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Footster... that's the RUB about today, no matter how much the sellers, profit takers, and Shorts attempt to knock it down, da-boyz always get to hand-off those shares they accumulated "to support the bid" at the end of the day!?
401k hand-off days will cause most Shorts to take up bridge and gardening and never return to da-Boyz game as ALL Indicators, Charts, Technicals, Fibs & Lies are Null & Void!?
Prices will Grind Up today and likely end at or near the highs, then after the OE ALL will come Crashing down like a Fred-Flinstone, or was that Barney, BedRock smashing BALL!?
Good trades,
nm
Yes, it's like the "Barrons" ariticles that would come out Saturday would move stocks Monday morning one way or the other depending on their bias and "PRE-Positioning" before the PUBLIC new?
ONLY it's Better, it's LIVE, on CABLE and After-Hours Markets are still OPEN, and most importantly, APPARENTLY IT"S LEGAL!?
Oh Yeah, dats right, he's Spitzers BUDDY, LOL!?
True... also, we must consider the shortened work weeks as facilities scale back to 5 day work weekd and overtime dries up pulling the blue collars net income down?
Also... 50k jobs reported where created by da-GOVERNMENT, HELLO, is this some kinda PONZI scheme in as you hire your CROONIE friends for 100k/yr jobs and BOOST the "wage increase" report to counter 129k service jobs for 20k/yr, WHATDAHELLISGOING on anymore!?
Is it ALL smoke-n-mirrors, does anything require integrity anymore, apparently NOT!? By 2012, the next 4-1/2 year low, when the S&P500 is 750, we'll look back and think, WHAT WAS I THINKING thinking that those Government numbers meant ANYTHING, LOL!?
Good day ALL!
If you did get a -18% discount then I supect it will be double that in two months(-36% discount), since we're only halfway to the final destination bottom between 15Apr/10May?
That'd be a good place to double oncs position?
Should be dramatically lower, but da-boyz will take-r where they need to regardless?
Foot-ster, you caught me, I want a RAMP up into the CLOSE, learned it form Glen-O, LOL!?
Dan... they've been dropping it into the close the last couple days and GAP-ing up in da-morning, hence they'll likely fool Bears & Bulls alike and ramp it into the close for the GAP-Down in da-morning?
nm
Correction, 43.00 first stop, then 42.80 which should provide good support and I agree with Foot that maybe a close exactly at the strike price of 43.00?
This is text book to pull the most money from both sides, Buls & Bears, and then they run it up or dn depnding on the most bets, sorta like the horse track?
Take it up to 43.20 and hold take options bets, then move it to the ohter side, 42.80, and finish collecting bets, re-peat over and over again?
Maxed out for the day, next target 43.00, then 42.80 but expect strong support at 42.280?
Huhh, down 4% 1000 times. NOT, there has been about a dozen -4% down days?
Dan... now dats what I be talkin-bout, post dem gains, addd to ones resereves and live to play another day with a skoosh more then one started the day, nice going!?
Btw.. it really is easy to get in to a position, it's the getting out that can foil even the greatest layed plans!?
good trades,
nm
Dan... VERY prudent move before tomorrow's numbers could GAP down $-1.00 in the morning and leave everyone in Shock-n-AWE!?
Glen-o, you're likely gonna be right but a day early as there was NO WAY da-boyz was gonna let prices SINK inot Firday's jobs numbers!?
If the let prices get down to low and the numbers came out dismal then the bottom would drop out, this way we can drop precipitously and still quality for back-testing the lows?
That said, don't you DARE double up on those short positions unless they are APRIL positions since this a corrective wave2 and we have more business on the dwonside?
Good trades,
nm
Could be bu prices are likely confined between 42.00 and 43.50 for the balance of this OE period, hence we're likely to post a lower OE close on 16Mar?
Maybe between 42.25 and 42.75?
Gleno-O, if we got to .25 bove 43.00, then we'll likely get to -.25 below, 42.75, hence up is relative?
Two... "Text Book" corrective wave2 of Five down, may even get up to 43.50 but I'd be a net seller above 43.50 as wave3 thru wave5 down are likely to tage 39.47 before it's complete?
That said, we'll likely form a "W" bottom between now and 16Mar which would suggest a move back down to test the lows, 42.06 on the Q's, between today's high and 13/14Mar?
Now go forth and prosper!
nm
Might see 43.96 in Jul Aug, NOT likely before we see 39.47 though?
Good trades,
nm
Dan... I have another take on it, before 1987 da-boyz could NOT buy for their OWN account, but today they can?
This allows them to Buy, expecially on days no-one wants to do anything, share and unlowd them when ever it suits them, hence thye we're unloading shares they picked up down at sub 42.50 Monday?
Basically its irrelevant if their are buyers and/or sellers, what counts is if da-boyz are supporting (accumulating), or denying access (distributing), at any given S/R line?
and dats about alls I gots-ta say about dat for now,
nm
I agree, there is NO way that da-boyz did all this work to get-r UP and will now let-r go down!?
We should expect an upward bias into 16Mar?
Glen-O... OPEX on futures tomorrow, that's probably going to skew things as da-boy manipulate into THrusday's close?
It's obvious with volume there is NO-ONE making a committment Long or Short and that puts da-boyz in charge - AGAIN!
I'm saying you've got one year max to Get Short into March 2012 but regardless, when we hit 1550, SHORT with Reckless abandon?
Wow, how rue is that, it truly is at a nice YTD Bottom and heading up to 560, NOT, or half way to a YTD bottom, likely, and heading to 260!?
Place your bets, Up, Dn, or BOTH, I pick BOTH, just I'll take the Dn first!?
You are correct Sir, but it appears someone is about to put a CAP on it, reads - "Dead Money Working", LOL!?
CAN you say GOO[UUR]G[LE] boys and girls, I know da-Market can!?
Hey, who pulled da-Plug and is dat water GREEN going donw da-drain?
Foot-ster, A perspective of Dismal proportions!
Will we portend da-Future- AGAIN!? Re-peat and hang out to dry, or "Tumble" dry if you prefer, LOL!
In the 3rd and 4th Qtr 2003 we we're runing at 60% capacity and had posted a few four day weeks. By Mar04 our bookings trippled and our backlog was 120% of capacity and until Jun04 we thouhgt it was some sort of joke until raw materials starting to become scarce and prices we're escalting every three months? We went from 4/5 days a week to 24/7 (we always run around the clock). Then came Frgt Surcharges, scrap surcharges, can't get this as it's it short supply Surcahrges? This continued for ALl of 2004 and even 2005 and most of 2006!
In the 3rd and 4th Qtr 2006 (three years later), we staring seeing bookings dry up and go net negative against shipments, thsi kept up into Dec06 but we thought it was inventory adjustments, seasonal, and it would pickup 1st Qtr07, the 1st Qtr is always our best Qtr, NOT!?
Today we're back to 60% of capacity, bookings continue to track under shipments and we've been on 5 days since the first week of February and now have the 4/5 day scenario staring us in the eyes again!?
The problem is that the 1st QTR dat will not come into REAL ADJUSTED FOCUS until we're into April and by then we'll be finding new YTD lows?
Just something for all to ponder as the worst thing of all, work weeks are shortening and the COST of LIVING is STAYING UP or going HIGHER, NOT a good sign of things to come?
Now the BAD news, we are front runners in downturns and lag in Upturns and we we're seeing this same thing Mar99 and within a Year, it was Turn-Out da-Lights!?
Will the market find a YTD bottom Apr/May, sure, will it make it to 1550 before Mar08, maybe, but the error factor it that it's already begun!?
Best regards,
nm
Shore, here's a confirming perspective?
In the 3rd and 4th Qtr 2003 we we're runing at 60% capacity and had posted a few four day weeks. By Mar04 our bookings trippled and our backlog was 120% of capacity and until Jun04 we thouhgt it was some sort of joke until raw materials starting to become scarce and prices we're escalting every three months? We went from 4/5 days a week to 24/7 (we always run around the clock). Then came Frgt Surcharges, scrap surcharges, can't get this as it's it short supply Surcahrges? This continued for ALl of 2004 and even 2005 and most of 2006!
In the 3rd and 4th Qtr 2006 (three years later), we staring seeing bookings dry up and go net negative against shipments, thsi kept up into Dec06 but we thought it was inventory adjustments, seasonal, and it would pickup 1st Qtr07, the 1st Qtr is always our best Qtr, NOT!?
Today we're back to 60% of capacity, bookings continue to track under shipments and we've been on 5 days since the first week of February and now have the 4/5 day scenario staring us in the eyes again!?
The problem is that the 1st QTR dat will not come into REAL ADJUSTED FOCUS until we're into April and by then we'll be finding new YTD lows?
Just something for all to ponder as the worst thing of all, work weeks are shortening and the COST of LIVING is STAYING UP or going HIGHER, NOT a good sign of things to come?
Now the BAD news, we are front runners in downturns and lag in Upturns and we we're seeing this same thing Mar99 and within a Year, it was Turn-Out da-Lights!?
Will the market find a YTD bottom Apr/May, sure, will it make it to 1550 before Mar08, maybe, but the error factor it that it's already begun!?
Best regards,
nm
Maybe, BUT, if we just went from and 2002 Bottom to a 2007 TOP, then the 100% retrace would be right about 2012?
Will we make it to 1550 (Jan/Mar08), maybe, but I think 750 (Oct12), is more likley to happen?
Good trades,
nm
Hmmm, I'm thinking she'll say Up & Dn, preferrably VERY FAST TOO, )
That outta make someone HAPPY )
It would seem fitting since US markets Just SHOT up 1.5/2.5%?
Expect higher prices until the S&P500 tags 1427, this is the YTD OE Pivot, then we turn down for a trip to new lows?
From what I can discern, da-boyz are desperately trying to get prices back up to where thye got DUP-d by that computer malfunction on last Tuesday? This would target 12400 on the DOW and when da-boyz want somthing they usually get it?
Even Cramer was pulling ALL the STOPS, pun intended, to get people to think this was da-BOTTOM, yeah right, jsut trying to help his croonies - AGAIN!?
MAJOR SELL signal at DOW 12400!?
GOod trades,
nm
It should bottom around 68 +/- sometime between 15Apr/15May?
They've shot there wad and competition is the loweing of margins is painting a picture of lower prices to reset?
Good trades,
nm
Maybe but not likely, won't see 44.00 plus until Jul/Aug?
I'd be mortgaging da-House and shorting anything above 43.77?
Good trades.
nm
Maybe, maybe not?
Since this is a corrective bounce and we are only 1/3 of the way to the bottom, I suspect AAPL plays ketchup (red pun inteded), and moves down accordingly into the April bottom?
Let's all mark this post for future reference, shall we?
Good trades,
nm
This is gonna get UGLY, I'm expecting ALL indices to go NEGATIVE before today is over, OUCH!?
Da-Boyz having been selling calls with reckless abandon!?
Are we ready to RUMBLE!?
Two... something is going to happen between now and Thursday Futures OPEX and the bias is down (da-boyz are positioning by holding the Q's at 42.50 and taking bets both above and below)?
Glen-O... patience, we be heading down to close that GAP and likely post a new low before the ST bottom is in?
Wow... at $600/container, that's 4.2 million per run, less $-3.2 million for fuel, $1.0m in profits, hmmm, too bad it cost $3 billion to build, still 3.0% profit each run on investment?
Glen-O, lower high posted, 42.72, lower low is next, 41.94?
Are da-boyz GOOD or What, took out short stops yesterday and will be taking out long stops next?
Sweeping it up here Boss, sweeping it down dare Boss, COOL!?
nm
B... I never watch TRIN, to my own peril, keep us posted, nm?
TWO... me thoughts exaclty, maybe 41.94 +/- to sweep stops and entice Shorts, then we get da-real deal, nm?
Yes, totally agree, the ST trend is down and it could easily take a couple months to complete the capitulation waves and post the lows of the year?
Currently 4casting 39.47 for the Q's by 30Apr with 43.77/44.43 as the second wave bounce high before we contniue to post waves 3 thru 5 down to 39.47?
I play both sides most of the time and will be buying back the Mar44 puts I sold yesterday towards the close?
good trades,
nm
I don't think so, FREE-FALL ALERT!
New intrday LOW pending, this dip will NOT be bought and we close at the lows of the day?