Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Pacific Ethanol Does Zeachem Asset Management (Cellulosic)
Asset Management,Means Kinergy Will Be Selling their Cellulosic
Ethanol for them In Q4
pg.3 Zeachem Asset Management
http://www.pacificethanol.net/site/_documents/presentations/PEIXInvestorPresentationFinal.pdf
ZeaChem Inc. completed construction of its 250,000 gallons per year (GPY) cellulosic ethanol biorefinery in Boardman, Oregon. The project was completed on budget and is expected to begin production of cellulosic ethanol by the end of 2012.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zeachem-completes-construction-cellulosic-ethanol-120000762.html
Lets Hope they Sell Some In Q4,They Started Up Oct. 29th
3rd Party Cellulosic Gallons Gotta Be Worth Alot More than Regular Ethanol
Prospects for Q4 Earnings
1.Improve the balance sheet and operations by reducing financing costs
2.Increase ownership interest to 80% in its ethanol plants and improve their debt position.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pacific-ethanol-extend-maturity-32-142245756.html
3.3rd Party Gallons Increase,with CA. Plant Openings and Zeachem Cellulosic Plant Opened
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zeachem-completes-construction-cellulosic-ethanol-120000762.html
4.30,000 Tons Imported Sorghum,and 40 Acres Locally Grown
http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20121203-904549.html
CEC California Energy Commision Meeting Aug. 1st
pg. 69 Line 19,20,21,22 & 23
30,000 Tons Of Argentina Milo/Sorghum Imported
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2011-ALT-1/documents/2012-08-01_workshop/2012-08-01_transcript.pdf
5.Better Margins from Cheaper Ethanol Making Costs from Cheaper feedstock (Sorghum)
6.Each Gallon of Advanced Biofuel Produces 1.5 Advanced Biofuel RINs
Sorghum 1.5 RIN = $7,470,000 RIN`s
http://www.opisnet.com/news/sample/daily_market_overview_sample.pdf
Carbon Credits $17.50
Advanced Biofuel D5 RINs .50c
7.Advanced Bio-fuel Producers eligible for financial incentives
($1.00 per Gallon TAX credits)
http://www.ethanolrfa.org/pages/tax-incentives
8.EASY COMPS ~ Analyst Estimate - .06c for Q4 2012
~ What Is PEIX Comp. from 2011 Year Over Year Q4 loss of $2.4 Million
~ Quarter Over Qaurter Comp The company lost $2.4 million in the third quarter
9.then Factor In They Were Already Headed to Profitability in Q4,So Stocktons Advanced Biofuel Money Should Go STRAIT to the Bottom Line
Sept. 30, 2012 -1.13%
June 30, 2012 -2.38%
March 31, 2012 -3.78%
June 30, 2012 -2.38%
March 31, 2012 -3.78%
Since Q1 Pacific Ethanol has Gained by Cost Efficiency by 2.65% an Average Of 1.325% per Quarter.
If This Trend Rate Continues Q4 Is Profitable With Out these Cost Efficiencies
The company is running below capasity = 83 percent speed Q3
Then the use of bushel is 4,293,104 bushel in a quarter
The ship with Milo was 30,000MT = 1,181,100 bushels = 27.5 % of the demand in Q4
My guess will be they will be around 40 percent Milo in Q4 = 1,717,242 bushels Milo
with a yield 2.9 = 4,980,000 gallons from Milo in Q4
Each Gallon of Advanced Biofuel Produces 1.5 Advanced Biofuel RINs
Sorghum 1.5 RIN = $7,470,000 RIN`s
Add In
Advanced Bio-fuel Producers eligible for financial incentives.
$1.00 per Gallon There is some TAX credits for Cellulosic production per gallon, and there is TAX credits for Biodiesel per gallon, but Advanced Ethanol, well Cellulosic Ethanol and BioDiesel is Advanced Ethanol, and the incentives is around $1.00 for both on them per gallon - and I will think it will be the same for Advanced Ethanol made from second generation feedstock, but just what I am thinking --- Advanced is Advanced and different to corn ethanol
(It Sure Looks Like a Beat from Where Im Standing)
Prospects for Q4 Earnings
Improve the balance sheet and operations by reducing financing costs
Increase ownership interest to 80% in its ethanol plants and improve their debt position.
3rd Party Gallons Increase,with CA. Plant Openings and Zeachem Cellulosic Plant Opened
30,000 Tons Imported Sorghum,and 40 Acres Locally Grown
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=http://www.matba.com.ar/&prev=/search%3Fq%3DMercado%2Ba%2BT%25C3%25A9rmino%2Bde%2BBuenos%2BAires%2B(MATba)%26hl%3Den%26tbo%3Dd%26biw%3D1153%26bih%3D777&sa=X&ei=HWO5UNbtDs_wrAHP4IHYCQ&ved=0CDcQ7gEwAQ
The company is running below capasity = 83 percent speed Q3
Then the use of bushel is 4,293,104 bushel in a quarter
The ship with Milo was 30,000MT = 1,181,100 bushels = 27.5 % of the demand in Q4
My guess will be they will be around 40 percent Milo in Q4 = 1,717,242 bushels Milo
with a yield 2.9 = 4,980,000 gallons from Milo in Q4
If every gallon from milo generate 1,5 RIN = $7,470,000 RIN`s
Advanced Bio-fuel Producers eligible for financial incentives.
http://www.ethanolrfa.org/pages/tax-incentives
1. $1.00 per Gallon There is some TAX credits for Cellulosic production per gallon, and there is TAX credits for Biodiesel per gallon, but Advanced Ethanol, well Cellulosic Ethanol and BioDiesel is Advanced Ethanol, and the incentives is around $1.00 for both on them per gallon - and I will think it will be the same for Advanced Ethanol made from second generation feedstock, but just what I am thinking --- Advanced is Advanced and different to corn ethanol.
http://www.opisnet.com/news/sample/daily_market_overview_sample.pdf
Carbon Credits $17.50
Advanced Biofuel D5 RINs .50c
(Each Gallon of Advanced Biofuel Produces 1.5 Advanced Biofuel RINs)
If every gallon from milo generate 1.5 RIN = $7,470,000 RIN`
then Factor In They Were Already Headed to Profitability in Q4,So Stocktons Advanced Biofuel Money Should Go STRAIT to the Bottom Line
Sept. 30, 2012 -1.13%
June 30, 2012 -2.38%
March 31, 2012 -3.78%
June 30, 2012 -2.38%
March 31, 2012 -3.78%
Since Q1 Pacific Ethanol has Gained by Cost Efficiency by 2.65% an Average Of 1.325% per
Quarter.
If This Trend Rate Continues Q4 Is Profitable
Analyst Estimate - .06c for Q4 2012
What Is PEIX Comp. from 2011 Year Over Year Q4 loss of $2.4 Million
Quarter Over Qaurter Comp The company lost $2.4 million in the third quarter
(It Sure Looks Like a Beat from Where Im Standing)
Kinergy Selling Zeachems Cellulosi Ethanol this Quarter?
ZeaChem Completes Construction of Cellulosic Ethanol Biorefinery
Press Release: ZeaChem Inc. – Mon, Oct 29, 2012 8:00 AM EDT
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zeachem-completes-construction-cellulosic-ethanol-120000762.html
250,000 gallons per year (GPY) cellulosic ethanol biorefinery in Boardman, Oregon. The project was completed on budget and is expected to begin production of cellulosic ethanol by the end of 2012.
Advanced Bio-fuel Producers incentives by using sorghum grain
"by using sorghum grain, ethanol producers may qualify as Advanced Bio-fuel Producers and become eligible for financial incentives."
This Is Mentioned In the Dec.3rd Press Release for by Chromatin, Inc.
http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20121203-904549.html
December 3, 2012, 8:00 a.m. ET
California-Grown Sorghum Used in Ethanol Production
STOCKTON, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--December 03, 2012--
Chromatin, Inc., a privately held provider of innovative crop breeding technology, sorghum seed products and feedstocks, announced it has generated the first crop of sorghum that has been grown and used for ethanol production by a California ethanol company, Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (NASDAQ: PEIX). This achievement paves the way for future opportunities to use locally grown sorghum as a versatile and resilient crop that is a more energy efficient and lower cost alternative to corn.
Using sorghum seed provided by Chicago-based Chromatin, Inc., L and R Mussi Farms of Stockton, CA produced 40 acres of sorghum that were harvested and delivered to Pacific Ethanol's ethanol production plant in Stockton, CA.
"We were pleasantly surprised by sorghum's flexibility. It's a high-yielding, easy to grow crop regardless of environmental conditions, and it uses less fertilizer and less water than corn," said Rudy Mussi co-owner of Mussi Farms. Daphne Preuss, Chromatin's CEO commented "We were pleased to see that growers were able to plant and produce high quality sorghum with minimal modifications to their current practices and that ethanol plants encountered no difficulties in substituting sorghum for corn. In addition, Chromatin has shown that the residue left over after the harvest of sorghum grain can be used as high quality animal feed, further enhancing the output from the land used in production of this crop."
Ethanol plants in California have been seeking alternative crops for corn to reduce feedstock costs, improve carbon footprint, and to source feedstock from locally grown energy-efficient crops. While sorghum imported from other regions has been used in California ethanol plants in the past, Chromatin's program is the first instance of supplying locally grown grain to the Pacific Ethanol plant in Stockton, CA, resulting in greater cost efficiency and an improved carbon footprint. Consequently, by using sorghum grain, ethanol producers may qualify as Advanced Bio-fuel Producers and become eligible for financial incentives.
Neil Koehler, Pacific Ethanol's CEO, stated, "During the third quarter, Pacific Ethanol used sorghum for approximately 30 percent of the feedstock at our Stockton plant. Blended with corn, sorghum has similar conversion properties to corn and produces even lower carbon ethanol."
Chromatin is exploring other opportunities to grow sorghum grain in California and expects to expand its production in 2013.
2 Speculative Energy Stocks Worth A Look At
Seeking Alpha:2 Speculative Energy Stocks Worth A Look At Current Levels PEIX and GST
When it comes to the energy sector, many stocks that trade under $5/share are considered to be very speculative. As a result, I wanted to focus on companies that could benefit from developments within
their specific markets. In this article I've chosen two highly-speculative companies that have met the follow criteria:
Each company must trade below $1/share
Each company must have a Market Cap under $100 million
Each company must have announced significant developments in the last 24 hours
Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (PEIX) which is based in Sacramento, California currently "produces and markets low carbon renewable fuels in the United States. It sells ethanol to gasoline refining and distribution companies; provides ethanol transportation, storage, and delivery services in the Western United States, primarily in California, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Colorado, Idaho, and Washington". (Yahoo! Finance)
From a fundamental perspective, shares of PEIX currently carry a market cap of $49 million, have traded down 2.83% since July 1st and are currently trading in-line with their 50 DMA and at a 12.82% discount to their 200 DMA.
On Wednesday December 19th it was announced that the company plans on increasing its ownership
interest in its several of its plants and improve on several individual debt positions. PEIX also extended the maturity of its revolving credit line to 2015, agreed to purchase $21.5M in plant debt to be extended to 2016, and will purchase an additional 13% interest in the plants to increase its ownership interest to 80%. These moves should all bode well for the company's bottom line and as a result I think shares are undervalued at their current price point of $0.34/share.
Gastar Exploration, Ltd.(GST) which is based in Houston, Texas operates as "an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas and oil in the United
States. It focuses on the unconventional reserves, such as shale resource plays". (Yahoo! Finance)
Fundamentally speaking, shares of GST currently carry a market cap of $58.50 million, have traded down 55.13% since July 1st and are currently trading at a 3.37% premium to their 50 DMA and at a 39.08% discount to their 200 DMA.
On Wednesday December 19th the company said it was on track to achieve its guidance target of having 38 horizontally operated Marcellus wells on-line and production ready by year-end. The company also increased its guidance related to its estimated average daily total net production in Q4 to 42-43 MMcfe/day from previous 38-40 MMcfe/day. If Gastar can meet or exceed both its total net production per day, as well as the number of wells that are operational I see no reason why potential investors shouldn't acquire a position at current levels.
Final Analysis
Are there any negative catalysts potential investors should consider before establishing a position in either company? As is the case with any energy company, potential investors need to keep in mind some of the negative catalysts that go hand-in-hand with both Pacific Ethanol and Gastar Exploration. On one hand, any negative indication in terms of production could result in the sell-off of either stock. On the other hand, weaker than expected earnings at any point over the course of the next 12-18 months could also send shares down a very unfavorable path.
For potential investors looking to establish a position in either Pacific Ethanol or Gastar Exploration, I'd take a closer look at each company and keep in mind the primary positive and negative catalysts moving forward. Given the fact that both companies are making considerable strides in terms of capacity and production, I'd look to establish a small to medium position at current levels and add to that position once future developments are announced.
http://finance.yahoo.com/mbview/threadview/?&bn=e150c862-ec07-320e-8c0a-6809302fb2a2&tid=1355967200098-d915389c-1f71-4d7d-9084-e45e9d5a9fcc
Reasons for Importing from Brazil
1.No Teriffs Any More On Ethanol Coming In,Only Teriff Is
On Our Ethanol Going to Brazil .54c per Gallon
2.Sugar Cane Feedstock is Cheaper than Corn Feedstock Right Now
Cost Advantage Makes the Brazil Ethanol Cheaper
3.Sugar Ethanol has a Lower Carbon Foot Print than Corn Ethanol
Except Pacific Ethanols
So Cheaper and Cleaner
that Said Sugar Cain Harvest Is Over,and Brazil Is Increasing Ethanol Usage to 25% per Gallon from 20% per Gallon May 2013.
These 2 Items Look To Stop Brazil Exporting Ethanol to the US.
Very Soon.
You May Ask Sash or Stockrosen for a Better Explaination,and
Better Insight
Some things Right Now
1.Ethanol Output in U.S. Fell 1.3% to 824,000
2.Corn getting Cheaper from Mississippi Bottleneck Stopping Exports
3.New South American Corn Crop Coming will Cut Corn Price
4.Sorghum is $1 Cheaper than Corn per Bushel Aprox.
5.Advanced Biofuels Produced with Sorghum Sell for More,and Each
Gallon Produces Aprox. .80c Worth of RINs
7.Madera Might Open Soon,the Permits are In
8.According to Calcs. I've Seen and Posted PEIX Can Show Profit in Q4
ect...
Youv'e Seen the Posts
Im Getting Tired Of Waiting too,but They Know They Need Profit
in the next 2 Qs.
Now that they Have the Shares they Dilluted for,Nothing to Stop
them Wanting the PPS to Go Up Except If they Want to Do the Other
33% Plant Ownership Buy Back.
but Ya,High Ethanol Stockpiles Pisses Me Off too
My Take On Ethanol Over Supply
Brazil Is Flooding the US Market
But Their Sugar Cane Harvest Is Complete,So they Should Taper Off
Their Next Harvest Is In March
In May they are Increasing their Ethanol Use In Brazil to 25%
that Should Slow Down US Imports
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-18/brazil-said-to-plan-higher-ethanol-blend-as-early-as-may.html
I See Imports Decreasing Over the Next Couple Months
Left Click the Google URL,turn It Blue
Then Drag & Drop in the Post Box
global corn price forecast lowered by (WASDE)
http://www.governorsbiofuelscoalition.org/?p=4610
USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) out this week reported a big increase in the Chinese corn crop, raising total global grain production this year to nearly 2706 million metric tons, the second-largest on record.
Global 2012/13 corn production is raised 9.4 million tons with China corn output up 8.0 million tons based on recent estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Strong price incentives to expand corn plantings and favorable summer rainfall, particularly in the northeast provinces, support increases in area and yields raising them to new records. Corn production for Canada is raised 1.5 million tons this month to a new record on higher yields and a record area as reported by Statistics Canada. Russia corn production is raised 1.0 million tons, also a new record.
There were offsets to those increases, particularly in Argentina and Ukraine, so global ending stocks are still expected to be lower and USDA maintained corn ending stocks in the U.S. for the marketing year at a tight 647 million bushels.”The drought reduced production by four billion bushels from what we thought earlier this year,” said USDA Chief Economist Joe Glauber. “No question that’s rationed demand and we’ve seen a really tight stock situation.”
The new forecast lowered the season average corn price estimate by 20 cents to $7.40 per bushel, which Glauber says has tightened margins for ethanol producers this year. “If you look at ethanol production, it’s been below 13 billion gallons on an annualized basis, if you look at weekly production numbers, and that reflects the lower margins for sure,” he said. Corn use for ethanol is forecast at 4.5 billion bushels, 10% lower than last year.
However, if you consider the fact that ethanol production returns about a third of that corn in the form of distillers grains to the livestock market, the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), notes that the U.S. ethanol industry is projected to use only 78.9 million metric tons of grain or less than three percent of the world grain supply – the lowest rate in five years. “Further, more grain will be available for non-ethanol use than any other time in history with the single exception of last year,” said RFA Vice President, Research and Analysis Geoff Cooper. “In fact, grain available for non-ethanol use in 2012/13 will be 15% higher than 10 years ago in 2003/04.”
This is all important because it illustrates several important points:
1. Farmers are more productive than ever, despite weather challenges.
2. Markets respond to higher prices by rationing demand and increasing production.
3. The world is producing enough corn for food, feed, and fuel demands.
corn basis drop $1.00+ below the Board of Trade
“Between St. Louis and Cairo, the basis bids are $1.00 plus below the Board of Trade. Elevators in that area are very skeptical about taking corn in and being able to ship it,” said Thornton. “Obviously the low water has a huge impact to this, not only to the elevator systems, but also to the end users who are trying to get it down through the mid-Miss area. They’re very concerned if the river is going to be closed if they’ll be able to actually get the corn.”
Illinois exports over 50 percent of the corn grown in the state
http://www.wjbc.com/common/page.php?feed=221&pt=Illinois+losing+corn+exports+as+basis+levels+drop&id=21982&is_corp=0
Proposed Award Passing Grade
they were not funded Yet
It Says In the Paragraph at the Top Of the Link
Its Still Got a Chance Before March 15,2013
but Your Right,It Doesn't Look Good Unless You Factor In
the CEC Wants All CA. Bio Refineries Open & Madera Is the
Only One Not Open.
Brazil to produce more sugar, less ethanol
Brazil Moving Up to 25% Ethanol Blend in 2013
http://www.argusmedia.com/News/Article?id=815717
Brazil to produce more sugar, less ethanol
Friday, 14.12.2012, 10:42
http://en.tengrinews.kz/industry_infrastructure/Brazil-to-produce-more-sugar-less-ethanol--15222/
Ethanol Rises for Second Day as Brazil’s Sugar Harvest Nears End
By Joshua Falk - Nov 26, 2012
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-26/ethanol-rises-for-second-day-as-brazil-s-sugar-harvest-nears-end.html
Target Price
I Don't have One
Sash,Biff and Stock are Better in that Dept.
I Just Look Up Info
Glad You Like the Info I Have been Able to Search Up,It Took
Alot Of Time.
Thanks a8v8t8 for Coming Over to IHUB,I Can Only Post Links of
What I find Here
Yahoo is Weeding Out Spam,and Doesnt Allow Links Any more
a Couple Other things I Found
Sorghum and Corn Prices On the Buenas Aires Exchange Translated
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&u=http://www.matba.com.ar/&prev=/search%3Fq%3DMercado%2Ba%2BT%25C3%25A9rmino%2Bde%2BBuenos%2BAires%2B(MATba)%26hl%3Den%26tbo%3Dd%26biw%3D1153%26bih%3D777&sa=X&ei=HWO5UNbtDs_wrAHP4IHYCQ&ved=0CDcQ7gEwAQ
CEO of Pacific Ethanol Neil Koehler told the same CEC committee August 1 they hope to bring in a vessel-load of sorghum from Argentina
http://sierra2thesea.net/energy/valley-ethanol-plants-work-to-wean-themselves-from-midwest-corn
http://sierra2thesea.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Screen-shot-2012-09-12-at-3.37.24-PM.png
CEC California Energy Commision Meeting Aug. 1st
pg. 69 Line 19,20,21,22 & 23
30,000 Tons Of Argentina Milo/Sorghum Imported
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2011-ALT-1/documents/2012-08-01_workshop/2012-08-01_transcript.pdf
I Found this post On Hubert H Humphrys UC Davis Facebook Pg. With a Picture
October 10
Pacific Ethanol typically produces its ethanol with corn sourced locally near Stockton or via train shipment from the mid-west, but they recently received a shipment of milo from Argentina. Founding President & CEO, Neil Koehler took Javier Tonatto (Argentina Humphrey Fellow working on biofuels), Tahawar Hussain (Pakistan working in renewable energy), Nasr Alshamsi (Oman port inspector) and Jaqueline Nesi (Brazil port inspector) to the port to see the shipment being unloaded.
https://www.facebook.com/UCDavisHHH
It Was Removed Days Later
I think they Realized I Posted the Link & Wanted to Stay Covert.
They Unloaded the Argentine Sorghum/Milo Oct. 10th,at the Begining of Q4
What I have Found So Far On PEIX
Request for Funding from CEC
http://www.energy.ca.gov/business_meetings/2012_packets/2012-11-14/Item_05_Alt_Fuels_OIR/2012-02-22_Joint_Letter_to_Commissioner_Peterman.pdf
Madera Fedral Operating Permit
http://www.valleyair.org/notices/Docs/2012/10-29-12%20(C-1111919)/Public%20Notice%20Package.pdf
Madera Funding $2.4 Million Proposed Award
http://www.energy.ca.gov/contracts/PON-11-601_NOPA_R2.pdf
California Energy Commission Meeting Sept. 22,2011 Neil Koehler Says
Thier Working On Biomass Cogeneration,Easily Done a Year Later.
On Pg.114 lines 14,15,& 16
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2010-ALT-1/documents/2011-09-22_forum/2011-09-22_transcript.pdf
This is What a Biomass Cogen Looks Like
The Mississippi Could Shut Down By Christmas
With International Corn Exports Off the Table,and Low Ethanol Production (I See Corn Price Dropping)
There Is Plenty Of Corn to Service US. Need
60 Days till the Army Corps of Engineers to blast and clear the series of rock pinnacles down river
* Foster said the extra water would be for 60 days or so — time for the Army Corps of Engineers to blast and clear the series of rock pinnacles down river, near the town of Thebes, that threaten barges during this time of low water.
* 2 to 3 Weeks till Shut Down,If Something Isnt Done
* Shipping companies say the economic consequences of a shut-down on the Mississippi would be devastating. About $7 billion in vital commodities typically moves on the river at this time of year — including grain, coal, heating oil, and cement.
* Shipping companies are hauling 15 barges at a time instead of a typical string of 25, because the bigger runs are too big for current operating conditions.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-12-07/bins-bulge-with-grain-as-low-water-threatens-mississippi-traffic
EPA Makes Sorghum an Advanced Biofuel Feedstock
Like the Fairy Godmother
http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2012/12/epa_makes_sorghum_an_advanced_biofuel_feedstock_1.html
I Talked to Janice at IR Today
She Just Returned from Maturnity Leave,& Said Rebecca Herrick Is Off till the 17th
There is 3 Women Working On It for Pacific Ethanol,I Forgot Who Janice Said I Talked to Yesterday.
* I Asked her if She had Read the Email from Yesterday,she Said Yes and Understood that Investors Were Up Set.
* I Asked Her Why they Hadnt Announced International Milo Was Being Used
~ She Said It Was Mentioned In a Quarterly Earnings Transcript
* I Asked Her Why The Biomass Cogeneration at Stockton Plant had Never Been Announce,as That and Milo Qualifies them (as per the EPA) to Produce Advanced Biofuel.
~ She Said She Would ask and Get Back to Me Next Week
* (Yesterday) I Asked Her about thier Request for Full Value of Credits for Producing LCFS,and If They had Gotten Any.
~ She Was aware of the Request,and She Would Ask
* I Asked her Why There Was not Good Communication with Investors
~ She Said They are Not Going to PR Fluff pieces
Just to Let You Know
When I Found a Picture and Post of (Neil Koehler and Brazil,US AG. Inspectors,Members of UC Davis Hubert H. Humphry fellow ship) at the Unloading of Argentinian Milo
I Mentioned it on Yahoo Posted the Link On IHUB
2 Days Later the Post & Picture Were Removed from the Website
I Believe,Its Their Intention to Be Covert
A Good Suprise Would Be Nice
Global Corn Stocks Higher but Prices Lower
USDA’s December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates held some surprises for corn
http://www.agweb.com/article/global_corn_stocks_higher_but_prices_lower/
USDA raised world corn production 9.4 million tons
"Corn exports have been terrible," says Gartner
"The quality of our corn is suspect, and there have been complaints out of Southeast Asia." Southeast Asian nations, some of which are key buyers of U.S. corn, have been particularly concerned about aflatoxin levels, she says.
"Getting the corn to the Gulf is also an issue," says Gartner. Low water levels in the Mississippi River
river traffic could come to a halt if conditions don’t improve.
Share Holder Meeting
Would be Nice to Hear % of Milo they are Using
Advanced Biofuel for Milo (if they are Producing It)
Corn Oil for the Other 2 Plants
Yeast Teck being Used in all 4 Plants (Maybe)
But Mainly About Madera,Fed Production Permit
Was filed Oct. 29 & 45 Day comment Period is Done
tommorrow.
They Can Produce with Milo there to,for Profit
I Suspect they will Say Nothing and Stay Covert,but they Could
Say Everything to get the $6M share Vote to Go thier Way
Anyway,the CCI on the Chart is Booming (So the Market has Expectations)
Bearish ?
Bearish Production not Price
FYI: Corn Bearish Price do to Old Miss Bottleneck making Actual US Glut
There Was Easilly enough Corn for US Needs,Its International Demand that Isnt able to
Access Corn driving it Lower
Ethanol Production is Bearish,not Demand
Demand is Actually Increasing
2013 Ethanol Mandate 13.8 Billion Gallons
Corn and Ethanol Report
searching for alternative ways to move and sell corn
‘Humongous Problem’
http://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/nation/2012/12/11/1761151/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-07/bins-bulge-with-grain-as-low-water-threatens-mississippi-traffic.html
U.S. Army Corps Rejects Senators’ Request Water Releases
U.S. Army Corps Rejects Senators’ Request for Water Releases
By Brian Wingfield - Dec 7, 2012 7:02 AM PT
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers rejected lawmakers’ request to increase the flow of water from a major tributary to the Mississippi River, where declining water levels are jeopardizing about $7 billion in cargo.
“The Corps lacks authority” to adjust flows from the Missouri River to benefit navigation on the Mississippi, Jo- Ellen Darcy, the Army’s assistant secretary for civil works, said in a letter to Senator Richard Durbin, an Illinois Democrat, which was made public today.
Releasing water from reservoirs on the Missouri River would put at risk water supplies in the upper Midwest, according to the letter. Rain that is forecast and expedited removal of rock formations are expected to keep the Mississippi River navigable, according to the letter.
Advanced Biofuel Price,Advanced Biofuel RINs Price
They Get More Money for That
Pricing Guide
Advanced Biofuel RINs - 2012 = .50c +or- .01c
http://www.opisnet.com/news/sample/daily_market_overview_sample.pdf
Biomass Cogeneration,grain sorghum & D5 RINs
Biomass Cogeneration Stockton Plant,grain sorghum-ethanol will qualify as an advanced biofuel earning D5 RINs
California Energy Commission, Neil Koehler (Biomass Cogeneration)
At Stockton Plant
Meeting Transcript dated 22 sept. 2011 – Page 114 lines 14, 15, 16
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2010-ALT-1/documents/2011-09-22_forum/2011-09-22_transcript.pdf
With the U.S. EPA approving a grain sorghum fuel pathway,California ethanol producers are taking a
closer look at the feedstock. For those willing to convert to biogas and combined heat and power, EPA has also said grain sorghum-ethanol will qualify as an advanced biofuel earning D5 RINs
Chart: CCI & RSI Breaks 200DMA,Pierced Upper BB
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PEIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96315961686
Dec. 7, 2012 PEIX After Hours Trading
16:14 $ .359 High 300
Some One Still Wants to Role MM or HFT
Maybe Annual Share Holder Meeting Rocks It
CHINA !
Sash,Are They Recieving More $ per Gallon?
Advanced biofuels are not in as great a supply, so refiners are chasing after those gallons and credits," he said. Refiners have an obligation to blend so much
Each gallon of ethanol produced has a RIN, and RINs from advanced biofuel plants are more valuable than RINs from conventional plants.
ethanol producers need to decide whether to wait around and see if EPA approves. those methods, or go ahead and invest in biodigesters. Capital costs of capturing CO2 or using "green" electricity are less expensive.
(California Energy Commission, Neil Koehler (Biomass Cogeneration)
Pacific Ethanol has a Biomass Cogen at Stockton Plant) = "green"
electricity
(It Looks Like They Already Comply With EPA,& Might Be Charging More per Gallon)
Your Source:13 HOURS AGO • BY RICHARD PIERSOL / LINCOLN JOURNAL STAR
Pacific Ethanol Gross Profit Margin Quarterly Trend
http://ycharts.com/companies/PEIX/gross_profit_margin
Sept. 30, 2012 -1.13%
June 30, 2012 -2.38%
March 31, 2012 -3.78%
Since Q1 Pacific Ethanol has Gained by Cost Efficiency by 2.65% an Average Of 1.325% per
Quarter.
If This Trend Rate Continues Q4 Is Profitable
A gross profit margin is the difference between sales and the cost of goods sold divided by revenue
Cost Efficiencies
Biomass Cogeneration at Stockton
Yeast Tech
Corn Oil
Grain Sorghum (International & Local)
Paid Senior Notes (Intrest Payments Relieved)
Pacific Ethanol Gross Profit Margin Quarterly
Sept. 30, 2012 -1.13%
June 30, 2012 -2.38%
March 31, 2012 -3.78%
(See the Trend ?)
Since Q1 Pacific Ethanol has Gained by Cost Efficiency by 2.65% an Average Of 1.325% per
Quarter.
If This Trend Rate Continues Q4 Is Profitable
A gross profit margin is the difference between sales and the cost of goods sold divided by revenue
Cost Efficiencies
Biomass Cogeneration at Stockton
Yeast Tech
Corn Oil
Grain Sorghum (International & Local)
Paid Senior Notes (Intrest Payments Relieved)
EPA Grants Grain Sorghum Advanced Biofuel Status
EPA APPROVES GRAIN SORGHUM AS FEEDSTOCK FOR ADVANCED BIOFUEL
Dec. 5, 2012
Neil Koehler, Pacific Ethanol’s CEO, stated, "During the third quarter, Pacific Ethanol used sorghum for approximately 30 percent of the feedstock at our Stockton plant. Blended with corn, sorghum has similar conversion properties to corn and produces even lower carbon ethanol."
Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (PEIX). This achievement paves the way for future opportunities to use locally grown sorghum as a versatile and resilient crop that is a more energy efficient and lower cost alternative to corn.
Using sorghum seed provided by Chicago-based Chromatin, Inc., L and R Mussi Farms of Stockton, CA produced 40 acres of sorghum that were harvested and delivered to Pacific Ethanol’s ethanol production plant in Stockton, CA.
Fed Incentives,and Programs
The information in this list is updated after legislation is enacted.
Sort by: Category Agency
Incentives
*Advanced Biofuel Feedstock Incentives
*Advanced Biofuel Production Grants and Loan Guarantees
*Advanced Biofuel Production Payments
*Advanced Energy Research Project Grants
*Advanced Technology Vehicle (ATV) Manufacturing Incentives
*Alternative Fuel Tax Exemption
*Biobased Transportation Research Funding
*Biodiesel Education Grants
*Biomass Research and Development Initiative
*Cellulosic Biofuel Producer Tax Credit
*Ethanol Infrastructure Grants and Loan Guarantees
*Fuel Cell Motor Vehicle Tax Credit
*Hydrogen Fuel Excise Tax Credit
*Hydrogen Fuel Infrastructure Tax Credit
*Hydrogen Fuel Mixture Excise Tax Credit
*Idle Reduction Equipment Excise Tax Exemption
*Improved Energy Technology Loans
*Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Tax Credit
*Value-Added Producer Grants (VAPG)
California State Incentives
Alternative Fuel and Vehicle Incentives
*Commercial alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) demonstrations and deployment;
*Alternative and renewable fuel production;
*Research and development of alternative and renewable fuels and innovative technologies;
*AFV manufacturing;
*Workforce training; and
Public education, outreach, and promotion.
Because the EPA Designated Grain Sorghum an Advanced Biofuel,Pacific Ethanol Is Eligable for Incentives that They Qualify for
These Are Lists Of Incentives Associated With Advanced Biofuel,Which Ones Pacific Ethanol Will Recieve is Yet to Be Found Out.
Grain Sorghum Advanced Biofuel and Incentives
http://advancedbiofuelsusa.info/epa-grants-biofuel-pathway-for-grain-sorghum
http://www.afdc.energy.gov/laws/fed_summary
Mississippi River Water Levels at Historic Lows
More than $7 billion in farm commodities may be stuck north of St. Louis as the Mississippi River is hitting historic lows, thanks to this year's drought. In addition, a lack of dredging along the river has caused ship channels to be filled in with sand. TWILA Host Mike Danna has our lead story this week.
Bins Bulge With Grain Low Water Threatens Mississippi/Traffic
Corn
"you change the price of the product drastically.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-07/bins-bulge-with-grain-as-low-water-threatens-mississippi-traffic.html
Walter said. If the Mississippi closes, he said things will start to get “pretty ugly” in two or three weeks.
Greg Guenther, a Belleville, Illinois, family farmer, said his corn yields this year are the lowest in 35 years -- about 90 bushels an acre, or half his average. Guenther expects he’ll be trucking his crop to ethanol plants if Cargill and Bunge (BG) terminals in St. Louis stop accepting local grain.
Walter said, which may move 20,000 to 30,000 bushels a day -- compared with 150,000 bushels a day by barge. There’s no local market
If a river closing lasts long enough, Gateway FS will look into moving corn by truck to Cairo, about 100 miles south. That will be expensive and time-consuming, with farmers or their employees carrying grain on farm-owned tractor-trailers.
“When you start slowing down inputs coming up the river, you stop that funnel going for the exports,
and you stop certain segments, you change the price of the product drastically.” Whittington said. “It’s a humongous problem.”
Bins Bulge With Grain Low Water Threatens Mississippi Traffic
Bins Bulge With Grain as Low Water Threatens Mississippi Traffic - Bloomberg
Already suffering aftershocks from the worst drought in 50 years, farmers are improvising, searching for alternative ways to move and sell corn, soybeans and other grains. It’s too expensive to use rail cars or trucks to ship grain more than 600 miles from St. Louis to export terminals in New Orleans.
They’re looking for local buyers or seeking to sell to ethanol plants. Farmers along the Kaskaskia River in southern Illinois may drive hundreds of miles south to Cairo, where the Ohio River empties into the Mississippi and barges are moving normally.
Barchart.com - Futures Prices for Corn
Ethanol’s Discount to Gasoline Narrows to 5-Month Low on Demand - Bloomberg
Ethanol’s Discount to Gasoline Narrows to 5-Month Low on Demand
Ethanol’s discount to gasoline narrowed to the weakest level in almost five months on increased demand for the biofuel.
The grain-based additive’s discount to gasoline was 18.79 cents a gallon based on front-month futures, versus 21.08 cents yesterday, the least since July 18. The spread has averaged 62.2 cents this year and reached 99.8 cents Sept. 28.
“It feels like there’s some buying to do,” said Jim Damask, a manager at BiofuelsConnect, a Jupiter, Florida-based alternative energy broker. “People are asking for higher prices and they’re getting it. It seems like they’re filling their short-term needs and they have more short-term needs.”
Ethanol Demand
Dec 7, 2012 - West Coast Ethanol added 0.5 cent to $2.575 a gallon
Ethanol’s Discount to Gasoline Narrows to 5-Month Low on Demand
By Mario Parker - Dec 6, 2012
Ethanol’s discount to gasoline narrowed to the weakest level in almost five months on increased demand for the biofuel.
The grain-based additive’s discount to gasoline was 18.79 cents a gallon based on front-month futures, versus 21.08 cents yesterday, the least since July 18. The spread has averaged 62.2 cents this year and reached 99.8 cents Sept. 28.
Corn December 2012 $7.32 -.15c (-2.01%)
Bins Bulge With Grain as Low Water Threatens Mississippi Traffic
Bloomberg:By Jeff Plungis - Dec 6, 2012
Already suffering aftershocks from the worst drought in 50 years, farmers are improvising, searching for alternative ways to move and sell corn
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-07/bins-bulge-with-grain-as-low-water-threatens-mississippi-traffic.html
(Dont See the Mississippi Rising Soon)
EdeniQ Super Cellunator DOE economically driving the project
This link is from the fuel workshop june, 2011
page 10 - picture with two of the old cellunators installed at E Energy Adams Llc. - look at the two people behind the Cellunators
to figure out the size of the machinery.
page 18 - here is a project timeline going untill august 2013 (maybe 4 plants are running with "full setup" and one plant with bolt-on cellulosic plant then ??)
page 24 - developement and scaleup covered under DOE project
page 25 - The new Super Cellunator
page 26 - Just check out the logo - DOE as the only economic driver of the project
page 15 - the picture is EdeniQ`s CCM plant, and from that one EdeniQ shal make their x100 scale up Bolt-On plant
http://www.biofuelswiki.org/pub/Home/PresentationIntegratedPretreatmentAndHydrolysisForCellulosicBiofuels/Griffin_Tom.pdf
Biomass cogeneration