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Thanks for your reply BL.
“they have $200m in market-ready product sitting in a warehouse”
So if Leronlimab can be monetized at $100k that equates to 2000 patients on product for one year. Initially Pro-140 was going to be $24k which would have been enough product for 8000 patients. Do I have my math right?
I am curious as to what it cost the company to manufacture the $200m inventory of Leronlimab. I know manufacturing cost in the future will depend on scale but what did it cost for the product we now have. A nice potential asset that currently has no market value until we gain FDA approval. I understand the valuation in the cancer space, however if this inventory is used to treat HIV Combo can we realistically expect $100k per year?
so who the hell would sell at .50....booooooooooooom
Those looking to make a buck that get in on the Paulson raises with the risk free warrants. It’s as simple as that. They don’t care about the strength of the science or Leronlimab. They are business people that make a living by eliminating risk no matter the temptation to make much more.
The good news is the science will at some point prevail.
As I said Misiu be persistent. This delay of your promised phone conversation is not unusual. It is expected not unexpected. Just keep calling everyday. Squeaky wheel gets the grease.
I have been optimistic for a very long time, it’s my nature in terms of the way I live my life, a choice.
I began trusting and believing in Nader’s words as reality and thinking just add some margin for the FDA and being a small biotech trading in the OTC.
The reality has been the science in my mind has become increasingly compelling and derisked while the bar for raising $ sinks lower along with the SP.
I believe in your perspective however Nader’s words are nothing more than empty promises until he delivers.
Show me the $. Hopefully we are close, inside the ropes, headed for an end game here in 2019.
You summed up my feelings and opinion BL. Not much that can be added. Yes Patience. One of my virtues that has been tested at a level I would never have expected when I purchased my first chunk six years ago. One can get numb with the redundancy of our methodology of raising $. It’s been ground hog day for longer than I can remember. Now I know what Bill Murray must have felt like.
No big deal. You will have your phone conversation. Just be persistent , yet respectful.
Great. Hopefully your persistence and humility can make some headway. It’s like pulling teeth to get a straight answer. Im sure you will be polite yet forceful. Ok that’s it with the pep talk, for which you don’t need.
Yes, let’s hope you can shed some light on his strategy. I feel like we are a bit in Limbo with the uncertainty around $. We look forward to hearing what Nader has to say.
Thank you Misiu. I hope the call happens. I know Nader is a tough one to keep on the phone as he always has an appointment or a phone call he has to take.
If able I would be interested in the questions below:
What is the status and strategy for P3 Pivotal Mono Trial?
Has protocol been submitted, not submitted, are we waiting on the FDA?
Has TNBC now become our lead dog and Mono is being tabled for the time being?
I sure hope not. Just haven’t heard much from the company on what I consider to our most realistic catalyst that can get BP’s attention.
Are our economic priorities as follows:
1-TNBC Data
2-BLA Filing
3-P3 Mono
Do we have enough funding to proceed. I have to think funding has severely hampered our progress relating to #2 and #3.
Of course the big question $$$$. What can we expect?
Best of luck in getting your questions answered. Thank you for representing this band of loyal investors. :)
Give us 50 million in the bank and we would have a deal. BP knows Mono is extremely disruptive to the current HIV SOC - hello Gilead. They also know we don’t have the funds to prove it right now. If I were Gilead I would continue down this road until another BP makes an offer. We have the silver bullet but no gun.
That’s the facts Jack. Well stated A17.
The disconnect is the strength of the science and our inability to raise $ without gifting free shares in the form of warrants. While it is nauseating to watch pieces of our goldmine being given away it is a necessary evil at this juncture. The reality is we are controlled by detrimental financing, traded on the OTC, and waiting for the data to create a tipping point.
My concern is our shoestring budget that is slowing and possibly halting our trials and the BLA process. That translates to more waiting and more time for BP to sit on the fence. The conundrum is how much of the company is Nader willing to give away to gain the necessary $ to create the tipping point and what is the tipping point? Filing BLA, FDA drug approval for Combo, label expansion to include Mono, TNBC results, or it may take all of the above, we have to be prepared to accept that it may take it all.
We all speculate but it is clear we have no idea because it doesn’t appear that Nader knows either other than to continue advancing the trials. This is the ultimate chess game between BP, and Nader and the BOD. We are simply blind folded spectators guessing.
It’s kind of like a catch 22. We need the $ to create the tipping point but BP isn’t going to help us get there until they have no choice. So we are stuck giving pieces away to get there.
The only solution is to advance our trials and BLA as fast as we are able regardless of the amount of diluting. If Leronlimab is worth a fraction of what is being kicked around on this board it will be of minor significance. It’s time to raise a chunk that gets us through the BLA filing and on track with the Pivotal P3 Mono Trial, and the next step after the P2 TNBC Trial. Hopefully TNBC Q1 results will turn the table but we can’t count on it. We have to turn up the heat on BP at all costs. According to Nader we expect $500 M in revenue in 2020 so let’s get going.
Financing, Partnership, or Licensing deal. Or better yet all of the above.
Financial backing will validate this investment. The market is saying once deep pockets jump in we will believe. The science sounds incredible but if it’s that incredible show me the $. Nader has been promising this but it has not materialized. The longer we go without his promise materializing, the more skeptical the market becomes. Is Leronlimab a pipe dream, or is it real, or somewhere in between? That is what the market is asking and it wants proof in the form of $. Just need one taker to get the ball rolling. So we play the waiting game, something we Longs have become quite accustomed to.
No ?? Intended. Happy Sunday Mr. Chump.
Disagreement is healthy. Respect...at the end of the day, that’s what counts. Best to you Chump??
I agree. It’s not that I don’t respect what Nader has accomplished. As a CEO one has to recognize ones strength. Since this is a one horse show Nader is trying to do it all, but cutting a deal with BP is not his expertise. We have the science but desperately need someone that understands the landscape to cut a deal. My hope is that Nader will bring it home by surfacing a partner with the BLA filing.
Great Post Trding. You nailed it.
The word “soon” is like hopefully, maybe in the next day or year or maybe three years or maybe a little longer.
Nader says raising $ is not a problem. Well I’ve got a news alert, ah, yeah it is. Nader’s tenure as CEO is dependent on securing positive warrantless financing upon BLA filing. The future of our investment is now not dependent on the science but rather an influx of $ that validates Leronlimab and sets the SP free to reflect its real value. Nader’s Giving it all he has however it is becoming quite clear he lacks the pedigree and skillset to attract and negotiate a legitimate financing deal.
Your much more technical than I am. If I buy I will follow your lead. Thanks for all your insight that you contribute on this board.
I may join you in the bottom fishing. The boat is loaded however it’s difficult to resist another chunk at .50. I am hopeful 2019 is the end game or at least strong appreciation in the SP. After six years I’m a bit jaded but can’t see how this science will be denied.
Well said Trding. I pray it’s the last round of raising at these terms. I’ve watched this cycle for so long that it always seems to be the last time and here we are again. And yes this 1-3 month window may be the last chance to purchase cheap shares. I may be tempted to load another 50k shares in the next month as it could easily be a 10-20x this year. As much as it would seem that the BLA will be the tipping point neither Nader or BP offer any guarantees.
Good points. I just don’t know as it’s all speculation. I do believe our voices concerning financing are being heard loud and clear as they are representative of ALL shareholders. Everybody is pissed about our inability to get real financing that is as you say invested in the science.
We’ve got a golden goose in our possession that has yet to produce the golden egg(s). It’s a bitch waiting for the first one as many will follow. Nader has over promised the delivery of the first egg so many times he has no credibility. So much belief in the science and so little in Nader. He’s definitely on the hot seat and I would guess not sleeping well.
My guess is Nader once again thought they would have alternative financing secured in January to take care of the BLA. That did not materialize so baby bites to fund operations was no longer an option.
Apparently best bottom feeding play to fund BLA, and that subscription is yet to be filled. Text book example of the inside fundamentals of BP playing the risk reward game. It seems impossible that Leronlimab can be power washed down the sewer by BP, however what is taking place is quite frustrating to say the least.
Great science that is yet to be validated by a partner with the bank to take us to the promised land.
Your question:
“What happened to the confidence that they could license the diagnostic test? Obviously, if they're looking to raise $25mm on objectively terrible terms, they don't expect significant funding from that in even the coming months. But since about November, they've spoken like that's imminent. That's exceptionally frustrating to me. It blows my mind that they can't find bridge funding if the diagnostic test is as valuable and easily-licensed as they've suggested.”
I spoke to Tony C a month ago about this as it appeared this could resolve the cash needed for the BLA and additional breathing room. I don’t quote my sources.
In my words let’s say it is not as simple and valuable as it may appear. Requires time and significant investment from the suitor. The bet is on Mono as the inflection point with 90% plus efficacy at 700mg dosage. Cancer play is big but much further out. All the more logic behind raising $ regardless of terms right now to get Combo BLA Filed as Mono is the key.
Pestell’s Cancer story is attracting the investment $. HIV story was out of gas going back to the same investors.
Pestell and the TNBC is the trophy magnet but let’s face it Mono can be a revenue generator with Combo approval as a label expansion almost immediately. That is the pressure the BP HIV players are going to need to feel for a deal to occur. Cancer play has added euphoria type numbers to Leronlimab. It may be real but we are a ways out for that to materialize.
I for one would jump at $10 per share this year. I’m not getting any younger and there are possibly millions of patients that need the benefits of Leronlimab. Let’s hand it off to deep pockets and expedite the process.
As for the private raise I believe it’s min. 250k.
AIMHO.
IMO this is where we are.
Neither Nader or the board would be endorsing the current raise at the .50 pricing if they were confident the TNBC results would move the needle and create a much improved climate for raising $. They are thinking the company would be making a mistake by not completing the BLA filing with the FDA. In the big picture they can’t afford to gamble and burn another three months. The board must be in agreement that the BLA is the safer bet and is also needed for label expansion to include Mono. While TNBC is the major play it may be further away from creating a tipping point then we think. Although the private raise is a let down and keeps a short term lid on the SP it is the best bet to create more favorable financing in the shortest period of time.
We all know that the SP is held hostage and the get out of jail card is lucrative financing that does not include warrants.
The CYDY Board has spoken. The BLA is the play.
I’m not surprised Nader called you back. Also makes sense he would pitch the private raise and send you the subscription agreement.
Nader’s professionalism on the way shareholders find out about these private raises is par for the course. Great science with a used car salesman at the helm. Thank our lucky stars for Pestell.
Agreed, Unless one is liquidating their position it makes little sense to exercise warrants. I won’t until the company is sold. The only exception is if the SP is in the money and warrants are going to expire then it’s decision time.
Now that’s probably right on point. I for one am tired of dreaming.
One has to ask themselves how many barriers to entry are left to clear for the tipping point to occur. After so many delays and disappointments I have at times questioned my judgement, however the preponderance of evidence tells me this is game on from this day forward. All us long time Longs are but a step away from sipping the elusive Champagne or whatever your preference may be. For those that were fortunate enough to jump in of late, congrats, I’m happy for all of you. Only question is how much $ Leronlimab fetches. No bag holding on this one.
Key words”Nader Expects”. I’ve been here for six plus years, had numerous conversations with Nader. Always over selling. Not once has he made good on his expectations. Doesn’t mean he won’t at some point. I’m very bullish but hanging my hat on what he expects is not rational or logical.
Misiu,
When we are further down the road with TNBC clinical validation then I can see valuation steadily increasing. The jump from our current market valuation to $100 SP is fantasy land. Nader has placed the cart in front of the horses to say the least. Potential is unlimited for Leronlimab however I prefer realistic perspective on expectations for 2019. I would run to the bank if BP offered $4 Billion at any point this year.
Nader has not been able to break free from Paulson much less convince BP of the extreme valuation he is bantering about.
Your medical perspective and insights are much appreciated and respected.
With Nader’s revenue projections and expectations the chances of a buy out are probably about zero. IMO BP views Nader as a used car salesman.
I am much more interested in hearing Pestell’s voice of reason and I’m sure BP feels the same way.
Great post Pro.
That sums up where we are, risks included. Funding is the only barrier that is keeping us from a 10x-30x return in 2019. My immediate concern is the same as Terry Chrisomalis.
“The final risk involves whether or not the entire BLA package can be submitted on time in Q1 of 2019. The company is low on cash, and it may need to seek a partner to get things funded.”
Yes something is amiss. When all is added up it does not equate. You may be correct in that the gap in value is quite large between Nader and BP. I also believe Gilead specifically has a hard time swallowing or believing Leronlimab is a Mono solution. First of all they don’t want a Mono solution they want to stay with their Combo cocktail. I think it is more about the bigger the market and potential disruption the stronger the resistance. Gilead really wants to squash Leronlimab like a bug so hence the road we are on having to further prove and validate the science. Either we are not assessing the value and strength of Leronlimab clearly or it’s the landscape of a blockbuster drug in development. I’m thinking it’s the later.
No question lack of buyers is the other factor depressing SP. Financing/partnership/licensing deal is needed to break the cycle.
So what event will produce such a deal?
I strongly believe the tipping point we are looking for is somewhere in the interim results of the Mono Trial. It will be easy to enroll patients unlike the Combo Trial, and Mono with no SAE’s and 90% plus efficacy can’t be ignored. BP is content to wait and watch and hope we are unsuccessful. Meanwhile we are waiting for protocol approval from the FDA to begin this last leg strapped financially. This trial can’t happen fast enough as it will determine Leronlimab’s value in the HIV market.
We desperately need a $50-$100 million deal so we can expedite the BLA, Pivotal P3 Mono and TNBC trials. We are crawling due to lack of funds. There is no urgency to buy because we are STILL in the wait and see phase.
$ is the only factor creating a barrier. It’s such a catch 22 and BP knows exactly what our predicament is. So close but yet so far.
Paulson raises have 100% control of the SP with Nite and the OTC manipulators. Is it ridiculous that the SP drops on good news? Yes. Is it logical? That’s also a yes. There are so many cheap shares available to sell it is where we will languish until we have a major financing, partnership, and/or licensing deal.
The science is compelling and logically seems to be at a tipping point. It would seem impossible for Leronlimab to be squeezed and suffocated due to lack financial resources. .48 SP is a reflection of the reality of that circumstance we find ourselves in.
IMHO Financing is the only news that is going to break the cycle. Paulson raises are nothing more than life support.
“Money/pivotal will change everything and the rest of the world will finally see what is going on with cydy”
Until these two events come to fruition we will languish with the SP right where it is. IMO it will be Pivotal protocol approved by FDA and three months of patient enrollment confirming 90% plus efficacy that attracts the money. My time clock says late Q2 is tipping point even at the snails pace we are subject to with lack of funds.
It would seem impossible for BP not to move at that point because of the certainty of the HIV SOC being seriously disrupted. The BP HIV players can’t ignore Leronlimab forever.
Pestell and his Cancer play is icing on the cake.
Tony C is still there overseeing BLA. Also our go to guy to get a buy out negotiated regarding HIV Mono.
Way off base on keeping the SP down. I’ve had numerous conversations with Tony and that just isn’t true.