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Current Report Filing (8-k)
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55795608&xref=newsalerttweet
Paul Resnik - Uncommon Equities Report
http://uncommonequities.com/uploads/PEIX_Initial_Report_1-9-13.pdf
Paul Resnik Uncommon Equities
Apr 13, 2012 - "Uncommon Equities, Inc. was not, is not, and will not receive compensation"
Disclosure
Uncommon Equities, Inc. was not, is not, and will not receive compensation for preparing snapshot reports. The analyst and other employees of Uncommon Equities, Inc. are prohibited from buying or selling securities issued by the companies highlighted in snapshot reports except if ownership of such securities preceded the start of such relationship. In this instance, any sale of such securities would be made in compliance with FINRA rules.
http://uncommonequities.com/Flexsteel.html
$1.00 Im Personally Betting It Will Happen
The Analyst Says .97c
Paul Resnik - Uncommon Equities Analyst
Hes Been On the Conf. Call the Last 3 That I Know Of
and Is a Much Better Analyst than Ian from Zacks
Price Target:$0.95
EarningsOutlook
The impact of this year's drought will be felt well into 2013, and we anticipate that Pacific Ethanol will continue to
report losses through the first three quarters of 2013. However, while low volumes and poor margins are likely to be
sustained through next year's first quarter, we believe there could be a pickup in volume as we enter the summer
driving season, both because of increased travel and the need for higher octane for summer blends. With inventories
low and idled plants unlikely to restart until the new crop is in, we believe ethanol prices could begin to firm up. By
the fourth quarter, the new crop will be in. Given the low carry-over from the 2012/2013-crop year, we expect record
acreage of 95 million acres or better will be committed to corn in the 2013 growing season. Assuming, a reasonable
amount of snow fall this winter begins to replenish soil moisture and no repeat of drought conditions, yield per acre
could exceed 160 bushels resulting in a record crop and lower, but not low, corn prices. Furthermore, by late 2013,
California's LCFS could be well along in its implementation. Thus, the fourth quarter could be characterized by higher
volume, firm ethanol prices, lower corn prices and solidly profitable ethanol refining margins.
Our estimates for Pacific Ethanol assume a pick-up in output both for the Company's three operating plants and for
Kinergy's other clients as the new crop becomes available in the fourth quarter. Moreover, with ethanol margins
improving, we believe the Madera facility will be brought back into production in early 2014. We are also anticipating
that corn oil extraction facilities will be put in place for the Boardman plant before year-end 2013 and at the Madera
plant by no later than the third quarter of 2014. We are not anticipating the purchase of the remaining 20% equity
stake in the four plants in 2014, although that remains a possibility. Although Pacific Ethanol's approach to
restructuring the remaining debt due in June 2013 is to be determined, we have decided that this can be achieved
without the issuance of additional equity . Based on these industry and company expectations, we generate revenue
and earnings estimates of $835 million and a loss of $0.17 per share for 2012, $923 million and a loss of $0.03 per
share in 2013, and $975 million and earnings per share of $0.14 in 2014, respectively.
Investment Thesis
We are initiating coverage of Pacific Ethanol with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $0.95, more than one and a half times above the current market price. Pacific Ethanol has had a tumultuous three years, which has included the ceding of ownership in its four operating facilities to creditors. However, the Company has repurchased majority ownership of the plants and still has as its mission to be the leading producer, marketer and distributor of low-carbon
renewable fuels in the Western United States. It seeks to accomplish this by delivering low-cost production and highvalue marketing and utilizing advanced technology. While significant challenges lie ahead, we believe the current market price of the shares substantially undervalues both the current value of the Company’s assets and that of its potential earnings power. In particular, we believe Pacific Ethanol is in a uniquely advantageous position to benefit
from environmentally-based regulations being instituted in California. In our opinion, a number of events that could occur within the next year could result in a higher valuation for the shares: a return to profitability as a normal corn crop brings down corn prices which would widen ethanol production margins, corn oil production at Pacific Ethanol plants, the restarting of the idle Madera facility, the eventual repurchase of the remaining minority interest in the
Company’s four ethanol plants, continuing productivity gains, and the putting into effect of Low Carbon Fuel Standards in California. We recognize that ethanol has been a lightning rod for controversy and has been the target of substantial misinformation. In the Appendix of this report, we will make the case that ethanol does not significantly raise the cost of food, even during drought years, or require more energy to produce than it provides; as well as argue against the
claim that the use of corn to produce ethanol in the United States leads to environmentally harmful indirect land use changes elsewhere. We believe the emergence of ethanol as an automotive fuel has been a boon for the U.S., reducing dependence on oil imports, improving the domestic farm economy, reducing the need for farm subsidies, and creating over 90,000 direct jobs and an estimated more than 300,000 indirect jobs.
Pacific Ethanol - PEIX
http://www.thelion.com/bin/aio_msg.cgi?cmd=search&symbol=PEIX&msg=60&search_type=&esc_keyword=
$PEIX - Amended Statement of Changes in Beneficial Ownership (4/a) http://t.co/F VisualStockR 6 hrs ago
- $PEIX - Amended Statement of Changes in Beneficial Ownership (4/a) http://t.co/h VisualStockR 6 hrs ago
- $PEIX - Amended Statement of Changes in Beneficial Ownership (4/a) http://t.co/5 VisualStockR 6 hrs ago
- $PEIX - Certified Annual Shareholder Report for Management Investment Companies VisualStockR 6 hrs ago
- $PEIX - Amended Statement of Changes in Beneficial Ownership (4/a) http://t.co/J VisualStockR 6 hrs ago
- $PEIX - Mutual Fund Summary Prospectus (497k) http://t.co/GhiQb95o VisualStockR 6 hrs ago
- $PEIX - Amended Statement of Changes in Beneficial Ownership (4/a) http://t.co/c VisualStockR 6 hrs ago
- $PEIX - Definitive Materials Filed by Investment Companies. (497) http://t.co/bu VisualStockR 6 hrs ago
- $PEIX - Amended Statement of Changes in Beneficial Ownership (4/a) http://t.co/1 VisualStockR 6 hrs ago
Definitive Materials Filed by Investment Companies. (497) ?
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/peix/stream
SEC filings Today
FORM 4 Jones William L
Common Stock (Open Market Buy) 12/31/2012 A 15564 (1) A $0.34 318744 D
Common Stock 1/7/2013 A 200000 A $0.00 518744
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736703&xref=newsalerttweet
FORM 4 Kandris Michael D
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736695&xref=newsalerttweet
FORM 4 Kieta Douglas L
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736692&xref=newsalerttweet
AIG Bought Shrs.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736691&xref=newsalerttweet
FORM 4 Layne Larry D
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736683&xref=newsalerttweet
Paladin Long Short Fund Bought Shrs.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736681&xref=newsalerttweet
FORM 4 Prince John L
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736680&xref=newsalerttweet
THE ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN PORTFOLIOS Bought Shrs.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736679&xref=newsalerttweet
FORM 4 STONE TERRY L
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736664&xref=newsalerttweet
FORM 4 KOEHLER NEIL M (Open Market Buy)
311301 (1) A $0.34
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736665&xref=newsalerttweet
Bill Jones and Neil Koehler Bought
Bill Jones and Neil Koehler Bought On the Open Market at .34c On Dec. 31st According to New Filings
FORM 4 Jones William L (Open Market Buy) 15564 shrs. A $0.34 http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736703&xref=newsalerttweet
KOEHLER NEIL M (Open Market Buy) 311301 Shrs. A $0.34
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736665&xref=newsalerttweet
Also,New Institutional Diclosure
THE ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN PORTFOLIOS Bought Shrs.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736679&xref=newsalerttweet
Paladin Long Short Fund Bought Shrs.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736681&xref=newsalerttweet
AIG Bought Shrs.ing to New Filings
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55736691&xref=newsalerttweet
Investers that Loaded Up On PEIX in 6Months
5 accredited investors 25,630,286 shares
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-004591%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C12%5C19%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=8-K&RcvdDate=12%2F19%2F2012&pdf=
Iroquois Capital reports 8.6% passive stake in Pacific Ethanol
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/iroquois-capital-reports-8-6-162406217.html
Capital Ventures reports 9.1% passive stake in Pacific Ethanol
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/capital-ventures-reports-9-1-160433788.html
Insiders Rescent
FORM 4,STONE TERRY L 150000 Shrs.
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-004618%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C12%5C20%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=12%2F20%2F2012&pdf=
FORM 4,Prince John L 150000 Shrs.
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-004617%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C12%5C20%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=12%2F20%2F2012&pdf=
FORM 4,Layne Larry D 150000 Shrs.
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-004616%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C12%5C20%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=12%2F20%2F2012&pdf=
FORM 4,Kieta Douglas L 150000 Shrs.
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-004615%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C12%5C20%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=12%2F20%2F2012&pdf=
FORM 4,Kandris Michael D 150000 Shrs.
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-004614%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C12%5C20%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=12%2F20%2F2012&pdf=
FORM 4,Jones William L 200000 Shrs.
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-004613%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C12%5C20%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=12%2F20%2F2012&pdf=
FORM 4KOEHLER NEIL M
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-002987%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C08%5C27%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=8%2F27%2F2012&pdf=
FORM 4Jones William L
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-002985%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C08%5C27%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=8%2F27%2F2012&pdf=
11% Institutionally Held
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/peix/institutional-holdings
not Insider Buys,but They Are Loaded In
FORM 4,STONE TERRY L 150000 Shrs.
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-004618%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C12%5C20%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=12%2F20%2F2012&pdf=
FORM 4,Prince John L 150000 Shrs.
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-004617%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C12%5C20%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=12%2F20%2F2012&pdf=
FORM 4,Layne Larry D 150000 Shrs.
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-004616%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C12%5C20%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=12%2F20%2F2012&pdf=
FORM 4,Kieta Douglas L 150000 Shrs.
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-004615%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C12%5C20%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=12%2F20%2F2012&pdf=
FORM 4,Kandris Michael D 150000 Shrs.
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-004614%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C12%5C20%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=12%2F20%2F2012&pdf=
FORM 4,Jones William L 200000 Shrs.
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-12-004613%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2012%5C12%5C20%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=4&RcvdDate=12%2F20%2F2012&pdf=
Advanced Biofuel CHP Cogen
Video Says "NO Initial Capital Outlay"
Sounds Like they Finance,Payments are Made with Savings from Utility Bills
3 Year Payback by Savings On Utility Bill
9 Inside buys 1 Sell Last 12 Months
HARDLY Signifigant Inside Selling
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/peix/insider-trades
WRIGHT CHRISTOPHER W Officer 03/01/2012 Sell direct 18,113 1.2300
Corn Oil 10 cents/gal credit for small producers
Congress' deal to avert the so-called fiscal cliff made the biodiesel credit retroactive through 2012. It also included a 10 cents/gal credit for small producers. Both expire December 31, 2013.
http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Oil/6973818
$.40c per Gallon RINs for Milo Advanced Biofuel
Explanation In Aemetis Conference Call
http://www.aemetis.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Aemetis-Business-Update-Conference-Call-2012-12-20.pdf
PEIX Partnering On Cellulosic Plant In visalia CA
http://www.energy.ca.gov/business_meetings/2012_packets/2012-06-13/2012-06-13_Item_08_Edeniq_Inc.pdf
Compiled Information that DIRECTLY Affects PEIX
Key Info from Aemetis/PEIX PR
import costs for grain sorghum (as of Q4 2012) from Argentina – feasible for ethanol plants with access to deepwater ports – is running $0.90 per bushel less than corn.
Potential winners for now? The Aemetis project; Pacific Ethanol (60 mgy ethanol plant located in Stockton, CA); we also like the Pacific Ethanol plant in Boardman
Advanced Biofuels RINs
those RINs are worth $0.40 each, compared to a nominal $0.03 for a corn ethanol RIN. For a reference sized (100 million gallon) ethanol plant, the difference in value is around $37 million, or $0.37 per gallon.
60 mgy corn ethanol plant which imported milo from Argentina in Q4 2012 at a cost savings of about
$0.90 per bushel under corn. We require approximately 22 million bushels per year at capacity, so the milo savings are more than $18 million per year.
Add $18 million to the $24 million per year AB RIN’s, subtract about $8 million for the increased cost of biogas, and the net increase in cash flow is about $34 million per year for the 60 mgy (former) corn ethanol plant
http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bioinvest/the-milo-naires-corn-and-the-invisible-hand-of-the-biofuels-market/
Gov. Ethanol Incentives from Fiscal Cliff Legislation
1. $1.01-per-gallon tax credit for cellulosic ethanol made from corn plants, grasses, algae and sources
other than corn kernels
(Milo/Sorghum Would Be Included)
2. Owners of a renewable energy facility that start construction before the end of 2013 to get a full ten years worth of tax credits
(This Would Include Newly Referbished and Started Madera In 2013)
3. tax credits for biodiesel and renewable diesel have been reinstated for 2012 and 2013
(This Will Affect Corn Oil Extraction at All 4 Plants)
4. Gas stations that want to install pumps capable of distributing E85, which is 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline or those who add 15 percent ethanol —or E15 — pumps also can get a tax credit
under the bill.
5. Biorefinery Assistance program
6. Biobased Markets Program
7. Bioenergy Program for Advanced Biofuels and Biodiesel Fuel Education Program are extended through 2013
8. Biomass Research and Development program
9. Feedstock Flexibility Program for Bioenergy Producers
10. Biomass Crop Assistance Program
11. Forest Biomass for Energy and Community Wood Energy Program through the end of the year.
IR I Will be Talking to Becky Herrick
----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Becky Herrick <BHerrick@lhai.com>
To: Kelly Fitzgerald
Sent: Thursday, January 3, 2013 3:09 PM
Subject: RE: Janice : Pacific Ethanol
Kenneth,
Could we schedule a time to chat tomorrow regarding your questions? I am available from 9am to 11am PT and from 2:30pm to 5pm PT. Please let me know what works best for you.
Regarding the plant tour, I will inform management of your interest and ensure we include you when the next touring opportunity is available.
Becky
Becky Herrick, Vice President
Investor & Media Relations: Results that Matter
T: 415.433.3777 F: 415.433.5577 E: BHerrick@lhai.com
From: Kelly Fitzgerald [mailto:misskellyfitz@yahoo.com]
Sent: Thursday, December 27, 2012 4:30 PM
To: pacificethanol
Subject: Fw: Janice : Pacific Ethanol
----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Kelly Fitzgerald
To: Becky Herrick <BHerrick@lhai.com>
Sent: Wednesday, December 19, 2012 6:17 PM
Subject: Re: Janice : Pacific Ethanol
Hi Becky
My phone # is 949-903-0323
I am Home by 4:30PM Pacific
A group of Investors and myself have Produced some Questions.If Possable,maybe you can have this in front of you when we talk.I will
need to write down the answers,you are able to Answer to email to the
rest of NAS.
One of Our Investors in Our Group Wrote these Questions,and the Rest
of Us added Our 2 cents.
Also,I have a Personal Request
Can I Come On a Walk through with a Worker at the Stockton Plant,as I
Live In CA. and Would Like to See ?
OK here are the Questions Below,I had to Fix it a lil the Writer is
from Europe and Doesn't Translate Well Yet.
As active investors in Pacific Ethanol Inc., we see the dejection on a quarterly loss after quarterly loss, and wondering what can turn the situation into something positive and profitable.
Q4-11 = $ (2,365) million
Q1-12 = $ (5.268) million
Q2-12 = $ (2,944) million
Q3-12 = $ (6,290) million
Q4-12 = $ (xxxxx) million
Through the active research work we do in the NAS - Network of Active Shareholders in Peix, it is clear that the management of Pacific Ethanol believe the situation to be reversed through "diversification" and "installation of new technology" and through the second generation feed-stock Milo, which gives the possibility to produce "Advanced Ethanol".
It is very satisfying for us to observe there are opportunities, and we try to keep up with a positive spirit, and we do expect to see the management take advantage of the opportunities they have to put a positive bottom line on track.
As an investor you expect to get just the minimum of useful information at the presentation of a quarterly financial statement, or an Annual meeting webcast regarding ongoing initiatives that can and must reverse a negative trend, but you get no information from the management, and it is not nearly good enough, and we get no webcast with information from the annual meeting, - that’s a mistake!
We have individually been searching for information via IR, but feel neglected, in that we do not receive answers to questions. Now we adhere together in an attempt to influence the state of things in a positive direction in a positive mood.
There are a number of issues that presses on the answers can help us to better assess our investment. Therefore, this request!
Question number one and two will be about Grain Sorghum (Milo) and Advanced Ethanol.
We know U.S. EPA designates a second generation feedstock, so therefore we have now Milo.
The Environmental Protection Agency has concluded that ethanol made from grain sorghum can qualify as an advanced biofuels if it's made at plants with the proper green technology.
The feedstock offers a 53 percent GHG reduction when used along with advanced process technologies, such as biogas digesters and combined heat and power. This would qualify the fuel as an advanced biofuels under the renewable fuel standard.
We know Neil Koehler has said they worked with CHP in Stockton, and we know it is Biomass fired CHP, and we can see all the Milo is going to Stockton, so what we think is, currently happening Peix economically positive in Stockton with advanced ethanol production, but we do not know about is if Pacific Ethanol is actually producing or is capable of producing Advanced ethanol in Stockton, so that is the question:
Is Pacific Ethanol Manufacturing Advanced ethanol in Stockton, and translating the investment you have made in the CHP into a higher sales price per gallon than traditional corn ethanol per gallon, It would protect the investment in CHP, and it would help earnings towards a better bottom line?
Will Stockton be producing Advanced Biofuels in the near future, if they are not now?
Looking at the initiative to borrow $ 8,500,000 to build an equivalent or greater CHP installation at the Madera plant, it is not small money to produce Advanced Ethanol. We know the attempt was unsuccessful, but how fast will such CHP investment pay back?
And the initiative to import Milo from Argentina, we consider that a good deed, but was it actually an economically a good idea that marched margin significantly in the right direction to a better Q4?
Question 3
Has Pacific Ethanol received more international sorghum than the 30,000 tons they received in October, or more Milo from Texas?, or locally grown from California other than the 40 acres we know of, so the percent of Milo used in Q4 is higher than one third Milo used in Q3?
Another thing that in our research seems to lead to better margins and improved earnings, is the partnership with EdeniQ, and it leads to the next questions.
We will ask about EdeniQ `s Super Cellunator that looks like something that will improve earnings considerably, and can do it quickly, and after how we are informed, is there collaboration with EdeniQ` s Pathway platform (a great tool), not that expensive, licensed and easy to install frontend.
The Super Cellunator and the Pathway enzymes/ yeasts is the way to cellulosic ethanol made from fibers in the corn kernels, and a better ethanol yield, as we understand from E Energy Adams. As we understand things from the workshop august 1, 2012 Aemetis, Calgren & Pacific Ethanol is going to install the technology, but why don’t we get this information as investors, and if you are installing “corn oil extraction”, there will be a better oil yield with Cellunator
Question 4
Will Pacific Ethanol install Super Cellunator and implement the Pathway Platform in their plants to get better bottom-line in the near future, or will Pacific Ethanol not? – We can calculate things to the much better side, and we can calculate the bottom-line black as well … so we really don’t understand. If not!
California imports sugar cane ethanol from Brazil, so they need Advanced and Cellulosic ethanol, and if the Cellunator is used to save feed-stock, it will be a very nice investment.
Question 5
Is the Madera Federal Operating Permit for coming operation, or Standard Permit renewal?
We know the demand for corn ethanol in California is higher than the supply … 95/96 percent of the ethanol used in California, is from out of state // will Pacific Ethanol try to change things, and do it with Aemetis and Calgren? – In this the near future or a bit later?
Question 6
It`s about the same, but different, because it`s coming from me (the writer) from my heart!!
I know about the unemployment situation in Stockton and Madera, and I think if you will get the support from California CEC, they would like a Madera Startup soon, to get the people in work!! – To get some tax from them when they work, and get the money-flow to the farmers and all the beside jobs created, so..
I hope Pacific Ethanol have the BALLS to figure out the shakeout in the Midwest, and will join the shakeout with a Madera Startup … tell me if they are doing it, (they have to do it)! Soon!!
Very Nice Post a8v8t8 New Milo-naires
http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bioinvest/the-milo-naires-corn-and-the-invisible-hand-of-the-biofuels-market/
ethanol industries celebrated a victory Wednesday
The bill allows companies to apply for the credit if they begin construction on a plant in 2013 and finish it by the end of 2014. Earlier versions would have required construction to be finished by the end of the year to qualify for the credit.
Renewing the tax credit results in a loss of an estimated $12 billion in tax revenue over 10 years.
The bill also extends a $1.01-per-gallon tax credit for cellulosic ethanol made from corn plants, grasses, wood and sources other than corn kernels. The bill adds algae as another source material that will be eligible for the tax credit.
Ethanol makers will be allowed to continue to depreciate equipment for new plants placed in service in 2013, and the bill extends biodiesel production tax incentives for two years. Those measures are aimed at encouraging increased production of fuel from renewable sources.
Cellulosic ethanol has been slow to get off the ground after decades of scientific research and development but large-scale plants are now under construction in several states including Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Mississippi.
Renewal of the credits that encourage investment in new plants is important for the industry to continue to grow, said Bob Dineen, CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, a trade group.
"Everybody would like to have longer extensions for tax policy because one thing investors need to see is certainty," Dineen said. "A one-year extension isn't great, but it does provide some measure of certainty that government support is going to continue while there's a longer debate about what to do about overall tax policy."
Gas stations that want to install pumps capable of distributing E85, which is 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline or those who add 15 percent ethanol —or E15 — pumps also can get a tax credit under the bill.
___
Associated Press reporter Ken Kusmer
full ten years worth of tax credits
allows owners of a renewable energy facility that start construction before the end of 2013 to get a full ten years worth of tax credits
http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/01/02/fiscal-cliff-deal-business-tax-breaks-survive-another-year/
Pic
javascript:;
Here Is a Pic Of His Trip By Madera
You can see the managers black truck in the photo today. The service truck was located in the center of the plant and not visible in this photo.
http://us-mg5.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launch?.rand=1071620804&action=showLetter&umid=2_0_0_1_859805_AM5XimIAAOqFUOJdMg8baGfflpw&box=Inbox#mail
My Friend Drove by Madera Today
Dec. 31 2012
this Is What He Said
"That's the most activity that I have seen in the last couple of months. Seems like they were trying to conceal the service truck"
hes Been Driving By Once a Week
He Also Said this
"One more thing. It will take about 3 months once they truly get going opening."
Coincides Pretty Good With This
"we expect a large amount of lower-cost imported milo will be available starting in March 2013 from the harvest"
http://www.aemetis.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Aemetis-Business-Update-Conference-Call-2012-12-20.pdf
Wet Distiller Grains 65%
excluding the revenue that can be pocketed from the sale of dried distillers’ grains,producers are losing 31 cents on each gallon
data collected by Bloomberg
WDGS $83 to $112 per Ton,CA. Is a lil More
http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswethanol.pdf
According to AEMETIS Conf. Callhttp://www.aemetis.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Aemetis-Business-Update-Conference-Call-2012-12-20.pdf
Imported Argentina Milo .90c Cheaper than Corn for Stockton Plant at 1/3 Ratio
.90c/2.8 Gal per Bushel = .321c
.321c per Gallon Produced with Milo
1/3 Milo to 2/3 Corn
.321c/3 = 10.71 c per Gallon
Cheaper Ethanol at Stockton Plant = .1071c per Gallon
Stockton at 83% Running Capacity from Slow Down = 12.45MG
12.45MG x .1071c = $1,333,395.00
______________________________________________________________
1/3 Of Corn Cost Recovered by DDGS
1/10th for WDGS
$6.93/10 = $0.693c
$0.693c/2.8 Gallons = .2475c
Milo $ for Stockton per Gallon = .1071
Stockton milo $ Amongst the 3 Plants
.1071c/3 = .0357
.0357 milo $ + WDGS .2475c = .2832c
.285c Covered by WDGS and Milo
_______________________________
That Is being Conservative with
WDGS Revenue at 10% Of Corn,Much More are Produced than DDGS
because the Water is Not Dried Out.
Wet Distiller Grains are 65% Water
Could be 11%,12% or 13% Of Corn Price
I Work for
Los Angles Dept. Of Water and Power
Im an Electrical Mechanic
I Make On Average from Working There $110,000.00
and Im The Older One In This Picture If It Posts
https://twitter.com/misskellyfitz
Milo .90c Cheaper for Stockton Plant = $1,333,395.00
Imported Argentina Milo .90c Cheaper than Corn for Stockton Plant = $1,333,395.00
1. Imported Argentina Milo .90c Cheaper than Corn for Stockton Plant at 1/3 Ratio
.90c/2.8 Gal per Bushel = .321c
.321c per Gallon Produced with Milo
1/3 Milo to 2/3 Corn
.321c/3 = 10.71 c per Gallon
Cheaper Ethanol at Stockton Plant = .1071c per Gallon
Stockton at 83% Running Capacity from Slow Down = 12.45MG
12.45MG x .1071c = $1,333,395.00
_______________________________________________________
Margins Are Better In Q4 than Q3
3rd Quarter Corn Vs Ethanol
Ethanol is Aprox. 5% Lower than Corn the Majority Of Q3
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZCH13&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=M&sd=07%2F02%2F2012&ed=09%2F28%2F2012&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=2&g=1&pct=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=ZKF13&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=08%2F31%2F2012#jump
----------------------------------------
4th Quarter Corn Vs Ethanol
Ethanol is 2% Lower than Corn Average Q4
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZCH13&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=M&sd=10%2F01%2F2012&ed=12%2F31%2F2012&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=2&g=1&pct=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=ZKF13&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=09%2F28%2F2012#jump
.05c Loss In Q3 Should be Cut In Half just Using Corn
that Would Mean a .025c Loss per Shr. in Q4
then Factor In
1.Improve the balance sheet and operations by reducing financing costs
(I Really Don't Know What This Is Worth per Shr.)
2.And Maybe ~ D5 RINs for Stockton Plant per Year $24 Million per Year
(the Same as Keyes $24 Million per Year)
$24 Million/4 Quarters
= $6 Million
Another $6 Million from RINs Would Be Great !!!
I Think Its a Done Deal,We Go Positive this Quarter
EASY COMPS All Year,Here Is Q4
~ Analyst Estimate - .06c for Q4 2012
~ Year Over Year 2011 Q4 loss of $2.4 Million
~ Quarter Over Qaurter Q3 2012 Loss of $2.4 million
Need Some Cost Advantages this Quarter
excluding the revenue that can be pocketed from the sale of dried distillers’ grains, a byproduct of ethanol production
ethanol producers are losing 30 cents on each gallon of the fuel made, up from 28 cents yesterday
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-28/ethanol-gasoline-discount-falls-on-tight-biofuel-supply.html
Corn Vs Ethanol Chart
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZKF13&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=M&sd=07%2F01%2F2011&ed=12%2F28%2F2012&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=2&g=1&pct=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=ZCH13&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
WDGS Pocket Money
Pacific Ethanol agrees to use Mascoma engineered yeast product = .02c per Gallon
Magic Valley Corn Oil 12 million pounds $4.5 million or seven cents per gallon
Stockton Corn Oil 12 million pounds $4.5 Million or seven cents per Gallon
D5 RINs for Stockton Plant per Year $24 Million per Year
(the Same as Keyes $24 Million per Year)
Imported Milo .90c Lower than Corn
3rd Party Gallons Increase because of Plant Openings
Carbon Credits $17.50
Improve the balance sheet and operations by reducing financing costs
Gov. Incentives ($1.00 per Gallon TAX credits)
EASY COMPS All Year,Here Is Q4
~ Analyst Estimate - .06c for Q4 2012
~ Year Over Year 2011 Q4 loss of $2.4 Million
~ Quarter Over Qaurter Comp The company lost $2.4 million in the
third quarter 2012
aemetis Conf. Call
Imported Milo .90c Lower than Corn
"With a capacity of 60 million gallons per year at the Keyes plant, a $0.40 per gallon Advanced Biofuel RIN could potentially provide an increase of $24 million per year in cash flow."
"we expect a large amount of lower-cost imported milo will be available starting in March 2013 from the harvest"
Average Efficiency Gained per Quarter Of 1.325%
March 31, 2012 -3.78%
June 30, 2012 -2.38%
Sept. 30, 2012 -1.13%
Sept. 30, 2012 -1.13%
+ Average Efficiency Gained per Quarter Of 1.325%
= +.195 % for Q4 2012
Final Fedral Operating Permits Stockton and Madera
Stockton Navy Drive Stockton, Dec.13th Final Operating Permit
http://www.valleyair.org/notices/Docs/2012/10-29-12%20(N-1112157)/Public%20Notice%20Package.pdf
https://www.valleyair.org/notices/Docs/2012/12-13-12%20(N-1112157)/Public%20Notice%20Package.pdf
Madera 31470 Avenue 12 Madera Dec. 10th Final Operating Permit
http://www.valleyair.org/notices/Docs/2012/10-29-12%20(C-1111919)/Public%20Notice%20Package.pdf
http://www.valleyair.org/notices/Docs/2012/12-10-12%20(C-1111919)/Public%20Notice%20Package.pdf
Madera Final Fedral Operating Permit Signed Dec.10
Kelly Fitzgerald
$PEIX MADERA OPENING http://t.co/t79uZeLh http://t.co/LMbDdbSc via @YahooFinance
FINAL Fedral Permit for Madera to Open
Peliminary Signed Oct. 29th
http://www.valleyair.org/notices/Docs/2012/10-29-12%20(C-1111919)/Public%20Notice%20Package.pdf
Final Permit Dec. 10th
http://www.valleyair.org/notices/Docs/2012/12-10-12%20(C-1111919)/Public%20Notice%20Package.pdf
Average Efficiency Gained per Quarter Of 1.325%
March 31, 2012 -3.78%
June 30, 2012 -2.38%
Sept. 30, 2012 -1.13%
Sept. 30, 2012 -1.13%
+ Average Efficiency Gained per Quarter Of 1.325%
= +.195 % for Q4 2012
The Trend Continues
Since Q1 Pacific Ethanol has Gained by Cost Efficiency by 2.65% an Average Of 1.325% per Quarter.
increasing its ownership interest to 80% in the plants
Pacific Ethanol agrees to use Mascoma engineered yeast product = .02c per Gallon
Magic Valley Corn Oil 12 million pounds $4.5 million or seven cents per gallon
Stockton Corn Oil 12 million pounds $4.5 Million or seven cents per Gallon
D5 RINs for Stockton Plant per Year $24 Million per Year
(the Same as Keyes $24 Million per Year)
Imported Milo .90c Lower than Corn
3rd Party Gallons Increase because of Plant Openings
Carbon Credits $17.50 per credit
Improve the balance sheet and operations by reducing financing costs
Gov. Incentives ($1.00 per Gallon TAX credits)
In response to poor market conditions for ethanol,Neil Koehler took steps to make the Sacramento producer of low-carbon renewable fuels more efficient. Pacific Ethanol obtained a controlling interest in
its four ethanol production facilities by acquiring an additional ownership in New PE Holdco LLC, used Imported sorghum for approximately 30% of the feedstock for Signifigant Cost Savings,Adopted Corn Oil Extraction in its Plant,Began Using Mascoma engineered yeast product to Improve Yeild.........
I See Profit Coming,Because Of These Things
excluding the revenue that can be pocketed from the sale of dried distillers’ grains ethanol, producers are losing 28 cents on each gallon of the fuel Is HANDLEY COVERED By the Following.
WDGS Pocket Money
Pacific Ethanol agrees to use Mascoma engineered yeast product = .02c per Gallon
Magic Valley Corn Oil 12 million pounds $4.5 million or seven cents per gallon
Stockton Corn Oil 12 million pounds $4.5 Million or seven cents per Gallon
D5 RINs for Stockton Plant per Year $24 Million per Year
(the Same as Keyes $24 Million per Year)
Imported Milo .90c Lower than Corn
3rd Party Gallons Increase because of Plant Openings
Carbon Credits $17.50
Improve the balance sheet and operations by reducing financing costs
Gov. Incentives ($1.00 per Gallon TAX credits)
EASY COMPS All Year,Here Is Q4
~ Analyst Estimate - .06c for Q4 2012
~ Year Over Year 2011 Q4 loss of $2.4 Million
~ Quarter Over Qaurter Comp The company lost $2.4 million in the
third quarter 2012
aemetis Conf. Call
Imported Milo .90c Lower than Corn
"With a capacity of 60 million gallons per year at the Keyes plant, a $0.40 per gallon Advanced Biofuel RIN could potentially provide an increase of $24 million per year in cash flow."
"we expect a large amount of lower-cost imported milo will be available starting in March 2013 from the harvest"
Just Wondering If the EPA Will Allow AdvacedBiofuel
(It Says ethanol producers may qualify as advanced biofuel producers and qualify for financial incentives.)
the aemetis Conf. Call Also Seemed like EPA
was Holding It Up
http://www.aemetis.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Aemetis-Business-Update-Conference-Call-2012-12-20.pdf
this article Also Seems Like EPA is Holding It Up
http://epoverviews.com/articles/visitor.php?keyword=Ethanol
Pacific Ethanol uses Chromatin California-Grown Sorghum in Ethanol Production (Ind. Report)
Chromatin Inc,Pacific Ethanol
Date: 2012-12-07
Chicago-based Chromatin Inc. reports that it's seeds have generated the first crop of sorghum grown by L&R Mussi Farms of Stockton, California. The crop was grown specifically for, and used for ethanol production by, Pacific Ethanol, Inc.
Ethanol producers in California and elsewhere have been seeking an alternative to corn to reduce feedstock costs, improve their carbon footprint, and to source feedstock from locally grown energy-efficient crops. By using sorghum grain, ethanol producers may qualify as advanced biofuel producers and qualify for financial incentives.
According to Pacific Ethanol president Neil Koehler, Pacific Ethanol used sorghum for approximately 30% of the feedstock at our Stockton plant during the third quarter. (Source: Chromatin, Pacific Ethanol, Biofuels Bus. Quarterly, 5 Dec., 2012) Contact: Chromatin Inc., Contact: Chromatin Inc., David Jessen, CEO, (312) 235-3610, www.chromatininc.com; Pacific Ethanol, Paul Koehler, Pres, (503) 235-8241, paulk@pacificethanol.net, www.pacificethanol.net
2.15M Exclusive Offering to Series B Preferred Stock Holders
Prospectus
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=55600395&xref=newsalerttweet
aemetis Conf. Call
Imported Milo .90c Lower than Corn,them & 2 Other CA. Producers
http://www.aemetis.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Aemetis-Business-Update-Conference-Call-2012-12-20.pdf
and RINs Talked About