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You should study the conversion math given the size of the spspa and the current market cap. $1 is generous and more than they would need to give considering the spspa will be taking a haircut in the process.
Look at how those lawsuits have fared so far. It has been a disaster. What is left that has a chance only fights for JPS. Maybe you should study up. Good luck.
I am poorer now than when I started this trade. The market is up since then. 2014. Life happens.
I have been living with it since 2014 and I would have been better off doing basically anything differently. That said, for preferreds only (not common), now is an incredibly good time to be in this trade long term.
The grass has been greener on the other side
Quoting scripture will not protect common from being diluted. JPS have anti dilution protection. That is the main difference here. Common can and I expect will be diluted so that they do not have any windfall. Best case scenario is capped at $1.
You are right we are on the same team. The only way JPS are not worth par are if common get $0. So I hope commons get at least $0.00001. That way I see face value. So we are on the same side. I hope your shares are not worthless but realistically the security on these shares is much less than their current price making them worth less.
Keep posting it. Ackman is a clown show on the common shares here since 2021 deal that continued to pay nws pik that destroyed commons in the also pending restructuring that mnuchin set up.
You ready to get diluted? Shares capped at $1 best outcome or diluted with impunity and worth less than current price? I think you get capped at $1 or so myself
Holding the bag like a pro. Not a super full bag either. Common shareholders thinking their shares are worth more than $1 are in for disappointment
Give me a diluted or worth less or capped at $1 max outcome. Yay.
What SPS being paid in kind did was killed the common. The real question at this point is if the common will be capped or nearly wiped out. Regarding the commons, I think they will be capped, not wiped out. Maybe $1.
Yeah. Nothing has materially changed or come up that matters that i can talk about. Arkham on seekingalpha has been making comments that are 100% on the mark
Long read but wont change the outcome. Commons capped at $1 in this restructuring. Get yourself a better security
Did ypu read the part of calabria book where it says spspa conversion is the only legal way forward
His last gse update said six months. That is well before the next election. This one says 2023 in passing just a general update with 1 minute of gse chat.
This all jives with the Hindes timeframe.
congrats. good for you. it's april. we are getting into the zone of opportunity for when stuff should start happening for admin reform.. still waiting though for personnel.
i have lost money in this trade, yes, on a mark to market basis.
the rest of what you allege about me is untrue, ad hominum attacks.
you cannot stick to the facts here of the capital structure of these two companies.
all you ever do is insult me --- and i'm trying to help you understand capital structure in a restructuring.. i'm throwing you a life preserver and you're not taking it and we are 100 miles from shore and bro... lol you're insulting me from the water like a crazy person.
enjoy. as far as i'm concerned my attempt to help you for now is going to rest easy.. i gave it a shot but all you did was insult me..
we are april now. this is 11-12 months from when hindes talked to the white house official who said 12-18 months..
so.. here we go
if you were leveraged in your common shares that would be very unwise because they have no security. leverage is only recommended when you have assets to back that leverage that produce a return that exceeds the cost of the leverage. in this case some of the preferreds return is 20x right now whereas common is basically worthless.
i would not recommend buying common using leverage. but preferred on the other hand still make sense to do so --- all my opinion of course.
and it seems pretty obvious you don't understand debt or leverage, and think that it is evil or somehow misconstrues things..
you might not be aware that fannie and freddie borrow money? they borrow a lot of money.
if borrowing money is of concern maybe you should investigate why they are borrowing money and how possibly on earth your shares could be at risk in that scenario and maybe it will lead you to understanding capital structure a bit better because they borrowed equity capital from the US Treasury in the form of SPSPA and that will dilute your equity stake to smithereens.
Way to continue to ignore the capital structure here and instead go for an ad hominum attack.
I do not insult you. I insult your concept of financial upside in a equity security that has no security because of its place in a capital structure that is essentially 99%+ dilutable the way it currently is structured and according to the majority stakeholder — apparently it is illegal to not majorly dilute away YOUR interests.
I would like to see you develop an understanding about how a restructuring works where the spspa liq preference is more than the npv of discounted cash flows to the company.
The common shares you own are a horrible investment strategy— one that only a fool could stand behind and post about incessantly for years before getting wiped like a castle made of sand on the beach would be wiped away by a hurricane.
$290. Is that estimate high enough to be acceptable by all of the jokers on this board?
I would give a $10,000 estimate with a 0% probability— but it is still a valid estimate
99%+ the commons are worth less than $1 at most. It is a sad tragic reality
Failing to understand spspa restructuring mechanics. If i was a teacher I would give you an F
Commons have no security
You are wrong. I suggest you consider the facts in light of being wrong
He definitely is more clued in. He did investors unite. He stopped the complete government takeover. He did litigation fighting for books and records. He has been behind other key initiatives. He has been a champion for the cause and talks with a lot of key people. He is worth listening to. Cheers. Its april now.
Tomato potato. I dont know order of spspa conversion and warrant exercise. I just know common have no security in face of that wombo combo
Yes i expect the govt to convert its equity position to common and then exercise the warrants on top of it. Commons are uninvestible.
he mostly owns pfd at capwealth. the viewers of his video are intended to be his client base -- which would own pfd because that is what he owns.. mostly. if not entirely
Reminder capwealth mosly own jps so maybe this should be posted on the fnmas board not the fnma board since it applies to the shares he owns
I hear it was a nothing burger
April is next month. 12-18 months starts next week. I think we still have some time yet
are you still adding 10k shares per month?
you need to learn how to read beyond the context cues that suit your narrative. good luck.
you seem clueless on your fearless leader ackman's positioning here.
fyi, this is a tiny miniscule position for him.
I think the biden admin is close to acting just need to get situated
Yes. I did and do. Hope that clears things up. Cheers.
If there is someone out there who buys commons that does not understand capital structure but is capable of learning about it that is why im here. Everyone here who owns commons does not understand the capital structure
Yep. Basically commons here are going to realize this year that they never owned much of anything and their shares are essentially infinitely dilutable
Wow you are figuring it out. Yes. You calculate $1b for existing commons across what 2b existing common shares whats that? Fifty cents a share. Bravo
Well done. I wish i was you. Shucks.
the spspa is the senior preferred stock purchase agreement
every $1 of earnings increases the liquidation preference of the spspa, which is owned by the government right now even though that $1 stays with the companies. this has been the practice since 2019.
when the companies are restructured so that they can raise fresh 3rd party capital, the spspa will be amended so that it no longer takes credit for 100% of the gses earnings.. and i expect that the liquidation preference will be converted to common and the warrants exercised based on the pending litigation and statements made by treasury in mark calabria's book shelter from the storm.
the common have no security and are arguably worth less than $0.40 in such a scenario, but at this point it is not impossible that the government throws common shareholders some sort of bone for a valuation to help facilitate the equity offerings. $1 is the ceiling in my opinion.
jps, however, are money good as they cannot be killed in this restructuring by dilution like commons can.