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A clear and honest PR would not necessarily ensure the stockholders would have a good Christmas. "Where ignorance is bliss, 'Tis folly to be wise".
Don't worry, there is very little chance of good news leaking out.
I'm sorry to say I have to disagree with you. I think the probability of obtaining funding to drill is less than 2% i.e. about the probability of testable oil being encountered even if Bellevue were drilled.
No it wasn't. No it isn't. They aren't and they are? It already has.
It's ridiculous for them to be talking $200 million when $20 million would suffice and be somewhat more realistic. There ain't no Santa Claus.
The Bellevue top hole drilled by Spauldings was cased off to 234 metres so it would be quite all right to re-enter. The section 234-273 metres was apparently not cased but since it is drilled in hard, tight dolerite it will probably have held up okay. If some degradation then likely to be small and the section could be tidied up easily enough. For example cementing the bottom section and redrilling it should be feasible.
The big problem for resuming drilling is not the hole condition but the perennial one of funding. I can't see Bellevue being drilled by 17 May.
Malcolm Bendall has NO academic qualifications.
It was Clive Burrett who was the Professor and not Bendall. Bendall was only ever a junior student who did not exactly cover himself in glory.
It's another mystery how Bendall can introduce a costly project into Empire in which he has a substantial financial stake (through his Bass Mining) without stockholders being notified it has been assessed by an independent expert as a fair and proper arrangement. Amazing. The word rort comes to mind.
Malcolm Bendall is not a geologist even though he might say or give the impression he is one. He failed University geology with flying colors.
Only the CEO is able to issue Press Releases and the other Directors are not authorized to do so. Issuing PRs that are just waffle or padding is pointless, we have seen enough of that sort already. If no PR then you can conclude there is no progress at all to announce (not even anything worth waffling about).
SEL 13/98 expired on 30 September 2009, it was not lost as such. GSLM was very lucky to get the new EL in view of its failure to perform as required over the 10 year term of the licence. MRT obviously had doubts that new funding can be found and so far their reservations have been totally justified. No funds and drilling by 17 May 2011 and the game will be well and truly over.
I agree that MRT would likely be flexible regarding the 17 May deadline for Bellevue #1 should GSLM demonstrably have the necessary funds and the well had not yet been completed. Of course, claims that funds are on the way, they are just around the corner, the King of Saudi Arabia says it's a fantastic project and he's wiring $100 million any day now, here's a letter of credit that proves it etc. etc. would cut no ice.
If so much depends on the new management to get things done it doesn't say a lot for the former crew.
EarnestDD
I notice on Empire's website Dr Burrett says that $10 million was expended on seismic surveying. Drilling activities (including mobilization and the abortive set up) could not have accounted for more than $5 million. Makes you wonder where the other $35 million of the $50 million claimed went. Some very strange accounting goes on with this company (not forgetting the debt that appeared out of nowhere during the RO).
Two billion and I raise you two billion.
Do you think 200 million shares would cover it? At an issued valuation of 2 cents that would amount to only $4 million and we are looking here at annual revenue generated for the flare gas technology alone of $2.7 billion (it's got to be true because the report by some hotshot experts says so) on which a very modest return of say 5% (some say it would be much higher) would be $135 million a year profit. I think we might have to issue quite a few billion shares to pay for it.
Assuming there is no unforseen delay because of a need to do further due diligence on the security being offered the next development within an exciting few days time should be a PR notifying authorization of the $20 million line of credit. This will likely see a surge in the pps and many who have been anticipating it will no doubt want to unload fast. However I would suggest the locals here who often talk of a good chance to buy more should exercise caution since "authorization" may not be quite the same thing as funds now seriously flowing. It might be safer to wait until a watertight affirmation is made that a few mill have been actually drawn down and the funds are in the bank. We wouldn't want to see a repeat of the unfortunate experience of the CEO and his disappearing line of credit.
If there is to be a long delay while further due diligence is undertaken the time could be usefully filled in by an announcement of the appointment of some more high-powered directors required to supervise Empire's growing substance as a company that has now joined the big league.
Good luck with your insight. I look at past performance and the present state of play. This whole story has been going on now for a very long time. Strong on blue sky hopes but not much joy to be had.
Except for the first point (whose real worth is not entirely clear) and Mr Leach's elevation (more a matter of corporate governance than solid progress) I think it might be safer to describe all the rest as a wish list accompanied by some hopeful running about rather than excellent progress.
It's also good the Directors have been creatively busy behind the scenes re-acquiring (at a cost not worth mentioning) the assets-rich Grand Monarch Holdings with its $10 million (minimum) annualized revenue stream which should itself represent excellent security for the provider of the $20 million line of credit due any day now. Not forgetting the $2.7 billion annual revenues from the flame gas technology which is the real icing on the cake.
It's all good as some would say.
Here is some proof that should interest you.
Find the section of Bellevue #1 at the Empire website and you will see that the Spaulding precollar hole was drilled in dolerite which even the most ardent Empire proponents would not claim is a potential reservoir rock for petroleum accumulation. No blowout preventer was needed for the shallow Spaulding hole.
I have BOLDED it for your ease of reading it.
I believe Mr Bendall came across the Styx River oil shale (Tasmanite) outcrop while working as a field assistant for BHP. It would not represent a real oil seep in the accepted sense of migrated oil. There has been some interest in oil shale in its own right in the past for retorted oil production but that is a different matter from straight-out petroleum exploration and production.
Conga Oil is a Bendall entity and its identifiaction of seep occurrences is not necessarily regarded as reliable by MRT.
The report is presumably competently prepared but it is your understanding of it that may be deficient.
It's amusing that the King of Saudi Arabia should be said to be joining in where the local oil majors have never shown any interest. It sounds like one of the tales in the Arabian Nights.
Read MRT's report which was prepared by competent technical people. Mr Bendall lacks any qualifications and he is a promoter and not a disinterested earth scientist. If there were good, verified seeps MRT would be very happy to know of them and encourage interest in more exploration to follow them up.
Even Dr Burrett says that there is only the one seep (at Lonnavale) which visitors can be shown for inspection. That is more of an "occurrence" than a true seep since it does not actively flow.
There is only a PROSPECTIVE resource estimated with GSLM's licence area which has yet to be tested out and which may be realised only in part or not at all.
The formal Proven, Probable and Possible reserve categories are all supported by positive drilling results (to a greater or lesser extent) and they are not presently applicable to the GSLM prospects. I understand that no petroleum discovery of even sub-economic interest has been made in any of the oil wells drilled on onshore Tasmania to date (and there have been a few). The first barrel of oil discovered (always the hardest) would be a major advance on the present state of affairs.
You may not know that recoverable oil is generally only 20% to 30% of the oil in place in a charged reservoir. Even if oil is present it may not be live and not flow to any useful degree.
It's far too early to calculate the value of oil which is not yet discovered and an indicated pps.
Whatever figures you are looking at they are not the chance of success for exploratory drillholes. 100% chance of testable oil flowing to the surface encountered in testing raw prospects is plainly ridiculous. With all the percentages you are quoting it's hard to know what you are talking about.
The first RPS Energy report gives the COS for Bellevue #1 as 2% and Thunderbolt #1 as 0.72% as you are doubtless well aware of.
The second RPS report was (unfortunately) not linked to and only a very few people seem to have access to it.
There can be snow dumps up there right through to Christmas and beyond. I hope they remember to winterize the rig this time, we wouldn't want another delay for it to leave to get winterized like the last time, especially as there is a risk it might not return.
I am puzzled why you should say "They have secured a line of credit for $20,000,000 to pay for the new rig and continued operations till the first part of the $180,000,000 is delivered" when that isn't reported in the PR that I am able to find. Also where the "multiple drill rigs to choose from" all are.
It would be quite impossible for drilling to start in as little as 2 weeks. It's hard to see it even starting in November as foreshadowed in the latest PR. Where is the funding to pay for it? Patience is required (lots of it).
The virtual absence of true seeps does not inspire a lot of confidence the large quantities of oil are present that are being spruiked. Not saying that a drillhole or two wouldn't be warranted but this project has always suffered from too much over the top hype by both management and investing hopefuls. A more sensible and balanced approach would have been a help in attracting real interest and financing.
There's no $180 million of funding, no drilling rig and no oil well. Looking on the bright side as the hole would very probably have been dry that will save splashing away a few more million on oil exploration. Did I mention no $300 million for a supposed gas flare technology either?
I suggest the enthusiasts step back, take a deep breath and try to see what absurd $ amounts those are for a minnow pink sheet company that doesn't even have a proper place to call its home anymore.
Excellent post.
Could you please provide a link that relates to the employment of a divining method.
Agreed that speculation about coal and CSG for Empire is pointless and another red herring. Let them just get on and find all the oil/gas they say is there will suffice very well.
Yeah, a strange thing the oil majors haven't been awake to it for the past 50 years. And still aren't. Looks like they have better fish to fry.
But wait. Maybe the Middle East big guys will fall over themselves to get in on it.
So what? It was in early May and not by Empire.
They might also have vacated when the lease expired.
It would be extremely surprising if a company can claim an office it does not occupy to be its "headquarters". I don't buy it and I doubt the SEC would either.
Wrong. Empire is no longer the occupant. See also the post by Howard who is the authority here on all Empire matters.