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Humm; like I said the first time. Only good I see at FUEL was intuitional interest. You may be excited about the right stock down the road.
I'm not a buy and hold guy. But I do always say. "Do what the big guys do." But for now IMO FUEL is dead money for several months. With no guarantee, just hopes and dreams. Remember the 2% rule on long holds. So the ROI odds remain in your favor.
CIM divvy Declaration Date coming up end of March. Yes may see a pop. But from what I read, some concerned about the 9 cent dropping. This will cause a price retrace. 9 cent held may cause a stronger then usual climb.
IMO they are due for a new public offering to raise fresh cash to overcome the interest rate hike concerns for REITs.
I haven't chosen my new divvy plays yet. Waiting to see first Q results for REITs in general.
S&P just broke 2060 support. We need it to hold tomorrow or expect 2000 or lower the next 3 weeks.
link back for chart.
FUEL just had an island reversal and should channel bounce at lows for 3 to 6 months. Then pop, fill gap down and stall for a week or 3. If it continues after; all's OK. If not; 3 to 6 more months of winter. LOL
The channel bouncing can often be large enough to swing trade for several months.
It's been 3 weeks and about time to watch for the decision at FNMA. Basing channel was 2.70 / 3.00.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FNMA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p68990531951
The more you see something happen, the more you can rely on it!
FUEL
No positive chart pattern. Just down graded, poor management results and large short position. Only good I see is institutional increasing position at lows. HUMM??
They some how screwed the pooch when the run from $80 to $120 gapped down and dove. Come backs are a bitch with big caps.
It has a very sloppy reverse heads & shoulders pattern. With target just around next resistance. But also an emotional stock jumping up & down too much for my taste. Gap city. Your play would be 84 to 88 about 5% and IMO not worth the risk.
Sold out of NYMT & ARR end of year. Still deciding what next 2 year divvy play will be. Let you know.
While CIM has only a 11% divvy, may consider going back there if the March 2 earnings and call is good. Been thinking CIM is due for some growth. Maybe a new public offering.
Rounded bottom. A cup & handle is a continuation pattern and requires previous up trend. Target calculations the same.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle_continuation
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:rounding_bottom_reversal
My opinion is it's way too emotional to expect continuation. Checked some back ground why all the excitement and found a weak company with strong reserves news.
I'd take profits if I had any.
So your long no matter what. Cool. May take some more time IMO. Keep an eye on government legislation. Repub's in now, could come late spring. If it goes private, stock should pop. Or any news pertaining to passing the legislation which stalled last May/June.
Like PME 2.80 to 3.10
Also watching GORO re-entry 3.85 to 4.40.
Not sure where you stand. If your wanting continuation back to the $4's + to break even or not. But after my last 2 posts explaining the norm's for island reversals, I forgot 1 thing.
My main rule of thumb, on island reversals, volume in / volume out. Where you want to see the same volume into the fall, in the comeback breakout. This one didn't quite make it. If I was a betting man. I'd bet there will be a channel, but it will break south. Because there wasn't enough volume out, to match the volume in.
Something to think about if your looking for an acceptable loss figure. Instead of a get even or make profit, after holding so long. This may not be the get even move yet into the $4's. Retail volume support was a little weak.
Just got back home to Philly after a week at my son's in Connecticut. Want to talk about snow. LOL I have maybe 4 to 5 inches out front in the Philly burbs. He had 30 inches at least, out his front door. Only my grandson's birthday would get me into that. LOL cold & snow isn't the fun it was at 68, as it was at 28.
FNMA
Ps; don't worry to much about the quick retrace to fill that emotion gap. IMO it will settle down and stall some where between high and gap fill. If it moves like most island reversals do. Watch 2.90 / 3.10 for a channel.
Doubt it. That trade is speculators probably hedging the oil trade in some way.
3X ETF's don't move a market sector or industry. Usually the sector or industry moves the 3X ETF.
It's the same principle why I play FAS/FAZ when the market (S&P) has whip shawl. I speculate the market will continue to go up & down, so I go for a bigger ROI with a 3X. They feel oil has bottomed, so they go for 3x instead of just oil futures. The volume only tells you lots think oil is ready to climb. The volume won't change what happens.
That was a bad call. Obviously. I did what I usually do and traded the chart, not the prediction. FAS gave me 5% the week I predicted FAZ. But I'm not trading FAS/FAZ any longer. Feel the whip shawl is over.
Over all traded FAS/FAZ 5 times for 4 to 5% each week. I think this is done.
SAMP
back in the day I'd say it's interesting because it had a price spike and then bottom fishers volume move it. But now days that seems to mean squat. If the action was because of a funder, it could have a 3 day pop and is worth watching closely for that.
But keep in mind, runs on the OTC the last 9 months have only lasted 3 days or so. So don't buy & hold expecting any longer term continuation. If a pop does happen, take profits quick. IMO
Thought; dead OTC stocks usually stay dead. Wouldn't expect a pop just because it's at lows. It's the OTC, not big boards. There is no previously successful company to create a come back. And the darkside funders game has ended. Basic, simple and clean, I see no reason for it to pop. Hope it does for you. But not holding my breath.
success to you.
NKE
Great stock which has gotten a little over extended. I have a friend which holds a lot of NKE and I told him to take profits in Jan, which he didn't do because it kept having those pops After each drop.
The thing with it now is it's working on a long term chart pattern called a Bump & Run. check the pattern in the link below.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:bump_and_run_reversal_reversal
With Bump & Runs;
Odds are if the 50 day MA is broken on a run/retrace. (which it has) price will eventually reach previous trend line. In NKE's case, that's between $84 & $86 before it coming back alive. Want to mention one more thing to keep in mind. There is a rule of thumb with big caps that if it reaches $80, eventually it will hit $120.
So the whole thing about NKE is are you playing it long, or swing trading. Swing I'd expect a retrace to mid eighties. Long I'd expect $120 in 6 months to a year or so.
Usually what happens after an island reversal has it's come back is it stalls after the pop for a week or three. While everyone re-evaluates what happened with the company to get the new vote of confidence.
This stall or basing point can go either way. So it's a time of caution, weather to hold for more or dump with a smaller loss. due to the new pop. One should not feel comfort with island reversals until it breaks out from the stall after any pop and gap fill. Because I've seen just as many dive back down as continue to run.
Good luck. The pop did fit the standard 3 to 6 month bottom. So remember what to expect the next time you get caught in one of these.
Haven't been around so often this year. WOW actually got some questions. Things slow as the OTC market is dead and most of the old questions were OTC.
WLAN
Actually to qualify as a cup & handle (which is a continuation chart pattern) prior up trend is needed.
So no, it's not a cup & handle pattern. Prior trend was down.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WLAN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p48764550090
You would call it a rounded bottom and use that pattern for future direction expectations. But keep in mind charts are less reliable in OTC stocks.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:rounding_bottom_reversal
ISLE
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISLE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p40835362799
In that industry I use to play LVS & WYNN. But both have been having problems. ISLE on the other hand has been out preforming the industry. Personally don't like trading highs. And the chart is at a high.
I'd watch for a flag retrace and not enter until I was sure any retrace bounce breaks top resistance for continuation. For moral support check LVS & WYNN when ISLE starts moving higher. Because if the laggards are moving the leaders will continue.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LVS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p42642432610
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WYNN&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p45200611834
Watch what happens with that pincher. I don't play them because half the time they fail.
DRYS well worth watching. Use to be a fav of mine. But with global economic Indicator Just Hitting A 30-Year Low, things have been bad for shipping.
Chart has bottomed and entry anywhere above $1.50 look reasonable to play any come back. Institutional is already entering. My concern is poor management, with a gross profit of 55% and a profit margin of -2%.
Wish for Success but caution needed.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=79890992
Chart patterns are what I use to determine entry. Check out link above. And ask questions when you have a stock in mind. I'll try to give some pointers on what I see good and bad.
Hate to say it. Said before.
But FAZ week. LOL
My prediction was no later then March. LOL we all know predictions always come true. But, we'll see.
It will be a real hot time when it happen though. IMO
Seems the wild west calmed down in 2014 and I expect the old days are over. Haven't even check for a play this year. IMO waste of time looking for some rare setup which is over in a few days.
FAS/FAZ my friend, been making money at the S&P for weeks.
Anyone remember to play FAS/FAZ in continuous market flux? Board search fas/faz of previous posts.
Only thing I'm doing presently.
Time to sell MINE; if anyone in pennyland is still out there.
Your seeing the OTC mindset at the big boards. Bottom fishers! I continue to say; Oil will recover when the darkside decides it wants it to. Just be watching.
Oil !!!
A depressing subject. Shows what supply & demand really means in todays capitalistic world! The people of the world have no chance at financial stability. As long as the heart of capitalism is run by a remote controlled pacemaker. Be it Energy | Metals | Meats | Grains | Softs | Bonds | Currencies.
Think of it. How would you like 10 neighbors have a remote control for your pace maker? Well globalization has created a new power structure, which will eventually rule earth. "Commodity Central", where a handful control price. Not supply & demand.
That's why guys like Putin, Hitler, Kim Jong-Il, and a few south American leader, step in and take control of their commodities sector companies. Dictators have always known armies can't control the world. They just weren't as smart as todays new world order is. Putin OIL grab is killing Russia now. Hitler went about it backward ,army first. And we all know how well the economy is in North Korea.
Problem is, times were when each country had it's own commodity base. Now days it's global! It's a "New World Order" ! And we're living when the major end game is playing. The elite have been planning and manipulating for a hundred years. It's only been the last 25 that they are winning. Control the worlds commodities and you control the earth. Oil is showing how well they have been doing!
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=w1
Oil; we never pay what it's worth. We pay what "commodity central" demands. Where did the 99 cent hamburger go, 25 cent chocolate bar is now $1.25. Gas over $4.00 3 months ago. You can be sure supply & demand didn't change that !!!!
This isn't your fathers "capitalism" any longer !!!!! When supply & demand determined price.
PS; the dollar keeps climbing! LOL
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR/chart
Were you talking about when the Saudis' take their foot off the kill the fracking US break peddle? LOL