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SPY Shorting VS. Buying SPXU
How does shorting SPY compare to Buying SPXU for downside?...These ETF's are new territory for me and I wonder about the ramifications of both and the risk associated!....I still have my Guesstimate of SPY 205 before year-end as probable; But considering if Downside protection is required at some point and best way to implement rather than selling various positions....Any of you "Traders" have thoughts on this???
* SPY 205 *
Been doing my own style of research and analysis and guesstimating and believe my original guesstimate of SPY 205 before year-end is looking even better to me now....I posted regarding SPY 205 when the Market was much lower and some thought I was out in left field!....With the recent move; I think it increases the possibility of SPY 205 before year-end!!!
Only Time Will Tell.....LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS
PS: This is just fun for me as I am a Longterm Investor and these ETF's and Options are all new territory for me....I have pretty good luck with my Guesstimates sometimes!
So They would have cost .60 now 1.06
ALL things staying the same...IF today SPY closed 198...how much more would they be worth? 1.06 plus 1 dollar for 2.06 or is it different ....just trying to find out if it is 1 dollar for every point in-the-money or something else?
USDollar....THANKS AGAIN
OK...I hear ya about the get the knowledge so you know what your doing....and it totally makes sense...I was just very curious about the SPY 197 option going in-the-money and what it would amount to if I had done that trade!....I get the rest of it totally and first wanted to find out "If" SPY traded to 198 what the 197 call would be worth?....Then I could determine if it was worthwhile putting in the time and effort to learn more!
jeffdecker....THANKS AGAIN
....I understand that aspect of trading....I have been involved in the markets for over 30 years, but mostly from a traditional approach with leanings towards Time-Growth-Dividends....This option area has me curious, but not sure if enough upside vs. the risk warrants me to spend too much time with it....Do you happen to know the "simple" math as it relates to "this" call potentially going into-the-money....I realize it is complex, but is it roughly 1 dollar up on call for every point above 197 or something completely different!
USDollar THANKS.....
.....I appreciate your reply and information....Over the years I have read and researched a fair bit regarding options; But never got to the point of trading them because of the wasting asset element and my concern that so many seem to lose trading options....so I have shyed away even though they intriuge me....as for Futures; I have also read/researched a fair bit over the years on them aswell and totally don't like the elevated risk even though the reward can be huge!....Right now with all these ETF's out there, it has me re-thinking IF options are a good path to go down?....I still have not decided if it is worth learning more about them....as the example I have wondered about is the SPY 197 call expiring Oct/31st....jeffdecker was kind enough to give me a bit of info and I was not excited enough about that outcome...however, I am still waiting to find out IF the calls went into-the-money....how much difference/if any it would make....Thanks again for your reply, Much Appreciated!
jeffdecker....THANKS!....
......Do you know if they go in-the-money how much it effects the price?...Does that make much of a difference or is appreciation consistent and diminishing asset?....For instane IF on Monday SPY goes to say 198 as example...Do these calls become effected largely or not?....Thanks for your reply...It helps me formulate whether or not options is something I should be considering!
WISH I KNEW WHAT THEY COST
This post is in response to my own post on Oct/22 just after 10 in the morning (see my post)....I was curious how much SPY 197 Calls expiring Oct/31 would cost....I wish I knew what they would have cost and what they were worth now and would be worth if SPY goes above 197 next week....I have been involved in the markets for years, but never got involved with options....I have been considering it but unsure because I have been told that most lose trading options....I have generally been pretty accurate at Guesstimating for major markets and wondered if it would be worthwhile to get involved with options or not....Does anybody here have knowledge of options and thier realistic returns....also does anybody know what those calls would have cost and be worth and if go in-the-money?....Many of you here are probably much more knowledgeable than I about "Trading" and "Options" as I am more of a longer-term Investor....Any and all replies would be appreciated!
WHO's WATCHING SPY BREAK 50 MA?
Are The Bulls In Charge Now?
* SPY * BULLS!
NOW WHAT!.....LETS SEE!!!
* SPY gonna Break 50 MA this time? *
Here goes something to SEE!....What happens next!!!
IS THE BOTTOM IN FOR ABX @ $13's????
I believe we have possibly seen the Bottom for ABX...If it is not; It looks like a decent entry point to me!....I like the Company, the Dividend, and the Beat Down Price!!!
NYBob....YES thanks for posting LINK!
My thoughts as it relates to the article are that it is an indicator of potential based on something as significant as the Golden Ratio....Whether it gets to that number or not only time will tell; But I do like the Bullish outlook for Gold....and then we get to Silver which I think has a fascinating inter-related story...The current Silver to Gold Ratio is over 70:1 and I see this ratio eventually deviating towards the downside and closer to its historical ratio....That being the case; I am Bullish on Gold and see Silver appreciating at a higher percentage increase as things unfold!!!
NYBob....Gold $3880 Golden Ratio
Thanks NYBob...I saw that information and it is worth considering strongly!...I am bullish on Gold/Silver over the next few years and I have collection of Miners and my tops are:....
.....Goldcorp, aswell as Barrick,and Centerra for the GOLDS
....and Silver Wheaton, Silvercorp, and Alexco for the SILVERS
....I have more; But these 6 are taking up most of my thoughts!!!
I THINK I WILL LEAVE YOU FOLKS
I have shared my view and GUESSTIMATES enough and now it is just repitition!....I wish you all well with your Trading....BOTH...Bulls and Bears....and will just WATCH for now!
jeffdecker....You could be right!...The volume is not very convincing; However I imagine it could get moving fast IF that 50 MA were to get broken over!...I am more of a longer-term player and mostly just watching and guessing!!!
I find this fascinating and love to GUESSTIMATE!
My general view is Bullish....I like Gold/Silver Long-term....I like Facebook short-term....and mostly Dividend Stocks!!!
All The Best
porsche2006.... * SPY 205 *
As I have posted here my GUESSTIMATE is for SPY to hit 205 before year-end!....As for the shorter-term; It looks fuzzy to me...Here we have another very strong upward move, leaving those recent gaps unfilled, and many still leaning towards a Market "crash"....My thinking (for what its worth) is that many "Traders" had braced themselves phsycologically and positionally for a big market turndown...Now that we are seeing this strong upward momentum; many may be questioning if they were too early in thier predictions and trying to decide what to do....cover/go long/stay short and this is creating a Battle!....My GUESSTIMATE is that the BULLS may be winning and IF today SPY breaks 50 MA; It could be HUGE!!!
Well that my 2 cents!...I am just a GUESSTIMATOR and have nothing but my gut and my past experiences to guide me!!!
* SPY * 50 MA..... BULLS vs. BEARS
This is a Battle that could be Big...The BEARS would like to see that 50 MA Hold and the BULLS would like to see that 50 MA Breakthrough!....Wonder what will happen...IF (and that is a big IF).... It was a breakthrough Today it would be an impressive signal that The BULLS are in charge....It is going to be a Battle!!!
80 * FB * FACEBOOK on RADARS!!!
FB is looking Strong with NO OVERHEAD RESISTANCE!....Will be interesting to see how much it can run!!!
* SPY * LOOKING BULLISH
I don't like the Gaps that are currenty unfilled; But I do like the BULLISH LOOK...Can SPY Breakthrough the 50MDA?...My Guesstimate remains the same of SPY 205 before end of year....Lets See where it goes!!!
L-Back..... * ALEXCO RESOURCES *
AXU is a tricky play...I believe it has a great FUTURE because of thier abundance of High Grade Silver combined with thier Environmental Business: However The stock is under tremendous downward pressure and no telling when it will stop...My thinking is to WATCH it for a CONFIRMED BREAKOUT off the Bottom which would require.... Volume...Price Rise above Moving average...and reasonable Upward price in Gold and/or Silver!....which is not haapening as I post!
The other thought is to accumulate at these lower prices with the idea that these prices are good and the future price will be much higher; However this is potentialy longer term hold than the previous stategy....One day I do believe we will see a much higher price for AXU; It is just WHEN!!!
USDollar...That was my Simple Answer
My Guesstimates are just that!....Your post offers a lot of good stuff!
My Guesstinate was and is SPY 205 before 2015....and only time will tell if it happens or not!!!
Hmmmm * SPY 105 or 205 *
You like 105; I like 205....Only Time will tell which GUESSTIMATE comes!!!
Seems Due To Pullback
LETS SEE what happens in coming weeks!
PAST DATA and FUTURE GUESSTIMATES
NOBODY Knows What Will Happen Exactly In The Market!....Therefore all the Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis are indicators at Best....In the end it comes down to GUESSTIMATE!!!
Still Think * SPY 205 * before 2015
This run has been pretty impressive and a potential pullback exists because of the possible "too far - too fast"; However I still think the BULLS are taking over and SPY 205 before end of year is probable!!!
* FB * NEW 52 WEEK HIGH
Looks good to run!!!
TR4GEDY...No problem!....Somebody here must know and trade options I would think....My Outlook is obviously BULLISH and I think/hope the BULLS are taking back over!!!
LOL... * SPY 197 CALLS *
How much would it cost for 197 SPY calls expiring Halloween?....Also wonder about FB 85 calls with same expiry?....I am not an options player; But just wondering how much these 2 would cost...Anybody!!!
Excellent ClayTrader! * SLV * SILVER
Your Video analysis is very helpful for those incorporating/useing Technical Analysis and I agree with your presentation; Myself leaning to a Pro-Active Posture however that the BULLS are Taking over control!
Secondly....Can you do a Video for SLV....The recent "V" in Gold and lack thereof for SLV has me wondering if/when SLV may come alive and make up some ground....The Ratio's indicate potential rise in Silver price based on potential deviation to the mean....But I would be interested to know what your Technical view is and Key target prices to watch for SLV!!!
LOL...No Guru...Just Guesstimator!
Good Luck with your Trading!!!
highhertel....My guestimate was for before 2014!...If you read my messages; you can see it was meant and discussed as end of 2013 before beginning of 2014....Its only a Guesstimate I have for SPY!!~
I like GOLD/SILVER SPY-HIGH FACEBOOK ALEXCO....For Big Moves upward before 2014!!!
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES * SPY * HITS 205 in 2013?
I posted this Guestimate last week and I believe some thought I was off by a longshot!....Now you see this "V" and wonder after it juggles around a bit here and there if SPY 205 in 2013 is Realistic!!!
uranium-pinto-beans * FB * calls anybody?
Just wondering if you options guys are watching FACEBOOK for a break to New 52 Week High and pricing calls?....The CRASH Stories are Losing ground to The FLIGHT Stories!!!
FB calls anybody?
Facebook is looking like it want to go to new highs!...How do the call prices look?
* SPY * Up and Running!
This seems to be a pivotal spot!....SPY has moved up to about a 50% retracement on past down move....Where to from here?
I see SPY hitting 205 before 2014 yearend as I have allredy posted and GOLD going much higher aswell....Got the AAPL call pretty good...Now just waiting for a little one (AXU) I am following to break....LETS SEE!!!
$AXU Potential Breakout Building
Volume Increasing....Price Rising....Needs a bit more to go for Breakout Confirmation!
Alexco Resources is a Silver with Future written all over it!!!
MOMO....Watching * AXU * for MOMO BREAKOUT
* AXU * Alexco seems to be building slowly towards a Breakout!...This Silver Story has much going for it and the Chart looks interesting for a Bottoms Up Breakout...Volume starting up...Price starting up....LETS SEE if this coiled spring releases!
Thanka AugustaFreinds! * AXU * Watching for .62
I know it has been a teaser; But i think this one has a lot of ground to make up!...The Story remains the same and has FUTUREwritten all over it...The price has been beaten down so much that it seems like a coiled spring that could release anytime...As you say...Need to see AXU break .62 to confirm!!!
* AXU * Volume and Price rising!
The .62 Trigger is getting close...If this Breaks out it could be the perfect storm...Gold up...Silver up...Market up...and a GAP to run to in AXU....LETS SEE!!!