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During recent reversals ECIG took some 3 days to double PPS... Steady trend could be quadruple in 6 days with some 2 pause days inbetween...so around $1.2 by the end of next week.
Then on the 22nd the D will come off, which technically doesn't mean anything but psychologically clears newbies to finally come on board.
Question Strokeofgenius: do OTC short volume reports 1) track the cover volume (how?) or 2) the borrowing volume (if not naked) or 3) both????
During recent reversals ECIG took some 3 days to double PPS... Steady trend could be quadruple in 6 days with some 2 pause days inbetween...so around $1.2 by the end of next week.
Then on the 22nd the D will come off, which technically doesn't mean anything but psychologically clears newbies to finally come on board.
If management instills confidence we could look very good by end of April. Then 45 days (for small rep. company!, not 40) after RS the Q1 ER will come out even if delayed between May 15th (friday) and May 29th (friday).
High shorting today Hope they get trapped/squeezed soon):
Apr 08 48.64% NA NA NA 2,296,847 4,722,375
Apr 07 29.99% 0.37 0.27 0.28 1,520,811 5,070,282
Apr 06 38.25% 0.53 0.34 0.36 1,542,444 4,032,364
Apr 02 46.12% 0.56 0.48 0.52 1,435,027 3,111,837
Apr 01 30.12% 0.88 0.52 0.58 2,113,748 7,017,737
Mar 31 41.76% 0.95 0.65 0.90 1,095,324 2,622,724
Mar 30 27.02% 0.82 0.60 0.67 1,042,510 3,858,287
Mar 27 21.97% 1.28 0.72 0.75 1,568,656 7,139,250
Mar 26 23.23% 1.47 1.28 1.28 95,167 409,63
Also ECIG among most read on Ihub:
#3 Electronic Cigarettes International Group Ltd. read: 48,112 Recent News for ECIGD
Baby steps:
high volume run up; low volume drop
Ecig top 3 most read on Ihub
D comes off We April 22nd
Q1 ER with very reasonable revenue (but unknown losses)due May 15th (which is a friday; extension of another 15 day max. can be/likely will be filed)
Missing:
Management PPS support (unless they figure that Note conversion is over now)
Thanks...was it you who talked to dan directly weeks ago?
If so it would be nice to get his feedback on shareprice stabilization and PR efforts??!
Thanks...was it you who talked to dan directly weeks ago?
If so it would be nice to get his feedback on shareprice stabilization and PR efforts??!
That is the thing that makes me wonder if they are giving up now: The 15:1 inst. of 20:1 was to aimed please the market and the SP stability.
But, in contrast,now they make no efforts to stabilize it (because they have nothing positive to report?).
Also, if they have non-toxic ideas then they only do good if the SP stays stabilized, which could be PRd....
The NASDAQ listing justification was from Brent in conjunction with a proposal of a RS up to 100:1.
As soon as Dan was on board he said the financing is the issue and requires RS, and NasdaQ listing is not their concern, and thus they revised the RS to no more that 20:1 !!!!!
So they'he did not lie...however, I still don't get it that Dan seeing it all thought (or thinks) he can get them out?????
Since the dilution is all/mostly note holders the shares enter the market...that means that the company once again would not control a possible vote on a RS if necessary in a year or so.
That means that if they hand out semi toxic notes again for financing, which they might need to not go bankrupt, the SP might go penny...and they reach the end of the road also.
This is why they are right now either themselves at loss and helpless, or they have a plan which includes to support the SP as best as they can. With their corporate history I assume there is a plan, which we don't know off, and which necessarily forces them to prevent a sub-dime dive before the Q1 ER.
Who of you guys thinks otherwise (meaning management has lost the battle and as we speak realizes it)?
I don't know which mechanisms can set shares free for dilution/raising capital...Dilution through old lenders should be at its end...but I hope that s.o. like Bjdev can explain what other events can lead to dilution.
I think Dan's summary is pretty self-explanatory...but you are right in your question as to what does it mean for immediate survival/SP/dept (I fear that he does not address the current situation, but really thinks longer term only...but is it knowledge or desperation"?)
Even if they would dilute from 40M to 100M...and given your statement from a previous Pm that the market cap is only 1x the annual revenue that would be still 80 cents per share...so you think the ride is down to 5 cents and up to 80 cents....you have to me more specific in your scenarios to hand out warnings that are taken seriously...you can't just say "dilution", xyz cent, I warn you :)
Oh before I forget since that seemed to have been a problem for some here...ECIGD is the 2nd most read Ihub board today.
Also, who were the guys ????? who in feb and march personally talked to Dan? Maybe a call or e-mail with some questions would at least through his response give an idea of his mental health status and confidence level :)
If no earlier poster can do it I will try soon
The management doesn't adjust to the OTC as I said before.
However, they are working on the financing so far successfully...thus bankruptsy is not expected unless the distribution network or sales collapse....but hey, they so far have been expanding and will continue to do so as long as they can provide the product.
Just some silly calculation: Even if 2015 revenue stagnates at 80M, and even if we assume a market cap of just twice that annual revenue at 160M and even if dilution continues by another 60% until 100M shares are OS.....then that would still reflect a PS of $1.6.
Enormous potential for traders and averaged longs!
I think because
1) it should be within 45days (:::For purposes of filing annual and quarterly reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the due dates of such reports for a smaller reporting company are those of a non-accelerated filer ); they now despite being an accel. filer are also reporting as smaller rep. company, thus 45 delayed
2) "historically" thats the time they released before (example May 20th 2014) even though back then they should have within 40days
3) even if they could they probably want to follow the delicate situation into Q2 as long as possible before completing Q1 ER
in fact I hope this time they dont file an extension again due to last minute verifications or problems...that would make it 8 weeks rather than 6 weeks from now
Happy easter
less than 8 weeks; not 4 though
the way you write is quite condescending toward tbone and cuin...in any case if you exclude pinnacle holding these shares through conversion or purchase what option is left? (i understand you plan to let us know after doing your chores).
Also, couldn't payback (e.g. april 3rd) have occurred without immediate PR?
a painful expose...that's funny....yes, its a piece of financial art and as a shareholder it hurts to look at it...however, they really proof indirectly that they are determined to win the war.
I think by the end of 2015 it will have been decided...and if to our benefit the PPS can then already be in the $ 10 range...if on the other hand they resignate they will do so once they know the Q3 results
Thanks...so it's basically amended to include an updated audit report regarding the audited 2013 financials...nothing significant..BUT the diligent and almost micro-managed reporting style shows HOW DETERMINED AND DRIVEN the management is....they are on a mission!!!!
have a nice long weekend CUIN & everyone
If brent is a frustrated dreamer and dan a frustrated wrestler, but they decided to mutually go for all or nothing we might be part of a crazy and stubborn, and thus interesting, struggle to stay alive and grow (alone that is worse watching, since under normal circumstances from what we know now, anyone else than those two would have filed for bankruptsy.
Sit back and relax and watch ...and stay long
not unusual
Apr 01 30.12% NA NA NA 2,113,748 7,017,737
Mar 31 41.76% 0.95 0.65 0.90 1,095,324 2,622,724
Mar 30 27.02% 0.82 0.60 0.67 1,042,510 3,858,287
Mar 27 21.97% 1.28 0.72 0.75 1,568,656 7,139,250
Mar 26 23.23% 1.47 1.28 1.28 95,167 409,636
Mar 25 27.02% 1.62 1.16 1.35 143,927 532,737
Mar 24 28.25% 2.00 1.17 1.38 588,560 2,083,334
the board here was non-stop obsessing about every twist and turn...however, what was left out (even though weeks ago the term "orchestration" was used)is that, given the will of the management to turn things around, and them knowing that the dilution will occur and that revs are lower and losses are higher than the public expected, the dilution was POSSIBLY purposely coordinated with the lenders to take place before the 10K....this all assuming that the management saw no way to prevent SP decline....to really set a new controllable start date to work upwards as of today.
We will soon know...if dilution continues and no PRs are coming then management is once again just Don Quixote and "Dan and Phil" have failed.
Plan or not plan....that is the question?????????
(BTW...I have no clue and can just hope like any other layperson here)
Hello..while you are all waiting on the 10k could someone please explain to me:
Contrary to the last 5 trading days (when obvious conversions took place and it was rather clear that the PPS would drop)the shorted volume today went up over 40% again.....so does that really mean that today there was increased betting that the price will fall and on these last days shorting was reduced because people thought the price was going up?
Tx
Contrary to the last 5 trading days the shorted volume went up over 40% again.....so does that really mean that there is increased betting that the price will fall? Why was there not higher short vol. e.g. on these days where obvious conversions took place (such as friday or monday when it was clear by noon time that the PPS would drop)?
Educated people please help to understand.
Tx
Some posters in their frustration claimed that the timing of RS and heavy dilution for several days without supporting the price by PR/communication was planned.
My question again:
1) are lenders free to convert at any time (or is it even by these toxic lenders somewhat coordinated with the company???)
2) can lenders without any notice short at any time in the millions and cover with their convertible shares (even if just hours later)?
tx for detailed answers and scenarios
Question: With respect to "orchestration" and premeditated dilution timing.....are 1) lenders free to convert at any time (or is it somewhat coordinated with the company??? 2) can lenders short at any time to reliably cover with their convertible shares (even if just hours later)?
tx for detailed answers and scenarios
Ohh yes I forgot to add...yes I would and I will
[easy decision too; on a personal note I spend $70.000 in a custody battle for my two kids who I thought I loose being a man(worth the fight)but.... I won and its the best outcome for my kids!!!! even though I financially never fully recovered]
Its funny that just minutes before hearing from Cuin (thanks and have a great weekend) I was contemplating todays action and I thought to myself:
1) If the PS would drop to 1 cent I would have a loss of $29.000
2) if it drops to 10cent I would have a loss of $27.000
3) if the PS would rise to $10 I would have a $270.000 gain
4) if it would get to $40 I would gain $ 1.170.000
Hmm..all possible scenarios...will I take the chance?????
Thanks..escaped me.
Q4 looks solid and balanced just as the Q3 from Dec24/15.
Very little shorting today...with some retail buyers we could get out of the hole quick with ~5-10M for each higher ASK increment since shorters would have to cover quick. (I would gladly buy 10M but I hold already 9M and can't afford more in SAMP)
However, if the MMs keep controlling the price, they might successfully run the SP down to 0.0002....and then management would want to RS (are most of the OS in the hands of insiders, so that approval of RS would be granted?)
I think we have a chance for scenario 1
What about their Q4 ER...is that not scheduled?
correct!...SP does not reflect revenue and balance sheet at all, esp. since it was kept at the current level through buyback and Tan's purchases.
As soon as institutional and overseas investors find the confidence back (starting with this Q4 report) the SP will steadily climb. I see the overall potential and situation comfortable enough to add until June/Q1'15 ER and hold past that before any flipping might be useful or portions might be cashed out for gains. I see the stock in the 2nd half of 2015 rise to the original IPO levels.
If there is massive shorting today, we could get easily through a squeeze into the $1.5 to $2 range again before the ER on tuesday...the question is how the ER will be(mis)interpreted w. resp. to probably high revenue but also losses and, then, can the PS hold afterwards
Bjdev...I see you as the most logical poster here at this time. I can't privat message...I'm curious at to: Could you private message me without analysis (I read them all)what you think objectively (not wishingly)could be the two extremes you could see with respect to the PS in the time limited to the coming month...the most negative as well as the most positive?
Thanks
They refuse to "think OTC", new managem has small cap, but not OTC experience.
Willis is still under shock and believes in the consolidation efforts of the others and focuses on company day to day tasks.
They do not see these few shareholders after RS as people deserving gains. They got what they wanted/needed and now don't get into strategic PRS but take the risk of the OTC by simply playing "normal (meaning only absolutely essential PRs)" which will bring them confidence in the future, but right now is risky.
Good morning Cuin...welcome back.
Not much too say at this point. ECIG is indeed undervalued and from the management prospective is likely running at its best. I still believe they, however, do not care if their SP is 70 cents or $1.7 because they focus long term....per se good, but takes the OTC psychology out of the equation that they seem to undervalue...which in my eyes is a big mistake. They should communicate better, should release guidance etc.
The board here suffers loss of analysis and members.
I'm long with 25kshares, as before, but worried. I do not doubt that in the medium term time frame gains are on the horizon, but I did not secure my early gains, free shares etc. and blame myself for it.
Good luck to you and the others here.
t2t2
Almost all short sales today...have never seen anything like that:
Mar 26 87.28% NA NA NA 5,583,125 6,396,875
Mar 25 18.18% 0.00 0.00 0.00 4,404,827 24,234,927
Mar 24 16.69% 0.00 0.00 0.00 4,690,000 28,101,109
Mar 23 22.46% 0.00 0.00 0.00 5,998,976 26,707,724
Mar 20 33.68% 0.00 0.00 0.00 10,183,766 30,233,857
Mar 19 78.21% 0.00 0.00 0.00 11,445,000 14,633,708
I can't remember: What did he mislead with? Or what was it that he predicted specifically with the words that he would stop posting if not happening? Do you recall?
I find these stories really weird....Tuesday at 9:30 I had all shares properly convered in my account, could sell or buy, with Fidelity brokerage.
The only tiny difference as compared to before midnight was that my "Ave" did not show for another few hours (said updating).
Below is pasted a private by our valued and beloved member Cuin2 (in response to my posting; only comment of mine...I could trade shares from 9:30 am yesterday on/Fidelity Investments without even 1 min gap after RS and I believe most could so some PR/guidance would have made sense e.g. on monday and thursday)::
BY CUIN2:::
"""Phil Anderson is a pro with micro and small cap companies. Dan O'Neill is a seasoned "turnaround" pro. They are executing exactly as they promised us they would. We are currently in the eye of the hurricane and management has made the absolute correct move IMO. We all new the R/S was coming and they are ALWAYS messy and difficult.
Imagine if management released a good PR or 10K now, with investors not being able to trade shares? I can't even imagine how bad it would be. I am with Etrade and my accounts are all messed up. I won't get my shares for another day or two. Even if they did release a good PR it would have the same effect as pushing a wheelbarrow up a hill with rope...none.....due to the turmoil that the R/S has temporarily created. This too shall pass.
I have confidence and am steadfast in my believe in this company, and that until management gives me a reason not to trust them, I will trust them.
This is just my opinion"""
Turning into a flipper now is too late for me (i reached the limit of risk taking). Should we ever reach the previous high once again (now the equivalent of ~3$)I might treat it as the OTC stock it was all along and sell for real gains...but right now I don't want to give up on 3 months of stubborness and DD that seemed to work and start to flip at possibly the wrong time. We all new 3 days before the voting weekend it would suffer, we all knew it would suffer on day 1 after RS...and did not act (and regret). Now, however, its really unpredictable.
AND: I believe managm. does not have experience with OTC and, thus, does not see the need to counteract the drop early on by PR/guidance etc. now before it could unfold into the penny disaster. They seem to think that the company is turning around now (which it is, unless there are secrets they don't tell us) and don't get that unlike a NASDAQ, NYSE, Frankfurt stock exchange listed ticker this can go down here uncoupled due to psychology and snowball effects (Brent should know though, but he was also the first to let it roll helplessly).
Honestly, as a scientist and PhD of many years, despite little experience in company financials i believe they act irresponsible not only toward us (understood and never expected differently) but also TOWARD the future of their chimeric OTC company.
Hi Honeycomb...that you make yourself rare, being the steadiest of all, speaks volumes.
GLTYA