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Go ahead and wait until .16, by then you'll know its moving strong in the upwards direction. As they say, buy on the up, sell on the down.
Are you really asking strangers to make decisions for you? That's not a good idea: do your DD, read up on the company, read the quarterly reports, read forum posts, and make up your own mind.
Who's short? Not me. I'm down from my .10 buyin. I wish I stayed liquid at my .106 sell on Friday to buy back, but I saw Wed/Fri/Mon support at .10 so I got back in at .10.
I don't have the ability to short sell, only to sell and buy back lower, but I can only do that once every three days because I have a cash account and the transaction needs to clear before I can try again.
I'm not sure what the exact numbers are right now... I need to go read the full Q3.. Haven't had time this week.
If it truly was just authorized shares, they have not been issued. If they are issued, then they become outstanding.
This makes the theory that they were authorized as an insurance for the 15M LoC more plausible.
If this is the case, ten defaulting on that credit line would trigger the release and we'd have huge problems - not just more shares outstanding, but the huge negative reaction to defaulting on a debt.
I am not suggesting this will happen.
It was just 'authorized shares', not shares outstanding.
I emailed MJNA about this (using generic email address on the website) and last night Ted Caligiuri actually replied himself. My email was about due diligence and shares outstanding/dilution and equitable ownership.
Below is his response: I edited the phone # and email addx. You can find the contact email on their website, its what I originally used.
Addressed to my first name,
In response to you inquiry below regarding the 950M shares. These are authorized shares, not issued. So there is no dilution. We agree, OTC:PINK is a challenging market to be in.
The Q3 report should be listed on OTC with a few days. We do our best to operate with integrity and believe we have a great future. Thank You for your support.
Best Regards,
Ted Caligiuri
President/CEO
Medical Marijuana, Inc.
760.53x.xxxx
tedcaligiuri@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx.com
Yes.. Typo included: 'you inquiry'
I'm happy to hear this, today is just market forces in response to a weak PR that won't help stimulate excitement. If you need money before February, you're in trouble. There's nothing on the horizon unless they announce some more mergers/acquisitions or distribution deals or something.
I noticed something: it doesn't say 'interim' President/CEO.
No- a/o 950M.. Again, you prove to be reporting ancient data. Just stop, you're not helping.
You forget this months filing? 950M shares?
I certainly hope so... But it's casting a dark shadow.
The fact that he's only 27 bothers me too.. I certainly hope he has a seasoned CEO as a mentor. Young and arrogant is dangerous.
Apple's Jobs, Google's Page, Facebook's Zuckerberg and Square's Dorsey all had/have very experienced mentors.
What date did he step down and what date was he indicted?
Technically Llamas is only on a leave of absence and Caligiuri is interim-president.
So he's not out yet... Given that its his company, his board won't boot him unless he's found guilty.
I live in Texas and have heard nothing about it.
My wife has an inflammatory disease and I would love for her to try CBD, but its at risk for failing basic drug tests, and the risk is too great with her industry (childcare).. Her career would be over.
Trust me, if it was on the tongues of state congressmen/senators, it would be on the news and I would be paying hyper attention to every detail.
A basic google search of 'texas medical marijuana' turns up only pro-MMJ websites on the front page: no major news outlets are covering anything but patients getting arrested.
Wow, rather jaded?
Dated? There seems to be little mathematical support for any assertions most users post here.
Finance is all math... The stock market is all about finance.
It's all pump and circumstantial evidence around here.
Forgive me for running the numbers... You know, using logic instead of the average daily arguments over THC vs CBD and what some podunk, backwoods newspaper or online blog wrote about. That's all fine and dandy, but its all circumstantial and anecdotal.
The only other mathematical discussions are based on charts: historical data points. As if the past can predict the future.
Maybe in the stinky pinkies where Mm's and other technical players force the market into self-fulfilling prophecies. Technical analysis at this level is acceptable, because it seems to work, but where is the Bullish indicators today after the triple bottom price bounces off the 50MA? Is today just a quadruple bounce? What does the technical fortune telling systems suggest now?
Basing future predictions on historical patterns is anecdotal evidence at best. It's the best the daily players can come up with but it doesn't take into account finance or economics... In fact it's blind to that. A price jump way above 50MA is driven by news, but if that news is pure PR hype and unsubstantial, te technicals don't tell you it's going to crash back down.
So for future predictions, you have to clear out the noise and look at economic and financial fundamentals to draw the lines. It's not all rosey, which is where skepticism and probabilities of risk come into equation, and that's fundamental finance. Statistics and other math models.
For the sake of conversation I use simple models, oh no, I'm dated, I'm having fun educating people... But many of these people just don't seem to have the grasp of these fundamentals that I do and I'm willing to share...
$1 is beyond my expectations... That's a huge multiple.
The real question is when? I agree its bunched up ready to take a long walk.
I still have some skepticism about when and how far that walk will be, but I agree on a basic level...
Of course, I have micro-economic concerns that might keep me from realizing those long term expectations. I don't have a large stake and have expenses on the horizon: hopefully we'll see great growth and ill be able to keep a smaller position when those costs are realized.
I'd like to open a discussion: fiscal cliff.
Are companies like MJNA 'sin' stocks which often counter normal market forces, or are they medical stocks which usually succumb to the greater economic concerns?
Are we feeling the pinch of the fiscal cliff?
Or are we just a stinky pinky (for now), only subject to the whims of Market Makers?
Go!
You only just came back, I've been doing this for about 3 weeks now.
The last few days have been anomalous.
I am long, I am pro MJNA, but I do have my minor doubts and I don't like rampant speculation.
Scrutiny: Nice word.. It sums it all up.
I blame the legitimacy of the company for that :). It's odd how a real company gets more scrutiny. I believe it's because intelligent investors will pay close attention to the fundamentals because that's how this company is operating: like a real business (unlike alot of stinky pinkies).
As well the large float and high shares outstanding that based on q3 revenues has a fundamental based price support around .12.
The large float also makes room for shorts and MM manipulation.
The low PPS makes a whole lot of room for pumpers to come in and do their thing, pull out profits and deflate momentum and moving averages.
Also consider regulatory risk: if its getting fundamental type of scrutiny, this too will take hold: the dixie subsidiary actually sells THC infused products, and that means fed crackdown risk has to be calculated in.
Okay, new data to consider: thank you. Is that any institution or only certain levels? I'm pretty sure registered hedge funds play in the OTC, just not sure if they have a bottom.
Getting out of the stinky pinkies will help draw many new investors which will increase demand and some hype, and any buy backs will raise the price too.
All my calculations are based on fixed # of S/O, they all need to be recalculated if that changes.
All day has been offering a good entry price: for 3 business days in a row we had strong support at .10 and right now we are bouncing off of the 50 day moving average (50ma).
I have said time and again, I expect sideways movement for 2 months at least, but there will MM moves and pumpers who get involved and wreak a little havoc on PPS (in both directions), and even a 50% up to .15 is nothing for me to get excited about, I don't expect significant news until audit/uplist or Q4.
New products does not mean huge growth and if every executive's announced expectations of market growth were to be true, no company would ever go out of business, so i dont pay attention to most pomp and circumstance...
Anything significant between now and then will be small plateaus I price bumps, and any statements from the fed will have a fireworks or timberrrrr impact.
I'm not sure who you're addressing: ill break down my support for .50.
Not everybody has to read this: it's very mathematical and uses logic and fundamentals.
In February? That would have hype priced in. There has been alot of news and definite increased brand awareness for MJNA products, so revenues will grow, but how much? What will earnings be? Given 1.19M last quarter, its not unrealistic to expect 2M in earnings.
If earnings were 2M, assume even sales over the year to annualize, and you'd have 8M in earnings. If that latest 950M s/o bump was only for financing and we're still at 600M s/o, that would be a huge market cap of 300M, giving it a P/E of 37.5:1, which is not crazy, but has lots of hype/enthusiasm.
Assuming 950M S/O that makes mkt cap 450M and a P/E of 56.25:1, which is a little crazy, but within the realm of possibilities.
.50 in one year with just stable fundamentals of a P/E around 12-16, zero hype (which is a conservative estimate), we're looming at the same mkt caps, but with a lower P/E expectation, we're looking for earnings:
For 600 s/o, a quarterly earnings of (16 p/e)4.69M to (12 p/e) of 6.25M... Again, not unreasonable.
If we're looking at 950M shares outstanding, that range changes to 7M to 9.38M. This requires amazing growth, but could happen.
These earnings expectations go down with higher P/E levels of enthusiasm/hype.
If MJNA starts showing these levels of earnings, the hype will follow and PPS will grow.. .50 is within reach, just really depends on news and Q4.
Caveat: this all assumes audit/uplist and exposure to more sophisticated investors in the form of institutions.
For the higher levels of hype/enthusiasm mentioned (and even higher, we need some official announcements from the fed/DEA/AG Holder or Obama, OR from the FDA regarding relaxation of testing rules around schedule 1 drugs or CBD/THC specifically.
I was just replying to her directed comment. I don't think it's entirely off topic: business and emotions don't mix, and the emotional aspect was in relation to the medical benefits of MJNA's offerings.
Back to task: most will think I'm bearish, but I believe we could see .30s or higher based on pure enthusiasm after audit/uplist and q4, all potentially coming to a head in February.
I agree .50 in February has alot of hype built in and that in one year a finance fundamental supported price of .50 is within the realm of possibility.
I can't quote on my iPhone app, but I agree: the temptation to sell in the short term is strong, but you must have a solid expectation of the bottom or you will be chasing.
I sold Friday at .106 and bought back yesterday at .10, and I find myself day dreaming about 'what if I stayed out one more day'.. But that's not logical, that chasing behavior leads to irrational decisions in the long run. I made a solid decision to buy back in with very solid support. hindsight drives emotions and those and can be detrimental unless you get lucky.
And who, pray tell, is this "biggest political lobbyist powerhouse"?
Oil & Gas? Wall Street/Banking? Religious Right?
I've had alot of people want to argue because they believe THC, CBD and MJNA are the holy trinity and any negative comment offends them greatly, and even an offhand reference to complete collapse is taken completely out of context.
Alternate?!? Wow. An expected return calculation of MJNA is an alternate subject?!
I mostly agree with you, but the downside is only .103 right now.. I don't think $1 anytime soon, but the upside of .50 with audit/uplist and strong Q4 isn't unrealistic.
That's an expected return of (.5 * -.103) + (.5 * .5) :: .052 + .25 = .1998 to .20.
That's assuming a completely collapse has a 50% probability, which is only an assumption for the sake of calculation, I think collapse is very much less likely, maybe. 5% risk or less, which would drive up that expected return for a 2-3 month period.
For anybody who wants to argue with this: learn about Expected Returns, its very basic decision making criteria based on statistics and probabilities of occurrence. I would be open to discussing the probability of complete collapse, but that is not my argument: my argument is that the upside is much stronger than the downside.
I agree with this: there is an opportunity to expand in CO, but European production is strong and they should not upset operations until US Fed regulatory risk clears up more.
Good point.. The other guy used his name and I repeated it absent mindedly.
Yeah, it was a limited statement: however, the extreme float has allowed the price to be regularly manipulated instead of steady growth on par with the company. The float keeps P/E down as well. Other considerations apply too, but for the size of this company the # of S/O is out of proportion and keeps the PPS in the pennies allowing anybody to wreak havoc.
I just saw the end of your post and realized you already knew better... Lol. Sorry.
Lol. Slow on the uptick. You're the 5th person to note this and I already admitted to just being facetious in light of Reasonable's self aggrandizement.
With what stimulus? The market drives sideways without stimulus. We may see .16 based on pumpers like we did 3 weeks ago... But real sustainable growth will occur with audit/uplist combined with Q4.
We'll see a nice table top with that, and once proper investors buy-in (we're all speculators by comparison), we'll see another plateau.
The price will go up, but I'm not expecting riches anytime in the near term. Could see a nice and hyped P/E after the larger institutions buy in (after audit/uplist, no sooner).
I'd love to see a LinkedIn P/E, but there are just too many shares outstanding for this size of a company. The stock structure is preventing market cap growth.
I agree.. I'm just having fun stating an obvious number... All rules aside :). Nice call on your numbers/tech analysis. I was just being a smart a__.
This is fun.
Ooh. Most of you analysis is great. Maybe I'm just being facetious, but my brokerage shows .0992 as the current price.
Okay, it's not a big thing anyways.. We'll see a gap up from that. It's a trade, and my broker shows it occurring last and my broker shows the price at .0992.
It shouldn't bother anybody who's long.. Perhaps I'm just feeling a little ornery and felt like stirring the pot a bit.
I see your point, but it wouldn't be Coke, Cherry Coke, Diet Coke, Coke Zero, Coke Cannabis...
It would be a sub-brand for sure. Most people don't realize all the sub brands are all owned by the big guys..
My point is that the oil is the only barrier to entry in the beverage market, and that the patent isn't as strong as one would like: if there is money, somebody will invent a way around the patent in order to provide a comparable product.
My broker shows .0992. To me, that's close. Sure, we'll likely see a gap up because of it, but I'm seeing the very last trade of the day at 100K shares at .0992.
Sub-brands like Sobe and other 'health drinks' change their formulas and flavors all the time... The only cost is lab geek labor and buying mass quantities of chemical inventories.
My original point was that if a competitor is able to mass produce CBD oils and if big players were interested, Dixie would lose market share to the dumb or cheap (for lack of a better description) mass-market Walmart customers who will buy the Coke brand 10-1 or 100-1 over Dixie.
My broker shows current value at .0992. For all intents and purposes, that's the closing value.
Those trades came in after hours: look for yourself. The final price for the day is $0.0992.
You question what is plainly obvious? I was just cracking on their self-promotion. At this point, unless I see pumpers raise the price without real news giving me a chance to increase my position, I'm long through feb 15 through end of march... Ill need to liquidate a portion for vacation purposes.
Boston Beer Co also has fewer shares outstanding and a much smaller float in compared to InBev which owns bud.
You got your thoughts backwards.
You're comparing Medbox to MJNA type of structures.
Boston Beer Co (Sam) : S/O 12.91M
InBev (bud): S/O 1.6 BILLION SHARES
Any demand for Sam will drive prices much higher than similar demand for bud. But MJNA has Bud like share structure.
But if you want to really compare, Bud has much larger revenues and market share and brand awareness and market cap... True value.
If Coke and Pepsi get in this game, MJNA will be the small boutique brand, with a ridiculous share structure and PPS just will never be that high.