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Len - If you want to talk about all time highs go look at the DOW or S&P chart denominated in EUROs. We have gone nowhere! Largely up because the dollar index went from $1.21 to $.80. Thankfully I was here with everyone for the microcap bull run, then the natural gas/oil bull, followed by base metals bull! I also road the real estate bull as I bought my first house at the turn in 1991!
I am one lucky man!
The question I am asking myself at this moment is....."now what"? I am heavy in cash, anticipating this recent run will end badly. I plan to buy back gold, base metals, energy, and tangible stuff after a big correction. We are entering stagflation. "Stuff" will be better than cash after the correction gets going.
All of this is my speculation/opinion, but you know what, if the market tanks I have a plan, if the market rockets from here, I still have my cash!
Mucho thanks to you and the founders/contributors to our VMC group!
Who knows, all of my zinc inventory to ZERO rhetoric may yet come true!
Kipp
Insider Sales by Sector - WHY ARE THEY SELLING???
http://www.j3sg.com/sector/indexSectors.php?Industry=Level1&levelIn=0%B5=null&showIndustyTic...
Looking at these numbers makes me pause here!
Kipp
Bobwins BLE
What do you think? Secondary?
Kipp
Cliff, my stock picks ran out of gas due to buyouts! RNO and LIM.TO both frozen by offers. My gold pick CMM.V is a manic stock to own (as in it makes me manic!)
I am really struggling for what to do in the next PSL?????
Kipp
Putin suspends arms treaty!
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2007-04-26-putin-arms-pact_N.htm
Does this impact the sale of cheap uranium from spent warheads???
Kipp
Bobwins - CMM.V News At The Bell??
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/070420/200704200385524001.html?.v=1
Bob,
This news was not out long enough for any market reaction. I looked it over and it is hard to understand just what they have because the gold is in narrow veins. WHAT DO YOU THINK?
"Margaret Kent, President and CEO, said: "At San Juan we have determined that the majority of the veins are high grade narrow veins. It is estimated that these veins have supported the production of over one million ounces of gold over the past 30 years. Many more ounces of gold will be recovered from these veins. To thoroughly understand the potential of this 20,000 hectare district is a major undertaking, and we now have 4 geologists working full time to expedite this project. The real excitement, however, are the other targets including Erika. We still have much more to learn about the geology of this property and I believe we have the potential for a world-class deposit."
Don Coxe Weekly Call Worth A Listen!
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/code/eventframe.asp
Interest rates going up and bond price going down. Dollar going down and dragging stock market with it. Gold and "stuff" going up. Is he correct?
Kipp
Don Coxe Weekly Call Worth A Listen!
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/code/eventframe.asp
What has worked for us metalheads will keep working!
Kipp
CMM.V News
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/070419/200704190385212001.html?.v=1
More GOLD!
Kipp
Chinese market bubble story.
This was printed right before the news of the Chinese Gov. delaying rerport on GDP and inflation, talk about overheated!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/c080c96e-edd4-11db-8584-000b5df10621.html
Kipp
JustForFun - Too many things to keep track of these days!
Sub Prime
Weak Dollar
Carry Trade
Currency Cross Trades
Trade Def.
Hedge Funds
Grain Prices
Oil/Gas
WOW! I don't feel like my back is against the wall right now.
Caution!
Kipp
Nikkei melting down -390 points at this moment.
China DELAYS GDP and Inflation Report!
It looks like Asian markets are selling off big time. Rumor has it the GDP and inflation #'s came in way too hot and China must raise interest rates immediately to keep from implosion.
Kipp
Bobwins, I guess we can't ignore the "sell it in May and go away" after such a huge run. Probably healthy to have a pull back instead of a parabolic rise.
I wonder why most of my metal stocks are not responding to the jump across the board in base metal prices? Seems to be a little disconect here today? What do any of you guys think about this?
Kipp
cliff - My ponies are getting tired here!
I am not sure how much longer these ponies can gallop at this clip? It sure feels like we are getting stretched here. LIM.TO and RNO are out of the race. CMM.V popped and is giving some up now. ROK.V is benefitting from the Sprott moly fund. It will be a close race for you and I down the final stretch of the PSL5. This is a great contest and I sure appreciate Skills and Len for putting so much into it!
Good Luck!
Kipp
It is all CMM.V and ROK.V for me, Gold and Moly. My nickel plays are "under contract".
I have:
RNO - double down being purchased by Lundin
LionOre - Xstrada buyout
CMM.V - Century Mining double down on gold.
ROK.V - Moly
The future is in "stuff"!
Metalheads and miners "rock"!
Kipp
Trader's expo sounds good!
Here is a link to the event:
http://www.lasvegastradersexpo.com/
This sounds like a good idea to "piggyback" with an event that would have general appeal. We could have a couple of our own meetings on the side.
Kipp
Don Coxe Weekly Talk - Inflation/Gold
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/#
Record level of margin debt prompts regulator warning
JONATHAN STEMPEL
Reuters News Agency
NEW YORK -- As thousands of homeowners in the United States are realizing it's unwise to borrow more than they can afford, the National Association of Securities Dealers is offering a similar warning to investors: It's risky to invest more than you have.
The brokerage regulator said yesterday the amount of debt investors took on to buy securities, known as buying "on margin," had soared to a record $321.2-billion (U.S.) in February. That topped the previous record of $299.9-billion in March, 2000, at the peak of the last bull market in stocks. Margin debt has more than doubled from $141.3-billion in January, 2003, the NASD said, three months after the bottom of a bear market in stocks.
Wade, the answer may be no.
This story gives the details of what is nothing more than political banter. The housing bubble is popping and we are years away from the final correction. It is a multi trillion dollar problem.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/11/AR2007041102200.html
THANKS FOR THE LIVE UPDATES cl001 !!
I appreciate your insights big time!
Kipp
ALT A and Sub prime $3.5 Trillion Problem?
"This is starting to look more like what happened in 1991– a consumer hard landing. Sub-prime and Alt-A is more like a $3.5 trillion problem, which will progress gradually through 2007 and 2008.”
http://www.financialnews-us.com/?page=ushome&contentid=2447522020&printview=true
LEN - I posted that mortgage chart!
Here is the post that has the chart of variable mortgage resets. You need to scroll down the page in my post #69539
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18556897
Florida Forclosure Picture
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070408/BUSINESS/704080762
MSGI - Read this Mortgage/Builder Report that was recently posted by "bigpike". It is almost 70 pages and is a detailed report on the homebuilders and lenders and took a lot of the guessing out of what is going on.
http://www.billcara.com/CS%20Mar%2012%202007%20Mortgage%20and%20Housing.pdf
We are in for a very rough ride!
Kipp
California Foreclosure Sales Near $2B in March
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070405/20070405005800.html
Read these stories about ALT-A Mortgages
The people that took out adjustable rate mortgages were told the value of their home would increase, they could then take equity out when the loan was about to be "re-set" to a real rate, and then re-finance into another cheap adjustable rate loan. NOW THAT HOME PRICES ARE DOWN and the lenders are UNABLE TO OFFER CHEAP OR ZERO INTEREST LOANS, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF LOANS ARE GOING INTO DEFAULT!!!!!
First this story from Monday:
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2007/pi20070405_121074.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+in....
24 hours later:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/american-home-warns-spreading-subprime-mortgage/story.aspx?gui...
Now look at this graph that shows adjustable rate mortgage re-set dates:
Mortgage MELT DOWN!
Now Alt A and non sub prime lenders will fail. This is going to be worse than the talking heads have been reporting.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/american-home-warns-spreading-subprime-mortgage/story.aspx?gui...
Consumers about tapped out???
Paying bills with credit cards?
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/04/06/business/main2657905.shtml
Kipp
Natural Gas Report
http://www.cornerstoneenergy.com/marketnews/mi040607.pdf
Snow rain mix here in Denver!
Kipp
I sold my ARSD WAY TOO EARLY! OUCH!
Anyone still holding?
Kipp
Don Coxe on Sub Prime and Food Inflation
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/#
Food Price Inflation is here and growing!
Eggs are increasing $1,452,000,000 this year(if I did the math right). Now think about ALL food prices and how big of a tax this will be on the consumer.
Egg Prices Up This Easter
(CBS4) Maybe the Easter Bunny should hand out colored carrots this year.
Eggs, which usually go on sale the week before Easter, are a lot more expensive this year than in years past.
Nationwide, the average price for a dozen eggs is up 33 cents to a $1.51.
On an average week, Americans buy about 74 million cartons of a dozen eggs. The week before Easter, that number usually goes by up by 25 percent.
But demand isn’t the only reason for the price increase. Terry Franci with the American Farm Bureau Foundation said as a result of an increase demand for the ethanol, corn prices rose sharply this year.
And the increasing feed prices aren’t just affecting eggs. The cost of bacon has jumped by 24 cents a pound to a national average of $3.44. The price of pork chops also jumped by a bout 22 cents, with the average price for a pound a chops hovering around $3.41.
The potential good news is that as the demand for corn goes up, more corn crops are being planted, which means prices should come down in the coming months.
Thanks Guys! I am a moly bull for sure. I can't see how Sprott setting up a market and acting as a buyer of last resort can hurt the market. Who knows, perhaps they will pass it on to the LME some day. I need to decide who in addition to Roca and Blue Pearl I should own.
This is my list of choices so far:
BLE.TO ROK.V MOL.TO AUA.V GPXM.OB WEX.V WM.TO WRY.V NCV.V RMKMF.PK
Anyone care to add to the list of moly stocks?
Kipp
Bobwins, Nuts, cl001 please comment on what you think the Sprott moly fund will do to the equities:
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070404:MTFH78587_2...
Thanks!
Kipp
Welcome back Nuts! I am in defensive mode at the moment. We made some huge metal gains the past few months. I am going to pay my taxes and hunker down. What is your take on the general markets?
Kipp
SPIN....SPIN....SPIN
The financial media will spin the FED speak hard here at window dressing. In my opinion we are in a tinder dry forest, Smokey The Bear is pointing to EXTREME fire danger, all it takes is a match and poof!
Kipp
In real life, this is the point that I would sell everything and protect my 60+% profit.
Kipp
echos - SHW - Sherwin Williams Paint
SHW is a big supplier of paint to condo/single family home new construction contractors. They do not have a huge retail exposure and do not sell Home Depot and Lowes. They are coming off record highs. It is a little scewed due to lead paint litigation win. However, it looks like new construction is headed much lower and they could really fall. I have Sept 70 puts.
Good Luck,
Kipp