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Representatives of the Cuban and US governments will hold the 3rd meeting about regulatory dialogue on July 12-13. They will discuss trade and financial regulations currently enforced in both countries.
Things are heating up folks... $MNII
Can't say for sure. I've talked with company and nothing is set in stone. They really want restitution, but may not be likely for MNII since land has been divided up now. He talked of starting a new business too...but again not very feasible for MNII since they would have nothing in Cuba without restitution. While nothing specific has been stated, it was assumed in my last correspondence that shareholders would probably just see the payout. It also sounds like a meeting of shareholders might be called when the claim is settled to figure out next steps.
Remember, those with big skin in the game were Cuban-Americans and they are mad their families lost everything to Castro, really mad! So they want the moon in this situation. As a shareholder, they understand original shareholders lost everything too in this stock and want to resolve that issue. So they understand the importance of giving back. Penny stock traders don't really grasp this as they just see potential $. Just keep in perspective that there is a cultural battle occurring behind the scenes and $ will solve some of it, but not all of it. So if you see $20/share and possible land rights in Cuba, is that just as good (considering land values will skyrocket once general US tourism commences again)? I guess it really just depends on your expectations. The chance of seeing $165/share and $8/share are smaller. Somewhere in the $20-$40 range seems plausible? Is that worth stockpiling shares in the .20 range now?
Something else to consider is the payout may be in yearly increments from Cuba. So it's probably not going to be a one-time big chunk. Although anything is still possible (if US lenders give Cuba money upfront to payoff debts).
This investment is a risk, like any. Nothing is for sure here, but the potential is massive, truly massive!!!
But nothing is set in stone yet. Likely, but not for sure...
We do know the real current OS...just not the float. The company has confirmed 1,280,597 is the OS. I've asked if they can tell me the float. I'll post once/if I find out. $MNII
I've also asked him to update the OTC page, but to no avail so far. I don't think that is a priority for them in this particular case. Everyone knows what they own...
And, for the impatient, every year that passes unresolved is another year of accrued interest ;) In $MNII's case, that's an extra $2.9 mil per year that's added to the claim. Win, win, win!
And people need to understand the worst case...
Even if the US gov't screws all of the claims holders and accepts 10cents to the dollar on the claims, and Cuba pays (2% simple interest - which they agreed to pay on their 35 year bonds after the nationalization of properties), the payout on $MNII shares is still $8-$10/ share!!! I don't foresee a situation where the current price doesn't net the shareholders MASSIVE gains! And we're still flipping shares at .20?! $MNII
Another question is the land? Will Manati be given previous land rights? If so, the value could shoot up astronomically with the embargo lifted and tourism cranking full force. I think they own some prime land! $MNII
One train of thought is the US banks will loan Cuba the money to pay off the claims. Kind of a win for everyone! I could see this potentially happening. The inflow of money from the embargo being lifted will be huge! So the banks would take this chance as they know $8 bil is a drop in the bucket to what Cuba will be brining in.
I’ve been digging deep into the Cuba Settlement issue…and it’s VERY COMPLICATED!
Here are my initial thoughts on a possible maximum resolution for us and why…
For:
The US would be stupid to not make Cuba pay the total principal plus interest in this case. If not, they show other countries that they can take over our property and not have to pay much in return.
In 1964, Castro sent a message to the White House that he was willing to pay $1 Billion cash for sugar related nationalizations. This message was never responded to, but it shows Castro was willing to pay big money even back then.
Cuban law states that by international laws, they agree they need to pay for the properties/businesses they took over. However, their valuations at the time were about ½ of what the US Claims support.
With Cuba in bad shape, they see that US money will bounce the economy back up. If they agree to pay and the US gov’t removes the embargo, then the cost of removing the embargo is FAR less than what Cuba owes.
The US controls $243 million in cuba’s assets due to the embargo. The new tourism this year into Cuba from the US is supposed to contribute in excess of $660 million in revenues. Can you imagine if they open the country to all US visitors and business again??? I don’t think payment will be an issue in installments over a few years.
Many believe the simple interest owed is not accurate, it should be compounded interest (which I agree with in principle, but Cuba would never pay it). That would be ridiculous!
Against:
Cuba’s leaders are sketchy and they have defaulted on most of their debt to this point.
Other countries have settled for pennies on the dollar for property taken over by Cuba…however, this mostly occurred a few years after the occurrence. Not 56 years later. And we don’t have an interest to cave to Cuba’s demands, they need us.
Cuba is perceived to be poor. I believe their gov’t has money, but doesn’t show the public this. However, they would probably drain their accounts if they pay the US debt in full.
Property restitution could be a good option, but messy option. Many lawsuits could occur if the Cuban gov’t gives back the original properties.
And can anyone make sense of the tax issue? How would shareholders be taxed on this dividend (?):
http://www.bna.com/hot-topic-cuba-n57982065950/
I read this and couldn’t make heads or tails of this article. I’m not too sure about rule 1033. Or this article…
http://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/administrative/taxation/policy/021716comments.authcheckdam.pdf
Here is a blog/site about the cuba trade regulations, and up to date articles on recent talks between the two countries and other current events…
http://www.cubatrade.org/blog/
Here’s an interesting article on the current state of the Manati property and others too.
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20040613/business/406130676
And finally an article by the company owner, Nicolas Gutierrez Jr.
http://repository.law.miami.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1181&context=umiclr
It's a good read. Nothing earth shattering. It's so hard to determine the final outcome of this issue as the variables are too many. Even if the gov't negotiates X, I think the corporations may be able to accept or deny and try to directly negotiate Y. I'll post some other reads I've found...
Think anyone is dumb enough to short this? LOL
This is good! Shake the weak hands and ride the empty ask to the moon soon! $MNII shares getting locked up!
Crazy someone with that many shares sold out so low...
What? A man can dream lol $MNII
25 great entry!!! Next week should be fun ;) $FTPM
If we see half of what we think, I'm buying vacation property in Cuba ASAP. Property values are going to skyrocket considering the oppression they are seeing currently. Win win! ;) $MNII
I'm positive all the major stakeholders feel this can't come soon enough too! Cuba NEEDS embargo lifted, US wants restitution for its people and those who lost all their family holdings want retribution! This is SO much bigger than us new shareholders, but it's amazing to be a part of history and be able to capitalize on it for our families. $MNII
I hear ya brother! Can't come soon enough! $MNII
Shouldn't be below $38 based on principal of the assets to shares lol. And yet, here we are! $MNII
Should see a pretty major jump in PPS once people see where we are headed! $YSTR
Pretty amazing to see! Multi dollar soon?! Now the waiting game begins! $MNII
Sold out my 53s. Looking for re-entry. Daily volumes and price changes shout big $ will be made here... $FTPM
That's awesome! GL $MNII lets see if we can find a seller lol
$FTPM = $$$ Looking good today!
Congrats! Wish I loaded the boat a little more quickly! Sadly .41 not bad when payoff should be $165 LOL $MNII
I'm waiting on a response. I asked quite a few questions, so we'll have a good pulse if/when he responds.
There's potential that it turns into $165,000 with a full payout! $MNII Not bad for $200 ;)
Looking for some new info from the company. I'll let you know if anything new transpires... $MNII
All great to hear! Penny bound soon... $PDPR
Nice update, thank you! $PDPR
Looking good here... $YSTR
Hi MMM,
FRAZ is our little gem... Shhhhhh. Some of us were silently loading. Same setup as MNII, but the claim is larger ($52mil), OS is believed to be 350k per the FCSC filing (so a 1/4 of what MNII has), possible restitution since it still operates as a sugar mill and company ownership. If the OS is accurate, a full payout will net shareholders around $665/share!!! Plus possible restitution and owning stock of a sugar company again for a further payout. Seems reasonable that FRAZ is the holy grail of long term holds. You can buy at $.10 and get a possible dividend of $665/share...
Hi MMM,
I don't think the company will merge MNII and FRAZ. Manati no longer has property or assets left in Cuba. There is now housing on that land. FRAZ still has an operation currently running as a sugar mill. So it really doesn't make sense to mix the two. My feeling is MNII will just see a payout and dissolution after. While FRAZ could see a payout, possible restitution and owning stock in a current business as it moves forward. JMO on this. They each have their merits and pros. $MNII could be fun for all!
Here’s my DD for MNII…
Here’s an article talking about the potential to pay off the US...
Only 15% of the total value is held by individual claimants, while 85% are held by corporate claimants. Given that the Top 20 claims — all of them corporate — make up two-thirds of the value of all certified U.S. claims, these large claims are the lynchpin for any successful approach to an eventual settlement. Of the top 20 claims ($1.25 billion in 1972), 42.5% ($530.6 million) were companies taken over by Cuba…
https://www.cubastandard.com/?p=14594
Sugar-related
Due to sugar’s prominent role in the Cuban economy, both before and during much of the revolutionary period, the biggest U.S.-owned properties seized during the Revolution included entities such as North American Sugar, United Fruit Sugar, West Indies Sugar, American Sugar, Francisco Sugar Company, Manati Sugar Company, and New Tuinucu Sugar Company.
While there doesn’t seem to be a hurry right now, the negotiations may be propelled forward by upcoming elections in the United States.”
“2016 is a pivotal year in U.S.-Cuban relations, because there is great uncertainty about what happens in November elections here in the United States,” said Brookings Institution Latin America expert Ted Piccone. “Some of the leading presidential candidates on the Republican side have made it very clear that they intend to pull back, reverse, do various things that would change Obama’s policy of opening up to Cuba. So that creates a certain sense of urgency to see how much progress can be made in this next, say, six to 10 months, to take advantage of that window of opportunity.”
“Keep in mind that some of these claims have probably not been continuously held by U.S. citizens or firms majority-owned by U.S. citizens and hence are no longer compensable according to FCSC rules. Furthermore, the Cuban government might challenge the procedures and valuations of some of the awards. The corporate claimants could be given the opportunity to be included in a lump-sum settlement—albeit possibly facing an equity hair-cut to limit the burden on Cuba and to ensure a minimum payment to the smaller claimants—or to “opt out” of the general settlement and instead seek alternative remedies. 64 As a precedent, the 1992 agreement with Germany allowed claimants to elect either to accept payment of their FCSC awards or to waive their right to payment in order to pursue claims for their properties under German law.”
Here’s the U.S. Justice Departments official claim authorized by the gov’t officials. This is the basis of the cost recovery for Manati Industries…
https://www.justice.gov/fcsc/cuba/documents/1501-3000/2525.pdf
Here’s the Helms-Burton Act that calls out the resolution of confiscated property before the Embargo can be lifted:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/104th-congress/house-bill/927/text
Questions about the Cuban Claims answered…
http://www.certifiedcubanclaims.org/faqs.htm
An article about the ways Cuba would reimburse the US Corps for what they owe…
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2015/12/01-reconciling-us-property-claims-cuba-feinberg/reconciling-us-property-claims-in-cuba-feinberg.pdf
Page showing that people were paying $8.50 per share back in 1955…
https://books.google.com/books?id=BRV3PDh-A54C&pg=PA33&lpg=PA33&dq=manati+sugar+stock&source=bl&ots=wUKUZd4Cvu&sig=psdgiH79xbuwUNFLbuT_D_H_foM&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjRuqXlsenMAhUS42MKHc1sDvM4ChDoAQg-MAk#v=onepage&q=manati%20sugar%20stock&f=false
An article showing why people are passionate about getting their full amount paid back… The U.S. Gov’t agrees!!!
http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/us-cuba/claims-hearings.htm
Another article showing proof that people were paying multiple dollars per share before the company was seized by Cuba…
https://www.justice.gov/fcsc/cuba/documents/1501-3000/1887.pdf
NY Business Search showing Manati still active and authorized shares are 5 million.
https://appext20.dos.ny.gov/corp_public/CORPSEARCH.ENTITY_INFORMATION?p_nameid=36183&p_corpid=30601&p_entity_name=manati&p_name_type=A&p_search_type=BEGINS&p_srch_results_page=0
The current principal is the amount Cuba owes the US for Manati in 1960. Now add in the 6% annum per the U.S. gov’t for 56 years and you can see the final amount owed is almost $212 Million!!!
Now let’s assume they don’t settle for the full amount. In the past they settled with Vietnam for 80% of interest and 100% of principal. They also had some settlements with Germany for 50% of interest and 100% of principal. So let’s take the 50% of interest (so 3% instead of 6%) for 56 years and it comes to $130 MILLION.
The company has confirmed the OS to be 1,280,597 shares. If the shareholders see the full distribution of the payment, that would be $130,215,432/1,280,597 = $101.68/Share… so 10,000 shares now equates to $1,016,833.80. Now that’s assuming the 50% interest paid, and shareholders see the entire payment. Interest could be much higher or none at all. With no business the assumption is we would see most of it?!?!
So the best case scenario is $211,843,017 payout and 1,280,597 OS = $165.43/share!!! X 10,000 shares = $1,654,252.02 WOW!!!
Worst case scenario is $48,587,847 (principal only) divided by 1,280,597 shares = $37.94 per share. X 10,000 shares = $379,415.59!!!
So essentially a $1,000 investment now could net you $380k to $1.6M in a few years!!!
That’s assuming the shareholders get the majority of the money (tbd). Not sure who else would get it?????
I'm just curious if most are here for a flip? Or do people really understand what they're buying? If people know what they own and don't flip, the ask will escalate quickly. If not, it will appear as shares at every level being passed back and forth until a flipper gets locked out.
Wasn't watching either today. I don't think it was the large bidder, but can't say for sure. Nice action today though. A few more days like that and we're in dollar land... $MNII
He's not the CEO, but yes I've talked to the company. Hold your shares ;) Could take a while for the gov't talks, but will be worth it in the end for shareholders at these levels. $MNII
It's technically $211+ million and increasing every year!
I'm assuming the president must own over 51% to make sure that a US National owns the company at all times. And then think about all those sitting on shares for 60-70 years. And knowing what we own (sort of). I'm thinking 200k is probably active float at this point.
Dang! Not bad for a few K's invested! Potentially epic payout! $MNII