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Looks like we're slowly starting to enter the hype period before data release.
More volume, more daily posts on this board, more interest about this on other platforms, etc.
That's over $17 billion in market cap that just disappeared.
Might be a good reference for how much a positive trial could be worth for us.
"Biogen Shares Plunge After Alzheimer’s Drug Setback"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-21/biogen-halts-study-of-alzheimer-s-treatment-as-study-falls-short?srnd=premium-europe
True, but Amazon shares trade for $1700 a pop and Google shares for $1200, yet retail investors are still buying those, right?
If the company is valued at $15 billion then each share fully diluted would be worth about $600.
Assuming you owned no shares, would you buy in at $600 if you knew for a fact the results were positive?
If you want to try to predict the future stock price, here's a quick thought experiment:
Pretend that you own no shares and the results are already out showing the same positive non-memantine 20 dose results as last time with a p value below 0.001.
The results look great.
What is the highest amount you would be willing to pay for a share then?
I intend to hold all my shares through results, so I'm pretty much set until September no matter the price, but again, I can understand why anyone wanting to unload some shares before then would want management to do more.
5 million warrants aren't going to stop billions of dollars from flowing into this company and blowing up the price if the trial is successful, but I agree it could make the run up prior to the announcement a bit more muted.
True. The company has enough cash to last another 2-3 years without more financing, possibly even more if all the warrants and options are exercised.
For me, the low price presents an opportunity to buy more since I'm a long-term holder, but if some investors here are itching for a quick profit then I don't blame them for wanting management to do more for the stock price.
I don't really see the need for a PR until final dosing, but whatever helps you guys sleep better at night I guess lol
"Although this $20 billion peak sales figure may sound ridiculous at first, there are some solid reasons to believe that it's not completely far-fetched. First off, there are presently no disease-modifying treatments available for this devastating neurodegenerative disorder, reflecting the astronomically high failure rate of experimental AD drugs. Second, the incidence rates of AD have been growing by leaps and bounds largely due to an aging global population.
That's why J.P. Morgan's analysts, among others, have suggested that any disease-modifying AD drug that somehow makes it all the way to market would quickly rack up over $10 billion in sales. And without a major competitor to divvy up the market, that figure could balloon to over $20 billion by 2030."
https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/09/19/could-this-alzheimers-disease-drug-really-be-worth.aspx
Maybe they didn't feel like doing a PR this time lol
Both the 10-K and Dr. Alkon in the last podcast said all patients have been enrolled and the trial is finishing end of summer.
Yup. What really impressed me is that more than half of the patients have already completed dosing, so basically we're waiting for those last 45 patients to finish and complete the dataset.
Not much new in the 10-K, but here's the key points I got out of it:
- "As of February 28, 2019, we have signed up 29 clinical sites and have completed patient screening totaling 215. Of the total screened patients, 45 have been randomized and continue to be dosed and 55 have completed dosing. We believe we will have trial data completed in the second half of 2019."
- "As of February 28, 2019, we had approximately $25.5 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable investment securities. We expect that our existing capital resources will be sufficient to support our projected operating requirements over the next 24 to 36 months, including the continuing development of bryostatin, our novel drug targeting the activation of PKC epsilon. Funds are anticipated to be used to complete the current Phase 2 confirmatory study treating moderate to severe Alzheimer's patients, evaluate and potentially support an open label study in Fragile X syndrome and conduct other non-clinical and research activities for our existing and other potential therapeutic products. The balance of the funds will be used for general corporate and working capital purposes."
- There are now 12,922,370 shares outstanding and 24,656,973 shares if fully diluted.
I don't think it's necessary tbh. If these prices last we could band together and buy the company outright lol
Here's a chart where I multiplied daily volume with daily closing prices in order to arrive at an estimation of how much money has been flowing into NTRP shares since Febrary 1, 2017:
https://i.lensdump.com/i/WIzoUD.png
Notice how even the latest KOL call only caused a relatively minor bump in cash flow. To me that shows we still have a very small group of investors that take this company seriously, and that we might have to wait until those results drop before the big money starts coming in.
Didn't hear much new here except that patient enrollment has been completed and data readout is expected at the end of summer.
So either August or beginning of September.
New podcast with Dr. Alkon:
#podcast Dr. Dan Alkon, President CSO #Neurotrope on very promising results in clinical trials with Bryostatin-1 w/patients with advanced #Alzheimersdisease - on the path to attacking progression of #Alzheimers & not just treating symptoms. @Neurotrope1 https://t.co/RUdrRtPK14
— EmpoweredPatient (@KarenJagoda) March 7, 2019
I'd say it's more of a blessing than a curse if you're loading up on as many shares as possible before those results drop
The longer they stay cheap, the more of them you can buy.
Part of me wants to immediately buy more shares at these bargain prices, but then there's that other part that wants to wait and see how much lower it can go lol
Whatever your opinion may be, we'll have undeniably crystal clear results by the end of this year.
Market cap of about $60 billion if we go by the current P/E ratio for the S&P 500, which is 21.40.
Although I doubt BP will let it rise that far before putting up an acquisition offer.
Profits.
I'm sure revenues will be much higher.
For reference, if they can earn $200 per patient each month, and manage to treat just 20% of the 5.8 million Americans suffering from AD today, that would mean yearly profits of almost $2.8 billion.
Thanks. The link is in the ibox so no need to send me anything.
I took a look at it and it seems like the $800/month figure is more of an analyst estimate rather than actual cost.
If they can ramp up production of the synthetic version I'm sure economies of scale will drive the cost of production down and increase margins.
Any research report in particular?
I'm a bit confused over how I could've missed this part after reading all kinds of material.
Bryostatin is projected to cost around 10k per year.
Not that I know of, no.
Based on what the key opinion leaders said in the last call, the last two big shots on goal are Biogen's Aducanumab results due 2020, and their P3 BAN2401 results due 2021, although I doubt that one will succeed considering their lackluster P2 results.
Once those two fail, there's not much else for Big Pharma to do but admit defeat and try a new approach.
I think it's also worth noting that Biogen will probably announce results for their amyloid drug in 2020, and if that trial fails, biotech investors looking to make bank on an AD treatment will have to relocate their money.
P3 would take longer and require us to do another financing at these prices.
With a confirmatory P2 we'll have bulletproof results out this year that can boost the stock price and encourage more investors to exercise their warrants/options and bring in more funds without further diluting the stock.
Not to mention the possibility of more quickly receiving fast-track and breakthrough therapy designation.
While it's true that the placebo effect can be significant, it's not an excuse for bad trial results.
If this thing doesn't beat placebo, you might as well just start feeding sugar pills to AD patients.
Forest Laboratories was acquired for $28 billion when he worked there:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/actavis-completes-forest-laboratories-acquisition-265360391.html
Did our last financing occur at a bad time? Sure, but I doubt any of us could've predicted the bear market that hit us, and as someone else mentioned, we needed the financing before the end of the year in order to not raise any red flags in the 10-K, which could've triggered funds to sell their shares.
The other issue that people seem to have about this guy is his lackluster PR work, but again, is it really a good idea to spend money on PR when we might have a front page worthy results announcement later in the year that'll write headlines by itself?
IMO there aren't really many productive things you can do at this point except do more research, maybe start some more trials and enter into more agreements.
Achieving a statistically significant improvement with only 16 patients is pretty much unheard of in this industry.
Could it fail? Of course it could, but considering that even key opinion leaders in this field have been impressed by the post-hoc results, I'd say we have a very good chance of replicating those positive results with an undeniable statistical power.
Because those results were tainted by patients taking Memantine, which has been shown to block the effects of Bryostatin-1.
Take a look at this press release:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/neurotropes-bryostatin-improves-cognition-in-patients-with-advanced-alzheimers-disease-based-on-further-analysis-of-phase-2-clinical-trial-data-300578025.html
Then read this paper:
https://www.scribd.com/document/394908904/10-3233-JAD-180759
Then check out the links in the ibox and you'll be up to date.
Would you really let your competitor buy the only working AD drug in the world for $20 billion without putting up a higher counter-offer?
I think it could go higher if results are replicated.
Don't get me wrong. I'm well aware that this a multi-billion dollar drug if it works as expected, but if you look at how the market reacted last time and how low the price is today, there's always a possibility that people find another reason to doubt the new results.
Like I've said before, the science is solid, but you never know what the average layman might think of it.
All kinds of things could happen. The company could run out of cash. A competitor might come up with a drug that works better and is cheaper. They might lose their exclusive license to use Bryostatin-1 for neurodegenerative disorders.
Realistically speaking though? I'd say it really just depends on what the trial results look like.
We know that this is just a confirmatory trial, so the most likely scenario is that they repeat the results seen in the last non-memantine population on a bigger scale, which may be the expected positive outcome we're all hoping for, but then again you never know how other investors might react.
If the drug only shows a stabilization of scores, that would probably be negative for the stock price in the short-term, but the company would most likely be allowed to bring it to the market anyways considering how terrible existing AD drugs are.
Anything else and the stock price will most likely crash again, although the company will still be able to pursue other indications.
Even if things look good for now, you don't want to play with money you can't afford to lose.
This is still a very risky stock that could wipe out your entire position given the right circumstances.
I assume you mean a PR on enrollment completion and not final dosing lol
Either way, 15 weeks means last measurement should take place mid-June.
Last time around it took about 2 months from final dosing PR to results announcement, so in that case we could expect results around August/September.
I think it's called an infection no matter if the virus is natural or artificial.
They both infect cells, it's just that bad viruses introduce bad changes, while good viruses introduce good changes.
It sounds scary because you most likely associate the word "virus" with bad viruses, such as the ebola or herpes virus, as an alien organism corrupting your body.
A better way to look at it is if you compare your DNA to a blueprint of a house. Because these "blueprints" randomly mutate, there are sometimes design flaws in the blueprints that cause the house to be constructed in an unsafe way that can eventually cause it to collapse.
For example, if the blueprint for the kitchen table mutates in a way that makes it never stop growing, it's eventually going to knock over your chairs and break through the walls and cause the whole house to collapse. This is pretty much what cancer is.
Gene therapy is really just a way of correcting those design flaws, and because each cell has its own set of DNA in it, you can't just change the design flaw in one "blueprint", but you need to find a way to make your fix spread to all the "blueprints", hence the genetically modified virus.
Now of course, things can go wrong and cause unintended consequences, but that's why we have clinical trials in order to see what works and what doesn't.
I think something worth mentioning is that this stock is still very much under the radar, even after the recent volume boost.
For comparison, if we multiply closing prices with volume, we can see that about $3,295,618 worth of Neurotrope shares traded hands last week.
Meanwhile, a company like Biogen had about $2,213,555,948 worth of shares trade hands last week, which is almost 672 times more money.