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Speculators coming in this week prior to the court hearing on next Monday. I would suspect some serious negotiations will be going on over the up coming weekend. Government will not want to be found guilty or admit wrong doing. It is the most likely play in order to save face. One thing is for certain, the conservatorship is ending. The how and when are the questions left to answer. Release, restore, and move on.
Happy thanksgiving fnma peps. We have a lot to be thankful for. Our stock is up over 900% and release from conservatorship is imminent. They can not keep us here forever.
I have had two brokers call me this week. Wanted to know if they could help me get into something else. I told them I had most of my trading account in FNMA and they wanted to flip out of that and take profits. Move to another hot stock. I found that suspicious. Anyone else getting those phone calls? I thought it strange because I have never gotten these calls before and have not been trading. Honestly, if you look at funds holding this stock...some of us here has as much as the mutual funds. Its probably a tough place to be if you are trying to buy without running up the price. FNMA Dividends forever.
The hardest part of this whole equation was summed up by Barney Frank. How do we let these "vultures buy something for 10 cents on the dollar and make huge profits from it?" Getting square with the voter gonna be tough after a hard fought court battle. Barney you can call me a vulture any day.
Blue, Thanks for the heads up on ACGX. Can you tell me what has happened to the profit in 2013. It looks off pace from previous years. Was capital used to purchase equipment etc? Also another thing that concerns me is that the company has stated it wants to give a million dollars in charity. Thats pie in the sky thinking for a company that has not given the shareholder a dividend. Also, does the company own any land or physical property or do they rent/lease? These are things I look at prior to investing. Has anyone done any DD through register of deeds to see who holds the Deeds to the properties? Also, if renting...how much capital goes towards renting? I guess in a nutshell has anyone confirmed that the company is not paying inflated rent to hide profits?
These are questions everyone should ask prior to investing in a pinksheets.
Blue I know you are the DD king. Let me know what you have on this. Again, thanks for the heads up. Im always looking for that one diamond in pinksheet land that is for real. Just have not found that many worth investing in. Also, has this stock been through any promotions or paid for advertising?
Regards,
401k
Minorities have the most to loose with the removal of government subsidized mortgages. Hopefully, Mel will protect FNMA for minorities and low income workers who otherwise could not afford a home. I really feel that if you strip away all the politics, its the right thing to do for the taxpayer, home owner, and shareholder. Maybe we have been looking at this from the wrong direction. Maybe what needs to happen is a increase in BK credit risk. Suppose the length of time a default stayed with you was 14 years instead of 7. Also, increase the % down payment. Minimally 15% down to purchase. Add skin from the borrower, not the lender. All my humble opinion for the advancement of FNMA.
I would say a hedge fund added one to many zeros to the buy order and eat through alot of shares. MM was caught off guard. Hence a spike to over 8 bucks. Notice these hedge funds are buying over a month period. They do not want to pressure the PPS upward. They want to buy at the lowest price possible. Again, it would not take much to set the woods on fire here. Look forward to seeing how the board evolves as the PPS goes north. Long and strong FNMA.
Cant wait til the weak hands sell and move on. I suspect someone or some fund picked up around 10 million shares yesterday. Float is being eroded ever so slowly.
When the float is gone to longs...they will walk the price up on low volume.
Goal, low volume, higher highs. Thats when you know we have arrived at the party. Im thinking this will precede any news of release. All my humble opinion.
I think we all can agree that 50 billion was a "low ball offer" for 4 trillion in assets. Im glad the proposal was declined. However, two things happened. With this offer, the company now has real value. Congressmen can stop saying the company is worthless. Clearly, it is worth alot. Secondly, at court his attorneys can say that he made a good faith offer that was declined. We are just chipping away at the excuses not to release.
Government has warrants which it can convert to commons. However, it would have to raise the debt ceiling 4 Trillion dollars to convert these warrants. Thats not gonna happen.
I dont think many get it. 10% of the float has been removed over the past couple weeks. Ack, removed it. Thats a big deal. Who else is quietly removing float. Perma Watson? Buffett? Ichan? Someone is filling up the tank. Also, the market has came up to the point its harder to find value plays. FNMA has alot to offer for those big players willing to take a risk.
Goal: Lower volume, higher highs.
Funny how hard those guys was working when the hedge funds was buying. Hmmmmmmmmmmm?
I think Clay may be off on this call. I see the spinning top. Its clear to everyone looking. I know a spinning top is somewhat a precursor to a pullback. However, when you look at the daily we see a hard daily retrace down. Then a sharp V correction to the upside. The sell off is being absorbed quickly by buyers. Anyhow, My thoughts are more of the same until something changes. News has been really good of late. IMO earnings alone should have done more than we seen of late. Im long, so im just more of a spectator than anything.
FNMA up 1194% YTD.
Number of shares outstanding...
Anyone considered all the volume we have had this week? A large % of the float has been traded. If this was mostly hedge funds, they are likely to hold for some time. I suspect that once weak hands shake out, its going to be lower volume on higher highs. This is what we are looking for on the big leg up. Lower volume, higher highs. This is a sign of lack of supply driving demand. It will happen at some point.
Ill quote the Governor of Montana in the Movie "shooter". "There are only so many seats at the table Gunnie. Either your in or your out".
So...how much trading float is available now? Im thinking around a half a billion shares. Thats not alot of money for a 5 trillion dollar company.
I only wish I had a couple billion. Berk, Ack...gonna be the new gurus of my generation. Im happy for them.
Buffett likes to buy them when they are on the operating table. He has said this many times. I would say we are in the recovery room. Buffett is already in, if he is at all. He will not say a word until the deal is done. I remember when he purchased CSX for a few billion. Quiet as a mouse. FNMA will be no different.
The best thing they can do is release and remain a GSE. Tell all commons that if we have another meltdown in the future...your toast. Thats really what should have happened but did not.
Letting FNMA become a private company is a National Security Risk. Could you imagine if a foreign country took control of this company? Say China? Dont tell me this is not an issue they are rolling over in their heads.
I think Berk reached out to alot of folks for help on this. Its a big fish, he will need some help if he is make this happen. I think the concern now is getting commons to vote with him. Honestly, we need someone to represent us. I dont trust DeMarco to be fair to the shareholder or the taxpayer for that matter. I concede that 20% is still a big number and would make my portfolio look really nice. I just dont want to leave any $ on the table. We have held this thing for almost a year. Took a lot of risk buying when everyone was preaching it was dead. We should not be ran off from the poker table because someone buys the pot. Thats my take.
Funny how all that profit taking was met with buyers. Maybe a deal gets approved this weekend for shareholders on record.
Deal done this weekend?
Bottomline, with hedge funds rolling in the free tradeable shares disappear. I suspect run, then less spikes going into next year.
Ten bucks tops eoy....imo
If I remember correctly...if gov did convert warrants and left commons alone book value was around 25? That is basically the same deal berk is offering. Why is the pps so slow to move? We have an offer on the table.
Berk dont know what he does not know. How can he make an offer with out knowing what he does not know? The answer is, a low ball offer. Pennies on the dollar. That is the answer. He dont know, what he does not know. He owns alot of shares. He is simply being a modern day pirate. I own alot of shares. I think liquidation is off the table. The company has value. We have a conservatorship in place. The commons must be awarded their company back. Why take a 80% reduction in value? I say let the courts play out.
I say let the lawsuits play out. I think the commons will do better with the lawsuits. 20% is nothing. Why would the government not give the current share holders the same deal? 17 billion is nothing.
It is illegal for the FHFA to sell any part or whole of the company. The conservatorship must be unwound. Then if the Shareholders vote and agree, parts can be sold. The mission is to restore, not dissect and sell.
Boys, read between the lines. Bruce owns a large % of AIG. AIG insures mortgages. He does not want to compete with the Government on insuring mortgages. Simple, logic. I would do the same thing.
I personally will be glad when those that are invested are down to their core position. I think alot of folks loaded up and have been selling off some of their investment as it runs up. Thats the only thing that could be holding this back from running more than a dollar a day. I guess their is still alot of shares sloshing around that has no permanent owner. A divy announcement would cure that quick or an offer on PPS from a private equity firm. The problem is now we own a stock that is a multi billion dollar investment. Not alot of folks have 100 billion setting around to invest. 4 trillion in capital, is alot of mula.
Biggest news yet and the board is quiet. We could double today. Easy. Now, we have one more certainty. We are not orphans. Let the offers begin, cant wait til foreign capital starts making offers. Bidding war! This will force the Government to release and remain a GSE. They dont want to loose control over a strategic national asset. Homeland security et al.
I hope all the flippers sold positions yesterday. Good luck boys.
I wonder if BAC is buying FMCC stock ahead of any settlement? Is that legal?
Volume was higher on Freddie today...I noticed.
Where we meeting?
Thats the problem with the OTC. Lots of folks apply the logic that everything on the OTC is a pump and dump. This stock...right, wrong..or indifferent...is a blue chip trapped in the body of a pinksheet board. Nuts. Apparently, the powers that be did not want to pay the extra cost to retain itself on the NYSE. Actually, Im glad they did not. Otherwise, I would not be able to purchase a blue chip for two bucks a share. Regardless, of how this all turns out, Im glad to have gotten to know you and others on the board. I enjoy getting to read your thoughts, share in your dreams and carry on for a just cause of home ownership. I consider many of you part of my extended family and enjoy very much our daily conversations. FNMA dont tread on her.
US bond holders to announce profit sweep on Federal Government
Foreign countries holding US debt will announce a profit swept starting in Jan. 2014. All Revenues and profits generated by the US Government will be sweep into a International Fund and distributed to Bond holders on record. This announcement comes at a time when the US Government confirms that profit sweeps are legal and binding if the bond holder agrees to the terms of the profit sweep. This sweep will be much like the sweep that is on going by the FHFA with private corporations Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Although the US is a sovereign country it became financially unsustainable during the 2007 downturn and sought help from other countries. Unfortunately, the US government will not be allowed to retain any revenues and will be unable to ever pay off its debt. That said, we have reached a point of quasi indentured servitude nationally. In business news, Twitter continues to roil the markets and the OTC markets continue to be manipulated. Silly when you apply it to any other situation isn't it?
May your beard grown long and gray before that day occurs.
The government purchased warrants on AIG. They converted them to sale around the time they were 28 dollars a share. They made a small profit on selling the shares. The FNMA warrants are different. They are tied to the budget ceiling. Heard that term this year? If they convert the warrants they will have to raise the budget ceiling by 4 Trillion dollars. Thats not gonna happen so, the warrants are safely tucked away in a dysfunctional governments imagination. I honestly think we are talking apples and oranges when comparing AIG and the GSEs. That said, the new LLC does directly compete with AIG on the insurance side. Time will tell...Its all an educated guess at best.
With Two-thirds congress they can amend the constitution. So, effectively they could release or dismantle by amendment or the highest law of the land. Thats a stretch, but thats why I included them.
The bylaws read that Demarco and Congress has the ability to end C-ship. Demarco can do it own his own, but he does not have the spine to do it. He had rather wait for ques from those that pay his salary. Also, if he releases them, he effectively fires himself. No need for his position after release. He is in a tight spot. Im sure he has a house payment and a beach house mortgage.