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months ago (possibly years), I mocked your little birdies. Today a little birdie comment would be nice. I hate how these small runs can vanish, hopefully this time it is a small step to a leap forward.
I think that's a little harsh. it is true Nader has been over optimistic throughout his history with CYDY. But that does not mean CYDY has not been moving rapidly in the right direction to achieve the goals Nader is shooting for. The goals have not yet been achieved (duh) but the development in pro 140 is happening. part of the CEO's job is to be a cheerleader. I think we can agree that making specific milestones on specific dates when the level of control Nader has over the trial sites and the FDA is beyond his control. Nader has been a little over excited and been unable to translate that into increased SP so it is apparent that the market knows Nader is just over excited.
Hi, I was not in the private placement with Paulson. I bought a majority of my share on the open market. Some shares are direct from cytodyn from the ipo. No invite for me to hear Dr C.
I would be petrified to short this at anything under $1, any news and there went the portfolio! I do like your contrarian observation. when the negative chatter accelerates there might be some worry that the short gravy train is over.
pears has been trash talking for months now pretending they are long and doing "DD" by questioning everything and presenting information as fact despite it not being supported by actual facts. this likely has scared away potential new investors and pushed longs to sell or reduce position. Many hear agree that pears is shorting CYDY and has succeeded with there rants in that the SP is much lower. Cymark is merely questioning why pears continues when there goal has been achieved and there is no need to continue with the trash talk.
I'm gathering ideas for questions in the CC and i what to get your opinions on what i'm thinking. One question i have is who can see the data being collected from these trials right now? i know we can't but the trial sites do, CYDY mgmt does and the FDA does. If a potental partner/ BO company called showing interest would mgmt have a data sheet available to show? Is that against the FDA process? My thinking is that the FDA is something we are dealing with but the real value to a BP is does pro140 work in the market share of patients that makes it a compelling buy. the data would right now potentially show that.
I tend to agree with you, I think mgmt is chasing Gvhd and Mono to try and create as much value as possible. I do remember that Progenics sold off pro 140 mostly because of the time and money required to get it anywhere. Nader did state that progenices commented that they would not have sold it given how far cytodyn has developed pro 140 in the time and investment made. The great thing that the value even as just adjunct is way more than the current valuation so there is still a compelling opportunity here.
I can't disagree with you, will be my question in the CC next week. I do think the statement that nothing has been accomplished is not true however. Pro 140 is much more developed and BP is much closer to patent expirations. Binary events can take years of seemingly nothing happening in order for them to occur. Maybe that is me being delusional or i just can't give up but i still remind myself that HIV is terrible and growing in #s, Pro140 works, The market is in the billions, capital investment firms want to cram there money into CYDY and many of the insiders don't need the money or the disgrace of a house of cards.
then why are you here, invested in CYDY? seems like you are certain of your opinion and there are many other investments that you could make. I hear TSLA and AAPL aren't bad.
I have an unfortunatly long history (12+ years) with CYDY so i get to remember all of the history to get to where we are. Please stop me when i start posting about the bird flu vaccines and real estate deals in florida!
here is your quote: "There has been NO insider buying. NONE. ZERO." yet you just posted inside buys in the last 12 months. I agree is is not much but not ZERO. I would think the insiders should be buying more and showing support with their own wallets, But they may also not want to deal with the SEC for insider trading based on what they know now and we don't know.
really? not one insider buy of CYDY shares? I typed in google "CYDY inside buys" and this is what i found in the first result from the search. It literally took my less time to find this than it took you to post that statement.
POURHASSAN NADER Officer 10/21/2016 Buy indirect 15,000 0.6620 15,750
MULHOLLAND MICHAEL D. Officer 10/17/2016 Buy direct 11,000 0.6580 37,043
NAYDENOV JORDAN G Director 05/10/2016 Acquisition (Non Open Market) direct 1,000,000 5,097,242
DOCKERY CARL Director 06/24/2015 Acquisition (Non Open Market) indirect 5,237,966 0.6750 7,474,509
ALPHA ADVISORS, LLC Beneficial Owner (10%) 06/24/2015 Acquisition (Non Open Market) indirect 5,237,966 0.6750 7,474,509
DOCKERY CARL Director 06/05/2015 Buy indirect 36,690 0.5000 2,236,543
ALPHA ADVISORS, LLC Beneficial Owner (10%) 06/05/2015 Buy indirect 36,690 0.5000 2,236,543
DOCKERY CARL Director 05/05/2015 Buy indirect 104,153 0.5000 2,199,853
ALPHA ADVISORS, LLC Beneficial Owner (10%) 05/05/2015 Buy indirect 104,153 0.5000 2,199,853
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/cydy/insider-trades#ixzz4dxBC6F4g
this is why:
"He has been a supporter and significant investor in CytoDyn"
just like the rest of us!
I don't think the salery is what any member of the BOD is after - they know the potential and have been the major supporters of pro140 from a insider buying perspective.
just to clarify, the inventor of Pro140 is Dr. Paul J. Maddon, Allen Allen who did just pass invented Cytolin and formed Cytodyn. Maddon is alive and currently senior science advisor for cytodyn.
There is no "new" boss, Anthony went from the board to being active in the operations in the company and Nader is still CEO. I don't think there is any past financial baggage that is different than the future financial baggage. this is a company that is developing a product that costs money and time. Every CC announcement is preceded with theories of what will be presented weather good news or bad. In the past there was always a lot of good, rarely bad news. i'm not worried - just interested in how things are going.
Interesting, I did not know about Tim Sykes, it is a little nice to know a known shorter was part of the stock price drop. At least we know the sp is being played by a shorter rather than there being something wrong with Cydy. I would think to make much money on shorting an .80 stock down to .60 would take a large amount of volume to the down side and that is what we have seen. Cydy can't really do much about it, we are in an market. This could not separate the traders from the investors better, I'm an investor and am focused on the long term multiple.
"dead wrong!" - a little harsh don't you think?
Yup, for the most part over the years i try to ignore CYDY SP but the pending catalysts get me looking at everything related to CYDY too closely.
I was thinking about BTD and orphan this morning and wondering why they bothered with applying. It looks like the FDA do not take there timelines seriously for their own special programs. applying for these programs just creates a risky binary event for small biotechs that deal with too much risk as it is.
good point - i try not to read to much into daily price action and the penny movements especially with this light volume. let's hope yesterday was as you say a final drop to set up accumulation.
Its interesting how the solid selling yesterday is met with solid buying today. not much price movement. i think the theory that it is just tax reporting is likely.
I agree that the SP is lower now than when Nader started with CYDY and that the development of pro 140 should have added value to CYDY but it has not. The major difference today is that we have liquidity now so we can buy and sell without hugely affecting the SP. The other difference is that pro 140 is at a point where it might go from maybe to reality overnight, before pro 140 had a long way to go before any BP would consider it.
I tend to lean towards not wanting to rock the boat by showing Nader the door but i do wonder what Anthony can do or what a new CEO could do. I guess I would like to know what we would do differently? I would have done far more PR to get more interest in the stock, the decision to not RS and up-list may have been a mistake but given the lack of supporting data over the past 4 months i would think we would be worried about being de-listed at this point. I also would like to have seen a much more modest salary and more insider buying to support the SP. Certainly more experience with a publicly traded company and/or a small biotech would be nice.
However, interviewing for that job leads to a lot of disappointment in real capability. there are many who talk the talk and don't deliver when given the opportunity. we know Nader's strengths and weaknesses and i don't think he has any other motivation than to see this through. the past CEO, Van Ness, was a disaster and a huge wast of time and money. I would not want to go back to that situation.
good point, the fact that the SP is not really dropping shows there is buying at these levels. I don't think a MM wants to hold shares too long.
I have a theory, Nader in the last CC gave #s for the first time in a CC. in the past CYDY was more secretive about these exact #s and it is possible that the board did not like that Nader gave out this info. Possibly CYDY is going back to being more secretive and there is nothing to worry about. I would guess being secretive might be an effort to not screw up future deals in the works? Or, more likely there just is not much to talk about and they are just recruiting and injecting.
This is a little odd, it would be nice if someone who posts here that is or has sold at these levels would comment on why. I know that sometimes traders just sell on emotion with no real reason and/or there is some other trade they want to get in and feel they can use the cash for that. There is no news but there is also likely no catalysts until later this month possibly. could be other traders feel safe that they can jump back in at this price in a few weeks? I know i would feel very stupid to sell today and positive news pops up and i missed it.
I do agree that the one problem with CYDY is Nader over promising, it was wrong for him to create the "golden quarter". However we know the FDA and the clinical trial sites are not under Nader's control so to blindly put an exact date on a milestone under those conditions is foolish - i would certainly like for Nader's confidence to be true but the future has not changed because of one date. Pro 140 works, trial sites are enrolling, patients are being injected, their lives are much better, the market is in the billions and growing, BP has patents that are running out, BP likes treatments better than cures, CYDY has access to funding to go through all clinical trials, and we are able to buy this for $.60 a share. What more do you need?
The only reasons for the valuation not being where we think it should be is the market we are listed on, lack of publicity, the sea of other biotechs with other promising products that might be more appealing, fickle traders who want to jump in just before the spike and sell for a quick profit and a slow moving FDA.
We can cherry pick facts all we want, but the story is the same, CYDY is still working toward the same thing we want them to. it will get there when it gets there. Mar 31 is just a day.
I remember in the past when they were developing PRO 140 to test the safety they injected a rat close to its body weight and the rat still lived. to say PRO 140 is safe is an understatement.
I don't think so. Also the fact that CYDY is not updating us really does not mean much - They do have a responsibility to not be too involved with the trials to keep their integrity.
The clinicaltrials.gov info was updated last november so that is likely why the CYDY time line differs. I don't think the .gov listing is that current and the dates are likely just place holders. would be nice to hear from CYDY to explain why we need to speculate on these things.
I think this happened once before, CYDY's response was to give it to there lawyers and at that time they never heard anything since. Sounds like nothing.
The FDA may have not decided one way or the other - no news is the most likely situation. It is clear that the FDA is a little backed up and not very on time.
Does anyone think it is funny how the FDA may want the trial results in order to designate BTD, which is meant to expedite the trials? Why bother? Its like offering to help a friend move but telling them they need to move there stuff first.
I thought that was interesting also, my opinion is that Nader is not as involved as before and that Anthony is in charge. It is possible that Nader has a much more defined role. Not that i was against Nader but i do feel better that Anthony is much more involved.
Don't blame you, Nader again over optimistic in calling this the "golden quarter". However the science has not changed and this really just shows Nader's statements should not be taken seriously. My theory is that the board may have not liked Nader making such a statement and asked Anthony to get involved. I think this is good that going forward the optimism will be replaced with real results. Pro 140 works, the FDA is late as always and it takes more time than expected to get through trials than what Nader thinks. The future prospects are still intact, it will take the time it takes.
Exactly, it would be nice if milestone dates are met, however milestone events are much more important. CYDY does not control the FDA or the enrollment sites. There is nothing wrong with PRO 140 and everything right about it, patience. they are moving in the right direction and want the same thing we do.
The world needs more problem solvers like Allen, what great accomplishments.
I emailed CYDY a week ago in concern over the SP decline despite the progress in pro140, The CFO responded and i ended up having a nice conversation on the status of things. No real new info but basically Cytodyn is just as upset about the SP as we are and Micheal could only explain that there are emotional buys and sells that have nothing to do with actual events/milestones. Basically he stated that the future events coming up are not to be based on what day they occur but on them being achieved. It sounded like the "golden quarter" statement should not be the focus of our investment - the potential of pro140 is very much intact and there are many things that cytodyn simply don't have control of. mainly is the FDA, he said that there are many at the FDA who are more concerned about there jobs and that this process can take some time. Micheal also reiterated that there is nothing wrong with Cytodyn and that they are working long hours, including Anthony. I took this as things are happening and that achievements will happen when they happen. I brought up the dilution and his comment was that companies don't fail due to dilution - they fail from a lack of funding. Also that the multiples for the value of pro140 are far beyond the level of dilution to get through the trials.
I'm not worried, i think things are going to be great in the near future.
Even though there was no good SP move after CROI or microbe, being there and presenting is very important mostly because if they were not there that would be very bad. Who would take CYDY seriously if they were non existent in the biotech industry conferences? a long time ago one of the drawbacks to pro 140 was the lack of peer review, being so visible to the medical field that deals with HIV everyday is very important.
Wouldn't CYDY need to give ample notice to warrant holders before uplisting? maybe that explains the accelerated 10k+ volume selling blocks we have seen in the past 3-4 weeks? just guessing here!
It's funny how i personally gave up on the idea of uplisting. I have been convinced that mgmt really has no motivation to uplist after the whole RS option never happened. But now that you brought it up i think it might be possible that Anthony stepped in because he did not agree with not being on the nasdaq and he might be focused on making that happen. seems like a big bargaining chip for a possible sale to be on the nasdaq rather than be under the radar as we have been. I'm adding uplisting to the p3 adjunct data and BTD application to my future possiblilities list!