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dest_golf, answer this for the board:
I have just reviewed your every post going back to November, 2005. There was not a single one, not one, positive post from you about ERHC Energy. For the most part you post infrequently, although in the last month or so you have really accelerated your posting frequency. I find it interesting that the last 13 posts from you, all 13, were attacks against oilphant.
Please explain your posting behavior for nearly a year, especially the most recent ramp up to discredit oilphant. It seems to me that the more oilphant leaks info, whether right or wrong, the more you step it up a notch to undermine his credibility.
If any of what oilphant posts proves accurate it will show that he is on the side of investors. What team do you play for? A year without a positive post, and as oilphant posts more often, you get more agitated. I really find the whole situation entertaining, if not very intriguing.
Thanks in advance for answering, I'm running low on posts!
crazy...
All things being equal, ERHE sitting on rights in the JDZ that are comparable to Addax would be valued similarly.
All things aren't equal.
Addax has rigs, drillship leases, and the overhead of many employees, offices, etc. Addax value is the value of it's proven reserves, less the liabilities.
ERHE does not have these liabilities. Anyone looking to value ERHE will have to consider its value as a pure oil play. When you buy ERHE, it's almost like buying the underlying commodity directly. That in itself will value ERHE much, much higher than a company like Addax with equal proven reserves.
If there's 2B bbls in each of ERHE's blocks, I would hope that it would reach a market cap of $10B.
Back to the wait and see approach.
my bad, no post intended!! LOL
I was showing Google Toolbars spellcheck feature to my kid.
LOL! What a way to waste a post!
Best speculative post of the day!!
With the recent articles discussing China and CVX playing buddy-buddy, having a CVX/XOM joint venture buy Addax and Sinopec buy ERHE would give the VAST MAJORITY of blocks 1-4 to CVX/XOM/Sinopec. Let them fight though unitization while we count our money!
Also, yes, I believe the JDA would have to approve such a transaction. Can anyone speculate why they wouldn't?
Agreed, ACH's Addax response was a definite WOW!
I would VERY surprised to see Addax NOT get eaten in the 2007-2008 timeframe, maybe sooner. ERHC on the other hand, I think is poised to wait for full value. I think Offor's first priority is to build a large oilco. Second on that list I believe that he will sell out, for the right price, and that price won't be set until all proven in ERHC's blocks is known, and it will be sold at a premium. His first desire is to build a company. But as the saying goes, ANYTHING is for sale for the right price. If ERHE gets bought out, it's years away.
JMHO.
Also, I found it interesting that Addax is looking for "a rig or two". They aren't very big to be scrambling for two rigs in this market, kinda pricey, unless their pockets are about to get deeper.
Thanks for all your (and others) input today. It's been a good I-Hub ERHE board day!
BB, quick question...
Addax is pumping 100K bbpd and has operator status in a JDZ block, with decent percentages in 2 others.
Why is there market cap only $3.2B
To equate that value to ERHE... it will be $3-5 years before they can claim they are pumping 100K bblpd. Do you think it will take 5 years for ERHE to sport a market cap of $3.2B ?
That's $4.57 per share. I've seen posted, and expect, bigger numbers in a shorter timeframe. I hope anyway!
BB, if you read the latest update again...
they clearly state that they intend to uses the proceeds from JDZ activities to acquire low to medium risk properties.
That doesn't sound like a company willing to sell rights any time soon. Offor has fought the devil for over 6 years. He will make the devil pay dearly for jerking him around, IMO.
FYI on CVX GOM find...
"The range of amount -- from 3 billion to 15 billion (in itself a huge range -- reserves of Exxon Mobil are around 14 billion barrels total) is comprised of no single field of more than 300 million barrels. An entire area of as much as 15 billion barrels with no "giant" over 1 Bn bar oil field is unusual. Oil discoveries tend to cluster with a giant (King) and several queens and even more jacks."
http://www.energybulletin.net/20140.html
Addax mcap is $3.2B USD,
Adding their rights in 2, 3, and 4 in the JDZ to their already producing properties and it seems to me any buyout would be a no brainer for a major that wants a bigger slice of JDZ pie.
If CVX or XOM bought Addax they would be buying operatorship in one block and junior partnerships in the other two. Once the the reserves become proven and the risk is mitigated, the major gobbles up ERHE and suddenly has extremely attractive percentages in 1, 2, 3, and 4.
The majors shareholders would be very happy with that plan if it doubled or tripled the companies proven reserves. Now how do you get a major that doesn't believe ERHC Energy deserves to exist to fork out a fair offer for its proven reserves? That's the $64,000 question. Can or will Nigeria lean on them by threatening to withhold future blocks if they don't play fair?
Exciting stuff to ponder, albeit nerve wracking.
bobwill,
He said he knew as fact that one fund holds shares. He said he had heard of other buying millions, but did not have proof for those. At least that's the way I read it.
Yes, BB, "300-square-mile area"
3-15B bbls in the entire area, not Jack 2. It's the equivalent of someone posting obo-1 found 9-14B bbls, when in fact that is the estimate for the JDZ region.
The Jack 2 trap may be as big as a billion bbls, but I doubt it. CVX hasn't made any clain to reserve numbers from that structure yet.
Interesting presentation oilphant...
"deals mirror are Closer than they Appear.
btw parting with piece of pie doesn't mean they gave it away"
Only two capital letters in the entire post, C and A.
Chevron buying Addax?
"prefer those positions to remain unfilled."
I agree. That would be the most boring job on the face of the planet. ERHE has no operatorship and full carries. A CEO would do nothing but sit around...
he would feel just like us shareholders!
Capital LOL@jdubs, great memory! em
Walldog, that's sweet, like the oil! em
ERHE is a lump of coal under extreme pressure...
Think back to your chemistry class, what happens to carbon under extreme heat and pressure?
Diamonds.
That's the best analogy I could come up with, and I think it fits this scenario well... or should I say well(s)? LOL!
Rail_Fan, how would one get that information?
I just tried (albiet briefly) to get net pay and porosity values for AKPO. Neither Google nor Yahoo offered up anything useful.
Thanks.
NY_Minute,
Has it occured to you that some of us are just having a little fun? Do you see a tonne of action surround ERHE that we can talk about that hasn't been beaten to a pulp?
Nope.
So what if oily posts a riddle and a few of us play with it. At least it puts something in front of our eyes. As a source of entertainment that occassionally offers up useful tidbits I-Hub would be pretty boring with no posts at all.
On a day like today and many of late, that is what you would have.
It's clear what oily meant...
"use caution while walking along train tracks."
The only reason caution would be needed is if the train has left the station.
That's what it means... or any of the other guesses! LOL!
I must agree, "use caution walking along the train tracks"
Is pure jibberish... and I usually like oily's posts!
"Maybe we'll all be sayng "Oy Vez!" on 9/22!"
Or "Hallelujah" by Easter? LOL!
The bottom line is that in a world where most investors are use to fast action internet stocks, this "slower than grass grows" oil patch is boring, really friggen boring. At the end of the day this long chain of fortnights will prove that oil is a better play than internet stocks... by far, IMO.
Don't take it personal umbra, you have to admit it *was* funny!
Art, agreed. But you have to admit it is long past due for this company to defend itself and its shareholder, for once.
It's pathetically undervalued and they do nothing. That gets old fairly quick.
amj, I beg to differ. The letter shows...
...that Offer and his chosen PR firm do not intend to promote ERHC Energy any time soon. They don't give a d@mn about the share price and/or ERHC investors.
After this past year it is crystal clear that we don't mean squat and they'll do whatever they please, shareholders be d@mned. All they've done for months is make excuses for why it wasn't their fault ERHE shares aren't fairly valued. They haven't even bothered to release a PR stating the investigations are "without merit", if you were innocent, wouldn't you at least declare your innocense?
I ask you to consider that it is certainly not shareholders fault the share price stinks. Keeney PR has been asked to represent a firm that doesn't want to be promoted. What can they possibly do? So we buy, sell, or wait. Just what they want. No fund will touch shares in any company this unprofessionally managed.
JMHO.
Electick, ho hum is an understatement...
The letter opens saying management wants to update its shareholders with recent activities, then goes on to say they are looking into candidates for management positions.
There wasn't a shred of new information in that fluff. Golly, their CEO quit and their CFO got fired, and they want to make investors who have seen a SHORT TERM 60% drop in share price feel better by saying they are looking for replacements?
Is anyone surprised ERHE is looking for a CEO/CFO? I'm not.
ERHE's lawyers are like a lion on a gazelle, devouring all they can. We had $40M in cash on the last statement. If it's anywhere near $30M or lower in December I'm gone. The longer they screw around the more likely shareholders will get screwed.
kobi, you are absolutely correct.
All this "rights fo rigs" talk seems silly to me. If Block 2 holds 3B bbls, giving up even 1% means we're paying $2B for the rig. At $500K per day we would need to use the rig 4000 days to justify the percentage.
The Gulf of Guinea is an “area of great resources”
Word is getting out.
I find it confusing that some think ERHE would give up any of its percentages to secure a rig. ERHE is the little minnow partnered with 3 larger entities. With full carry why would ERHE give up anything to secure a rig for the operators of its blocks. ERHE doesn't need to give up anything.
This line of thinking makes no sense to me.
Maybe a deal where ERHE gives Anadarko some small percentage of its rights to sublet the rig and Sinopec says thank you by granting ERHE cost payback exemption, I don't know.
My gut say ERHE isn't giving up rights and a rig will come when it comes. The minnow isn't going to be in the drivers seat of securing a rig.
Tuneman
There are 42 gallons in a barrel.
There are 7.48 gallons in a cubic foot.
That means each barrel is 5.6 cubic feet.
15B barrels equates to 84 billion cubic feet.
If you assume 200 feet net pay, you would need a square structure 20,493 by 20,493 feet, or 3.88 miles on a side. If you factor in the porosity of the oil sands the structure would be 5-10 times larger. That's just over 16 miles on a side.
If you reread CVX's PR, they said there could be between 3 and 15 billion barrels of oil in the area consisting of 300 square miles. They did not say they determined a 15B barrel find with one well. Seismic indicates a lot of ultra deep structure and now that CVX has proven it can be brought to production they are saying there could be as much as 15B barrels in the region.
Umbra, very eloquently put. eom
"One day we will have our love affair - of that I've little doubt."
Does that translate into , "where were you in 1948, you're there again" in oilphant speak?
Well said db, thanks. eom
oilphant, please clarify...
"11bbl is low." Certainly you meant 11B bbl?
http://mineralmanagers.com/glossary.html
I find that incredibly unrealistic, not from one well. Perhaps what you heard in the winds was 11B bbl expected in block one? That makes more sense. Still all conjecture until they drill more.
Thanks for your posts. They light the place up when it's dark.
It depends on what they say.
If they say they found a billion barrel reserve it would fall within expectations and ERHE may rise a bit on the encouraging news.
If they say they found a 10 billion barrel monster and that the entire JDZ is an interconnected Ghawar sized field of elephants all bets are off.
I expect the former, but would tolerate the latter if I must.
Hopefully our CEO and/or Mr. Keeney can share...
information about past buyout offers. Someone posted that Offor turned down a $5 bid. That sits firmly in my rumor inbox until validated.
If it's true it would be great info to share with starving shareholders.
LOL@Dan Keeney!...
He's pegged ACH, and he also has linked my real name and alias (although he indicated I was "tryto" instead of "tryoty", close enough). I like the proactive nature of Dan making this effort. The guy is mapping aliai to names... probably to put an end to the board manipulation.
It seems the price of communicating with Dan Keeney is revealing your true identity. I LIKE THAT!
Thanks ach, let's hope it contains something other than more of the same. Surely SOMETHING has happened in the last month.
I'm not getting my hopes up too high though. ERHE is at the mercy of its operating partners, the DOJ, and the SEC. Getting the feds off them is important. Having our partners come online with rig infor through 2007 will move ERHE in the right direction.
I don't expect buyin/out information. That would be PR'd and a SEC filing would be required. Best bet is we get a thank you for being patient and not much else.
Sidewinder, puleeze...
Now is not the time for ERHE to promote itself. What can they do, go out and tell everyone what a great investment they are?
The first thing anyone looking at investing in ERHE would see is a DOJ investigation, an SEC investigation, and no drilling rigs available for a year or more.
If you were new to ERHE would you honestly buy right now? Of course not.
I'm sorry, sometimes it is what it is.
10987654321, well said...
There are many, too many, green investors here that think they can make a fortune without doing any work. It doesn't work that way.
Anyone that pressed for a confirmation of many of oilphants posts found at least some success. Oilphant will be missed, but in the end the results will be the same.
Tuneman
"Posted by: nyan445
In reply to: rambus who wrote msg# 37310 Date:3/28/2006 12:35:54 PM
Post #of 72025
Oil: $66. MacKenzie Confirms Obo-1 1 bn barrels. That is huge IMHO."
I need to retract a previous post...
Current trends show that value of proven undeveloped reserves is $12 per barrel. I suggested that with full carries and no overhead that value sould be closer to $20 in ERHE's case.
I now think that was a little optimistic.
The no overhead still applies, but the full carries won't affect the proven undeveloped reserve value since ERHE is still responsible for costs via giving up cost oil until costs are paid.
If proven undeveloped reserves are worth $12 per barrel then $14 per barrel is probably more accurate for ERHE to factor in no overhead.
I apologize if I was misleading earlier.