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Wow, Volume just DOUBLED in a matter of minutes, someone had dare finger on da-Sell button!?
Serious DOWN wave triggered, new 4cast-r shows this?
Date Open High Low Close
23-May 47.19 47.37 46.53 46.72
We know that 46.71 is a VERY important number as its the OE Pivot and it appears we'll violate taht on a closing basis Thursday?
nm
Looks like we've got a genuine Discount Wave on the agenda and we should see a bounce 46.71 before continue on down da-Road!?
Footster... Agree, get dat NEW CLOSING High posted and the NEW intraday High will follow?
You are correct SIR, CLOSING price TRUMPS all else, and closing price along with PM (percent movement), raises and/or lowers probable outcomes?
Tweak-ster... NOT sure indicators count for much anymore, hence, it's UP until we breach 47.05, nm?
Sorry Nirvana, I had GLENO on da-post syndrome as he tends to vent his disposition quite often, NOT A PROBLEM GLENO, and I apologize!
Gleno... if we fill da-GAP at 47.05 da Party is OVER as that would be a breach of the Pattern and trigger a reconfiguration thereof, LOL!?
I MUST admit that it's TRULY remarkable the LOW Volume and UP go Prices? This suggest that sellers are Caught in da-Head_Lights and can't PULL da-Trigger to SELL!?
That said, it's UP until it ain't and da-boyz will decide regardless?
regards,
nm
Q's consolidating at the R1, 47.29, and building strength as the minutes tick bye?
Shorts still holding in disbelief but they about to get shown to da-door, LOL!?
This is truly amazing as EVERYON on da-Planet waits as da-boyz and ONLY da-Boyz decide the next direction?
Kinda explains why so many BIG players have just abandoned Charts, Tecnos, Fibs and Lies and just watch da-boyz?
regards,
nm
The R1, 47.29, have been breached, next target the R2, 47.88?
51.38 10.00%
50.80 8.75%
50.21 7.50%
49.63 6.25% R5
49.05 5.00% R4
48.46 3.75% R3
47.88 2.50% R2
47.29 1.25% R1
46.71 0.00% OE Pivot
46.13 -1.25%
45.54 -2.50%
44.96 -3.75%
44.37 -5.00%
43.79 -6.25%
43.21 -7.50%
42.62 -8.75%
42.04 -10.00%
Gonna be a LONG Tough day for Bears today if 47.09 becomes the LOD!?
Sorry Bears but today is "Get SHORTY" day and da-boyz ain't just whistling Dixie!?
nm
Holy Freakin White Candles Batman!
We are poised to print Three white Soldiers and when complete there will be neary a Bear to be found!?
Sorry Bears but no pain, no gain, but I suspect da-Bulls will be celebrating and miss out on the sneak attack that will follow?
We're net buyers this morning and will be until 48.00 is tagged! We'll be net sellers once 48.46 is tagged and we'll go ALL IN on da-Short side when prices fall below 47.88 on a closing basis after said move up?
For your viewing pleasure here's what da-OEPM 4cast-r has for today?
Date Open High Low Close
18-May 46.48 46.71 46.38 46.71
21-May 46.74 47.24 46.67 47.01
22-May 47.04 47.28 46.87 47.05
4cast
23-May 47.16 48.15 47.07 48.14
Notice how price does NOT fill da-GAP at 47.05, hmmm, wonder if da-boyz actually foolow da-4cast-r and leave a telling GAP behind, very interesting!?
Btw... if we tag 48.15 today that will be a 3.17% wkly move and worthy of our attention since a move of meaning was braodcast by lower volatility recently? It's always about which way such a move will be that intrigues such market pundits like me-self!?
Regards ALL,
nm
Gleno... I don't see us making it that high and would be a net seller at that level?
AJ,
I have a program that let's me plug in similar patterns form days gone buy and it repeats the pattern with curretn prices, kinda COOL!?
nm
Additiaonl Comments:
The OEPM is the Option Expiration Percent Movement, its proprietary and uses the PM between OE periods?
The current JunOE ends on 15Jun and started on 21May? The average PM for the last couple years has been 6.3%? I've listed the PM for 2006 below.
2006 Close High Low Spread PM
YTD 41.58 44.86 35.54 9.32 22.4%
Jan-06 41.25 43.31 40.16 3.15 7.6%
Feb-06 41.21 42.39 40.26 2.13 5.2%
Mar-06 41.45 42.01 40.19 1.82 4.4%
Apr-06 42.00 43.05 40.82 2.23 5.4%
May-06 39.35 42.49 38.75 3.74 8.9%
Jun-06 38.34 40.00 37.16 2.84 7.2%
Jul-06 35.70 39.14 35.54 3.60 9.4%
Aug-06 38.42 38.98 36.23 2.75 7.7%
Sep-06 40.11 40.46 37.92 2.54 6.6%
Oct-06 42.43 42.62 39.52 3.10 7.7%
Nov-06 44.39 44.48 41.61 2.87 6.8%
Dec-06 44.43 44.86 43.26 1.60 3.6%
Avg. 40.76 41.98 39.29 2.70 6.5%
JunOE starting Pivot, 46.71, close on 18May
Possible PM or S/R lines for this period listed below, these S/R lines stay in tact for the entire duration of this OE period?
51.38 10.00%
50.80 8.75%
50.21 7.50%
49.63 6.25% R5
49.05 5.00% R4
48.46 3.75% R3
47.88 2.50% R2
47.29 1.25% R1
46.71 0.00% 46.70 OE Pivot
46.13 -1.25% S1
45.54 -2.50% S2
44.96 -3.75% S3
44.37 -5.00% S4
43.79 -6.25% S5
43.21 -7.50%
42.62 -8.75%
42.04 -10.00%
Hi K,
Yeah, I hear ya, even I can't believe what is being 4cast (especially since where smack dab in da-middle of a downturn), but it is what it is and until price proves otherwise the manipulation upwards will continue?
Best regards,
nm
Here's the 4cast thru 30Jun as of this morning?
Date Open High Low Close
18-May 46.48 46.71 46.38 46.71
21-May 46.74 47.24 46.67 47.01
4cast as of 10:30am!?
22-May 47.04 47.11 46.34 46.54
23-May 46.18 46.42 45.90 46.40
24-May 46.44 46.67 46.21 46.23
25-May 46.30 46.33 45.72 45.90
29-May 45.91 46.20 45.42 45.42
30-May 45.42 45.62 45.37 45.61
31-May 45.70 45.92 45.60 45.85
1-Jun 45.71 45.90 45.55 45.62
4-Jun 45.72 46.14 45.62 45.67
5-Jun 45.98 46.62 44.99 45.75
6-Jun 45.81 46.78 45.66 46.62
7-Jun 46.48 46.50 46.00 46.40
8-Jun 46.40 46.68 46.17 46.43
11-Jun 46.56 46.86 46.16 46.66
12-Jun 46.51 47.25 46.36 47.21
13-Jun 47.31 47.87 47.24 47.70
14-Jun 47.63 47.98 47.58 47.94
15-Jun 47.96 48.04 47.75 47.90
18-Jun 47.71 47.92 47.43 47.52
19-Jun 47.39 47.44 46.50 46.64
20-Jun 46.53 46.85 46.46 46.73
21-Jun 46.78 46.80 46.04 46.23
22-Jun 46.17 46.53 46.03 46.11
25-Jun 46.42 46.89 46.31 46.87
26-Jun 46.87 47.05 46.11 46.27
27-Jun 46.35 46.38 45.80 46.10
28-Jun 45.97 46.46 45.92 46.14
29-Jun 46.22 46.33 46.05 46.16
Good morning Nirvana,
Yes, this recent price action portends higher prices with a Year low now firmly in place at 42.06 (05Mar), a mid price of 46.53 (playing out now), and a high 4cast of 50.99 (20Dec)?
Based on recent price action we can now discern that the YTD OE Pivot, 44.43, is now da-Floor for the remainder of the year?
Key price levels for the remainder of the year?
Support
46.38/46.65
45.39/45.54
44.40/44.43 (serious support level)
Resistance
47.36/47.77 (we'll likely turn lower from here ST)
48.35/48.87
49.34/49.98
There really is nothing the Bears can do to stop da-Boyz from cleaning their clock and this year appears to be no differant?
We'll be net sellers today and buyers as prices dip to 46.38 and 45.54?
Best regards,
nm
AJ... You da-Man, I have an entirely differant way of getting there but we have the same prognostications?
Here's the OEPM 4cast-r spitting out meaningful assimulations based on current pattern configurations?
Currently 4cast to tag 1669 by years end after the retracement to 1463 in August, hmmm, can da-Boyz pull it off or NOT?
nm
Date Open High Low Close
18-May 1513 1523 1513 1523
21-May 1523 1530 1523 1525
22-May 1525 1530 1518 1520
23-May 1520 1526 1512 1523
24-May 1523 1527 1521 1521
25-May 1521 1524 1513 1516
29-May 1515 1516 1507 1508
30-May 1508 1515 1507 1514
31-May 1514 1526 1514 1525
1-Jun 1525 1525 1520 1523
4-Jun 1523 1525 1514 1516
5-Jun 1515 1528 1505 1514
6-Jun 1514 1519 1505 1516
7-Jun 1516 1516 1502 1507
8-Jun 1506 1512 1500 1510
11-Jun 1510 1513 1502 1509
12-Jun 1505 1513 1502 1512
13-Jun 1512 1525 1512 1522
14-Jun 1522 1530 1520 1529
15-Jun 1529 1532 1527 1530
18-Jun 1530 1534 1527 1529
19-Jun 1529 1531 1522 1524
20-Jun 1524 1530 1523 1529
21-Jun 1529 1530 1518 1521
22-Jun 1521 1530 1519 1526
25-Jun 1526 1539 1526 1539
26-Jun 1539 1540 1520 1522
27-Jun 1522 1525 1514 1520
28-Jun 1520 1525 1516 1518
29-Jun 1518 1527 1518 1527
2-Jul 1527 1541 1523 1537
3-Jul 1537 1546 1537 1545
5-Jul 1545 1549 1544 1548
6-Jul 1548 1549 1543 1546
9-Jul 1546 1550 1543 1547
10-Jul 1547 1553 1546 1550
11-Jul 1550 1550 1542 1548
12-Jul 1548 1552 1532 1537
13-Jul 1537 1538 1530 1532
16-Jul 1532 1544 1532 1543
17-Jul 1543 1558 1543 1555
18-Jul 1555 1558 1553 1557
19-Jul 1557 1557 1551 1556
20-Jul 1555 1561 1549 1560
23-Jul 1560 1560 1552 1558
24-Jul 1557 1562 1550 1556
25-Jul 1556 1556 1548 1551
26-Jul 1551 1557 1545 1549
27-Jul 1549 1549 1485 1495
30-Jul 1495 1513 1493 1503
31-Jul 1503 1506 1476 1500
1-Aug 1500 1500 1482 1482
2-Aug 1482 1487 1468 1468
3-Aug 1468 1494 1468 1491
6-Aug 1491 1497 1486 1488
7-Aug 1487 1505 1487 1498
8-Aug 1498 1507 1493 1499
9-Aug 1499 1506 1494 1503
10-Aug 1503 1503 1473 1473
13-Aug 1472 1483 1458 1482
14-Aug 1482 1492 1480 1488
15-Aug 1488 1493 1479 1482
16-Aug 1482 1500 1482 1498
Huhh, there's a OE every Month but this ones the Qtr ending OE and prices are manipulated for a specific price level come 07Jun and 15Jun!?
The influence of options CONTORL ALL price actions PERIOD!
I get a big kick outta chart, techno, fibs and lies players as they try to hold their tool to to light and discern something meaningful?
It's ALL about da-OE people and the bets that da-Boyz take in over the next couple weeks will dictate the price action 01Jun thru 15Jun?
Btw... the Jun44 strike has over a 1/2 million puts still Open, is it coincidence that the Q's are climbing in the opposite direction of that strike, NOT!?
Since we know the Q's will NOT move more than 7.5% during this OE period we also know that once the Q's tag 48.00 that 44.00 is a mathematical improbability!? In other words, da-boyz are NOT going to give those put holders ANY chance to use them as leverage to corner a position between now and 15Jun?
This game can be easy if you know da-rules and that da-Boyz make da-rules?
Good night,
nm
Oh Sure, da-boyz just had to close-r ABOVE 47.00, whatever!?
Serious UP day Tuesday and when its over there may NOT be a Bear left standing!?
Date Open High Low Close
18-May 46.48 46.71 46.38 46.71
21-May 46.74 47.24 46.67 47.01
4cast
22-May 47.12 48.11 47.03 48.10
Q's nearly tagged teh R1, 47.29, and we expect a move to the R2, 47.88, tomorrow?
Me condolences Bears, I feel your PAIN!
That said, da-boyz have been playing Dis-Game for a VERY long time and with Triple witching OpEx stuff going on this OE period you can rest assured da-Bulls are goona feel some pain this OE also!?
Regards,
nm
Close enough for OEPM work, looks like we have a Serious UP day Tuesday but we'll close under 47.00 today?
Date Open High Low Close
18-May 46.48 46.71 46.38 46.71
21-May 46.74 47.24 46.67 46.93
4cast
22-May 47.04 48.03 46.95 48.02
Let's see if da-BOYZ can SQUEEZE dem dare nuts who went short last week. LOL?
I gotta tell ya folks, are Deeze Guyz, well Boyz, GOOD or WHAT!?
And there are still folks that contend taht manipulation isn't possible, hmmmm, maybe NOT, LOL!?
Best regards,
nm
Can da-Boyz actually Manipulate prices STILL HIGHER!?
Looks like da-boyz is getting things up for a nice drop but the first three days of this OE period look to be higher? It's GET SHORTY week and I suspect that ALL shorts will be GONE by Wednesday, Friday at the latest?
Today's 4cast looks very doable?
Date Open High Low Close
18-May 46.48 46.71 46.38 46.71
4cast
21-May 46.81 47.22 46.59 46.93
We'll be net buyers below 46.70 and continue to hold until 48.00 is tagged?
OE Stuff
49.05 5.00%
48.58 4.00%
48.11 3.00% (our third and final Up target)
47.64 2.00% (our second target and 4cst for 5/22)
47.18 1.00% (our first target and likely to hit today)
46.71 0.00%
46.24 -1.00%
45.78 -2.00%
45.31 -3.00%
44.84 -4.00%
44.37 -5.00%
Regards,
nm
Gleno... Manipulation has its limits but da-boyz rule and when they need prices to tag a particular line then all charts, technos, Fibs and Lies are irrelevent!
Do NOT castrate yourself for da-workings of da-boyz, instead learn to discern their TRUE intentions and you'll ride their coattails to riches and leave da-Rags behind!
We should see a SERIOUS move up to 48 in the first three days of next week that will launch a correction of meaning thereafter? Amazing how da-boyz KEEP the Q's price in check until AFTER OE!?
Best regards,
nm
Are we There YET, da-TOP dat is?
OE stuff:
Close, 45.40, 20Apr
High, 46.97, 09May
Low, 45.33, 24Apr
Spread, 1.64
PM, 3.6%
YTD Numbers for the OE PM
2007 Close High Low Spread PM
YTD 46.55 46.97 42.03 4.94 11.1%
Jan-07 44.17 45.40 42.52 2.88 6.5%
Feb-07 44.77 44.86 43.29 1.57 3.6%
Mar-07 42.83 45.55 42.06 3.49 7.8%
Apr-07 45.40 45.67 42.95 2.72 6.4%
May-07 46.55 46.97 45.33 1.64 3.6%
Looks like we'll end this OE period with a Low PM in historical terms, only 3.6%? This is typical of ending patterns as we did the same for the FebOE as prices consolidated before a BIG move down beginning on 26Feb or about one week after the FebOE ended
We should not expect much movement Thursday or Friday as da-boyz let option premiums become null and void for May?
Some Wkly PM stuff:
Close, 46.78, 11May
High, 46.88, 14May
Low, 45.91, 16May
Spread, .97
PM, 2.1%
Slightly under the averaage of 2.5% but within expectations given the low OE PM of 3.6%? Of course we could breach 46.88 or violate 45.91 before today is over and still stay between da-lines?
Current lines are 45.75/47.25 and there is ZERO reason to expect prices to play anywhere but between said lines today?
Current OEPM 4cast suggest we close higher today than yesterday but neither a new high or low is on the agenda for today?
Date Open High Low Close
17-May 46.45 46.61 45.93 46.14
We've nearly completed an IMPORTANT ST Top and we should look further downward from these levels?
Btw... I'll be playing golf today, tee time 9:48am and will be back before Monday morning to assess da-Boyz actions for possible footprints of meaning?
Enjoy ALL,
nm
Sure looks like da-boyz wanna close-r around 46.00 tomorrow so I'd not expect price to get to far from 46.00 before next week!?
Gleno... looks like da-boyz are BURNING time and premium on the May options, I don't expect much variance today or tomorrow?
Footster... I think there is merit to that statement and that's what I've been watching to confirm a recession is configuring, the Dollar getting back to 100 would indicate game over?
Are we There YET, da-TOP dat is?
OE stuff:
Close, 45.40, 20Apr
High, 46.97, 09May
Low, 45.33, 24Apr
Spread, 1.64
PM, 3.6%
YTD Numbers for the OE PM
2007 Close High Low Spread PM
YTD 46.55 46.97 42.03 4.94 11.1%
Jan-07 44.17 45.40 42.52 2.88 6.5%
Feb-07 44.77 44.86 43.29 1.57 3.6%
Mar-07 42.83 45.55 42.06 3.49 7.8%
Apr-07 45.40 45.67 42.95 2.72 6.4%
May-07 46.55 46.97 45.33 1.64 3.6%
Looks like we'll end this OE period with a Low PM in historical terms, only 3.6%? This is typical of ending patterns as we did the same for the FebOE as prices consolidated before a BIG move down beginning on 26Feb or about one week after the FebOE ended
We should not expect much movement Thursday or Friday as da-boyz let option premiums become null and void for May?
Some Wkly PM stuff:
Close, 46.78, 11May
High, 46.88, 14May
Low, 45.91, 16May
Spread, .97
PM, 2.1%
Slightly under the averaage of 2.5% but within expectations given the low OE PM of 3.6%? Of course we could breach 46.88 or violate 45.91 before the wk is over and still stay between da-lines?
Current lines are 45.75/47.25 and there is ZERO reason to expect prices to play anywhere but between said lines today and tomorrow?
Current OEPM 4cast suggest we close higher today than yesterday but neither a new high or low is on the agenda for today?
Date Open High Low Close
17-May 46.51 46.81 46.40 46.66
We've nearly completed an IMPORTANT ST Top and we should look further downward from these levels?
Btw... played in a Golf Charity event yesterday and our team came in first place, COOL, but da-Childrens Network was the BIG winner with the money raised!
Now go forth and prosper,
nm
Whatda... da-Boyz DUP-ed da-Bears AGAIN, and it appears we'll play between da-lines, 46.00, 47.15 for the wk which is in line with a 2.5% wkly move?
47.15 x .975 = 45.97
46.00 x 1.025 = 47.15
Here's the 4cast as of 11am?
Date Open High Low Close
11-May 46.24 46.78 46.18 46.78
14-May 46.77 46.88 46.19 46.46
4cast
15-May 46.41 46.70 46.23 46.61
16-May 46.59 46.82 46.40 46.57
Looks like today and tomorrow will be much to do about nuttin when the closing price gets posted?
nm
Footster.... Big is relative, tomorrow seems poised to move lower and violate the 46.00 mark confirming the ST TOP is in?
If this pattern plays out we'll actually post a NEW OE Low instead of the High that was 4cast as recent as this morning? Amazing what a differance a day will make?
Sorry Bulls but your about to take it in da-Rear end of this Up wave?
Date Open High Low Close
11-May 46.24 46.78 46.18 46.78
14-May 46.77 46.88 46.19 46.46
4cast
15-May 46.25 46.40 45.73 45.83
Out first ST Target is the May OE pivot, 45.43, then we look further downward to the Yearly OE Pivot, 44.43? This should provide a nice bounce back to 46.65 by months end then its turn out da-lights for a few months?
We'll be net sellers until we hit 44.60 at which point we'll become net buyers for a bounce to 45.54, then 46.65?
Best regards,
nm
Looking like a BREAK will occur soon and down we'll go to tag 46.30?
Looking poised to drop to 46.30, let's see if da-boyz can get-r DONE!?
Note, a 1.0% daily range wuld allow 46.41, an extension will accept a move to 46.30?
We'd be net buyers at 46.41?
Gleno... do you think da-boyz pifted prices to their current levels to let-em DROP before the infomaous 401k Hand-off 15/16May?
I've written Sooooo much about the power of the OE (Option Expriation), that one should be totally aware of the MOOT-ness of Charts, Technos, Fibs and Lies when da-Boyz and Option profits are at stake!?
It's gonn be darn near IMPOSSIBLE for prices to violate 46.00 this week? If this is true then a 2.5% wkly PM suggest 46.00 as a ST Bottom and 47.15 as a ST Top?
That said, a SERIOUS ST Top is forming and it will yield some Quick and Hefty profits for da-Bears when the Discount Wave is initiated!? BUT, it will be at da-BOYZ choosing and not because of some line, graph or FIb or Lie someone concocked but because da-boyz have successfully positioned ahead of such a drop?
nm
Current pattern suggest the HOD is in at 46.88 and a LOD is now 4cast at 46.30?
Gleno... NOT this wk as da-boyz will likely post a new OE high and not a new low?
OE High, 46.97, 09May
OE Low, 45.33, 24Apr
We are MUCh more likely to make a new High then a Low, hence we'll be buyers below 46.60 today and expect a move up to 45.95 at the very least and maybe an extension to 47.10 today?
nm
There is a Serious ST TOP forming but da-boyz have ZERO interest in allowing prices to fall before this MayOE period ends?
Here's the wkly update:
Close, 11May, 46.78
4cast
High, 18May, 47.40, up 1.3%
Low, 17May, 46.32, dn -1.0%
Range, 1.07, PM, 2.3%
We extrapolate using the average PM of 2.5%?
47.40 x .975 = 46.21 (possible low target)
46.32 x 1.025 = 47.48 (possible high target)
It would seem that 46.95 is the likely ST target for today with an extentsion to 47.10 possible?
We'll be buyers below 46.50 and sellers above 47.25 this week?
OEPM 4cast:
Date Open High Low Close
11-May 46.24 46.78 46.18 46.78
4cast
14-May 46.82 47.13 46.55 46.73
It seems VERY possible that we play between 46.20 and 47.40 for the remainder of this OE period as da-boyz let put and call premiums BURN up as the days go by.
Currently the 4cast Close on 18May appears to be 47.10 +/- .10
Now go forth and prosper accordingly!?
nm
Two... I don't think there are many left to argue about "Controlled" or not, its now a matter of finding ways to extrapolate da-boyz true intentions?
As of this morning it appears their intentions are to BURN time and option premium?
This suggest they stay between da-lines, 45.75 and 47.25?
nm
Double-T, NOT Exactly, Thursday was NOT what da-Bears wanted and da-Bulls should be MOST pleased about current price action!?
There is a Serious ST TOP forming but da-boyz have ZERO interest in allowing prices to fall before this MayOE period ends?
Here's the wkly update:
Close, 04May, 46.63
High, 09May, 46.97, up .7%
Low, 10May, 46.06, dn -1.2%
Range, .90, PM, 1.9%
We extrapolate using the average PM of 2.5%?
46.97 x .975 = 45.79 (possible low target)
46.06 x 1.025 = 47.21 (possible high target)
It would seem that 45.79 is a more likely target today than 47.21, hence we'll be net buyers below 46.00 but we may only get down to 45.87 today?
OEPM 4cast:
Date Open High Low Close
4-May 46.77 46.89 46.42 46.63
7-May 46.65 46.78 46.57 46.63
8-May 46.47 46.77 46.30 46.73
9-May 46.49 46.97 46.46 46.83
10-May 46.67 46.78 46.07 46.19
4cast
11-May 46.16 46.78 45.87 46.66
It seems likely that we play between 45.75 and 47.25 for the remainder of this OE period as da-boyz let put and call premiums BURN up as the days go by.
Currently the 4cast Close on 18May appears to be 47.00 +/- .10
Now go forth and prosper accordingly!?
nm
Indice Futures expire EVERY second Thursday of the Month, Options expire EVERY Third Friday.
you are correct Sir!
Footster... Futures expire tomorrow, 5/10, da-boyz probably will wait until tomorrow to take-r where day wanna go!?