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Someone will be wrong...
I don't do cycles or e-waves, just TA with indicators and trend lines.
mr_cash seems to feel we're directly in front of a nice rally as do I.
Am I reading the e-wave guys right that you're looking for a tankage? TIA.
Zeev Hed re: nice Monday...
Are you looking for a nice Monday on the long side? TIA.
Nope...
Just itchin' to front run it. Everything looks good.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=5966285
No changes. Still holding long positions opened at SPX 1109.
============================================
At this point with the S&P500 trading at 1091, the denmo6 has re-triggered an "official" buy signal:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]daclyiay[db][pc13!c20!c50!c200!d20,2][vc60][...
Keep in mind that it is a daily time frame chart and the closing numbers are what matters.
=========================
The Nasdaq chart I drew up recently is working great. The Nasdaq bounced off the lower trendline and 38.2% fibonacci last Thursday. The top of this channel comes in at roughly Nasdaq 2400. The Nasdaq fell from 5132 down to 1108 before beginning it's bounce. While the SPX retraced 50% of it's bear market fall to 1163, the Nasdaq has yet to achieve the first major fib retrace of 38.2%. That Nasdaq 38.2% retrace comes in at 2645. With the Nasdaq dropping from 2154 this past January on low volume, this is why I remain so bullish, even though my latest traded moved against me:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]dacayiay[df][pf][vc60][iua12,26,9!lp14,3,3...
=========================
Although the volume is still relatively speaking weak, none the less, it is rising on this latest move up:
http://www.ttrader.com/stockchat/pace.php
The last move up at the end of July came on falling volume and the move up didn't hold:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daclyiay[da][p][vc60][iUa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=spx,uu[h,a]daclyiay[da][p][vc60][iUa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&am...
If we can close with better that 1.4 billion shares trading on the Nasdaq, that will be considered positive.
=========================
---Dennis
chris3403...
I've changed the chart to linear and I've added an uptrend line stemming from the bear market low:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]dacayiay[d20010401,20040813][pf][vc60][iua...
If this chart is true, the 80 week low is in.
chris3403...
Try this simple little test.
Print out this chart and compare the 2, 20% purple rectangles I drew up. They are equal, which explains why the chart distorts as it goes higher.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=25545&u=denmo83&a=denmo's%20charts&id=239
I'm not a math wiz, but it is obvious to me that is intentionally built that way. I suppose there is a reason for this and I will e-mail Chip over at Stockcharts to get a more thorough explanation.
chris3403...
I'm thinking bullish:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daclyiay[d20010401,20040813][p][vc60][iua1...
Thanks Chuck!
I know some people insist on finding "free" sites to do their charting and I went that route as well a few years ago, but I never did find a site that I like as much as stockcharts. I spend 1.50 a day for their service, while other people spend 5.00 a day for cigarettes. I like my return much better. LOL.
Chuck703VA...
I've been a subscriber for a few years. I have the premium service. I just renewed my subscription recently. I have only excellent comments regarding stockcharts.com's service. I strongly recommend them.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID345695
Thanks airedale. eom.
airedale88...
You said "if my analysis is correct and we are headed into an important 80,40,20,10,and 5 wk nest of lows".
I'm trying to keep up with your cycle analysis, because anything that has to do with the market interests me. I really like when my traditional TA and your cycles line up. It gives me greater confidence to make the trade,
If you dont mind, do you have a date in mind for that important nest of lows? TIA.
Chart test...
Thanks!
How do I post a chart...
As opposed to a link? TIA.
Also, thanks for the refresh tip in regards to charts being overshadowed by the ad.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]maclyiay[d19900101,20040608][p][vc60][ild20!...
TL Trader...
Wow, nice to meet you.
I've seen your work on the mycharts@ttrader.com site. Quite often I might add.
I didn't think I'd ever get to thank you. Your work is impressive. Thanks for sharing it.
Back to cash at the close. eom.
making_ground...
I'm still all in on the long side since May 12th and the denmo6 re-triggered a buy signal on May 25th:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=5560893&usernm=denmo83
I was fortunate enough to catch the YTD bottom.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX,uu[h,a]daclyiay[dc][p][vc60][iUa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&a...
The volume this year has been tapering down since January. Sooner or later, it will increase and then we will know the true trend. Until they show their hand, all we can do is play the shorter term charts. Currently, the 60 minute charts have negative divergence:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]eaclyyay[d40][p][vc60][iua12,26,9!lp14,3,3][...
I've got the downtrend line overhead on the SPX at 1135ish. For the Nasdaq, the downtrend line is at 2020. These need to be broken to the upside with volume. I think they will. We have positive divergence on the Dow, Nasdaq and SPX daily time frames.
When I scribble on charts, I store my better ones here:
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display_album.php?id=239
jwg re: monthly election years...
After 5 completed months, they appear to be bucking the trend.
Your graph has January up and March up(big), while February down, April down and May(big) down.
In reality, we've had Jan., Feb. and May up, March and April down.
They history was bucked big time in Feb., March and May.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX,uu[h,a]maclynay[dc][p][J13015407,Y]&pref=G
If the Republicans want for more years of Bush, they need to follow history and rally this market and create more jobs(oh yea, they did that today). If a guy is out of work and watching his investments shrink, he'll find the time to vote against Bush.
RE: Sinclair...
He had some great calls last year, but everytime there has been a significant dip, he's missed it. If he's as good as he thinks he is, he should have seen this coming. Rather, he stands on the tree stump yelling at the selling fools. I guess that's what one should do when one misses a move. Blame someone else.
As far as the indicators go...
I can't build a clock, but I can tell what time it is by looking at it.
Same with the indicators.
On the CCI(20), above zero is positive, below is negative.
On the ADX(12), I use the gren and red crossover.
On the MACD, I use the black and blue(fast and slow) crossover.
And on the RSI(14), above 50 is positive, below in negative.
This is the jist of my favorite set-up.
Using Friday's 5 minute NDX chart, 6 points were gained from 11:00 to 1:15:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[h,a]iaclynay[d1][p][ild20!ll12!la12,26,9!lb14][J...
I add the CCI(60) and slow stochastic, as well as bollinger bands and ma's to the SPX daily time frame and call it the denmo6:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]daclyiay[db][pc13!c20!c50!c200!d20,2][vc60][...
When I draw trendlines, keep in mind that you need to tag 3 points or more to create a trend line. Otherwise you can connect any 2 points and call it a trend line. The more time a line gets tagged, the more important the trend line becomes.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=8012&u=denmo83&a=denmo's%20charts&id=239
Check out this gold MACD trendline and see if you can spot when the 22 year gold bear market ended:
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=8101&u=denmo83&a=denmo's%20charts&id=239
See what happens when I get started. LOL. Enjoy.
m_winston...
I've never used FA. As my interests in the markets has evolved, I've grown to only trade via TA.
This is not to say I won't ever make a bad trade(case in point, my current underwater 401k trade). However, I will say the denmo6 did not fail me. I was on vacation when the latest buy signal triggered. My late entry is what has me underwater. The trade is still open, so let's see how it ends come the next denmo6 sell signal. The denmo6 buy signal was triggered at SPX1127.
As for TA only good for short term trading, I don't agree with that. It all depends on the time frame of the charts in question. I can use a 5 minute chart for a day trade, using the CCI, MACD, ADX and RSI, or I can use the 30/60 minute charts for swinging using just the MACD neg/pos divergences.
The chart below shows the last 1 year worth of denmo6 buy and sell signals and they are done using a "daily" time frame:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX,uu[w,a]daclyiay[dd][p][vc60][J17828600,Y]&pr...
While I understand that some people have success trading moving average crossovers, I don't trade the crossovers. I do have ma's on my main denmo6 chart, but they're on there to show me support and resistance:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]daclyiay[db][pc13!c20!c50!c200!d20,2][vc60][...
My NOVT was strictly because of the positive divergence between the MACD and price.
Stockcharts has a great tutorial and the MACD has 4 parts to it. A must read/study for anyone interested in trading via TA.
http://stockcharts.com/education/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_MACD1.html
I can go on and on 'cause this is my passion. I'll have to stop here.
m_winston...
The SPX/denmo6 is hanging in there. Trouble this week was that I trade the Nasdaq funds in our 401k and "normally", the Nasdaq will run the same race as the SPX.
The %changes for the week: SML -1.75, MID -1.61, S&P -0.41, NDX -2.45, SMH -5.82, IBB -0.28, XAU -6.34, TLT -1.73, IYR -3.48, energies XLE 3.39 and OIH 3.66, XLF -2.24, IYH 2.56, Dowutes -2.3, XNG 2.4 (numbers taken from dww's cs post) show while the S&P was up .41% for the week, the NDX was down 2.41% for the week. Dang! My golds got spanked as well.
I'm staying the course and holding all longs with the premise that the SPX/d6 won't let me get to hurt.
NOVT was my pick this week and it gained 3.5% for the week. I think it can climb up to 4.25 before resistence sets in:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=NOVT,uu[h,a]daclyiay[dc][pc13!c50][vc60][iUa12,26,9!Lp14...
m_winston...
SPX up 5.77
Not bad(for a start)!
My 2 cents...
The denmo6 went on the buy at SPX 1127 and remains on the buy. With the positive divergence on the 30 minute chart, I say we're going up.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]faclyyay[d10][p][vc60][iua12,26,9!lp14,3,3][...
Somebody please inform the Nasdaq of this situation because I've gotten torched a wee little bit and I'm just a little bit out of sorts about it. Thanks!
Regarding HUI...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$HUI,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dd][p][vc60][iua12,26,9!ld20!ld60!l...
PMFBI, this is just my 2 cents.
Dan Norcini on the latest COT:
Houston's Dan Norcini:
The Silver Commitments is pretty amazing. I was under the impression that the funds were driving the silver market since that is what is being regularly reported in the wire feed stories. Lo and Behold, this past week the long funds were actually getting out and reducing their long positions while the short funds were adding to theirs. It looks like some of them must have taken some money off the table when silver spiked 850 on Friday, April 2.
All in all we had total fund selling of some 4000+ silver contracts thru Tuesday.
What is more interesting is that in the last two weeks we have seen a reduction (not much - roughly 2500 contracts - but a reduction nonetheless) in the commercial short category. It appears that some in that category are throwing in the towel or at least beginning to lighten. It could very well be that the gig is coming to an end in there and the rats are thinking about abandoning ship. This could turn out to be an extremely important inflection point in silver. If the commercial perma-shorts begin to cover in quantity it will portend tremendous upside for silver. The question will then be, who will sell to them on the way up? Silver will have to run to a price that actually clears the market and where that price is, is anyone's guess.
Open interest still continues to rise in the Silver pit and any funds that were long and got out were replaced by small specs and new commercial longs. I personally would like to see the funds continue to add to their longs as that would betoken continued fund interest and commitment to silver. One of the indicators that copper was slowing its recent ascent was the reduction in the fund long positions in there. Apparantly, some of them decided that the copper rally had been so good to them that they had better take some money off the table. When they did, some of the would-be shorts who were looking for a short term advantage tagged the market pretty good and drove it back down for a brief, but hard correction. It has recovered considerably since then but has yet to better its yearly high. We will have to see if the same pattern develops in silver or if the investment demand for the metal is too strong to allow even a setback of any depth.
In regards to gold - really nothing to say except "Groundhog Day." Same ol', same ol'. The commercial category sold some 18,000 contracts this week including the commercial longs who sold off some positions and the cartel which continues to flaunt its elitist attitude that declares the gold market to be its own private sand box. The goons added 11,348 brand new shorts! Again, the bulk of the selling is due to this category. Apparantly some of the small specs are becoming born again Prechterites as they put on new shorts by a 2.5 : 1 ratio of shorts to longs. Still, in the general scheme of things their selling is neglible compared to the cartel. Once again we see the same thing we have seen for years now. Without the constant, never ending selling of the gold cabal, the gold price would have soared long ago.
I challenge any of the naysayers who continue their asinine denial of the facts by dismissing GATA and its supporters as a bunch of kooks and conspiracy nuts to state the reasons that the commercial short category continues to pile short upon short when the vast majority of the mining industry is moving or has moved to a "no-hedge" policy or at the bare minimum reducing the size of their hedge book. Let them declare the reason that the bullion bank cartel of Morgan, Goldman, et al, have for bona fide short hedges of this magnitude. The simple truth is that there is none. The only reason these by now "obscene" short positions continue to escalate is to slow the rise in the price of gold so as to avoid drawing the attention of the public and the excitement that would inevitably follow. Translation - it is for rigging the price of gold. That is the only reason and anyone who denies that is best ignored and relegated to the category of archaic and incompetent and forfeits the right to any credibility in regards to gold in my opinion.
Dan Norcini
dnorcini@earthlink.net
Lake 0f the Ozarks...
My in-laws are just off the lake. Really spectacular views. Quite hilly with many valleys down to the lake. Hafta stay off highway "W". It's a great short cut to town, but everyone gets seasick on that road. No kidding.
making_ground...
I thought I had a good entry on March 15th
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2607596
Only to get shaken out a week later for a 1% loss.
Then vacation came and I missed the move. Thankfully they backed up the train a bit for me to latch on.
I've got a bajillion excuses, just gimmie a few minutes and I'll come up with some more. LOL. Now lets make some $$$!
True story here.
I was on vacation and when I returned, I found that the S&P500 re-triggered the buy signal while I was away.
Being as smart as I am(heavy giggle and a couple of yuk yuks), I figured it would be better to get re-acclimated with the markets than to just jump right in.
Big mistake, it ran up without me. So I needed to find my entry.
We had a couple of down days on lower volume, so I'm thinking today was as good a day as any, but jumping in mid-cycle has it's disadvantages.
Anyhow, I showed my 13 year old daughter where the denmo6 was this afternoon and her response was "get in. If it's going to come back down, it'll take you out right away".
How's that for a re-entry story. She has no fear yet of getting thrashed by the sharks on Wall Street and if she continues to follow the system, she'll be set for life.
I've done my job.
VickiL...
I got on the right path when I was directed to the technical indicators that can accompany a chart.
Such as the MACD, stochastics, RSI, CCI, ADX.
Stockcharts has a pretty good tutorial section called chart school.
http://stockcharts.com/education/
It's a great place to start if technical analysis is what you're looking to learn about. Put MACD in the search window and it will take you to where you can read about the MACD. There are 4 sections to the MACD. Personally, I think it gets 4 sections because it's pretty important. That can be debated, which is why message boards were created. LOL.
Buying long the close. eom.
Regarding GE...
I monitor GE for some friends on the RB GE board.
On page 2 of my list of charts, you'll find 2 charts for GE.
The 2nd GE chart shows the buy and sell signals dating back the last 6 months. They got an official buy signal on Monday, but I use shorter term charts get me closer to the tops and bottoms.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID345695
Regarding YHOO...
YHOO's fib retracements are:
38.2% = 47.21
50% = 46.05
61.8% = 44.88
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=21360&u=denmo83&a=denmo's%20charts&id=239
As for the S&P500:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[h,a]eaclyyay[d30][p][vc60][iua12,26,9!lp14,3,3][...
Thanks for the new board...
I appreciate the effort.
Hi Starshine...
The denmo6 did register a buy last Tuesday while I was on vacation:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=5379232&usernm=denmo83
making_ground...
I'm going out of town for a bit and so long as my system is on the sell, I'm staying in cash. Nice one day pop, but we were pretty oversold and it was due. This was the continuation of what I wanted last week. It didn't work out for me this time. That's the markets for ya. It'll take a couple more days like this to put the denmo6 back on the buy. 1 day ain't a trend change. When the d6 goes back on the buy, I'll be quite aggressive on the long side as usual.
Sure wish I could have gotten some of today's move though.
MSGI...
You got that right!
Next time I pull the trigger quicker, even if it means leaving some on the table. The denmo6(SPX) remains on the sell.
The denmo6(Nasdaq) has been on the sell since January.