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E’s frustration is he’s been hearing the next catalyst will do the trick for three years and it’s frustrating and tries ones patience.
The reality is the catalysts have changed and now appear to be of the magnitude that should provide the impetus for a licensing deal with upfront payments. I think we would all agree that putting Paulson in our rear view mirror is the game changer.
Until the non dilutive $ shows itself the SP will continue in lock down...and we will be subject to waking up to Ground Hog Day every day with our good friends at Paulson that will continue sell, sell, sell anywhere around the .50 benchmark.
Thanks BL. I think you have it right. No info on the dose escalation on the first 18.
Good question BL. I’m where you are, unclear. Misiu?
Your theory is quite probable. There are so many catalysts that could break this cycle. Cancer and Mono results are the biggies on my list. Just going to stay the course as the science continues to impress.
I hear ya Evil. It’s just a yawner until that happens. The only thing that bothers me is Nader has been saying we are days away for years. Logic says a tipping point will occur at some point in 2019 with the catalysts that are on the table.
The $500M has a nice ring. It does not however represent the investment and risk the CMO is taking by fronting $500M in product.
The cost to manufacture $500M by my calculations is approximately $25M or even less. Remember Pro-140 was originally priced at $24k per patient per year and now NP has it at $120k. They were projecting a very nice margin at 24k. It’s not to difficult to do the math in terms of the actual COGS.
I’m just putting the relevance of the $500M number into perspective. It’s all great as it reduces immediate BLA expenditures but does nothing for the SP. We need a deal with upfront payments to get the valuation and SP moving upward. Until that happens we are stuck in the mud with the endless inventory of the Paulson shares that are flushed because of the ability to control risk free warrants. It’s like the movie Groundhog Day. The term is now used to describe a recurring event.
Show us the money, Nader.
FWIW this is my take on possible upfront payments.
If you base an upfront payment structured around production of $500M product the norm is 5-10% upfront - that is per a source familiar with the process. Nader said $Millions in upfront payments, not 10’s or $100’s of $Millions. Remember Nader is a salesman and he’s going to get the most mileage he can out of the numbers he can honestly use.
I asked on the CC specifically if the upfront payments COULD be enough to take us off the path of further dilution. He said he couldn’t answer in terms of the size of upfront payments at this time. There is NO question that Nader and the board have countered and the negotiation process is in play at this moment. My speculation is they were offered say $15M and Nader countered at $50M hoping to strike a workable deal at a min of $25M hoping to get more. This isn’t going to take forever to conclude as the meat of the deal is in place. If you have purchased or sold real estate it’s similar as each party has a limited time to flush, counter or accept the deal.
I’m in total agreement with Fines on this because Nader made the statement. He didn’t say we are working on, exploring, or hoping. I have also discussed this with a very reliable source that pointed out the same exact point that our once short, now possibly long “eetrog” stated, and I quote;
“Terry Chrisomalis is spot on, they just delivered the message to you, you have ever desired and you totally ignore it. You have received multiple offers.”
Do you really think “eetrog” is going to flip 180 on a hunch. No it’s a fact and we were so caught up in what we wanted and hoped to hear on the CC we missed it. As I said a very savvy biotech investor that has plenty of skin in the game pointed out the same thing to me the morning after the call.
Nothing is 100% and I’m not saying we are going to have a deal. What I’m saying is this is the first time that we have multiple offers and we are in negotiations right now. If Nader feels we are being taken advantage of and it is not a good deal for the SH’s then we will continue with Paulson with small raises until a suitable deal can be negotiated. The good news is this gives us much need positive exposure with interested parties.
Unfortunately I can’t make the trip as I have a previous engagement.
Hello, I just made that point.
Golden, that was my initial thought as well because we base our opinions on the past not the facts in front of us.
The writing may be on the wall. “Considering offers with upfront payments”. To me that means we have countered. If that is the case we MAY be on the cusp of averting dilutive financing for the remainder of the journey. Nader has to consider very carefully what that could mean in terms of unlocking the SP. They are raising in small increments for a reason.
Your entitled to your opinion. I completely disagree.
The only event that is keeping the SP down is the Paulson raises. If Nader is able to strike a deal that supply’s enough upfront payments replacing Paulson with non dilutive financing its game over. Leronlimab is going to gain exposure and it’s real value will be revealed. I don’t think you grasp the magnitude of what this molecule is capable of doing. Remember, Pestell is going for MOA approval for Cancer with FDA. I know it’s very early but interim TNBC will be plenty to enlighten the world. Not to mention the undeniable 90% plus Mono Efficacy. I know you are Long and under water like most here. I guess your going to have to come along for the ride grumbling and worrying a bit, that’s ok.
The pathway to righting the SP is within grasp. As Nader stated on the CC their are offers on the table for upfront cash. That tells me the deal is in the works as Nader and the BOD has countered.
The only question is how much upfront cash. A non dilutive deal means bye bye Paulson and no more warrants. That means the catalysts on the short list will push the SP to an organic uplist because their will be no more arbitrage.
An uplist will get this to $5 in the short term and look out when the BLA is completed and TRNC interim hits the fan.
It appears clear that Nader wants to take this all the way and is not looking for BP to be reasonable in terms of valuation.
The days are numbered in terms of bargain hunting. The bears here are going to be eating crow and and feeling quite ill.
That is what Pisses me off. eetrog is so misleading. The Pestell 13/D shares are a transfer not a sale.
This sums up where Cytodyn is today and where we can expect to be over the next year.
https://smallcapcorner.com/cydy___cytodyn_inc_
Interesting how those with the least or NO skin in the game make the most noise and claim to be prophets. The ignore list is short but it’s amazing how the number of posts is cut in half. NOISE.
Here, Here. A voice of reason. I have mentioned the noise factor several times. Spot on BD.
The CC was what I expected.
- Nader has to kiss the hand that feeds him and Paulson is our bank until they are not.
- Commercialization at this time is the event that may supply our first non dilutive financing. The $500M number is misleading as it is extrapolated utilizing the $120k per year patient cost. No company is going out on a limb for $500M up front, pay me later deal. I knew Nader would not answer that question before I asked it- it just needed to be asked to define the reality of the deal they are working on and what can be expected in upfront payments. My guess is COGS is approximately $25M. Its anybody’s guess as to what we could expect in upfront payments. That will be dictated by the strength of the clinical data at the time at which such a deal occurs.
- The positive is progress is being made on all fronts albeit at a delayed pace due to economics. No surprise here. Some of the new investors may know the history but they haven’t lived it like many who have been here for many years. This is the norm until it isn’t.
- As the clinical data mounts on the HIV Mono front and Cancer front the tipping point could occur when least expected.
- This not a zero sum bag holding investment- Leronlimab is worth at least a $Billion worst case. It is however a life changing drug and investment with a high probability of a 20x plus return for the patient investor.
- I don’t pay attention to the drum beaters that talk down where this company is at this moment. Say what you want about Nader. He’s a used car salesman on one hand but he’s a Bulldog on the other and he’s not going to let go of this bone without proper payment - I actually believe he has the SH’s back. Fortunately he’s got Pestell as a teammate that can do what he can’t. Not the worst team by any means.
- The science is stellar and Pestell is betting his life’s work on it. For that reason I’m in to the end.
I’m settling in for the endurance test as our fearless leaders plod along making history. IMO it’s going to be one helluva ride.
Thanks for clarifying trding, I am hopeful that is the case in terms of priorities.
No doubt Misiu. I am in your camp as I totally believe in the science as do you. I’m a little more impatient with Nader than you but I do know we only have a small part of all the information so I have to trust the process or get out. I’m in until my logic tells me otherwise. I don’t plan on selling a single share until this company is purchased.
GLTU Misiu, you are the type of person that demonstrates the type of integrity and character I am honored to be aligned with.
Impatience is a by product of following day to day, length of time in investment, expectations, and especially the Paulson raises that lock down the SP in a game of arbitrage. That makes the SP very predictable regardless of news other than non dilutive financing.
We are in a waiting game. I’m nearing the end of seven years so I can be a bit jaded when it comes to really believing anything will be different about this CC. Biggest shift is Pestell and the Cancer story. I’m very enthusiastic about this story however it dispersed a very limited budget and for whatever reason little emphasis on our P3 Pivotal Mono Trial. IMO every penny we have should be expediting Mono. JMHO.
I’m a cup is half full person so here’s to new information today in reference to $.
That’s the big picture. NP is going to go to the Paulson well until a better financing option is on the table.
The arbitrage that we find ourselves in is temporary and from NP and RP’s perspective (and the BOD for that matter) much less harmful to shareholder value then the current alternative.
Hopefully some progress is being made on this front and today will supply some answers as to the strategy being employed-other than the redundancy we have already heard.
This is shaping up as one of the more intriguing CC’s we have had.
There has been much SPECULATION on this forum. What’s interesting is how that speculation will stack up as to how NP and RP see things. Fact is they place zero emphasis on expectations voiced here because they have all the information and we have breadcrumbs.
Bottom line is I’m trusting and banking on RP to change the face of this company in every way, especially raising $ and our relations with BP. He’s the horse.
I’ll find out what the story is.
I have emailed contact for this event to determine if I can get one of the exclusive invitations and also who exactly is paying for this Breast Cancer Awareness Event. With RP taking center stage it would seem to be Cytodyn. Question is how involved is Paulson? Is the audience going to be predominantly potential Paulson investors that are being lined up for the next raise.
This was an email I received from a group email list I am on from a major CYDY investor.
Dear Bob,
My name is Aisling and I am Executive Assistant to Trent Davis, who has recently joined the Paulson Investment Capital Holdings, LLC as CEO.
Trent wanted me to invite you to a join him and other influencers from entertainment, media, private equity, and the investment communities to hear Dr. Richard Pestell, world-renowned oncologist, and Dr. Nader Pourhassan, biotech entrepreneur, at the Hollywood Roosevelt on Thursday, February 28th to discuss an exciting potential new breakthrough in breast cancer treatment.
At this invite-only event, Dr. Pestell, a world-renowned oncologist and researcher in breast cancer, will speak about his important discovery, currently in triple negative breast cancer clinical trial, that has potential to significantly alter the treatment for cancer metastasis.
The space for this event is limited and will be filling up fast, so please RSVP with your name and those of any guests to cytodynevent@gmail.com.
Thursday, February 28, 2019 at 6 pm
The Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel
6-7 pm VIP Reception with complimentary libations and appetizers
7-8 pm Presentation and Q&A by Dr. Richard Pestell and Dr. Nader Pourhassan
8-10 pm Mingling and libations
Attire: Cocktail Attire
The event is free and invite-only
Pro, I’m a very patient person. I’m also very hopeful and will stay the course until the very end. That means I’m not selling period. Feast or famine for me.
Pro- you are really something special. Can’t quite get a clear read on you but I have to say you are like a spiritual being that talks in tongues.
I am numb to this ride having applied my logic for over six years. I have become much less intense and interested with the play by play...I’m just watching to see how the story will actually play out. Regardless I have learned much and it has all been worth it. I look forward to one day meeting the person behind the words.
Yes brman, I know all too well not to get too excited about Mondays CC. I’m hoping that we are in the process of pivoting away from Paulson to greener pastures. Do I believe we will complete that pivot on Monday? No, but I hope to here something of substance that signals a real shift. I’m tired of empty promises yet optimistic we are closing the gap and the tipping point is near.
The only thing that matters right now is replacing Paulson with a deal that brings non dilutive financing. That’s when the party shall begin. A new life so to speak that will break us free from this game of arbitrage and reveal the true market value of Leronlimab.
I patiently await Providence.
“To observe from a centered place of consciousness”. Yes that is the preferred space to be with our walk through this life. Untethered Soul is a great read that has helped me maintain clarity over the long haul with CYDY by blocking out the noise in favor of the facts. The journey continues.
Krish, we are going to find out very soon how damn smart we are. To me it was simple logic...do I believe in this investment or not. So I’m all in. Everything says we win, only question is how big the pay day will be. I’m not greedy or over exuberant. 5x, 10x, 20x, 50x...ok lets get greedy.
Trding, your DD is a huge asset to this board. Keep it coming.
Fines, only you know the reality of your relationships with others on this board and agenda pertaining to CYDY. Hang your hat on that.
From my perspective your micro day to day forecast, and take on the SP leaves you wide open for speculation as to your true intentions and agenda. My take is your a flipper, a shorter at times, but not really a Long. You seem at times to want to be Long but your investor instincts are more about flipping and taking profit because this is your full time occupation-you have to play the percentages.
The difference is most Longs here, myself included have bought into the science and hunkered down. We have bet a sizable chunk and we are in it to win it, to hit the grand slam if you will, and we think we have a damn good shot.
Regardless, you have brought valuable content to the board especially with your detailed market valuation of Leronlimab. Thank you for investing your time
Please, keep on posting Fines, your an asset to this board.
Nice position Luv. I’ll be thinking about you when we cash out:)
I’ve got 500k shares between warrants and shares purchased through the Paulson raises. Never sold a share. I see the end game as a given. Only question is how much and when. Leronlimab isn’t going to be shelved and CYDY isn’t going BK.
eetrog is another know it all that makes, as you say, blanket statements that are pure speculation. He knows very little about the profile of investor that is hunkered down and long. The Paulson game will end and he’s saying we are going to 1B shares doing the same dance. He’s pissing in the wind.
Sounds good Dolphin. It more about the players and company than the wager.
I can’t wait to go to Vegas not because I like Vegas but for the reason we will all be going...and because of that I will play any game this cast dreams up. I’m hoping it’s this year. In addition to getting to know this bunch I’m going to play golf at Shadow Creek and play BJ until I drop.
Yes, that sounds great but I’m cautious about expectations due to Nader’s track record. Show us the $.
I’ll take your analogy. Well said. Let’s trust Nader and Pestell are privy to all the info and better qualified to make such decisions. I think Tony C agreed with us and that explains his absence.
I think the same. Pivotal Mono is at the top of my list as we are so close to the finish line. Cancer is the big prize however Mono is a slam dunk at 700ml and a very big play. Insufficient funds to do it all. Pestell has the lead.
BD, thank you for your post. It is so obvious what is going on here with the SP. At this point in time their are endless cheap shares that will be sold at or near the .50 SP because warrant holders can eliminate 100% of the risk. They don’t care how good it looks it’s a business decision. This has been going on for a very long time and in my opinion will not change until the science is validated with a taker in the form of a partnership or licensing agreement.
I think Nader and Pestell are pushing the projected $480M 2020 revenue card to send a message they will not be froze out by BP. If BP won’t play they’ll figure out a way to monetize without their backing.
In the recent presentation Nader pointed out that BP is not that open to believing Leronlimab is going to disrupt SOC and they are not that friendly or open to doing things differently. Pestell said they are working on better communication with Gilead as past communication has been not where it needs to be.
I don’t think BP, especially Gilead has been taking us seriously. Partly because of Nader’s cowboy unpolished style, but also because they don’t believe Leronlimab is much of a threat until Mono efficacy is proven. Now Pestell is in the game and we are hopefully in the midst of a shift in which we will be taken much more seriously.
We shall see. AIMHO.
Thanks Zuess. Makes sense.