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Back to cash...
Depending on where we close, I'll take about a 1% loss from last Monday's entry.
I still think we bounce, but I ain't happy the way I played the trade. Back to the foxhole to re-group.
When I went into the meeting...
At 1:30CST, the Dow was only down 24 points and the SPYders only traded 29 million shares. Pretty weak. An hour later, there was only 34 million SPYders traded, but the Dow was down 76. I figured no big deal, light volume, I'm staying in.
I get home to see 48.6 million on the SPY. That's not good and it may not bode well for Monday as well. I guess I over stayed my welcome in the market while the denmo6 is on the sell signal. I'm still green on my trade, but half my gains were wiped out today.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]jaclyiay[d10][p][vc60][j13015407,y]&l...
Just trying to figure out what their going to do. Play the break of either the top pink line or the bottom pink line.
Greasy Greenspan...
If Grasso got $140-$190 million, what will Big Al get?
Wall Street at it's worst...
I was pretty thoroughly disgusted with today's events.
I've noted in the past that I feel Wall Street is filled with sharks and if you want to swim there, be careful. I've also noted that I feel Wall Street is the biggest collection of liars cheats and thieves ever amassed.
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The short term charts told me Monday this market is going higher. I'm still in and I still feel this market is going higher. I could be wrong and if I am, it won't be the first time, nor will it be the last time. Also, keep in mind that another reason for choosing to ride it out is the fact that I'm comfortably in the green from Monday's entry.
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The thing that really pissed me off was the timing of the rumor that came out regarding Osama's # 2 guy being cornered or captured.
There is a saying that all gaps in the charts get filled and yesterday's opening gap up left a huge gap in all the charts.
As this morning's market developed, I made mention of the fact that it was coming down on low volume which is bullish. Take a look at this chart and you can see that the rumor was released right when the gap got closed.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=20666&u=denmo83&a=denmo's%20charts&id=239
Many weak hands got shook out at the low today and it's Wall Street's way of saying we got you again.
Staying long. eom.
Yesterday I said that I felt today''s volume would hold the key.
We started out the day light:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=5337960
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=5338138&usernm=denmo83
Then edged slightly ahead of yesterday''s pace until the rumor came out:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=5338760&usernm=denmo83
Yes, I do...
So far, so good. No changes today as I'm still 100% long. The lower volume today was a concern and as the denmo6 remains on the sell, I'm in this current trade with one foot firmly out the door.
A couple of scenarios are:
That we pullback on light volume. That would be ok for the bulls. Further advance on heavier volume would also be ok for the bulls.
Further advance on light volume would have the bears drooling and a drop on very heavy volume would have me exiting the trade.
Tomorrow's volume should hold the key.
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The top of the Nasdaq down trend channel comes in at about 2040ish, which leaves us with plenty of more upside from today's 1976 close.
=====================
A quick look at the S&P500 fibonacci retracement levels show that we re-traced exactly 38.2% of the move down. That means we may resume the down trend. If we continue higher, the next target would be the 50% retracement which falls in at 1133:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]jaclyiay[d15][p][vc60][j13015407,y]&l...
It helps to have Wall Street wired into my pc. eom.
It will...
and I'm still long.
Back in, 100% long!
Sweet!
Since my exit on Feb.20th,
the Dow dropped 516 points
the Nasdaq dropped 99 points
and the S&P 500 dropped 40 points.
All in at today's close with a 25% allocation each to PQNAX, PTAAX, RYLPX and VERDX.
I'm only looking for a nice bounce due to the positive divergence on both the 30 minute and 60 minute charts. The daily candle also dropped out the bottom of the bollinger bands. Wednesday is a turn date, but keep in mind those turn dates are +/- a day so maybe we turn tomorrow. Either way, the market dropped 4.5% without me.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID345695
The denmo6 remains on the sell signal, therefore my attitude is quite different than when it's on the buy signal. I'm going in and I need to get out ASAP. Odds favor the downside so I'll need to be swift. I'm not supposed to be in according to the denmo6.
If you guys keep up with the compliments...
I'll keep coming back. Remember, I said I'm easy.
With the increase in volume, to me, it has become apparent that this selloff is more than just a little selloff. The downtrend in volume was decisively broken yesterday and today exceeded yesterday's downside volume.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]daclyiay[db][pc13!c20!c50!c200!d20,2][vc60][...
There will be some kind of bounce coming as nothing rises or falls in a straight line. It may come tomorrow as the price fell out the bottom of the bollinger bands. Keep in mind that it doesn't necessarily have to bounce upwards to get back inside the bollinger bands. A day or 2 sideways would do the trick.
For now, I'm remaining in the foxhole, in cash.
What we do need to watch for is, after the bounce, how the market reacts. Specifically, the volume. If it tests wherever the bottom lies on dramatically decreased volume, that would set up positive divergence on the short term charts. For right now, on the short term charts, the MACD is confirming this drop with the MACD following the price down.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]eaclyyay[d40][p][vc60][iua12,26,9!lp14,3,3][...
Hi M!!!
To me, it's textbook and Husky has it right.
We were in an uptrend channel dating back to last July. We broke down out of it in a well defined down channel. If we're going to tag the lower blue trendline, that equates to around 1940-1950. It all depends how fast they take it down. As each day passes, that lower channel moves lower as well.
Note the volume that increased on the way down to and through the bottom of the pink channel last month. Then note the weak volume rally of the last week to back test the channel.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=19996&u=denmo83&a=denmo's%20charts&id=239
IMO, we tank from here, but like Husky said, if we break out the top of the blue down trend channel and back into the pink uptrend channel, that would be bullish. In order to accomplish that, it will need BIG VOLUME. Follow the money trail(volume). It's as big as dragon tracks.
If I was God...
Think about all those women that would be screaming my name. Thanks, but no thanks. I've got enough to handle without that hangin' over me. LOL.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=5254398
All out, back to cash...
Cha-Ching!
Ring up another green trade!
Back in cash from my Feb.4th entry.
Why do they insist on kicking me in the teeth every time I skate out the door with their loot?!? LOL.
Or maybe not! LOL. eom.
I'd respond a little quicker if you use the "n"...
LOL, just kidding.
We've got an ascending triangle on the SPX with an 1180 target:
Ascending triangle
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]faclyyay[d15][p][vc60][iua12,26,9!lp14,3,3][...
---denmo83
m_winston...
My main concerns are 401k/retirement accounts(I'm 43 years old).
I manage not only my own, but my Mom's and sister's and a friend's accounts as well. I predominately use mutual funds. I only trade the long side as I can't short or leverage with them. I use Nasdaq related funds. PQNAX, PTAAX, RYLPX, SSRAX VERDX are my faves from my 401k. My 401k is up 81% in the last 19 months and I can't wait 'til I get better. I mean that. I get my fair share, but I occasionally miss some.
My Roth IRA's are self-directed and hold my gold miners. I set that up quite a while back and don't trade it.
The trading account is set up where I can trade stocks or options. I find stocks from the Nasdaq. I experimented with options last year and I'm not ready to go 100% to options yet. I'm still learning there.
I participate in a great game of Survivor Island. There a lot of good stock pickers that play. It's a great place for ideas. The main thing I like to look for is positive or negative divergences in the indicators.
http://www.atomicbobs.com/index.php?board=4
This week, I chose SNDK. Positive divergence was the key, not only on the daily chart, but more importantly on the 60 minute chart. It was a gimmie. Thanks to LT for bringing it to my attention.
I avoid bulletin board stocks.
Yes. eom.
Lana taylor...
Holy smokes! SNDK is down 25.00 a share!!!
Post split that is. LOL.
Sorry for the late response. It hit 27.30 after the split which relects a 54.60 price.
I don't know that I'd hold it any later than tomorrow as tomorrow is the turn.
m_winston...
Flattery will get you everywhere. LOL.
I follow the SPX for direction, then trade the Nasdaq for it's higher volatility.
LanaTaylor...
When SNDK dropped below 53.20, take a look at the higher MACD.
That's positive divergence and the stock will move higher. Not knowing your "in" price, all I can say is that higher prices are coming to SNDK at a theater near you very soon.
Clever...
Very funny and true!
Still 100% long...
From a week ago.
m_winston...
Brinker calls it a watermelon smile! LOL.
The trick now is to get out with the loot. The denmo6/daily remains on the buy. The 60 minute predicted and is confirming today's move. My intentions are to hold over the weekend, but keep in mind I'm playing with the houses money from the last 2 days.
The volume today isn't great, but it is 6:1 in favor of the bulls.
Is everybody happy? eom.
You are all to kind...
I'm just a regular guy who got his feelings hurt 4 years ago when they popped the bubble with me in it. Now I'm pizzed! LOL.
100% long at the close...
With the denmo6/daily still on the buy, the Nasdaq 60 minute has a bullish falling wedge and positive divergence.
Back in long from my 2100 exit.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=18984&u=denmo83&a=denmo's%20charts&id=239
Starshine...
1155.4
How's dat for government work! LOL.
I'm waiting for the RSI(14) to breech the 50(dotted line) before I can call it an official sell signal. With 5 out of 6 on the sell, it won't take that much more weakness.
making_ground...
If I'm home, I do try and post real-time.
I hate to bring up that 4 letter word, but I was at "work" yesterday and couldn't access the web.
m_winston...
Thanks!
If they ever find the wire to my joystick that's connected to Wall Street, my house will get raided. LOL.
I'd like to see them take it down hard next week on declining volume. I think the S&P500 still has a date with 1160.
I moved back to 100% cash at the close...
The Nasdaq has been out the top of the bollinger bands 4 days in a row. The 13ema is 78 points below. It needs to touch it. It's been 11 days since the price has tagged the 13ema. That is a long time without touching the 13ema:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daclyiay[db][pc13!d20,2][vc60][iUa12,26,9!...
Back in March of last year...
I felt we put in a significant bottom. What an understatement!
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=4197239&usernm=denmo83
Now I'm watching SPX 1160. It's the 50% retracement of the bear market plunge:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]maclyiay[d19900101,20031211][p][vc60][ild20!...
This chart is the 9th chart on my list and it's live so we can watch it unfold as we approach 1160.
If we get there, I will be taking profits as it's an area that will not be breeched on the 1st attempt if at all.
SCO up 11%...
So far, so good.
My thoughts on gold...
I've been long on gold for quite some time as some of you know:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=5066511