Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
My understanding is that part of the schedule shift was to allow the additional human studies to generate more data for the submittal, but they were still hoping that larger set of data would not be required. It sounded to me like they wanted to build it into the schedule in advance and hope they can deliver early, rather than ignore it now and get hit harder later.
Given the slip Medtronic just announced late in their game, it may prove that it was wise for Titan to declare it when they did; if it hits our PPS while we are .25, the few lost pennies will be much easier to make up over time. If they waited to the last minute or tried for approval without the data and then found out they needed it, it would be a much larger schedule slip and a much bigger hit to the PPS when they would have been so close.
If we weren't pursuing the human data now and needed it after submittal, I would guess it would be at least a 6 to 9 month hit to the schedule. Planning it all along as we now are, with as much parallellism as possible built into the schedule, I wouldn't expect it to add more than 3-6 months to the overall schedule, but it greatly obviates future risk.
Once again, I believe they are doing the right things even if the prevailing perception is otherwise.
PR Fatigue? Obviously Titan can do no right!
After two weeks of silence, people complain that they never get any communication. When we do get news, people complain that we are hearing too much from them! They just can't win...
Invest, I don't think the form factor is an issue at this point. If ISRG had patented it, they would have done so in the early da Vinci days. Patent protection period is finite - is it still 17 years max? Senhance uses similar form factor over and over again in any single installation.
Given the magnitude of patents held by ISRG, that had always been a nagging concern in the back of my mind that we could be stepping on one or two, but I was told Titan has reviewed over 1600 potentially related patents and feels that there are no issues.
My TD screen shows a high today of $1.00 but no further details.
Can anyone see each trade and find if one really went thru at $1, and if so, how many shares? Definitely strange if it really happened; a sale required both bid and ask to be up there. The only applicable fields are Bid and Ask, not Dream!
My hypothesis is that the last raise, if not the last two, were due to offers coming around or some other form of interest expressed by some big pockets. We didn't need the money quite yet, funded until around Q3. Why would he take the hit on dilution for a purely speculative raise when we didn't need the money? I think it's because someone was waving the money in front of their faces, so they would have been foolish not to jump at it. And purely speculative raises typically don't fill in the first day. The surgeon group from last year proved that if you offer them money, they will figure out how to take it. More importantly, it continues to show that the desire for SPORT and for Titan stock is ongoing and very real.
Didn't mean to be a D*^&; it wasn't my intent. I was trying to be realistic the entire time, and it felt as if you were the one on attack mode, claiming I was being unrealistic and then fabricating a catastrophic hypothetical situation to attempt to make me look bad for no apparent reason.
And if you have been here so long, you should have noticed by now that I don't appreciate personal attacks and I usually react much more harshly. I really didn't try to be in that mode, and I apologize if it came off that way.
I'm not sure who is being unrealistic. I think $1B value on the technology alone is easily a worst case scenario, and doubling the outstanding share far exceeds worst case at this point. I think more realistic is many times that market cap once we are on the market, but I was being realistic.
You could just as well have said they do a 30:1 RS and then tank to .12, and if that happened you and Skaag and anyone who ends with 777 can go to Vegas and celebrate Titan's miserable failure. If you think that is realistic.
I'm in for .43/share. The likelihood of this being diluted to a point of non-profitability for me is extremely low. I do not anticipate much further dilution (just a hunch) but even if outstanding shares doubled in number, I triple my money with a one billion dollar market cap. I think market cap will run into the multiple billions and dilution will be minimal from here on out - just my opinion, as always. I believe it will be difficult for most investors to lose in this investment if they ride it out. A little skepticism can be helpful, but too much can drive one crazy!
Hi mj and welcome!
I am not a surgeon, but I do know medical devices and the processes behind the scenes to get a product developed and to the market. I agree with your assessment that their main focus is clearly the SPORT system itself, with what appears to be little regard for shareholders or PPS. However, the robot is the star of the show, and by getting that optimized and to the market as competitively as possible (in terms of schedule, features, approved indications, distribution and support, etc.), that is how they are showing respect to us as shareholders. Their outlook is not short-term, and as an investor, I have the advantage of sharing their longer time horizon for success in this particular venture. With some of the past management derailments, it is easy to be frustrated with our current PPS, but the new team members really are doing everything as well as it can be done at the moment. To the extent the PPS doesn't seem to get much attention, I think their hands are tied, because they would certainly prefer to minimize dilution by having a higher share price, but realistically I don't see much more that they could do except continue to execute the plan, and get to a better exchange where institutional funding can be secured. They will get there...
Keep that goose in sight!
I know I have stated this before, but a schedule slip for this type of program is entirely normal and in fact, expected. I don't consider it to be a coincidence if two things which are expected to occur, actually do occur.
As a positive takeaway, the Medtronic delay validates the Titan delay and even further validates Titan's management approach, especially when considering Medtronic had almost unlimited financial resources compared to Titan. If a behemoth like MDT can't throw enough money at a program to maintain the schedule, then a matching slip by Titan's management on their shoestring budget means they are actually kicking butt compared to the big players!
With all of Trixie's sales to date, approval of new indications should affect DOZENS of patients!
Take what you want from my post.
If you only take "no FDA until 2022", so be it; you will most likely live a life of disappointment and despair, and you probably prefer your breakfast eggs with toast and bitter.
If you can glean from it that the medical device development process is fraught with unanticipated advancement but happens nonetheless and the process continually advances the state of the art despite people's worst fears, then you will be content on the ride to the promised land and downright happy when we get there.
I choose the latter. You are free to pick your own destiny and how you get there. I will be much happier with butter on my toast.
I am Hunky Dory until 2022. If I'm not retired by summer of 2022, I will be disappointed with this investment. These "huge delays" are par for the proverbial course in medical device development. ALL competitors are subject to the same schedule hiccups if they are lucky. This is not a "huge delay" by any means. A huge delay might be selling six systems in six years (Trixie, anyone?) but from a Project Management perspective, if we are selling systems in Q1 2021 we are ahead of a reasonable schedule projection for this program, and I am elated. And yes, I am willing to offer my Masters degrees in Operations Management and Project Management and my Masters Certificates in Program Management and Supply Chain Management plus my now 27 years in Medical Device Development as substantiation for my ludicrous opinions. So yes, let's be real honest... 2020 would be a real nice and is conceivable, if the McNally management team are absolute rock stars. If it's 2022, they are competent. I'm betting we are closer to Rock Star status, but I don't expect to be disappointed by their ultimate competence. THAT is being real honest.
Message in reply to:
It is kind of interesting that it’s always hunky dory until they drop huge delays. All we hear is how splendid it is and on track ....then BAM! Another delay!!! As if that came out of left field. Might as well be real honest and say 2020 now.
Order filled... Now it can drop, which it usually does after I buy.
Order didn't fill. Price went too high yesterday. I'm a patient guy, I can wait three more years for major sales revenue to drive this stock. But I don't see it going into rocket mode TOO soon so no worries!
And "big order" is a relative term; I was shooting for 60K shares to round up to 400K total. I guess that's a big order for a working stiff like me!
Or maybe the pre-clinical trials are being held in what is normally considered a lab environment (as opposed to a live operating room), in which case both are simultaneously true. Just a thought...
Funds cleared for trading tomorrow morning. Hoping for 5; will take what I can get.
Yup. That's the part I saw.
Has anyone here actually read through the new short form prospectus?
Just... ouch.
My IRA funds should be cleared for trading tomorrow morning. I think I'll wait to see where this PPS settles first, to try to optimize my volume.
Excellent! Drop me a note any time!
Message deleted by author.
I don't know how often you check the board... Can you check in right at 1:00EST (I assume 10AM for you)? I can post my email for you then but pull it back down a couple minutes after. Would that work?
Not I!
There are a handful of million-share owners prowling these messages. If I can round up to 400K, I'll be pretty much tapped out. And I wouldn't be getting close to that if it hadn't been for the ten cent fire sale last summer.
40 year Scotch? Bring it on! G7? One or two orders of magnitude from anything in my budget... I'll be ecstatic with first class on Southwest, if I ever get that!
And considering we just crashed through the .30 support floor, maybe four for a buck is coming soon... I guess I can wait a couple more days to see what's going to happen next. I'd love to round up to the next 100,000 share increment for my total Titan holdings!
Thanks Quid!
I'm going to pick the pieces I like from this... Support at .30 means I won't get 4 for a buck all too soon. The bottom Bollinger band has leveled off and the top one is dipping to meet it, so the squeeze play could mean a good jump (as if Bollinger could really predict this!). I suppose as soon as the funds are cleared, I will grab what I can!
Anyone have data handy regarding current first and second support levels right now? I'm trying to figure out if I should wait until next week for 4 for a buck or jump on more shares now...
Are spine surgeons possibly slower to adopt the technology due to less competition? When da Vinci came around, a couple general surgeons and a couple Uro guys jumped on board early, then everyone felt compelled to jump on the ISRG bandwagon to compete. With fewer choices of spine surgeons in most smaller and mid-sized metro areas, maybe the low competition factor slows Mazor's growth? Just a theory based on today's conversation...
Devicerep, can you elaborate on the workflow issue with the Mazor system? I haven't heard anything about that before. Is it more pertaining to general design/system geometry/size issues, or more related to user interface/patient interface, or maybe peripheral components/supplies?
I was just under the impression that sales reflected the cost vs. limited applicability - something a Spine/neuro surgicenter or a large hospital with a major spine center would surely be interested in, but that comprises only a very small percentage of organizations who would benefit from a more affordable general surgical robotic system. Maybe $1.7B is an appropriate measure of success for their limited scope market, but if there is more to the story, it would be interesting to know. It could also shed some light on a caveat or two for SPORT's entry in to the marketplace.
Ah, another patent approved! That explains the dip in price!
Man, this is some crazy shtuff...
Element, what is your professional background? There is a group of contributors who have some related specialty (Surgeons, OR tech/OR Nurse, some from device/development world, some from finance and investment) and several of them contribute helpful and insightful knowledge in their posts, especially as it pertains to their background. So, just curious about yours... Based on your recent posts and willingness to share your due diligence, you just might be in that category! Might I presume (maybe incorrectly, maybe not...) that you are from Canada?
Oh No!!! They did something they said they were going to do, and in a timely fashion! THE SKY IS FALLING! Or they must be lying... PPS falls on good news, right?
(Isn't that what we're supposed to think on this board?)
Message in reply to:
Looks like they updated the patent filing for their access port to provides mechanism for better sealing to maintain pneumo:
https://worldwide.espacenet.com/publicationDetails/biblio?DB=worldwide.espacenet.com&II=1&ND=3&adjacent=true&locale=en_EP&FT=D&date=20180222&CC=US&NR=2018049770A1&KC=A1
Hi Slick,
I wrote to Mr. McNally on February 8 at at 5:42PM. At 7:46PM he replied, indicating that he had forwarded some of my comments to the team to provide a more precise response. The following evening, he replied again with answers to my questions (and rightful indications of those he cannot answer).
I have had no issues with my communications with him. I do try to stay polite, respectful, and to the point as much as possible. I don't know to what extent this impacts the likelihood of receiving a response, but I imagine it doesn't hurt my chances.
-Mustang
Was one of those raises from the group of surgeons who asked if they could dump millions of dollars into the company coffers? I don't specifically recall the timing of that. But I can understand Titan not wanting to turn that down when it drops into their laps, especially given the ability to use that for marketing purposes. They have said there will be raises of some sort in 2018. Mr. McNally does read his emails and has responded well to mine, so if you have rational suggestions as to when they should do these upcoming raises, I'm sure he will read them and take them under advisement. I'm not saying they will do what you suggest, but maybe you have an idea or two which can make a positive impact. Can't hurt to offer.
I have stated before that the finance side of this is beyond the scope of my experience, so I will be slower to critique them for something I know so little about.
I will quote myself from post 66779 to reiterate a response to someone else's question at that time:
"Do you think he lied about the schedule? No competent management team is going to come out and say there is a delay until they have properly quantified the scope and impact of the cause for delay, and have ruled out the ability to address it in parallel with ongoing activities without actually slipping the schedule. By November, they may have taken some input from the trials and decided that some of the suggestions were worth pursuing, but may not have had all the related answers at that time. Do you consider it misleading if he knew something that he didn't tell you because he didn't have all the details worked out yet? I will contend that such misleading behavior is not in his nature; if it was, we still wouldn't know anything about a delay. He would still be withholding that information until actual milestone dates passed by. Instead, he has been as up front and forthcoming about these things as is prudent to be, and for his honesty and openness, he is taking a beating on this message board."
Six to eight weeks is a pretty narrow window in which to fully evaluate whether or not to pursue mitigative design work on multiple mechanical fronts (is it worth fixing any or all of the suggestions prior to initial release?), then perform the preliminary schedule and cost analyses (approximately what will it take to fix these?) and understand the impact these measures will have on the overall schedule (can they be completed entirely in parallel with existing activities or are there other schedule dependencies which will impose a delay on overall schedule?). I think it have been jumping the gun to announce a possible delay before knowing if there was actually going to be a delay, inflicting carnage on shareholders without knowing if it was justified in November. Once they knew for sure that they wanted to proceed with the modifications, they told us.
This is an area that I do have a clue about.
My point was merely that this type of "delay" is completely normal, regardless of how well funded a company is. Program Managers put together a schedule based on how long it should reasonably take to accomplish the requisite series of tasks, taking dependencies into account. It is entirely predictive in nature, but especially when considering competitive bids for outsourced development efforts, a company is often inclined to go with the quickest schedule. That quickest schedule is also going to be most prone to delays, often overlooking some steps in the process in order to get the contract. Even in-house development efforts don't always plan for the technological "gotchas" which can arise. It is rare for a project of this scope and magnitude to be able to remain on schedule, and when it does, it often means the schedule had too much of a fudge factor built in up front (which can be interpreted as incompetence in estimating the schedule requirements).
I vaguely remember someone on this message board trying to explain that this type of delay is completely normal for complex development programs. I wonder if MDT will get crucified on their messages boards for making sure they get things right.
If they are developing hardware revisions (camera, hand controls, etc.) they would probably need these other two systems to integrate the new hardware mods. Maybe after mods and test, they will do a rolling exchange program with the three sites instead of doing on-site upgrades, depending on the magnitude of work required for the upgrades. Just a thought... But I trust that the current disposition of those two additional systems (assuming they were fully built) supports an optimized business strategy for moving forward.
That is largely the point I have been trying to make lately... Although I don't think those processor boards are wirewrapped! Probably surface mount BGAs with over 1000 contacts! Wirewrapping that many digital signals would require more real estate than all four of Trixie's giant pods! Nowadays you can get a 72 hour turn time on a good digital Gerber package for fairly complex 10 to 20 layer boards for reasonable money, and the Gerber files map into the manufacturer's equipment for solder paste screen and pick and place (automated component placement). All pretty standardized these days. Prototype boards can be surprisingly close to production-ready and not nearly as expensive as 20 years ago.
As for cask strength running over 60%/120 proof... maybe to close the night. Start with that, it will be a short evening!
I have to agree with Mr. McNally on part 1... bear in mind, he is talking about system requirements, and even the current prototypes have been meeting those requirements. The current prototypes apparently are better than anything out there today. He did not, in that statement, indicate that more work was needed, and as I mentioned previously,even if they felt more development was prudent, the full scope was most likely not established, so no point in getting investors and potential customers upset about something that was not yet understood. I find no fault in any of those statements at that time. Imagine the panic if he said in November, "We are delaying the schedule in order to upgrade some of the hardware, and we don't know how long it will take." If they knew in November that they wanted to change anything, that's about all he would have been able to say. Would not have been prudent - unless we wanted to scoop up more shares in December at a nickel a piece! (There's a bright side to everything, huh?) His statement was on target, accurate based upon information known at that time, and now we will end up with a system that not only meets, but exceeds those system requirements which the surgeons raved about.
Based upon that assessment, there really was no reason to be put off by part 2 regarding schedule for FDA filing. As of November, there was no solid factual reason to believe that target would not be hit; that was the schedule they were working to and unless they had tangible evidence that they could not achieve it, it remained the plan. Circuit boards with new processor can be developed while surgeons use prototype equipment. A different team would be evaluating new camera technologies and how to integrate that with minimal design and schedule impact. All of this development work proceeds while the critical path elements of the schedule progress. As soon as one of those development paths exceeds the established timeline, and it becomes clear they were not likely to meet that target for FDA sumbmittal, he scheduled a conference call to let us know about the delay. The conference call was not really about the prostatectomy; other indications were performed in other locations, and each of those was handled with a press release to announce those results. The prostatectomy was some nice news to try to soften the blow of the schedule slip, but the meat of the conference call was to let everyone know about the slip and why it is happening. As I said before, if he was trying to hide it in November, he would still be hiding it now, and we would know about a slip until Q4 this year.
I'm working on a software upgrade for large lab instrument. Meanwhile, one hardware team in developing a better temperature control system, and another is implementing an improved pneumatic system. This all happens in parallel with minimal schedule impact. But once we decided these were important enough to do, we move forward. That is the development process, as I explained earlier today. Maybe that's why I find it difficult to believe how upset some people get about things that are truly normal, routine, expected occurrences in this realm. My bad, I guess, for actually knowing something for a change!
So which statements from the November conference call do you take umbrage with?