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I think a 5:1 forward split, once it has done what it is intended to do, could subsequently be reversed. However, a subsequent reverse split may be counter-productive in promoting a strong retail base of shareholders. Retail participation may be enhanced by having more shares at a more affordable price.
Management may not agree with that. They have worked very hard to maximize shareholder value by maintaining a conservative number of Outstanding Shares. I appreciate that, and I would be fine with fewer shares in the OS. I just think it may be a function of demand, and if retail feels priced-out of the market.
"WHO recommends prioritising XBB variants in development of new COVID shots"
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/who-recommends-focusing-on-xbb-variants-in-development-of-new-covid-vaccine-101684425394196.html
The FDA's vaccine advisory panel is expected to follow suit today.
"June 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) staff reviewers said on Monday that updated COVID-19 vaccine boosters should target XBB subvariants for the 2023-2024 vaccination campaign.
The COVID vaccination campaign should feature a monovalent vaccine targeting either the XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, or XBB.2.3, the staff reviewers said, ahead of a meeting of the FDA's panel of independent experts on Thursday."
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/updated-covid-vaccines-need-to-target-xbb-subvariants-u.s.-fda-staff
No consideration is given to do what Humanigen has done, to produce a variant-agnostic treatment.
Focus is on perpetuating an annual revenue stream for Big Pharma, since it is not likely that small cap biotechs can afford to develop a new vaccine every year.
Humanigen's lenz, and especially if they collaborate with Novavax, can turn the revenue spigot off for the Big Pharma vaccines.
(I hate using this little text box to compose a message).
It's been two weeks now with no reported short sale volume being reported by
http://shortvolumes.com/?t=HGEN
and our float is just below our OS.
Has a buy-in been negotiated?
There aren't enough shares to have allowed delivery to close out open short sales even at a 1:1 basis, let alone at the 5:1 basis I suspect to see with a forward stock split.
I want to see a short squeeze. How is this going to play out?
This patent award is like the news of the ACTIV-5 Quality Review you shared with us. Successful conclusions (yes, I view the ACTIV-5 results as successful, since that trial included patients on mechanical ventilation and ECMO, and excluded the patient group that showed the best results in the LIVE-AIR trial), finally getting regulatory benefit from the years of time and resources that management had expended on these objectives. I'm keeping my $8.5B market cap estimate, and with a decent stockpile order, I think we could easily exceed that level.
The third component of the lenz cocktail, besides lenz and a vaccine, is an anti-viral. I don't have a problem continuing to use remdesivir, especially for lower respiratory tract infections. That's because, as I think we see in our newly-granted patent, lenz improves the efficacy of the active therapeutic. But I would certainly not be opposed to seeing us use Innovation's brilacidin, especially for upper respiratory tract infections. My preference would be to use brilacidin exclusively, if it would work with lenz in the lower respiratory tract. However, we did see remdesivir improve our LIVE-AIR trial results from a Hazard Ratio of ~ 3.0, up to ~3.4.
I'm seeing incredible focus by management on executing their strategy to regain Nasdaq compliance. Of course, they need to succeed, but I couldn't be happier with our direction, and their success will far surpass almost anything shareholders can envision.
Thank you for the link, hotstock. I think the information was remarkably well-timed as the discussion here, at least for me, has centered on using the lenz/vaccine/anti-viral cocktail as a pre- or post-exposure prophylaxis, which was exactly what Geert recommended as the type of proactive virulent response plan that we need, but do not have.
Just when the skies were starting to clear over New Jersey, Cam and Dale start smoking the tires in their Humanengine.
Novavax may not be our merger partner, since they are not a privately held pharmaceutical company. But their subsidiaries AB or CZ could be candidates. I'll be glad to see what SC&H have been cooking up with management. I just think there's a real opportunity here for Humanigen and Novavax, and one of their subsidiaries. Maybe my pro-Novavax bias is just kicking in.
I brought up the subject of a partnership because it was mentioned in the post to which I was replying. But I actually think that our CMML news could be conducive to a partnership. In fact, a partnership may even be conditional based on the trial outcomes.
In addition, I think that Humanigen could even benefit from the right partnership, as could the partner. PCI and Novavax are prime examples of mutually beneficial partnerships. I would love to have an equity stake in the CDMO that is making our drugs, giving us a greater degree of manufacturing control and CMC compliance. And we could benefit exceedingly well by expanding our patient population to asymptomatic, non-hospitalized individuals who are trying to prevent becoming infected, in countries all around the world where a potential partner has already established a network of regulatory contacts and previous approvals.
I think management is going to smoke the tires when they get into gear. Probably the thing I would most like to see, if not now, then soon, is an advanced purchase agreement for a government stockpile of lenz for covid, and long covid. If I see such news before my open sell orders are filled, I will cancel my lowest priced sell orders.
If we get a squeeze, news of an advanced purchase agreement may not yield as much retracement from the high we could see in that squeeze. Almost certainly, though, if I sold some shares at <$10, stockpile news would not allow me to re-enter in that low price.
Welcome to the room, horselover45.
I hope that trial data from both the PREACH-M and the ACTIV-5 trials will be used to supplement the safety and efficacy levels for lenz that the FDA wants to see, to award our EUA for covid, in addition to obtaining approval from Australia to treat CMML, and maybe even get a Priority Review Voucher.
If a partnership is a fallback position for management, I'd hate to see them forced into it. But the keystone is the regulatory approval/authorization we need to commercialize lenz.
I'm excited about management's execution of their Nasdaq compliance plan.
That's a question I was all over when I was in SpongeTech. And it's relevant here, to be sure. But it's not my concern at this point. There's something about letting millions of people die needlessly that represents a higher priority for me. They don't deserve to die, anymore than my wife did, just to protect Big Pharmas' revenue, especially threatened by the expiration of several of their patents.
Besides, Yooo, with the design of our share structure, with restricted Cede shares held in nominee accounts by insiders, it would not be possible to answer your question without a copy of the transfer journal, along with a database I designed to track Cede shares.
How do you like the name "HumaNova" (copyright) for a cocktail? Just asking.
I've already shown the reason why I think the company may control 127M shares of the 119M shares they have issued. You probably missed seeing the drastic reduction in the float overnight, in addition to not considering the drastic increase in the float previously demonstrated. I think those shares have to be in the company's control, unless you can offer some other explanation that explains the float fluctuating as it has. But, "dilution" would not be the answer, not if the company controls more shares than they have issued.
And I think I may have stumbled upon something by mentioning Novavax again. I remember saying that I thought a shot of Nuvaxovid (or whatever it's called in the States), and lenz, might prove to be the most efficient treatment to control covid. And with our patented lenz/vaccine/anti-viral cocktail, Novavax could be the perfect partner for getting lenz into the worldwide market as a pre- or post-exposure prophylaxis. Novavax and Humanigen could own the covid preventive market. And lenz could also be used to reduce inflammation, and save, those patients who already have covid.
I've got a hot water heater like that. That's the only reason for my lowest priced sell order.
Look at the cake in the oven, 5 minutes after you started to bake it.
With lenz showing a sustained reduction in inflammatory markers in the PREACH-M study, to include a >three-fold reduction in CRP levels, even after 6 months, that efficacy data should be included in the resubmission of our EUA application for covid.
Great news, JA3!! Thanks for sharing.
Congratulations to management and the trial investigators!
I decided to change my exit strategy by adding a second sell order at $100. Schwab wouldn't accept $150, or $145.
When I haven't seen any short volume being reported for the last five days, and I no longer see evidence of 110M excess shares in our float, it gets me curious.
http://shortvolumes.com/?t=HGEN
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/humanigen-HGEN/financials
Novavax has always presented tremendous synergy for Humanigen, in my opinion.
I believe that now, more than ever. Their vaccine had been approved for use in over 170 countries. But their product, like their Big Pharma competitors' products, have lost efficacy in treating the mutating covid virus. Their regulatory authorizations all over the world could be reinstated, if their vaccine is used in the lenz cocktail.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/10/novavax-ceo-covid-vaccine-could-be-cleared-in-multiple-countries-soon.html
And Novavax and Humanigen both have compelling reason to jointly collaborate.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/novavax-destined-be-little-engine-couldnt
Besides, when the two products are administered with an anti-viral, the world will finally have a therapeutic cocktail that will be effective against future mutations of the virus, and will give the companies absolute control of the covid market.
I get a sense that management is eager to put into motion their carefully-crafted strategic initiatives, not to move this company forward, but to BLAST us forward. Fire away, guys!
We know that positive safety and efficacy data from ACTIV-5 will be sent to the UK's MHRA, and perhaps to Europe's EMA. But France and Normandy, in particular, seemed interested in lenz. And maybe supportive ACTIV-5 data will get Humanigen to re-engage with Cenexi.
There's just a lot to do, including in Australia, and perhaps only about 3 weeks to get it done, or at least to begin getting regulatory approval from somewhere.
Of course, a successful short squeeze, to wring those 110M air shares out of our market, will relieve the company's financial burden. It may even restore my financial constraints, and graduate me from a life of existence, back to one of normalcy.
I have always said that I use trading profits to supplement my fixed income, and I also discussed my exit strategy. I have 3/5ths of my shares for sell now, and I would love to add the other 2/5ths for sell, if we get to $200 (or $40 post split, if that happens). I'll actually still have a small number of shares, and I will look to re-enter buy orders once I see where price settles in. I also want to make sure that management retains 60% of control if we merge, which I think they plan to do.
The extension of time that Nasdaq allowed for management to regain compliance with listing standards speaks to the superior caliber of our management. Adding that lenz is the sole effective therapeutic to save lives threatened by new variants puts us in a first in class treatment option, and I will always maintain a position here.
According to these two sites, at the time I was then posting the information they contained, the data was obviously being updated.
"SHARE INFORMATION
Market Cap $ 17,028,459
Shares Outstanding 119,080,135
Float 118,880,000
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/humanigen-HGEN/financials
Market Cap Shares in Issue Float
$ 16.67M 119.08M 229.16M
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/humanigen-HGEN/stock-price"
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172084129
The 1st link indicated an updated float of 118,800,000 shares, while the second link still reflected a float of 229.16M shares. The float data in the second link has now been updated to also reflect a float of 118.88M.
Market cap reflects the Outstanding Shares x PPS. It is not based on the float.
A 5:1 forward split, which I suspect we could see, will increase the share data by 5x, but will not add one cent to the Market Cap. I have to watch my open orders to sell some shares if we do split. Schwab may cancel those open orders, instead of adding 5x to the shares I'm trying to sell, and by reducing the sell price by 5x.
Or you can just brag about management's drastic overnight performance improvement, since the float has been drastically reduced. Somehow, I don't think you will do that.
It's hard to tell how good the movie is, when you're looking at still shots.
Maybe our part of the D-Day anniversary attack will bode well for us in Normandy, and the rest of France.
SHARE INFORMATION
Market Cap $ 17,028,459
Shares Outstanding 119,080,135
Float 118,880,000
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/humanigen-HGEN/financials
Market Cap Shares in Issue Float
$ 16.67M 119.08M 229.16M
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/humanigen-HGEN/stock-price
You follow the PPS, and I'll follow the float.
I didn't really like this post I wrote Monday, that I'm replying to now. I think I'm off-base. I tried to establish a basis for my position today, and just trashed the post I had written. The unsettling question I have regards whether the company even sold any of the shares they issued at all, after the initial Original Issuance of Shares (OIS). And it appears that the shares sold to seed the market have been repurchased by the company.
So the company is holding more shares than they have issued, and the transfer journal could actually show those OIS shares deposited into the company account, and left there undisturbed without any withdrawls. But even in this scenario, where was the clearing firm in this process? Or were they not required, because the shares were not issued in certificate form?
Hopefully, it's a moot point, except for the consternation it causes me. The only things I'm fairly sure about are that the company is holding about 8 million more shares than they have issued, and that there are 110M more shares in the market than the company issued. And I can't see where brokerages were able to locate the shares they loaned, so that would make those sells naked shorts. I don't think they would benefit from a forward split, so that would require the purchase of 5 shares to cover every one share they sold.
And the float has just now been dropped to 118,880,000, nowhere near enough to cover the naked shorts.
It's pretty much impossible for me to figure this out, as it should be. I just hope the bid gets run up (in the morning?) before the market opens.
I just noticed, no short volume reported for 3 days now.
http://shortvolumes.com/?t=HGEN
"The Volume and short volume are limited. It is not including all volumes from all Market...
Last 5 days short percent 39.16%
Last 10 days short percent 47.88%
Last 20 days short percent 48.97%
Last 50 days short percent 50.31%"
http://shortvolumes.com/?t=HGEN
This is a big roll of the dice for NVAX.
"Novavax exec says its new COVID shot should work against variants on the rise"
https://www.yahoo.com/news/novavax-exec-says-covid-shot-223133572.html
I've been a big fan of Novavax, and I hope this new vaccine will work for them.
But still, is that any way to run a business? Will the same guessing game be successful for next year? Or even for variants that will evolve this year?
I hope Humanigen gets a chance to develop and commercialize their lenz/vaccine/anti-viral product. It would be valuable to have lenz approved as a pre- or post-exposure prophylactic.
Maybe we'll see some equity funding measures from the company, allowing them to sell additional shares into the market. They may just resume their open Controlled Equity Offering, or they might expand it to allow for the sell of more shares. Or perhaps they will announce a Public Offering.
Or maybe they could sell most of the 127M shares they have that are in the market, without a prospectus ever allowing 110M of those shares into the market. And I think they'll increase the number of available shares for sell by announcing a 5:1 forward split.
And after those 110M shares are split into 550M shares, the purchaser, forced into buying those shares, will be holding zero shares.
I need to give it more thought, but I don't expect you to quit complaining about how many shares insiders are selling...and then to not even question how our float increased from 102M to 229M shares. It should be obvious that those insider "sells" had to have been transfers.
If I'm way off base, I hope this post won't be given more consideration than it's due.
Pigs get fed, and hogs get slaughtered. And I think hogs have now become an endangered species on the HGEN farm.
We're very similar in terms of what drew us here, and what has kept us here. Although, my chief interest has been in regards to the abuse of discretionary authority by government agencies.
It takes a lot of managerial skill to navigate in this environment, and I am a fan of how I think management is proceeding, even as bloodied as they are.
The reality, though, is that there really is something to this talk of government "by the people." They can't keep everything out of search databases, or out of reach of court orders.
I think management will prevail, and that lenz will be there to save millions of lives in future pandemics, as well as in oncology and in a host of other indications. I hoped to see the trigger pulled last week, and I will hope for the same in the coming week(s).
Thank you for your PM on this subject, Doc.
I'm not a big fan of FBI Director Wray, but I believe it was in Congressional testimony that Wray commented on the millions of covid deaths caused by regulatory interference (to include hiding the lab leak) just in the United States. He did not misspeak, because he repeated his comment in the same way.
But, at last report in March, Johns Hopkins only reported 1.1M US covid deaths.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
So yes, deaths may be due to ventilator associated infection, or encephalitis, or any of a number of covid-associated indications, so Wray may have been right in reporting multiple millions of US covid deaths.
Clearly, as you say, ARDS cytokine storm is the prime COD, however it manifests, and in my opinion, NIAID/NIH was negligent in including patients already on IMV and ECMO into the ACTIV-5 trial. Yet, even there, I think we saw better outcomes in those severe and critical patients than was reported for Paxlovid in their FDA approval, though neither trial showed statistically significant improvement for those late stage patients. At least it appears that survival was better improved in ACTIV-5, than in the EPIC-SR trial.
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-oral-antiviral-treatment-covid-19-adults
Thank you, sosjtb. I share and appreciate your interest in this regard. Insider activity only accounts for about 446K shares in that reportable time frame. So I don't know what may have accounted for the interest at that time. I didn't comment on it in real-time, either.
Of course, what will be our most important trading could be related to pending news. Let's hope for the best.
You're talking about cause of death of ventilated patients. It's not as surprising that inflammation may not be the primary cause of death for those patients.
But inflammation is still the primary cause of death in covid patients. If those patients progress to ventilation with viral pneumonia, and are then subjected to bacterial pneumonia, patients could very well die without developing multi-organ failure.
Avoiding the ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia is the key to saving patients from lethal infection. Management was on-point in selecting SWOV as the primary endpoint.
I haven't learned enough about this Schwab trading platform to provide historical data in support of what you say, but I remember some impossible volumes on occasion.
And, by memory, I think the extended hours for retailers to be able to trade are from 7am - 8pm Eastern. I use GTC+ext (good till cancelled, plus extended hours) on almost all of my orders, to both buy and sell.
Volume can be affected by transferring shares from one account to another. It doesn't always actually represent the trading of those shares. As far as I know, we're staying off the FTD list, so I haven't focused too much on Failures to Deliver. Between NIAID, the NIH, NASDAQ, and the FDA, I've got enough to focus on without adding the SEC back into the mix. But it would always be nice to know more than we do.
I'm getting pretty excited to see how things unfold here.
Actually, ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia is all the more reason that our EUA should be approved, since the primary endpoint, which we met in LIVE-AIR, was Survival Without Ventilation (SWOV).
I was pleasantly surprised to discover that Schwab accepted two sell orders, one ",,,in the single dollar range (<$10)," as well as a sell order at $100. They would not accept the $200 sell price, so I may have to be at the computer to enter that, should I be able to do so.
But a squeeze could be extremely short-lived, lasting no more than minutes before the computers kick in. And it was reassuring to know that I might catch the spike with my "GTC+ext" sell order, even if I'm not at the computer during a price spike.
Also, I was glad to see the company make note of Twitter poster 'gloriacain's' post, at it may relate to the, "...ACTIV-5 study, which is expected to reveal early biomarker data."
The Paxlovid approval actually gave me reason to think that the ACTIV-5 ratios >1 in treating severe and critical patients may be viewed favorably, even if not statistically significant. This is especially true if the data shows sustained reductions in cytokine levels.