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Bater,
Even though you gave up your DDS license, can you perform a root canal on all of the Lombardo’s healthy teeth without anesthesia? I sincerely hope he has more than dozen teeth so that he feels a fraction of our suffering. We can lure him to your place, Weho, by offering free sushi and Sapporo.
Seriously, if no monetary deal is done by the end of this quarter, brace for a reverse split that will be shortly followed by a dilution. Legacy shareholders will be wiped out entirely and this company will be run for few more month. No way they will wait until April ‘19 as hovacre suggested. Cash burn is still too high, and we don’t really know what’s going on with the clinical trials especially AXAL.
I hope this company is not slapped with another hold as it would be a nail in our head. We would be done if that were to occur.
Can you provide any single example that confirms the Advaxis science is better than good, i.e. great? AXAL cervical Ph2 results were better than Avastin, but that was 3 years ago. Was the data great? No. Otherwise, we wouldn’t be a stand alone company anymore.
The more important thing is that the science evolves at the rapid pace, and the competition does not stand still. There are several revolutionary technologies are being in the clinics now, and nobody knows if they work or not. If they do work, Advaxis would be falling behind even further. That’s the reality. They need to show a progress. Need very strong clinical data to attract funds that ran away when this ship started taking in waters.
PS . Being a science guy doesn’t make you an expert.
I’m sorry but you are confusing the reasons and the consequences — incessant manipulation is the consequence of the faulty management. Bad management-> manipulation -> bad secondaries. Don’t put the cart before the horses.
Since no response, I'm reposting the message. I think the cash from a possible IST deal for head and neck cancer could be the only force that may overcome the gravity in the near future. Any ideas?
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Since there has been a lot of back and forth conversations re: IST for HPV+ H&N cancer to start this year, I felt confused when some posters here suggested that this deal would resolve all cash worries for ADXS. I started looking at those investigator sponsored trials, and this is what I see. All of the deals via IST route do not bring any upfront cash, rather they alleviate a cash burden for the sponsors. Am I reading this correctly? Does anyone have some first hand experience in this area?
I thought it was Ken driving a vintage Yugo with the Garden State license plates NEO HOT. Just masquerading as a poor CEO?
It's getting really absurd with the LOI conjectures. Yes, Amgen and Advaxis made some parts of their agreement confidential, but I don't believe an iota they have anything regarding a possible buyout clause in that document. Most likely, it's about milestones, milestone payments, and etc.
None of those conjectures made over the years have turned out to be correct. Not even close.
Someone else's loss doesn't mean our gain. Nobody jumped to grab a piece of Advaxis when BP's trials failed before. HOT's 1st IND is for non-small cell lung cancer, this one was small cell lung cancer. Different one.
Not only that, it's also illegal. No way Amgen would violate SEC rules to get ADXS for cheap. Amgen does not need to do anything -- they have been getting a major help from the third batch of Advaxis top management. All they need to do is sit tight and wait for the NEO results: they'll know if the data is great or not so great much sooner than anyone else. If they see the data is great, then they can just pull the trigger as the current market cap is so low, and they can afford to pay some premium to it. If data is just okay, they'll let their long term options expire...
Short interest is up by ~157K shares:
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
9/28/2018 3,288,852 758,799 4.334286
9/14/2018 3,131,860 2,546,608 1.229816
8/31/2018 2,278,530 427,544 5.329346
Iggy wrote: “5%? Not even remotely possible.”
——————————————————————
I think you are right. Even this message board members hold 5.379% of the float: you hold 5.379% and the rest hold no shares. Just bags, heavy bags.
Since there has been a lot of back and forth conversations re: IST for HPV+ H&N cancer to start this year, I felt confused when some posters here suggested that this deal would resolve all cash worries for ADXS. I started looking at those investigator sponsored trials, and this is what I see. All of the deals via IST route do not bring any upfront cash, rather they alleviate a cash burden for the sponsors. Am I reading this correctly? Does anyone have some first hand experience in this area?
Congratulations on printing brand new, multi-year low at 76/100. Where should I send flowers to?
Ben Kerlin
305 College Rd E
Princeton, NJ 08540
Yes, Mr. Zhang, you have made a perfect observation. Congratulations!
As you noticed, there are few gaping holes in the ADXS balloon made by local implosions emanating from the company's missed deadlines, scrapped trials and over-the-board compensations to the top management. Also, few insiders created massive holes trying to jump the balloon when vertigo hit at the altitude of 30.13 miles. Now, not enough pumps to fill the hot air escaping the deflated what-once-was balloon.
Maybe. The could get as much as $2.5M max as they have already received $12.5M of those tax credits over the years. Note the maximum lifetime "benefit" is $15M. Here is the timeline of those credits received:
Year Tax credit, $M
2012 0.725
2013 1.1
2014 1.7
2015 1.6
2016 2.5
2017 4.8
2018 (max 2.5)
Source?
Amgen, as a equity stakeholders, is subject to the same government regulations as any other entity. There are no exceptions. Otherwise, many hedge funds would be masquerading as health care funds or even biotech holdings.
It’s possible that some other funds (foreign?) could be accumulating. I do not know that is possible. Amgen would not do that to ruin their reputation and be under a scrutiny of the SEC and FBI. No way.
As a reader, I don’t recall James Salmon’s statement about having NEO data prior to inking a HOT deal. Searching this site seems a futile undertaking due to a lack of the feature.
I partially agree with the possibility that the management wants to see the data first, then negotiate a deal from the position of strength. They could get much better deal then than now without a clinical data. However, it’s too risky. The meaningful data could be available as early as March ‘19. By that time, they will be running low on cash, again. What if the data is not that strong? What if a delay happens? What, g-d forbid, if the clinical hold occurs? Every possible event would be a binary, i.e. lethal to the company.
I’d prefer them to sell one of the HOT indications now, and extend a cash runway by a year or so. That would buy us some time,and more importantly, will spur some interest among the funds. Some sort of validation that this company desperately needs.
[quote] all about raising capital[/quote]
Can we please raise the share price instead?
Same here, but I realized that few months ago. Unfortunately, too late to cut my 96% losses...
Monday afternoon tidbit:
As of 10/31/2016, the company had $152M in cash.
Two years later and $38M additional cash raised via two secondaries, we are down to $50M. Approximately $140M cash was burned in less than 2 years.
If we follow your logic, we must conclude that the company has the following unresolved issues with the past partnerships:
1) Biocon;
2) Knight Therapeutics,
3) Sellas,
4) Astra Zeneca;
5) Bristol Myers Squibb
and etc.
Company has never officially announced that those "deals" were shelved or discontinued (semi-implied was AZN). Are saying those partnerships still have a chance to raise from the ashes?
I posted this 20 day ago. Nothing that I anticipated with respect to the how this stock would be "trading" in the short term future until (and if) the company delivers something trajectory-changing. Absent any material news, we are at the mercy of those predators:
------------------------------------------
Our "friendly" shareholder, CVI, has the following trading habits:
i) It thrives on stock volatility. The run up the equity 4-6% on a given day to then take it down about the same percentage points the very next day. The trading cycle can be as long as a single day, or few days. There's no real pattern, and it's done to confuse and frustrate retail who is trying to trade around a core position. However, the moving average (5-10 days) remains pretty much flat. Thousands and thousands of shares traded, CVI pockets the trading profits and likely reduces its position in doing so.
ii) They tend to create synthetic positions using a reverse conversion. This enhances volatility even more, and thus they pocket more profits.
iii) HFT trading is going to be on a full gear. Now, Iggy, we are talking about money-pullation.
Congrats to all for ending up in this mess!
6 job openings now, both on LinkedIn and the company's career section. They had 5 jobs last week. A new position:
Senior Associate, Manufacturing
The Senior Associate, Manufacturing will perform various biological manufacturing unit operations which includes aseptic cleaning, media/buffer preparation, fermentation, clarification and purification in a cGMP clinical manufacturing facility. Initial job responsibilities will include working with a group of manufacturing personnel responsible for a diverse range of manufacturing related activities during plant start-up from Operational Commissioning/Shakedown through process validation.
EDUCATION:
High school diploma/GED with 5-7 years of relevant experience or BS with 3+ years of relevant experience
I think I might qualify -- does 8 years of @wmtgreeter experience count?
WTH is going on with jobs? Looks like folks jumping the ship once KB started cutting the work force, and now they need to fill vacant positions?
Wow, are we in the double digits already? Beter, you said you'd be back when we hit $10 mark. I need to check the stock price immediately!
Sounds like a prayer. Is this what we have left with?
I’m pretty sure CVI has already made money in this investment. How? They shorted heavily before this secondary and likely have already covered. They might keep warrants just in case.
In case you didn’t know CVI never holds their shares longer than 6 months. Pump and dump is not their forte.
I find it interesting ADXS is not presenting at SITC this November. That would be a very strong indication something is in the works -- deal, deal, and another deal. Maybe even a buyout, if that 3D Berlin-BP chess match approaching Das Endspiel. A scholar's mate will be in the bags.
1. Franklin St Advisors increased their stake by 60K shares.
FRANKLIN STREET ADVISORS INC 190,800 0.03 151 60,000 0.3626% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-10-05
ADXS "old" ($5) warrants are virtually dead. They traded as low as 1/100 of a penny! I hope the management is not that stupid to extend or re-price them now. That would be an additional signal for the stock weakness. Let them expire.
Interesting to note that some stock advocates alluded that someone was holding the stock price depressed to burn those warrants, and once October '18 is over, the stock would take off. Have not heard that for a long time, but it was a rather popular theme among the positivists. Looks like even they have changed their opinion on it. I do not think warrants expiration has anything to do with the stock price being in toilets -- the plain and simple reason for the stock price depression is the lack of execution. They need to execute: hit targets, deliver what was promised, and see what happens then. The management has zero credibility in the Street.
Date Open High Low Close / Last Volume
13:40 0.02 0.0399 0.014 0.02 17,348
10/04/2018 0.011 0.04 0.01 0.0372 44,668
10/03/2018 0.02 0.02 0.0001 0.0001 65,177
Nobody expects posts from the top management here on ihub. I said a feedback posts by the regular ihubbers after they communicated with the management. Do not twist what I wrote.
You should be directing that question to Ken Berlin, not trying to make it a rhetorical one.
Interestingly, there have not been any feedback/communication results from the top management posted here in the past two or so months except for what B.Liu posted. His post was deemed a fake by many, but I think he had some valid takeaways from his conversation with Dajani if that really occurred. If so, we are in a bigger trouble than we think we are.
The stock price was up ~20% in the pre market, and now I see it's down 15%. I do not follow that stock, just pointed out the deal, where J&J put their money. It looks like ARWR virtually sold almost everything, derisking their pipeline, however, their valuation is now dropped as the potential upside is now gone. It should always be a balance between what you keep and what you sell -- you need cash to advance what you have in your pipeline.
Similarly, ADXS sold NEO for very cheap options to Amgen, thus capping the potential valuation. The problem was they did not get enough cash to move the rest pipeline to the finish line, and then squandered even what they got.
So, you want specifics now...
I wish I were a CEO of Advaxis and getting paid like a King of Advaxistan. However, I'm just a @wmtgreeter and I'm paid $7.75/hr, plus I get paid $0.85/post here.
Seriously, I cannot advise what he should have done differently, but I did not like the following things:
1) Telegraphing that AXAL would be shut down if no takers by the next CC. I said "either he's so stupid or he is just plain brilliant". The jury is still out there, but it certainly looks like the former.
2) Skipping the CC and failing to update the status of AXAL. This looked like he was trying to pull the same old shit -- shelve the program quietly.
3) Secondary with warrants was just a sheer lunacy. It showed that Ken either did not care or did not understand the ramifications of the warrants. Either is bad.
4) A $150K bonus for raising $19M in the last secondary. I said it before and I'll say it again: He should have either used that money to make open market purchases or completely void that clause with a PR "... I forego the bonus until the company is in strong financial position, and moreover I announce that the top management voluntarily reduces their compensation by 20% until financial woes are over..". He failed to do that and quietly grabbed the money. I wonder why kgb did not say anything ...
5) I would not wait for the 1st HOT indication data to partner it. Get cash now.
I can continue. But I see that you are in 100% agreement with what Ken's been doing, right?
This is where J&J money is going after they dropped ADRO:
http://pdf.reuters.com/htmlnews/htmlnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20181004:nBw7wZ9yka
Arrowhead Enters $3.7 Billion License and Collaboration Agreements with Janssen
- Upon closing, Arrowhead to receive $250 million, consisting of $175 million upfront payment from Janssen and $75 million equity investment from Johnson & Johnson Innovation – JJDC, Inc.
- Arrowhead eligible to receive additional $3.5 billion in potential milestone payments, and potential further royalties on commercial sales
- Janssen to receive a worldwide exclusive license for ARO-HBV and an option to collaborate on up to three new targets
- Arrowhead will hold a conference call and webcast today, Oct. 4, at 8:30 a.m. ET
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ARWR) today announced that it entered into a license and collaboration agreement with Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc., part of the Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson, to develop and commercialize ARO-HBV. In addition, Arrowhead entered into a research collaboration and option agreement with Janssen to potentially collaborate for up to three additional RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics against new targets to be selected by Janssen. The transactions have a combined potential value of over $3.7 billion for Arrowhead.
Under the terms of the agreement, Arrowhead will receive $175 million as an upfront payment. Separately, Johnson & Johnson Innovation – JJDC, Inc. (JJDC) will make a $75 million equity investment in Arrowhead at a price of $23.00 per share of Arrowhead common stock.
Arrowhead is eligible to receive up to approximately $1.6 billion in milestone payments for the HBV license agreement, including a $50 million milestone payment linked to a Phase 2 study. Arrowhead is also eligible to receive approximately $1.9 billion in option and milestone payments for the collaboration agreement related to up to three additional targets. Arrowhead is further eligible to receive tiered royalties up to mid teens on product sales.
“This agreement represents an important next step for ARO-HBV. Arrowhead has established a leadership position in the field over the past several years, and Janssen’s proven development capabilities, global commercial reach, and commitment to HBV make it the ideal partner to potentially accelerate our goal of bringing a functional cure to patients with chronic HBV,” said Christopher Anzalone, Ph.D., Arrowhead’s president and CEO. “The collaboration also represents further validation of the TRiM™ platform and provides an important opportunity to create up to three additional novel medicines by leveraging Arrowhead’s speed and expertise in RNAi drug discovery and Janssen’s clinical development and commercial capabilities.”
Under the agreement, Janssen receives a worldwide exclusive license to the ARO-HBV program, Arrowhead’s third-generation subcutaneously administered RNAi therapeutic candidate being developed as a potentially curative therapy for patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection. Beyond AROHBV1001, Arrowhead’s ongoing Phase 1/2 study of ARO-HBV, Janssen will be wholly responsible for clinical development and commercialization.
Janssen can also select up to three new targets, against which Arrowhead will develop clinical candidates. These potential new candidates will leverage Arrowhead’s proprietary TRiM™ platform, and do not include Arrowhead’s current pipeline. Arrowhead will perform discovery, optimization, and preclinical development, entirely funded by Janssen, sufficient to allow the filing of a U.S. Investigational New Drug application or equivalent, at which time Janssen will have the option to take an exclusive license. If the option is exercised, Janssen will be wholly responsible for clinical development and commercialization.
The closing of the transactions is subject to clearance under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976, as amended, and is expected to close during the fourth quarter of 2018.
Conference Call and Webcast Details
Investors may access a live audio webcast on the Company's website at http://ir.arrowheadpharma.com/events.cfm. For analysts that wish to participate in the conference call, please dial 855-215-6159 or 315-625-6887 and provide Conference ID 2649806.
A replay of the webcast will be available on the company’s website approximately two hours after the conclusion of the call and will remain available for 90 days. An audio replay will also be available approximately two hours after the conclusion of the call and will be available for 3 days. To access the audio replay, dial 855-859-2056 or 404-537-3406 and provide Conference ID 2649806.
About AROHBV1001
AROHBV1001 (NCT03365947) is evaluating the safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetic effects of single-ascending doses (SAD) of ARO-HBV in healthy adult volunteers, as well as the safety, tolerability, and pharmacodynamic effects of multiple-ascending doses (MAD) of ARO-HBV in patients with chronic HBV. Dosing in the SAD portion of the study is complete and included five cohorts at dose levels of 35, 100, 200, 300, and 400 mg. Dosing in the MAD portion of the study is ongoing and includes cohorts receiving three doses of ARO-HBV either weekly, bi-weekly, or monthly. Arrowhead submitted a late-breaking abstract with clinical data to the Liver Meeting®, the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease (AASLD), being held in November 2018.
About Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops medicines that treat intractable diseases by silencing the genes that cause them. Using a broad portfolio of RNA chemistries and efficient modes of delivery, Arrowhead therapies trigger the RNA interference mechanism to induce rapid, deep, and durable knockdown of target genes. RNA interference, or RNAi, is a mechanism present in living cells that inhibits the expression of a specific gene, thereby affecting the production of a specific protein. Arrowhead’s RNAi-based therapeutics leverage this natural pathway of gene silencing.
For more information, please visit www.arrowheadpharma.com, or follow us on Twitter @ArrowheadPharma. To be added to the Company's email list and receive news directly, please visit http://ir.arrowheadpharma.com/email-alerts.
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act:
Cash crunch? He came a month and a half after the secondary. Oh, and the share price was double of the current price.
Just a deal? Nah, Ken and David would consider that too easy of a game for them to play. Aim higher, much higher!
Why else?
This is according to a great plan masterminded by Berlin and Sidransky to play a 3D chess game with big pharmas. First step involves exposing a weak tech by competing companies to then force a bidding war for ADXS technology. We all can see this through. All we need is the company's complete radio silence so that the BPs do to know what multi-zillion offers have already been made.
To da Moon!
In seven years or less, by the time Shkreli walks out of prison, there'll be no plume emanating from this "pile of garbage". It would have turned into compost and applied to make AMGN fields fertile by then. No traces of Advaxis. Martin should be warming a prison bench for folks like O'Connor and Lombardo.
As for Ken, I'd suggest you short every company he gets to run right from the get go. You'd never need to cover. There's a huge demand for poly sci folks like Ken to run public companies to the ground...
I'm not so sure the risk/reward ratio is great, otherwise we would see lots of buying. Something forces folks/funds with cash to stay on the sidelines. Perceived risks are too high? Think so.
I have a problem with the shrinking market cap. For me, a point of no escape is $30M market cap. If the current MC is cut by another 50%, we are done. We will be devoured by vultures like a small planet by a black hole. The biotech field would not even notice that event. Just Amgen would get us for a song and a dance.
I do not see any clinical data to be released until ASCO '19 in June. Until then, they desperately need to sign a deal or two. Otherwise, we cease to exist.