
Everything tells me a new correction or at least retrace, is in order for the market. Since the "V" bottom 1st target reached at S&P 2010. My real concern is in the fact the S&P normally corrects errors in emotion well. And it hasn't done so in this climb come back.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p78309307474
There is a common gap which should have filled at 2000 and a break away gap down at 1905. The 2000 gap would fill if the "V" bottom pattern had a wash back as expected. But the market just keeps going up.
So you take the fairly reliable "V" bottom pattern not washing back yet. The 2010 gap not filling yet, as areas of concern in the S&P chart evaluation. Add a break away gap @ 1905 which usually corrects in weeks didn't. But stays open like a run away gap, closing in the long term future. And I have no idea what the hell is going on, Technically. Things are way over extended. I should be calling for a strong chance for a market reversal, but just can't justify going out on that limb, for 2 reasons.
First the Christmas rally is due. Second historical statics call for 1 or 2 positive Q's after a mid term election. And the 3rd year of the second term of a president has positive Q1 & Q2 results.
My evaluation ends being; I doubt what TA & charting projection targets of S&P 2000 short term and 1905 mid term (Q1 2015), will occur. Because of the unrelated statics historical norms. But if my 2015 wants of reasonable oil prices and lower dollar don't come to be. All the technical projections will happen at once in a new crash sometime in 2015. Scaring the chit out of me for the second half, some huge global occurrence will happen.
At least the Nov 21st gap filled yesterday. But I didn't want todays come back. I wanted a week or 2 retrace to start the "V" bottom wash back and 2000 gap fill. Then the Christmas rally, back to wash back high, 2075 by end of year. So technically most things are settled.
But I think money managers are so far behind, they will dive for gain they haven't achieved to date. To keep their hedge fund industry from major out flows Q1. Creating a false feeling runs don't need to correct historically. This sentiment in turn, will grow the "what me worry" philosophy of over exuberance. Which has ended in the past, with a crash, rather then a number of smaller corrections.
Student loans are NOW being broken into derivatives. As regulation has not held in check corporate greed. And the new congress is a deregulation body now. The Bush unregulated mortgage crash, took 8 years to build in a normal market. My worry is it will not take that long in a non normal market.
All I want to see is normal, not over exuberance. Because IMO we need another 8 years to survive another swaps market crash in a struggling global market.
WOW you shouldn't have asked! I've had concern many times. Concern is good. But worry sucks. Come on S&P retrace, come on stability in oil, and come on dollar weakness. LOL Boo bubbles!
What do I think about SPY. I think todays come back, after the single one red day gap fill, makes me worry !!!
And my 2015 business plan may need to be higher risk, to attain a years gain, in the first half of the year. Then again maybe the S&P will continue to retrace and fill 2000 and oils bottom will come in and the DXY will come back some by end of year. Then worry switches to concern. And my world is in balance. LOL
Have you seen my video on single bottom plays?
Will mention a TIP I noticed happening like clock work in the 6 mo chart though. Just incase it does turn and run.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VPOR&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21562918762
TIP: Most runs last 3 to 5 days.
So I always watch for a red day "Take Profits" exit signal then.
My thought;
Never try to call a bottom, before first resistance is broken.
REDG
Like the average volume for double zero, Like the volume increase and the price increase time length. It seems free trading, so TA should help. Like the 6 mo descending triangle failure, Like the 6 mo top resistance break.
Like the chart. Price action not lightning with 32 mil average volume watching. Caution area is why? No news is a concern for free trading continuation.
The main thing I hope for is retrace in the dollar index. If the big guy multi nationals can't get their money for free from the government. The next step is cutting jobs in an expensive dollar market to maintain margins. And their the guys which employ & fire tens and hundreds of thousands at 1 meetings decision. There's no, we can let George go, in a 50 employee small business.
Those charts are alike. Underlying reasons may not be. But the more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it. So the more charts you find alike, will aid in decision making for the next one you see alike.
Keep looking. Keep remembering what you've seen.
LOL didn't say I expected, what I wanted. But a perfect world would be nice. Just my mind is getting into planning mode. Happens every year. What I want to see vs. what is real. So far thinking stock pickers 2015, with more channeling ups & downs, then sustained climb we've seen in years past. And a stock pickers market requires a completely different business plan.
Things change. Yes I expected a new price pull down for the next round of conversions. But I'm not the fly on the wall of the darksides office. Seems they feel maintaining a double zero stock price is more beneficial for them now. At any rate we guess at future, but trade the present. That's why we watch, not enter before on expectations.
TALK went on weekly watch after the first fleecing. That watch indicated a stronger watch now. It's how I work. Guess at what could happen and act on what does happen. If it walked down and bounced in the trips. I'd still be waiting for their next move. With so much debit still needing conversion, that was a give, more conversion. So a long watch was in order and will continue to be, as long as they have Free shares wanting to be converted, on court awarded debit.
The company can not refuse to issued where ever or when ever the darkside wants. $24k last time ball parked, still $348k debit for sure. Plenty of price pop action can be expected. Where and when; That's what we watch for.
Put me down for 60 to 70 oil and the DXY to start retracing some.
I want the prosperous Q1 & 2 statistics prediction: for 3rd year, second term presidents and post mid term elections, in a 2015 stock market.
Nothing will aid the US recovery more then reasonable oil prices and weakening dollar (not freakish cheap oil and expensive products) in a global market. We want to maintain our oil market value and lower manufacturing trade costs, to continue growth in employment. As wage increases are going no where.
I want more better paying jobs in manufacturing, to out pace growing employment in retail at home. Energy savings spent, go to retail and cheaper dollar holds completive pricing for our global manufacturing base.
At any rate this is what I've been watching for in planning next years trading business plan. If I see stable inexpensive oil and a weaker dollar. I feel First half of 2015 will have a continuation in market climb, to compensate for FED removing corporate "money for FREE" funding. And give the US economy a chance to not to step back, like the rest of the world.
US growth is the only thing which will keep our stock market from a tip to unsustainable climb mindset and over all retrace, IMO. If our market psychology switches to enough is enough. We'll have a stock pickers market in 2015. And that's a hard market to win at.
Much rather allocate my portfolio between long, mid and short term then strong short term stock picking.
STTK
Another warning about taking profits when they present. If one didn't take profits on the first day of the pop. Please look at the volume since.
And recall the rule of thumb for runs without chart pattern targets.
Profits present on the first red day of a climb.
The volume in this chart, since the first pop day, has shown there is NO big guy support to continue selling into emotion. And if no one feeds the run, continuation stops.
Add 90% of common gaps fill. Thus look out below. Tomorrow may be the last day to bank gain.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=STTK&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p83324056184
If you like 3x ETFs Look at FAS/FAZ for the S&P. 3X Natural gas chart UGAZ shows promise with the gaps now above. But the double top chart pattern calls for an 8.25 bottom target. So the bottom may not be in yet. Plus bottoms, once reached, don't always reverse right away. Many channel till retail sentiment builds causing psychology to switch and investment to begin again.
TIP; these 3x ETFs tend to work best in trending charts, better then channeling. You get larger daily price gains with trend reversal candles. The red day/green day scuffles along the trend.
IMO 3x ETFs are for day trading. And one like UGAZ, with all the emotion gaps, a higher risk trader can expect lightning strike gap gains or losses day trading. Gapers are better swing traded, on chart patterns. So your plan to get in on a nat gas come back, could work well, swing trading, from a lower risk standpoint.
Keep in mind day trading emotion, any day can become Nov 28th Dec 1st. But someone swing trading the double top (short) for chart pattern target below, has better odds for success; then someone day trading a higher risk gap fill higher Nov 26th. Chart patterns aid with decision making. Even on emotional charts. (SEE chart)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UGAZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p81446702454
Day trade 3x ETFs that trend without emotion gaps. Swing trade 3x ETFs that gap a lot, with chart patterns. Lower risk strategy.
Gapers are higher risk trades. If your a high risk trader, then forget my lower risk thoughts about swing trading. And go for the large gap gain/loss available with gapping 3X ETFs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UGAZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p92839543849
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAZ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15249874991
Oh by the way WLT, RAD, NPTN off strong watch. Broke south.