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CMG - has turned out well ... up 20% in about 2 weeks, which is pretty good for a large cap!
VSEC - I'm terrible at recalling my own DD, but --other than the favorable valuation -- I recall the insider buys.
http://www.openinsider.com/search?q=vsec
Keep in mind these are government contracts which carries risk... of course, if you join in would be great add this to the index!
And I have not forgotten about SAN ... I have had zero time recently to really sit down and digest the details but it is on my list.
Thanks Malc ... HURC and VSEC are amoung my small cap value stocks that probably the safest bets in trying to outperform the market with minimal (or at least reasonable) risk.
Since the market did not react at all to the news, I purchased more VSEC today.
What evidence do you have that a chart pattern is predictive of long-term share price? We already looked at facebook which invalidated your theory ... do we need to repeat that again?
I'm all ears if you want to get into a rational discussion ... and it would be helpful if you would answer my question what is the ONE must compelling evidence... it is very hard to discuss when the subject keeps changing ... also makes you seem a bit disingenous.
To reference anecdotal heresay in place of clinical evidence is very mis-leading and borderline dishonest.
VSEC - $100Million contract announced after hours! Market cap $122M ... so seems quite a contract!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vse-awarded-99m-contract-support-214600700.html
Having a party over here! One of the best days in my portfolio in a long time...!
Very nice!! And yes, if business goes as indicated by mgmt, we are just getting started!
PLSB - is Green Baron a paid promoter? Anyone heard of these guys?
"Today, The Green Baron Report is initiating coverage of The Pulse Beverage Corporation (OTCQB: PLSB) as our 109th Green Baron “Stock Pick” since inception. “Stock Picks” represent our strongest level of coverage and we suggest members accumulate the stock as close to our profile price as possible. Results compiled from the most recent trade prior to dissemination of this report to the subsequent high will be closely monitored at The Green Baron and through email updates to members. We have very aggressive price projections for PLSB and believe the stock has huge upside potential based on several positive fundamental factors."
PLSB 15%!! Officially a double!!
(Is that a one-bagger or a two-bagger!!?)
ADXS 22%!!
We are flying today!!
PLSB up another 7%... I'm almost a double but I sold my trading shares a while back and news is pending ... guess I'll hold!
INO up 6%, ADXS up 15%, SAN nearly 4% ... great day!
EXMGF/MIN.V - News. Although Exselsior under-performed last year, we'll know a lot more this year ... hoping this investment was a case of being ahead of the curve again!
Excelsior Mining Corp.: Hydrology Tests Confirm Suitable Conditions for In-Situ Recovery at Gunnison
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/excelsior-mining-corp-hydrology-tests-113000502.html
And we are back to the beggining! If I'm hearing correctly, you are saying from a quick glance at a chart you can be certain of long-term fundamentals of a company?
Do I mis-understand?
I guess your logic makes sense if you are the greatest investor of all time! I don't know of any other such investor that can have such accurate foresight by looking at the chart!! All finance PHD's must be complete fools for missing your insight. To think of all the trouble of learning complex matrix alegebra such as a GARCH model (I should know)... and even those models predict only volatility and only to a limited degree. And to think of all the time Warren Buffet wasted meeting with senior executives!!
Really, what are you doing here? Show the world your technique and Warren Buffet will look like an amateur in comparison!
New Aura video out ... very, uhm, sensual!! (Who else is looking forward to Part II of the video!?)
On the bright side ... once NTEK becomes 75 bagger, your comment won't have the same effect.
Touche!
yawn .... we only talk about 50 baggers here (lol!)
Damn! I wanted to look at this one over the weekend, but no time ... seems already like a very good call!!
Well I'm glad you concede that your post in-and-of-itself provides no evidence of what you claim.
Of everything you've listed in all these posts, if you had to pick *one specific* issue where you have the strongest evidence (that you could post here) which issue would it be?
So now you are going to put the onus on me to go back and count message board posts and sift through which claims are verifiable vs false. How the heck am I supposed to do all that work? Why should I do all this work when you have already done it?! Please share your analysis!! (Or was your claim made for no reason?)
You are the one making the claim that there was this huge spike in mis-leading information on the message boards, so the onus is one you to provide the evidence.
And previously you made the claim that the chart pattern itself was bearish, but you posted no evidence to substantiate that claim either ...
'For every fact there is an infinity of hypotheses' - Robert Pirisg.
Yes, those are two scenarios but the imagination is infinite.
Post some links/evidence as to this supposed flood of paid message board pumpers (with supposedly false/exaggerated/misleading details by definition) and I'm all ears ... if you're going to try to imagine all these scenarios, without backing up your claims, you could just as easily imagine bullish claims!
Again, without evidence to backup your claims, there seems to be quite a strong bias! I don't think anyone is being fooled!
Europe is down big in general today (I heard on the radio), so I'm pretty sure that's driving SAN.
HDGE is supposed to go up when the market is down!
HDGE - how can this be down today?!! I've made some $$$ on the options, but very disappointing.
EORBF - Signs partnership ... another good sign!
http://www.stockhouse.com/news/canadianreleasesdetail.aspx?n=8727479
Veolia Environmental Services operates in 30+ countries so this is potentially another big catalyst not included in my previous DD.
Thanks a lot!! ... I appreciate how you've reaally thought everything through.
With VRSEF being a 50-bagger I'll consider these bios a more conservative part of the progressive portfolio (just 10-20 baggers) ... lol!
Hi Malc -- I had a quick few minutes to read Harley's article but have to run ... I really want to get to this and will try the next few days ... at least the stock stabilized Friday.
Thanks for the article! I had picked up a little NWBO but after reading this I'm more comfortable. (After missing out on INO, I did not want the same to occur.)
I was curious about one thing ... if DCVAX-l is proven effective (NWBO) but ICT-107 is proven *more* effective, could NWBO be crowded out of the market or is there plenty of room for both treatments? (I know that DCVAX-l could potentially have a larger base but I'm curious about within the population of folks that might be eligibile for both.)
(This might be a basic question, but I'm still learning the sector and had always wondered the importance of competitive landscape when reseraching these companies ... this is one of the more difficult areas of DD as I don't know of any easy way to learn about competition ... )
Also, I'm going to read the link provided in the article why phase III results often fail (for oncology)... I had previously posted a related article ... this is important for evaluating what kind of test designs, approaches, etc are more likely to be successful.
http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2012/04/06/jnci.djs180.full
EORBF/ORT.TO - ok, finally had a chance to do some deeper DD! The main points (1) that this Quebec miner has patented extraction process allowing much greater cost-effectiveness and 'greener' process (2) commercial production just coming online.
Catalyst 1. HPA (high purity alumina) plants already paid with cash and have already started production just this year. As per analyst presentaion, forecast $400M revenue in 2013. Can produce at 'a fraction of the cost of competitors'. A main cost saving is avoidance of overseas shipping costs to North America. This business alone could be worth the current marketcap.
http://research.jacobsecurities.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ORT-November-23-2011-Initiating-Coverage-JSI2.pdf
Catalyst 2. SGA (Smelter Grade Alumina). This is the more profitable business. Feasibility study due 1H 2013. Have already signed Signed MOUs with RUSAL (a top global aluminum producer) and NALCO as potential JV partners. Details not finalized here. Per PEA, depending on price, $7Billion NPV!! (investor presentation slide (2) operations/production are just coming online.
http://www.orbitealuminae.com/media/upload/whitepapers/Orbite_Corporate_Presentation_2.pdf
Catalyst 3. Their patented process may be liscensed to other miners including Rare Earth (not sure if for heavy or not) to significantly reduce CAPEX, OPEX, and better for the environment as no red mud residue (slide 21 in investor presentation has more details.
Of course, I was burned on AMY (similar disruptive technology) but Orbite seems safer as they are already going into prodcution ... to me this looks like you get the HPA business and a free lotto ticket on SGA and liscensiing (which have already passed pilot plant / pre-feasibility studies).
Add the credibility of Rusal, and this looks pretty good! Fully diluted market cap about $500M.
Any and all opinions, positive and negative, welcomed!
Thank you sir .. I'll take a look later this weekend.
1. I was talking about recent FB volume, but -- touche -- you are a smart debator to subtly changed the topic to the IPO. (Thus, you avoided my critique ... well not really.)
2. Even if you want to switch the debate to the IPO (which is not really applicable as FB -- unlike VRS -- plunged during the time of high volume), FB has since fully recovered!! Kind of contradicts your conclusion!? After the high-volume sell-off, it was a *great* time to invest in facebook!! Thus, your indicator is a buy, not a sell, signal!
It seems you have little statistical modelling background so perhaps some study help you formulate more logical conclusions?
If you have no confidence great, but -- I'll say it again -- unless you can provide some empirical evidence to backup your claim (that the chart provides evidence that the long-term fundamentals are poor), it seems like you are biased selectively interpretting the chart in a way to 'support' your conclusion/agenda rather that applying genuine knowledge.
Since you have no posting history, fail to recognize any positives of the company, make up silly arguments that they're halting the stock to announce every sale, it seems pretty obvious you are not being reasonable.
Fortunately, no one is fooled here. I'm actually tempted to buy more shares because of your posts.
1. I was talking about recent FB volume, but -- touche -- you are a smart debator to subtly change the topic to the IPO. (Thus, you avoided my critique ... well not really.)
2. Even if you want to switch the debate to the IPO (which is not really applicable as FB -- unlike VRS -- plunged during the time of high volume), FB has since fully recovered!! Kind of contradicts your conclusion!? After the high-volume sell-off, it was a *great* time to invest in facebook!!
What is your statistical modelling background? I would have failed my classes with such logic.
If you have no confidence great, but -- I'll say it again -- unless you can provide some empirical evidence to backup your claim (that the chart provides evidence that the long-term fundamentals are poor) it seems like you are making stuff up to 'support' your claims.
Since you have no posting history, fail to recognize any positives of the company, make up silly arguments that they're halting the stock for everysale, it seems pretty obvious you are not being reasonable.
Fortunately, no one is fooled here. I'm actually tempted to buy more shares because of your posts.
Kind of quiet here given all the upcoming developments! I'm just doing my DD and have a couple questions if anyone would be kind enough to answer.
1. Assuming the very worst-case scenario (I'm not saying its likely) are there any estimates of the value of only HPA production (not SGA).
2. Assuming that the technology is lucrative, are there any estimates to the value of the liscensing? I'm trying to understand whether or not SGA or liscensing is bigger opportunity.
Thanks in advance for any assistance ... I'm looking to load up some shares but still getting my head around the risk/reward scenarios.
EORBF- have you checked that one out? ANOTHER one I have not had time to post DD ... and not sure anyone here would have time to investigate anyway. If the baby would change his own diapers and put himself to sleep I'd be more caught up here!!
I think it started running before they showed up and did not run at all when they first showed up ... there was huge volume yesterday that I don't think was driven by those clowns ... but guess I don't know.
The next Q or 2 -- good or bad -- should provide some good indication. The company has set specific targets and believes they are on track so let's see...
You already confirmed your volume approach does not apply to other stocks (your comments about Facebook), so I don't see the relevance of applying it here.
If you can explain/establish more generally while your volume approach is meaningful, then we can apply it here more specifically. Otherwise, it looks like you are just trying to pick an approach that justifies your conclusion (biased approach)verus making your conclusion based on a verified approach (unbiased approach).
It's so easy to see through your biasd reasoning. I' not even sure Facebook has warrants to churn through which makes your reasoning more rediculous.
Up to those damn tricks again? Makes me sick! That's why the stock has not gone down today ... insiders would surely be selling!
Pfft.
Canadian ticker is up a bit today ... insiders don't seem to be selling at these higher prices ... stockman must be regaining some confidence today ... lol!
SAN - I started looking at this last night Malc, but did not have the time to finish so I'll comment more hopefully this weekend.
However, I think I/we might have misunderstood loss provisions. At first I thought they were good as conservatively setting aside funds against future losses. However, loss provisions are not just 'setting aside additional $$$ for a rainy day' but, rather, need to be replenished against current write-offs*. Thus, the key metric seems to be change in the ratio of loss provisions and/or the *incremental* provisions that have been set aside or accumulated versus the previous year.
As I said, I have not finished investigating, but perhaps you know this stuff already so it would be good to hear your thoughts. As backup I have a link but it's on another computer and I don't have time to find it right now.
* On the income statement, a write-off is expensed as a reduction in loss provisions ... if I understand correctly, there is no separate line item for 'write-offs' separate to loss provisions, which is the source of my previous mis-understanding (I think).
"Stock halts are for material events not everytime you get an order"
That's rediculous. There is a huge difference between another order and -- after years of product development and testing -- a company's very first order.
If they halt trading for every new order then we'll talk. Otherwise, this is very mis-leading and certainly makes you seem a bit biased, to say the least.