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That doesn't build capital as JPS aren't CET1.
Hard to build capital while buying back stock.
The FHFA would also have to approve that as per HERA.
In other words, it's not gonna happen.
Although, I agree it would be a great use of their capital since they could 3x their money by investing in their own JPS.
Thanks. We agree on both fronts.
I imagine the conversion rate has to be highly attractive considering the Contract Claims in front of Lamberth.
I'm expecting at least 100% of Par unless they're Converted at a significant discount to the price of Commons.
Although, I'm inclined to believe we will see closer to 125% of Par to "make us happy" and get the deal done quickly.
#JPSFTW
Most would be happy with $3 at this point.
FNMA has a lot of bagholders that will be looking to sell in the $2.60-3 range.
So it's safe to assume there will be a lot of folks Selling the Pop
That's assuming FNMA Pops again, which it might not.
No price movement though. The downside of liquidity
Forbearance is one thing, but Delinquencies are also on the rise and that could significantly impact the GSEs if people start foreclosing on their homes.
Scary stuff here: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mortgage-delinquencies-plus-90-days-due-hits-decade-high
Commons continue to be high-risk, but they may not offer the high-reward that many believe.
At this point, I feel that the best path for me is commons only.
Have you seen the 5-year chart of FNMA vs FNMAS? That's eye opening
You can view it easily on ihub.
Irrational Exuberance and hope JPS will pull Commons higher.
It'll take a 1:10 Reverse Split to see $60
I was told JPS Conversion is practically guaranteed from my sources at JPM and MS. I guess we'll have to wait and see who's right
My suggestion: Start the paperwork for your lawsuits against the Warrants and the JPS Conversion. They're both coming amigos!!
All anyone has to do is look at the 5-year chart of FNMA. It's gone absolutely nowhere in 5 years.
Compare that chart to FNMAS or one of the other Jr. Preferreds. Then you'll see what JPS have been saying for years.
Commons are for gambling, JPS are for investing.
Not a recco.
Can we sticky this?
Will the Secret Escrow Account pay for The Party??
Disagreed
The size of the Reverse Split?
I think it'll be under 100:1.
Unless they do the Sr. Preferred Cramdown Plan. Then maybe 100:1 Reverse Split.
Who knows?
The idea that government was going to have some serendipity moment, start singing "Kumbaya" and return all the money on some voluntary basis has been and remains a total crock of shit.
Can we sticky these FNMA Facts?
"Sell the Pop because FNMA Always Drops" -- Mongo
Mongo says JPS are the gift that keeps giving all year long.
Simply incredible performance in comparison to Commons.
Someone has to know something at this point. Why else would Commons be selling off every pop while JPS continue to build on their gains?
Only Mongo knows and Mongo says keep buying Jr. Preferreds hand over fist.
As per Ackman's most recent SEC filing, he was one third Jr. Preferreds (33%) and two thirds Commons (67%). And that's just FNMA Fact
What I'm curious of now is if he added even more Jr. Preferreds. Sizable seems to imply more than 33% and as much as 49%.
Can you look up the definition of "sizable" in your dictionary also and let us know what you find?
With all of the Commons I will have from my Converted Jr. Preferreds, I'll be able to buy plenty didgeridoos
Unless Commons are crushed by the SPS Cramdown Plan. Then I won't own any Commons as I'll stick with the JPS.
Do you think he increased his JPS position even more?
It sounds like he's a little more than Hedged at this point.
"sizable investor in the junior preferred stock of each enterprise."
Sizable isn't a hedge.
Verification here: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=157330953
Ackman saw what was coming and ran for the hills. He still owns some FNMA at least and he kept all of his Jr. Preferreds.
So he's now about 60% Commons and 40% Jr. Preferreds.
FNMFO did $11.77M in dollar volume yesterday. I wouldn't be worried about it.
Plus your L2 is broke. FNMFO has a much higher Bid and much lower Ask.
Did the SCOTUS ruling leak? FNMA getting man-handled.
Even with all of the "Loading" yesterday, it looks like that Irrational Exuberance got the best of Commons yet again.
No Bueno Amigos!
We'll be lucky if they uphold the 5th Circuit's Ruling. If SCOTUS overturns it, Commons are done for.
Thankfully Jr. Preferreds have their Contract Rights affirmed and in front of Lamberth. So they live on to fight another day.
But with Washington Federal dismissed, Commons have no lifeline. Fisher is only out for his own interests, and his case will likely be dismissed also.
What Court case will Commons have left once Fisher's case is dismissed?
They could be heading to the Gray Sheets also. De-listing is not a good thing. Up-listing is a different story
Over $18M in FMCKK today! FNMA not even at $4M yet. Commons really need some volume before they drop back to $2.
Do you think this relates to the meeting Mnuchin had with the FHFA earlier this week?
Still chasing that one Series of Jr. Preferreds? My my, that's disappointing. You do realize there are 38 other JPS Series out there, right?!
FNMFO has done $11.77M in dollar volume alone, TODAY!
So much for JPS being illiquid. It looks like FNMA is incredibly illiquid in comparison to Jr. Preferreds.
Maybe that's why we're seeing all of this Selling. Is it another Rotation from Commons to Jr. Preferreds?
The Merger isn't good for Fannie Mae Commons. Everyone is selling the news.
No more Pops for FNMA, now we just Sell it.
FNMA selling off due to the upcoming Merger with Freddie Mac?
What's causing all of this selling pressure?