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does anyone know anything more about this statement??
An air force commander who conducted a study on the amount of oil deposits in the Spratly group of islands said the area was a “gold mine of untapped hydrocarbon deposits” with an estimated value of $26.3 trillion. Brig. Gen. Eldon Nemenzo, deputy commander of the Philippine Air Force’s 3rd Air Division, said the oil deposits were mostly contained in the Recto Bank, also known as Reed Bank, and the Mischief Reef in the Kalayaan group of islands in the West Philippine Sea known as the Spratly’s.
I find this very hard to believe or beyond exaggerated....
if like they say most of this is at the reed bank<sc72> and we know that the value there is much less than 500 billion< which is still as valuable as americas biggest company>.......where is the other 26 trillion hiding??
we knew that sc72 had gas from a seismic done waaaay back when.................did the spratlys ever have a seismic done as well? where is that number even derived from? 26 trillion is like owning all of europe and a chunk of the US. If someone can tell me the history behind this quote and what and when research was done to come up with this guestimate i would appreciate it..........maybe hes talking 26 trillion pesos??
that should be expected, pxp is a subsidiary of the national philipnine oil and mining company Philex.......they obviously would look after their own and keep the money in the family/country.
We are sitting on enough FEP oil and Gas right now that it shouldnt faze us at all..........it would have been whip cream and a cherry ontop...if we got a contract and then found more Gas......but thats a crapshoot that costs money.....we are ahead of the game here with FEP and should be one of the first or very first to be developed.
this article is exactly why i feel assured that my investment in fecof and indirectly into FEP............is not such a big gamble since its already been done already in Malampaya.....the numbers in Malampaya will be very similar for FEP except that FEP is about twice its size.
the variables will be the price of gas on any given year......the cost for FEP might be more than Malampaya........2.5 bil is what they are saying now..................and of course the china delays which unless we have ww3 then it should be settled within a year.............i think China will be happy getting a settlement agreement in the spratlys where i read as much as 26 trillion exists in deposits.
i wasnt sure if i had the right numbers........
if your number is in fact correct........how is pxp worth 1 billion US? and fep worth only 80 million?
If someone can tell me what percentage of fep do they own i would appreciate it.....i think i saw 60%........a combination of fecofs ownership and philex's.........is that right?
fep owns 70% of sc72 and pxp owns 60% of fep?
Philex Petroleum Corp. (PXP) tumbled 14 percent to 28.50 pesos, the sharpest loss since Sept. 26. The company may delay exploration in the South China Sea because of a territorial dispute between China and the Philippines, Chairman Manuel Pangilinan said. Philex Mining Corp. (PX) , owner of Philex Petroleum, fell 3.5 percent to 25 pesos, the most since Feb. 9.
keep in mind though that this was at 16 only 3 or 4 days ago
i rarely look at this but today i had a peek and its at 48.5 billion phil pesos.....
the currency converter shows 48 billion pesos equals 11 million dollars $US.
how much of a percentage does pxp own in sc72 ?
An air force commander who conducted a study on the amount of oil deposits in the Spratly group of islands said the area was a “gold mine of untapped hydrocarbon deposits” with an estimated value of $26.3 trillion. Brig. Gen. Eldon Nemenzo, deputy commander of the Philippine Air Force’s 3rd Air Division, said the oil deposits were mostly contained in the Recto Bank, also known as Reed Bank, and the Mischief Reef in the Kalayaan group of islands in the West Philippine Sea known as the Spratly’s.
wow.......if only the USA could find a field half that size ourselves it would solve all our debt problems times 3. Except if we do find it, then there will be under the table deals by our puppet politicians to americas largest corporations and the american people would be cheated once again. I think thats what the Arroyo govt tried to do with the chinese corrupt deals.....to sell out her own people.
if they are anywhere close to being actual and correct numbers..............Then this is by Far one of the biggest prizes to be fought over in WAR..........this may very well be a JUSTIFIED flash point for WW3 in the SPRATLYS, and understandable why the CHINESE want this so bad they dont even care about their image going forward.
hhhhmmmmm ....preference, in the bidding process
it makes sense now that pxp went as high as it did, its a govt. subsidiary that will get favoritism with contracts, all the juicy ones.
There also must be a juicy story behind the 2 contracts that were in dispute in the courts......probably someone tried to get squeezed out of a great deal only to be offered thru the "bidding process" to a favorite bidder. I havent found out if those contracts / areas that are being contested are near the reed bank too....does anyone know?
Fep.l is crashing again as that simply isnt a fluid market with open guidelines for just anyone to buy and sell in the open market.........the AIM market that its in has a form of double taxation in it from what i read......and you pay lesser capital gains tax the longer you hold it....year to year.
I feel that they will entertain chinese companies for show and to hold them to the ropes as we go forward with the reed bank......but at the end it will be shell again who will expertise our project into fruition.
I think the Philipine administration has read "the art of war" by sun tzu and the communist govt.of China just reacts with arrogance and flawed strategy.
BIDS BIDS
Reuters) - The Philippines' Energy department on Friday accepted bids for five oil and natural gas exploration contracts and set another tender in July for three other areas, including two near the Reed Bank in the South China Sea which China claims as its own.
A total of 16 bids were submitted in the Philippines' latest, and biggest, energy contracting round involving 12 exploration blocks. But Energy Undersecretary Jose Layug said seven bids had to be rejected due to incomplete requirements, while five sites did not attract any bidders.
He said 38 companies have been prequalified to bid for a total of 15 sites and most were likely interested mainly in the three areas up for grabs in July.
"There's a lot of potential in the Recto Bank," Layug told reporters, referring to the Reed Bank which the Philippines said is within its territory.
The three areas are located near the Malampaya and Sampaguita natural gas fields off the western Philippine island of Palawan. Sampaguita is in the Reed Bank.
"These three areas are near the northwest Palawan basin and they are the most prospective," he said.
Layug was hopeful the contracts will be awarded within the year despite the escalating tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea.
The Energy department has set a 100-day evaluation of the accepted bids.
The Southeast Asian nation is seeking to boost domestic suppy and lessen dependence on costly fuel imports.
Among the prequalified bidders expected to show up in the July tender are Philex Petroleum Corp, a unit of the Philippines' largest gold and copper producer Philex Mining Corp , and Shell Philippines Exploration B.V.
Shell Philippines, a unit of Royal Dutch Shell Plc, has a 45 percent stake in the Malampaya gas project that fuels three major power plants now producing 2,700 megawatts of electricity for the main Luzon island.
Philex Petroleum owns 65 percent of Forum Energy Plc , the London-listed exploration firm that has a 70 percent interest in the Sampaguita gas discovery.
Forum has said the Sampaguita gas field contains more resources than previously estimated, supporting the case to proceed with its $75 million drilling programme in the area.
China claims ownership of the entire South China Sea, including the Spratlys which is claimed in whole by Taiwan and Vietnam and in part by Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines.
thanks for sharing the story Xyznick.........thats a good way of doing research.....some kind of comparable value.......the same way they price real estate in a free market too.
thats why i always look at malampaya because it literally is their next door neighbor and a great case study for us going forward.......cove energy might have more going for it with more holdings..I really dont know.
I'd rather just focus on the fact that the philipines have received over 4 billion in profits from Malampaya and derive my numbers from that.
You will hardly see me talk about multiples or a future p.e. for this company although there may be a p.e. of 2 or 3 in the future...........Private companies"like the malampaya consortium" are more traded closer to their actual value....maybe a p.e. of 1.3...........So i simply avoid it so i will have a pleasant surprise on my conservative numbers. The worst thing is to hype yourself up about your investments and get carried away or fool yourself by not mentioning the cons or risk of your investment as well.
Good luck to all.
thats very good to know jdpro..... Thats what i think could possibly happen here as well.........that fep might hit a bil in 2 years or less if they arent delayed forever....and that would mean a 1000% comparable percent increase for fecof as well from here on out.....fecof at 50 cents in less then 2 years would be awesome as this company developes in stages.
We might actually see the low 3's again with very very low volume here if it has a quiet period again.........But after looking at the new numbers.......national attention with rumors of a pipeline.....and at least the fact that theyve actually talked to a few partnership deals with majors this time.....i re-evaluated the pros and cons and just added a few more shares here.........I do preach to not chase a stock,,,,but i simply re-assesed based on the new developments,,,as i am comfortable buying it under 5 cents with my new loooooong time frame. I might as well just hold this for my retirement and start focusing now on some shorter term turnaround stocks instead of the time consumption ive spent on constantly looking for updates on this news.
of course theres always the risk they drill and collapse the hole like Nidof or that China goes completely haywire like north Korea.
?
to build the rigs and all it took malampaya roughly 3 to 5 years but they did it in about 3......proudly ahead of schedule as their company's history states....they "produced" at the end of the developement......... so i am a bit confused with what you are saying.........or maybe you are simply using the wrong terminology and possibly confusing yourself.
If it takes another half year before we even drill the first exploratory well....and still get lucky enough to resemble malampayas development stages towards production....well thats 3 1/2 years going to 4........any delays and we could be at the six yr mark like the Prez said.
thats not to say that fep's stock price wont rise with every anticipation and stage in development.
FEP.L could possibly reach a 1 bil market cap in 16 months, in anticipation of a 20 billion bonanza one day 6 or 7 years out.........thats a helluva return there as things line up with more certainty.......or they might collapse......I'm betting on success......
Best advice is always refer back to Malampaya as the best case study for FEP.l minus the chinese threat to understand the stages and growth for FEP......theres lots of history about Malampayas stages and growth history on google........its a fun educating read and i expect history somewhat repeating itself but with tension from China before its all sorted out.
GLTA
i'm bothered that he said six years let alone 10,,,malampaya took like 3 years....but they didnt have the china threat either.
I just added another 70k to my position because i like the forecast.........but these one year estimated and targets of 1 dollar are out of place.......remember this quote,,,,
“We would like to stick to the work program and schedule. We would like to be able to build the resources as soon as possible,” Pangilinan said.
However, delays might occur amid political tensions between the Philippines and China.
The rigs and survey ships are owned by other countries, which prefer not to be involved in any regional dispute, Pangilinan said.
Pangilinan said it takes six to 10 years to develop the area.
no......the 3.50 he meant is the US dollar conversion for fep.l 220 pence is roughly 3.50....200 is 3.22................multiplied by 33 million shares and its a 100 mil market cap, and fecof is comparably worth 25 million.........the difference in percentage jumps is understandable today considering that fecof was actually more expensive than fep.l itself when buying service contract72.......they are coming closer to reflecting similar values as fecof is 25% off its 25mil market cap comparable value to Fep.l
the interesting part now is that if fep jumps another 50% or 50 million in market cap...........fecof should jump much higher as that will add it another 12.5 mil in value comparably...percentage wise thats more like 75%
the wait for surety is coming to an end but the wait to realize the absolute full value of this company is another 5 years minimum......although you might want to sell after 1 year if the profits are closer to a dollar and then diversify into something else....
I did the rough math here........forum is around a 100 million market cap right now
33 million shares multiplied by 2 pounds at 1.62 a pound is roughly 3.22 US dollars which makes it 100 mil
therefore fecofs market cap should reflect 25 million......they are 25% off their mark of comparable valuations but fep is extrememly volatile..........
I do think that in less than 16 months fep should be valued at roughly a billion giving fecof a market cap of 250 million.......roughly 45 cents
very well said.....today was beautiful..at the end of the day less than 80 grand was trading hands..............for an international headline of a worldclass holding i would expect much more.........good news is that when we do get serious volume we will be jumping around the 20's in a few months and higher in december or end of december when they explain the drilling.
different circumstances,,,,,,,,,,, maybe before , it was manipulated to go higher.......either way,,,figure out what you think its worth and hold it til then.,,,,we also have the chinese drooling over this unlike back then.............the chinese should just buy the damn thing in the open market.
malampaya is a great historical comparable
hello cee.....
I wont argue that this is a huge multibagger......
3.50? a share....maybe in 10 years
I like your ROUGH math...its correct in rudimentary terms...
you left out the cons of this investment though...
what are the recoverable numbers? we'll get a better idea after drilling.....Malampaya is still trying to juice out its last drops and 10 years later it is still a guestimate in this business.
what amount does the philipine govt get? I use to think it was 50% but its closer to 60%
what are the taxes associated with this business?? The costs??
and basically whats the profit margin the first 3 to 5 years?
Look Carlos slim took the big risk in aaple when it needed investments and was in the red......and the stock slowly edged up....but it didnt shoot through the roof until investors saw HUGE profit Margins and amazing revenue growth years later when it bore fruit.
If you have a huge timeline for fecof as an investment.........then you might see the 2 or 3 dollar stock in 3 years...........but you may very likely see 60 cents in 1.5 years........the percentage gain of 3 cents to 1.5 bucks dwarfs the percentage gain from a buck 50 to 3.50..........so there will be selling points around there....and rightfully so as people begin to diversify out their huge gains.
if you put this into your 401k or your kids coverdale account......you will likely see its full value reflected in stock price as it earns all that cash or dividend......when it produces every drop into cash. One reason aaple is worth what it is is because of all its cash.
One last thought......do we have to deplete all the gas before getting to the oil?? Use Malampaya as a reference...excellent educational model and precedent for all of us.
Contingent Resources are those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be
potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be
commercially recoverable.
It is recognized that some ambiguity may exist between the definitions of contingent resources and
unproved reserves. This is a reflection of variations in current industry practice. It is recommended that if
the degree of commitment is not such that the accumulation is expected to be developed and placed on
production within a reasonable timeframe, the estimated recoverable volumes for the accumulation be
classified as contingent resources.
Contingent Resources may include, for example, accumulations for which there is currently no viable
market, or where commercial recovery is dependent on the development of new technology, or where
evaluation of the accumulation is still at an early stage.
Undiscovered Petroleum Initially-in-Place
Undiscovered Petroleum-initially-in-place is that quantity of petroleum which is estimated, on a given
date, to be contained in accumulations yet to be discovered. The estimated potentially recoverable
portion of Undiscovered Petroleum-initially-in-place is classified as Prospective Resources, as defined
below.
Prospective Resources
Prospective Resources are those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be
potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations.
but what suprises me is the 440 mmb of oil number seems to have dropped off..........even the gross high number is 416 on the prospective chart. ....the mean/best estimate is 220.....half of that 440..........quite a drop. Just to be fair I wanted to point that out too.
http://www.forumenergyplc.com/documentlibrary/FEP-SeismicInterpretation-240412.pdf
this link above will show the document in its pdf format much better than the copy and paste method which took the graphs out of place and context.
very smart to diversify because you simply just never know for sure...........this could end up like nido's drilling if they are not careful or even by simple chance.
at .032 though with fep and pxp shooting up......its more tempting than ever.
they actually did the numbers for us explaining FEP's 70% of sampaguita....which gave them a best guess 6.?tcf estimate......more than twice malampaya and somewhat close to 3 times malampaya......of course the drilling will paint a better picture and better estimates.
I never heard the philipino president talk about a pipeline before so they are very very excited with new opportunities and strategies here.
so anyway..getting back to fecof.........fecof can be said to owning 25 % of that 6.something tcf......lets call it 1.5 tcf...which is more than half of what a very profitable...in 4.28 BILLIONS $u.s$ for both the philipines govt and a somewhat similar number for the company itself.., malampaya field produced in 10 years.
this is a 401k stock,.,,,,not a daytrade......I remember people daytrading apple from 80 to 100 in 3 weeks and they were so happy........only to miss a 500% return in less than 3 years.
http://business.inquirer.net/40561/gov%E2%80%99t-gets-1-1-b-from-malampaya-gas-project
http://www.metalsnews.com/Metals+News/IntellAsia/IntellAsia+Resources/HEADLINE375770/Total+revenue+received+by+Philippine+govt+from+Malampaya+project+reach+P184B.htm
its interesting how this all came out.........
looks like atok-big shot off its mouth earlier than expected at the shareholders meeting and let the cat out of the bag.....2 days later you have the forced anouncement.
Kudos to me for guessing 4.7 tcf.............although i do hope thats the minimum and not the maximum...............the average between the low and high is 10 tcf....which is 3 times higher than the expected number.
Dont ever underestimate your enemy,,,,,especially when its the sleeping giant..........especially when its communist china......we are far from out of the woods but i am very hopeful. Russia siding with the philipines is a HUGE PLUS and a surprising one.
I would buy fecof here upto .045 cents with confidence
by that comparison to cove fecofs 25% earns them a 500 mil market cap closer to development.......all in theory of course.
I'm taking bets,,,,,,my guess is 4.6 tcf 325m barrels of oil.
expect fep to make all the noise and volume..and pxp as well............ fecof will be a sleeper until major news coverage and cover stories specifically about fecofs undervaluation takes place many months after fep.l's faster rise. But i must say, 3 pennies is still a good entry point considering all variables and very forward looking statements.
i dont think you need to overthink the volume this last week or 2 weeks ago.........
there are people with a million bucks on the side,,,,and putting 25k on a longshot that sounds like it has real potential is no big deal...........same thing with last week...........could be someone selling to pay for his tax bill.........to us 25k might be alot but my own brother has over a mil in the 401k and he reshuffles sometimes.......no big deal.
I could see some trigger points this last week or so that would make that single investor or two make a decision.
this week should be interesting because you have conflicting factors...............the chinese threats AGAIN but directed to the USA this time...............and an anouncement about confirmation and the "interpretation" of the seismic.....if we actually end up higher I believe it would be a strong indicator of a well performing stock in the future since its all about market confidence or not in this stock. If it stays flat it shows Undecided forecasts...and if it actually drops with more than average volume it reflects weak hands and fear of the unknown from the chinese threatening stance.
glta
very good fishing,,,,,,great find xxtsc..............
the anouncement should bring a small pop to 4 pennies or higher for FECOF,,,,,,,and if they anounce 5tcf it should jump to 6 pennies, then settle around 5...........the drilling taking place without China raising hell and commencing wargames....will be the true catalyst in the stock price........successful drilling that is. I dont remember dec 2012 being the drilling date before..............i thought it was originally going to be around july.........oh well....lets just hope for positive anouncements from here on out.
GLTA
you left out the last line in the quote which is very forward looking and encouraging....
The interpretation of the seismic program was completed in April 2012. Formal presentation shall be available within a few days, after proper regulatory clearances have been obtained.
However, Brown said results are quite encouraging. A drilling program is scheduled to begin early December 2012. (JAL)
the only issue is when china made the threat to the US..before or after this article...........and how all parties react going forward........its one big game of chess and even a master chess player will have a hard time with this one.
the first link is quite telling.............an empty threat maybe?.........either way...... does it affect Pagnilian's quote " its been quite so far so we will proceed"..............or " i hope we dont get delayed"...........
these are not the exact quotes but that is the jist of what he said..........loose ,open to interpretation quotes.............but a threat like this from China Again.......could slow us down drastically Again..................and if i'm gonna lose my 25 k investment it might as well be over world war three.
weeks away from superficial news I think.......
mostly 6 months away from solid news,and possibly 2 to 4 years away from Warren Buffet Type solid investment type news.....
nonetheless..............warren buffet didnt have the balls to invest in apple when they rehired STeve Jobs back in 1997 "rather safe then sorry investment style/turtle method".........he shy-ied away from tech companies and likely turnarounds before reporting solid profits...Carlos Slim Shady had the balls and now Slim is the richest in the world......."not counting dictators like kaddafi and the federal reserve banksters of course"......
I'd like to think of fecof as the longshot apple was back in 1997,,,,,,,and steve jobs is personified by the value in the hole......just my opinion
I agree.......if thats the case.........
if its truly a market maker then it wont really be strong hands but nonetheless it should help edge the stock upward once it starts being propelled with worthy news and accomplishment.
I am under the impression that market makers were edging it down all this time on ridiculous volume to shake people out...and had done so mostly unsuccessfull.........and considering the timely nature of this stock they are buying back most of their previous sold positions in strong anticipation of positive news anywhere from weeks to months away..........
if the marketmaker thing is just a rumor...........it could simply be one single investor buying a position worth abouth 30 grand or so..................either way ive done my homework......I think most of us have and this board has really matured from the petty arguments only 6 months ago..........good luck to all.
almost back to back decent volume days.......... someone has accumulated around 20 to 25 grand worth of stock....... in these last days,,,,,,,,,,its o.k. considering its recent history with low volume but i wouldnt jump up and down until we see 2 or 3 million shares traded daily in this market cap of 10 to 14 million or so............basically i'd like to see 500 grand in cash traded daily....which would represent less than 5% of shares currently.......if this new buyer will sit on the shares til further news it will help keep supply low and hopefully the price will edge up.
they wont win the good reputation but they can always win a battle........
I'm just very glad that there is a new litmus test and standoff so sc72 doesnt have to be the bargaining chip anymore.
these standoffs could end up either way..........
they can delay the spratlys issue and sc72 as well..
or it can quicken a resolution
the threat of '88 with dead vietnamese can also repeat itself with philipinos.............but its most unlikely considering chinas effort to work on its image as a global power in cooperation with the rest of the world...........
........the fact that they still buy us treasuries bills in a worthless dollar.......shows signs that they want stability in the world too so they can continue making cheap worthless goods and profit handsomely for it
Kudos to Philipino govt. for continuing its stand up throught its economic zone under unclos.
reply to kentcrek......
just put a decimal point on the volume......thats roughly 700 bucks x 2.2 pennies....so basically 1400 bucks that the Market maker shuffled around today..........chump change......it means nothing.......i also say it means nothing when it shoots up 40% in one day with volume of 100k......because its just the market maker or one seller trying to pay his tax bill............whatever.........thats why i say dont chase this,,,,dont be unreasonable.....buy in small doses.1k dollars at a time and you will get what the market maker is shuffling around..............win win for long term investors......good luck...take the presents in incriments as you add intelligently
its a decent article but i dont see anything new there......nothing other than whats already said or expected of them to do......this is still going to take a looooooong time........ the stock could jump to 5 cents when drilling goes underway.....but not more than that until confirmation of a bigger than anticipated deposit or until we start successful development of sc72
you are correct....thats what I meant to say.... FEP.......when i mention fecof though its everything to do with its holding 25% of FEP.
FEP is still more than 50% owned by Philex through its controlling shares of FECOF....
Bottom line............. if FEP got an offer they are required to inform the public and its shareholders.
i would be fine with that situation but find it most unlikely as fecof is required by law to inform its shareholders at least annually <being that this is a pink sheet> about its decisions.
we<shareholders> will be outvoted as philex owns majority shares/votes......but we are still required to be informed as to decide to sell our own shares in the open market if we dont like the direction the company is taking.
If they buy or sell shares in the company before letting us be informed of these situations, it will be insider trading.
i would agree more with you on this outlook, then wahoosiers outlook...... although i would LOVE to see things speed up...........and advice for Patience with this company can also need to nowhere.....it seems we dont really have a choice either way.
they did say that they have NO OFFERS yet......and there has been no change in that..................doing it themselves for the first two wells also seems to be one of last option rather than just by choice............its a huge gamble/80 mil investment that if it pays off can be what legendary stock picks are made of........and if not, just a high risk loss.
Geopolitically things May be in our favor.Obama today wants to continue sanctions in Iran....especially with them helping Syria too.......the world drillers will have to play catch-up and start drilling new areas asap..........africa and the south china sea seem best bets...........it wouldnt hurt to drill in the USA too but Obama is not smart enough for that.
just my opinions.........good luck to all and PATIENCE?
http://mb50.wordpress.com/tag/forum-energy-plc/
2 days ago release...but more of the same story really
also,,,,,,,,why the additional symbol in the markets?
http://momentummagazine.com/forum-energy-plc-foeyf-grey-market-reactivated-symbol/