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I am wondering if they are going to ramp it up at the close.
~d
I saw a million dollar sell on the spy go through today at 311 and change.
Shell game.
Ashy, good afternoon. I'm so sorry. Been there, done that.
I have blown up my account so many times I don't want to think about it. I think you were lucky with your first short and jumped right back in.
Someone recently told me that we are most vulnerable after a succssful trade. I am closing out my 1 put (LOL) today and taking the hit.
It is essential to learn good position sizing and loss management, the big ones keep pounding the table with that over and over again.
Best regards,
~d
We are two points away from the last ghost print I mentioned back in March (322).
From here I have a Hurst projection to 3600 or so.
~d
/es on 30 minute creating a bullish Gartley butterfly pattern with a projection to 315.
Hurst very s/t projection to 315/16. Hurst low due in late June/early July may end up being a bump in the road.
~d
I've been pounding the 'not a pandemic' soap box for a long time, but I never said it wasn't an epidemic (it's just that I believe it was planned and created in a lab).
Sorry to hear that your area was hit so hard, and it sounds like you're a very supportive boss.
Here where I am we've had something like 7 deaths in the last three months
I don't know...the quotes are firing off very quickly the way they have been the night before a rally lately. Hedged my June SPY puts with August /es calls just now.
You know, it's actually looking like we might gap up tomorrow.
Stop me before I post again..lol.
Hey, nowwhat, take a look at your beloved kospi. Down day today. Since the end of March has never had more then two down days in a row.
~d
OT: LOL, I love meat. Just don't eat it as a practicing Tibetan Buddhist. I do cheat once in a while, though, so send the rest of the Porterhouse here.
I was edging towards veggietarianism for a long while and what sealed the deal was my Hare Krisna friend saying to me every time she saw me, 'Hey, how are you! Nice to see you! Are you still eating dead murdered animals?'
After a year of her saying that to me, it took.
I hate to say this, but /es is looking mighty perky.
Might start into August calls tomorrow...
Ferda,
Take a look at this, very interesting too. I went on the SPY board and asked if everyone was eating take out during the quarantine:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=156065976
It simply boggles the mind that take out food is outperforming the SPX.
Why aren't you going out to get real food - you know, like vegetables and fresh meat (even though I'm a vegetarian) - and cook? Doesn't anyone cook anymore?
~d
Kali Yuga.~d eom
Can you show it please? Tia ~ d eom
This market is incredibly strong. Typical of what I have heard describes a wave III in Ewave.
Changed my mind....
Wow, interesting. Thank you.~d eom
I just looked at the take out restaurant sector and they all look like that (surpassed the SPX). Was everyone who was quarantined ordering out from Olive Garden?~d
Why?
Thanks, Technitrend, much appreciated.
~d
Ferda, I don't know your level of knowledge but you might want to start with sellling way out of the money credit spreads on CMG, only on expiration days. For instance, selling the 1070 June 5th call and buying the 1075 would currently net you .25, or 25 dollars.
Trading gurus are always talking about risk/reward ratio, i.e., you don't want to invest a lot of money to make only $25, but one of the best traders I ever saw carefully logged away 25 and 35 at a time, one at a time, risking 500 or even 1000 or 1500, every week. He was betting a lot to make a little very safely.
I watched him hedge too, if he even though the trade was going to go against him. This is because a way OTM credit spread can turn into an in the money credit spread very fast. This is even more true with tech stocks. which more very fast.
He always hedged, even if he was buying, not selling, options. It was about protecting his capital.
I don't eat there, but hundreds of people on Yelp say since the new CEO took over it's really gone down in quality.
The first CEO really cared about his product and even said that he didn't approve of GMO foods. 'Coincidentally', there was a subsequent breakout of food poisoning in several of his restaurants. Stock tanks, CEO resigns, new CEO takes over and doesn't mention words like organic and non-GMO and stock recovers to new highs.
Turns out later several scientists found that the strain of food poisoning found in the Chipotle restaurants could only be grown in a lab, it is never found in nature.
So, as an environmentalist, I feel it is my political duty to short this stock, lol.
There's definitely some hand holding going on with the powers that be with this new CEO. He sells over a million shares at a new high? At $1050? During the coronavirus? And the stock doesn't tank?
I want to find out who he hangs with. This kind of thing really makes my blood boil.
Good luck with your decision, Ferda. It's a big one with a stock this pricey.
~d
.
Maybe 296.~d eom
Anyone still thinking we still hit 287 or lower in June/early July? I have revised my expectations to 302 for a correction, chicken that I am.
~d
Can't you buy a put or two at the midmark? I know the spread is high, but try going a few cents over the midmark. However, it is a very expensive bet and I don't want you to lose money because of me.
Usuall I sell OTM credit spreads for those mega buck stocks, and only on expiration days.
But you need margin for that (credit spreads).
I know! And the CEO just sold almost all his shares!!!!
What plan? Do we have a plan?
~d
Good luck, that is a long shot but possible. It needs the general market to turn down help the downdraft.
You might want to roll it up to 1000, if you can.
~d
Ashy,
if you put on a 30 minute chart with price bars or candles, you'll see big long price bars on the decline down on 5/26 before it found support on 5/27. Those kind of big candles most people get all excited about and think price is going to continue in the same direction. They get all excited and call them 3 or 5 black crows or white soldiers in candlestick charting.
The truth is, on an intraday chart particularly, they usually get 'traded out', i.e., price will retrace to test them BEFORE price potentially goes down in the same direction (or if they even do). That is exactly what happened here with CMG.
However, CMG couldn't make it all the way back up to the top of the first huge candle down on it's retracement to 1086, but only made it partway.
That's important.
There was another big price bar on the 30 minute on 6/1 going up at 9:30. That bar looks likely to be traded out and there is also a gap on 6/29 at 1014. Gaps also act as magnets.
The volume is awful here and that works both ways, up and down. There is volume support around 1024 and 1000, plus or minus, and that should act as a magnet too.
Actually, the real volume support is around 900 or so.
AND THE CEO SOLD ALMOST ALL HIS SHARES!
I have no idea what will happen. But I like these odds.
Shorting CMG too. That thing is begging to go down.
~d
Closed s/t puts bought at SPY 311.50 all the way up to 312.89 or so, @ 310.14, still holding on to long term puts (June 19? is it) and will add if we go up.
~d
Ashy, do you have a volumeprofile study on your platform? ToS, right?
I want to teach you something.
~d
Nope.
Might stall it a bit.
~d
This is it, Ashy. Fasten your seat belts. Short @ 1048.
~d
I will use out of the money options if I am confident of a move that may take some time, add to them as my cost declines, and be willing to lose money.
Otherwise that extrinsic value is a killer.
So, when I short CMG - maybe even tomorrow - it will be with a weekly option and with a put with at least a 50 delta. Maybe start with just one contract.
The bottom line is, this range compression will break up or down, and the first move might be a head fake.
I am betting on down, but could be wrong.
~d
The biggest mistake I made, and I still make it, is to use OTM or ATM options day-trading because the price is reasonable. And then it's heart breaking to wait around all day and see price go in my direction and I still lost money because of the hourly theta burn.