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Thanks a lot. i am a physician, i understand the company AVNR and PBA and their magic drug but not these damn confusing sec filings, warrents, etc. your answer was very comprehensive , appreciate it buddy.
thanks for the reply, but i still dont understand why did they sold . If they would expect big news which will move the stock up, why would they sell , that i dont understand
Anybody Know? what does this clarus sell mean. is it just profit taking or something else. i dont know much about this. Answer would be appreciated.
i would imagine its profit booking. but if they thought it will double from here in short term , why would they sell right now. i dont understand this! And yes i am still true believer in AVNR. Just trying to solve the puzzle.
Prudent, i agree, its way , way , way undervalued. all longs hang on for teens in near future, IMO
you were right on the spot. i wanted to buy but got busy with work and could not get the benefit damn it! you are the man. thanks for your great insight.
thanks appreciate it
thanks buddy
i also hope so oregon
good DD. i dont know WTF is going on and why are they selling
avnr UP 7 % PM at the volume of 250 000.
avnr UP 7 % PM at the volume of 250 000.
yES I AGREE
yES IT WILL. THERE IS NO WAY IT SHOULD BE AT THESES LEVEL!
AVNR, some number crunching.
i spend two hours and did some reserch on number of PBA patient.
Below is the info.
1. MS patients: Total of nearly 800,000 patients in us europe and canada. 10 % MS patients get PBA. i.e. 80000 patients
2. ALS: neraly 60000 als patients in us europe and canada. prevalance 49% , so pba occcurs in neraly 29000
3. stroke , the biggie: nearly 16-17 million patients in usa europe and canada. every year new case neraly 1.6 million and remember no. are increasing. 25 % suffer from PBA that is neraly 4 miilion. out of those 4 million nearly 25 % have signigicant symptoms of PBA , that is one million.
remember these are not my no. these are real from national stroke society.
4.parkinasons disease: neraly 1.5 million is usa, canada and europe. 7% of patient has PBA, that is neraly 100000.
5. traumatic brain injury. : nearly 3.5 million every year in usa europe and canada. multiply 3.5 x 10 yrs. that is 35 million. say for 50 % die , so that is nearly 18 million. 5 % patient suffer from PBA that is neraly 900000.
so lets calculate: 80000 + 29000+ 1 MILLION+ 100000 + 900000 = 2.1 MILLION. COMPANY(AVNR) HAS Stated 2 million number before.
i did two hours of reserach and came with these. remeber i tried to be as conservative as possible in my calculations. These number i got from national stoke socitey, CDC and wiki.
this market is simply huge.
now multiply no. of patients with cost . that is 2.1 million x 4000 us $ . that is 8.2 billions! yes guys you hear it right . Now lets think that AVNR will be able to get only half of that market, that brings us to 4.1 billion. Lets say margin is 35 % that is neraly 1.5 billions. lets reduce 35 % tax out of that , that brings us near 900-950 millions per year . that is correct 900 -950 million per year in profit. lets assume for skeptics AVNR will earn only half of that . that will be say 450 million.
so Ladis and Gentalman 450 million per year of profit only not sales. And this number i came up with my extremly conservative estimates.
forward PE of 12 so i.e 450x12/100 = 54 $ . now for skeptics i say AVNR earns only one third of this this brings us to 18 $. which i think is minimum. i mean really minimum. forget about dilution guys this stock rocks. I am long and will be long what ever happens in short term, long term this is the minimum price this stock should trade. if one considers better outcome this should trade at nearly 35 -40 $. Now i understand what tim (BANKDRAFT4u was saying. he also came up with 35 $.
Guys seriourly , i think this is a life time opportunity.
AVNR ROCKS.
all the material in my post is with best of my knowledge and are my opinions. every individual should use there own judgement before making decision.
i spend two hours and did some reserch on number of PBA patient.
Below is the info.
1. MS patients: Total of nearly 800,000 patients in us europe and canada. 10 % MS patients get PBA. i.e. 80000 patients
2. ALS: neraly 60000 als patients in us europe and canada. prevalance 49% , so pba occcurs in neraly 29000
3. stroke , the biggie: nearly 16-17 million patients in usa europe and canada. every year new case neraly 1.6 million and remember no. are increasing. 25 % suffer from PBA that is neraly 4 miilion. out of those 4 million nearly 25 % have signigicant symptoms of PBA , that is one million.
remember these are not my no. these are real from national stroke society.
4.parkinasons disease: neraly 1.5 million is usa, canada and europe. 7% of patient has PBA, that is neraly 100000.
5. traumatic brain injury. : nearly 3.5 million every year in usa europe and canada. multiply 3.5 x 10 yrs. that is 35 million. say for 50 % die , so that is nearly 18 million. 5 % patient suffer from PBA that is neraly 900000.
so lets calculate: 80000 + 29000+ 1 MILLION+ 100000 + 900000 = 2.1 MILLION. COMPANY(AVNR) HAS Stated 2 million number before.
i did two hours of reserach and came with these. remeber i tried to be as conservative as possible in my calculations. These number i got from national stoke socitey, CDC and wiki.
this market is simply huge.
now multiply no. of patients with cost . that is 2.1 million x 4000 us $ . that is 8.2 billions! yes guys you hear it right . Now lets think that AVNR will be able to get only half of that market, that brings us to 4.1 billion. Lets say margin is 35 % that is neraly 1.5 billions. lets reduce 35 % tax out of that , that brings us near 900-950 millions per year . that is correct 900 -950 million per year in profit. lets assume for skeptics AVNR will earn only half of that . that will be say 450 million.
so Ladis and Gentalman 450 million per year of profit only not sales. And this number i came up with my extremly conservative estimates.
forward PE of 12 so i.e 450x12/100 = 54 $ . now for skeptics i say AVNR earns only one third of this this brings us to 18 $. which i think is minimum. i mean really minimum. forget about dilution guys this stock rocks. I am long and will be long what ever happens in short term, long term this is the minimum price this stock should trade. if one considers better outcome this should trade at nearly 35 -40 $. Now i understand what tim (BANKDRAFT4u was saying. he also came up with 35 $.
Guys seriourly , i think this is a life time opportunity.
AVNR ROCKS.
all the material in my post is with best of my knowledge and are my opinions. every individual should use there own judgement before making decision.
thanks tim
agree dakota
Backdraft4u, i think this company is worth more than 10 bucks a share at this point if you look forward looking events.
hope is start to make climb soon.
LONG AVNR, Fully loaded.
i understand the volume will decrease. but as dragon pointed out, as soon as company announces good europe partnership or buyout, both of which have very high possibility, i think price will shoot up again , may be more than 100 %. right now revenue is zero and hence price , is< 5. if revenue is zero why not price is zero? I thought stock market is forward looking mechanism. especially with a small biotech comopany like avnr , with a block buster drug recently approved, price should be much higher than it is now. i dont know you better know that.
One thing is simple and clear, the price of this company is kept artificially low so they can make way down and make way up at the cost of individual investor like us.
i totally agree with dragon and unfortunately not agree with you at all with this. you may be true , i may be wrong. just my opinion. we will know pretty soon in next 2-3 month. Than we will talk more about it.
Yes Dakota, it seems AVNR is on top of PBA. Any big pharmas know that. did you observed, big fish norvartis was main sponsor of the program. Avnr was just the co sponsor. i think that mean big pharmas know that pba is unmet medical need and there is big untapped market. know body know for sure anything, but from info , i gathered , it seems it should be win win for AVNR and its shares.
You are welcome
Great PBA video sponsored by novartis. must see for any body still interested in avnr, which i think still have room to climb.
here is link
http://www.pbainfo.org/patient/resources/videos
Great PBA video sponsored by novartis. must see for any body still interested in avnr, which i think still have room to climb.
here is link
http://www.pbainfo.org/patient/resources/videos
Dakota option: great thoughts. will be watching closly. 10000 avnr long .
Adam Ferustein, jim cramer, favus all are bull shit. i dont even read his article. they are the most untrustworthy and enemy of retail investor. unfortunately, many believe them
i am looking for 5.04 , o it breaks it, it should go much higher , i think
yes it is going to present in two different medical meetings. one in rehablibatiobn and physical therapy and other some kind of neurology
Gileon, agree with that, i had same question
that is correct. that guy AF is the worst guy for retail investor like us.. actually i have same opinion for cramer.
AVNR up 5.11% @ 4.73
we dont need to give explanation to you, just cover your short buddy
Biorunner, great article. thanks a lot. things like this make this great board with people like you
great charting
Hsrrp or what ever you are, One advise, cover your a.. and your shorts, or else you will loose your shirt pant and everything.. run.....
ya agree, big game of big people
Two good things , i observed today.
it went down to the 4.21 and came back above 4.50 in the morning. wne down to the 4.42 just before close , came back up at 4.50.
Migh be possible MM are slowly letting it go. just my guess. any thoughts!
Excellent point buddy. very good point. with this point , i am more firm than before to hold AVNR
Biorunner , you are right it seems, MMs win all the time, i dont understand , what the regulators are doing.
YES , BUT I AM ALL IN AVNR, UNTILL I GET GOOD PRICE, I AN NOT UNLOADING MY BOAT