Click on... Economagic: Year Chart, Above Graph

http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/dol/day-icusa4MA

...last initial claims cross y/y happened 10 years ago!

LOL...Look Here.

http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/gifyear.exe/dol/day-icusa4ma

a yearly cross hasn't happened to break a trend since 2007!

Flat Dead in the Water Pulse.

...The winds could be blowing from the North...faster growth, or South...slower growth, or East...faster inflation or, West...lower inflation.

But right now the air is so calm on the Governor Ames you could blow perfect smoke rings on deck with not a whiff of breeze coming from any direction.

A sailing ship needs wind...any wind will do. In the mean time I plan to light up a cigar and enjoy the calm waiting on the Fed to stir up the air currents.

Fastball, Curve, Knuckle, Slider, Change Up.

...I feel like I'm a catcher calling pitches trying to find out what's working for my pitcher. Changing calls, trying new strategies, after the ball is hit hard. If this were a 12 inning (month) game my game calling would have produced a nine strike pitch first inning and a solid second inning.

However, in March, April, and May nothing seems to be working well so I keep changing pitches (portfolio strategy) to find some pitch that will produce strikes rather than stand up doubles.

It doesn't help that the umpire Fed has been calling a strike zone about the size of doily.

Anyway this is the latest pitch all based on short term trading pulses.

TOXIC ASSETS: (until trend reverses...longer run)

EWS
QQQ
DOG
UUP

...interesting that both QQQ and DOG are in this class at the same time.

POTENTIAL INVESTABLE ASSETS: (until trend reverses...short run)

EMLC
TIP
TLT
IEF
ZROZ
VPU
JNK
GLD
SLV

INVESTIBLE ASSETS:

None at present.

Toxic assets are funded at 2% of max allocation, potential 10%, and investible 100%, with a max overall allocation for any one asset at 10% of total portfolio. As of close 93% of portfolio is in MM, with 7% spread equally over the potential assets.

In addition I've built a VXX/XIV add-on which currently stands at 0% with a max of 10% of the portfolio.

...still leading in the game but the momentum is definitely with the other team, hope this pitch has some good stuff on it (like Vaseline)--lol.

Time to Buy VXX Insurance...50%

...buying 50% of VXX allocation at the opening.

Tom McC. is Nobody's Fool.

http://vixcentral.com/old/

...rather an amazing thing happened in the last 24 hrs. the rate of contango on the first month has been cut in half from 15 down to 7.5.

There is a very good chance my vol indicator will turn positive today favoring VXX.

Great Article on Ponzi China.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/05/16/chinas-debt-bubble-is-getting-only-more-dangerous/

Cat Stopped the Drop.

https://www.crescat.net/products-performance/global-macro-hedge-fund/

...for the comparable time frame GA was up 6.26%

Another Day in Crazyland.

...one day it's summer, then spring, then fall, then winter. The dust settled today in summer.

Both winter and summer are VXX loving while spring and fall love XIV.

The growth pulse is negative using my very broad 15 indicators with 7 up/ and 8 down, even after a multi-month rally today.

Inflation pulse is up, but by the scantest of margins...+1.

If tomorrow brings a continuation of the equity rally and a sell off in PM's, then back to spring we go.

The old saying, the 'trend is your friend' is still true, but when a 'trend' lasts for a day, it isn't much of a trend--lol.

Took a Flyer Today.

...no rhyme or reason, but I picked up a piece of VXX at the close.

If I paid attention to my numbers it should have been XIV.

No Clue, and Don't Care.

...CB often not only buy/sell for their own account but also offshore accounts that don't show up anywhere...except the Cayman Islands.

A Real Laugher...Bill Clinton Economic Czar

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hillary-clinton-wants-bill-in-charge-of-economy-trump-sees-difficult-relationship-with-cameron-boehner-to-campaign-for-republicans-2016-05-16

...and this was the guy who appointed Robert (Strong Dollar Bob) as Sec. of the Treasury.

A Worthy Bookmark.

https://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/

...Richard Duncan is now posting every week or so to his blog.

Agree, Makes it all Interesting.

...things are getting curiouser and curiouser

Inflation Pulse Turned South on Wednesday...

and the growth pulse with a 99% degree of confidence will turn south on Monday with the combined indicator moving from +7/-5 to plus +3/-9 with four of the indicators sitting at zero (but still counted as positive moving down from a positive value).

So in a scant four days the pulse has moved from spring => fall => to winter!

On Monday Something Really Weird Will Happen.

The global economies will be in secular spring with rising inflation and faster growth.

BUT...

The global pulse will be in winter with falling inflation and slower growth.

If your a long-term investor play the secular, but if your a trader play the pulse!

Match Races.....Week #19, SGIIX Added.

GA (Governor Ames) Up 5.43% YTY gaining 4 basis points for the week as risked continued off. Numbers 1 and 1A... QGMIX and ASAIX are still far behind at (2.77)% losing (.27) for the week and (3.02)%, losing (.45) for the week.

The bond 'king' match races had number 2 and 2A... JUCIX up 2.89% gain .32 for the week and DBLTX up 2.34% a gain of .19 for the week.

Picking up a number three animal to join the race SGIIX. The performance of the fund has been nothing less than spectacular!

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/sgiix

With a YTD return of 4.99%, GA is a scant 1.43% ahead of the number 3 beast. With a possible swing of 2% in a given day SGIIX will give me a good hard race to the year end finish line.

Bad News Out of China Continues.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-activity-idUSKCN0Y506N

...can another China related market selloff be coming? Stay tuned.

Does the Blue Cross the Green Next Week?

http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/dol/day-icusa4MA

...will initial claims do something they haven't done in eight years this next week and cross y/y? If so that tells me a recession isn't far off if it stays crossed.

Paul Craig Roberts.

...first to coin the phrase 'global wage arbitrage' which was possible once the gold standard for international settlements was abolished by Nixon in 1971.

This reached it's zenith under Treasury Sec. Robert (Strong Dollar Bob) Rubin, who told the rest of the world it was okay to manipulate their currency to make them weaker stealing factory jobs from American workers.

PS Bill Clinton appointed Strong Dollar Bob.

A History Lesson in Inflation/Deflation.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=EWS%3AVPU&p=D&st=2006-05-13&en=(today)&i=t16975205772&r=1463168277591

...both VPU and EWS love growth, but VPU hates inflation while EWS loves the stuff.

Growth comes and goes but inflation or deflation once it sets in sticks around like 'Crazy Glue'.

When EWS out performs VPU inflation is the name of the game, when the reverse occurs the dark hole of deflation is to be feared.

Janice Yellen said that negative interest rates are on the table. Well looking at EWS:VPU who would be surprised!

All Hedged 'Perfectly' Now....Friday 13th

...been giving a lot of thought in how I could create a perfect hedge and this is what a I came up with.

100% / 4 (number of seasons) = 25% initial allocation to each cell. I then matched:paired the two assets which most represent each class.

For Spring...EWS:EMLC, Summer...LTPZ:GLD, Fall...VPU:JNK, and Winter TLT:IEF. I then selected the best performing asset of the pairs and assigned a 67% weighting for the best and 33% for the worst.

The best in each cell: Spring...EMLC, Summer...GLD*, Fall...VPU, and Winter...TLT.

I then did a matched pair between the two opposite seasons of summer:fall, and spring:winter producing VPU and TLT as the winners assigning 67% of the combined total to TLT and VPU

Not done I then did a matched pair between TLT:VPU with VPU the ultimate asset and assigned 60% of the weighting with TLT at 40%.

This produce a prime asset with 26.4% of the portfolio which is currently the fall asset VPU, and also a sub-prime asset of 4.4% which mathematically is 1/6 the prime.

The nice thing about the hedge is the stability. I also have money set aside for XIV and VXX on a very short-term trading trend, the current allocation is 0% XIV/VXX,

At the close of Friday I'll be:

VPU... 26.4%
TLT... 17.5%
GLD... 13.2%
JNK... 13.2%
EMLC... 8.7%
IEF... 8.7%
LTPZ... 6.5%
EWS... 4.4%
XIV/VXX... 1.4%
MM... 1.4%

*GLD can mean either 100% GLD or 50% GLD and 50% SLV, currently GLD = 50% GLD/50% SLV.

You'll note the two prime assets are in the deflationary seasons of fall and winter, while the two sub-prime assets are in the inflationary seasons of summer and spring.

Note: Any one of the eight listed assets can range from 4.4%-26.4%

Bad Vibes out of China.

Fookie has gone back to being negative for the year. $BDI continues to roll over, and EWS is leading my growth indicators south.

The US equity markets have been made of Teflon this year as the US is THE best performing country in the world...can this continue?

Stay tuned.

Secular Spring with Fall Pulse.

The inflation pulse moved lower today pointing to deflation. The pulse growth is still positive.

From a pulse perspective JNK, QQQ, and XIV are favored assets along with utilities.

The opposite of fall is summer with TIPS and gold being less attractive.

If the growth pulse turns (which could happen next week) along with deflation, that would put us back in winter.

Trump and Clinton Running Neck and Neck.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/11/us-election-donald-trump-surges-into-tie-with-hillary-clinton-as/

...back announcing his intent to run, I'd have placed 1000/1 odds against him becoming POTUS.

Mario Eager to Test 'New' Super Powers.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Fed/Stock-buying+pill+tempts+ECB,+BOJ+as+deflation+headache+builds/11615449.html

...stocks up next for the ECB.

The progression is for a CB to: buy its treasuries, buy mortgages, buy corporate bonds, buy corporate stocks, buy commodities esp. gold targeting a higher price as was done in 1933.

DJIA 30,000

http://www.investing.com/analysis/doing-the-central-bank-dance-200129423

...nice article discussing the global CB puts in place until price inflation starts working it's debt liquidation dynamics...eliminating both asset prices along with debt.

Great Quote...Hopefully I'll be able to Say the Opposite.

ATACX 100% in MM.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/atacx/charts?symb=ATACX&countrycode=US&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F11%2F2016&freq=1&compidx=none&compind=none&comptemptext=Enter+Symbol%28s%29&comp=none&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&style=1013

...Gayed really swings, from being 100% QQQ to 100% TLT I never know what these guys are up to. Yesterday the market was up 200 and today down the same...for both days ATACX was unchanged.

Be interesting to see once they make a move if I agree with it, or they agree with me.

BDI Exactly on 200 SDMA

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24BDI&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=t95727969760&r=1463000910288

...so which way will it go?

Higher with higher growth and implied higher inflation, or lower with lower growth and implied lower inflation (deflation)?

Your guess is as good as mine.

Massive Contango Not Dented Much Today.

http://vixcentral.com/old/

...off slightly from a 1 month peak of 16.00. Tops are usually found in this area to 20.00.

Holdings and Possible Moves Tomorrow & Friday.

Going into the opening tomorrow: 30% JNK, 15% TLT, 15% MM, 10% TIP, 10% EMLC, 10% SLV, and 10% GLD.

Gold and silver are sitting on the fence, meaning I could be selling up to 75% of the combined holdings by Friday's close depending upon price action.

JNK is also on the fence which would have me flip-flop the JNK/TIP holdings.

The reason I'm 15% in cash and in TIP vs. LTPZ is that my pulse and long term interest rate direction indicators are both pointing up...however it wouldn't take much to move the pulse interest rate indicator to a negative leading me to reduce my MM cash by 50% and move it into TLT.

Interesting that the majority of my holdings ex: gold and silver are in fall and winter, the deflationary periods. What you don't want to own in deflation is gold and especially silver.

So which side will win out? My numbers are interesting in that they tell me both inflation and deflation are both on the fence. In other words the market is perfectly balanced.

The market is never perfectly balanced for long, and when it tilts one way or the other my money will be moved.

'Cheap Suit', sez Fed too Restricitve.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-made-the-poor-even-poorer-a-former-insider-says-2016-05-11

...somebody really should take him to a fine men's clothing store.

So what Fed policies support home prices...hum, let me think--could that be higher price inflation? Yep, that's it, higher price inflation supports homes (poor persons asset) while lowering financial asset inflation (stocks/bonds rich persons assets).

All rather simple.

No doubt both the growth and inflationary pulses are on the down stroke, but neither has turned negative...yet. The seculars are still in place as well.

Ah, the mythical town.

How to Love People Who Have No Use.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_Piano_(novel)

...Vonnegut was 64 years ahead of his time writing the Piano Player. If only we were blessed with his commentary today. One HUGE I told you so.

Read it my sophomore year in college and have been marked by it, Slaugherhouse Five, and Cat's Cradle ever since.

Match Races.....Week #18.

GA (Governor Ames) Up 5.39% YTY losing 1.5% for the week as risked turned off and the sails were reset. QHMIX and ASAIX are still far behind at (2.50)% and (2.57)%.

The bond 'king' match races has JUCIX up 2.57% and DBLTX up 2.15%. Risk on is favoring Gross and risk off Gundlach.

Sorry Bob, but You Can't Have it.

...post #16, that is.

Fookie and BDI both Rolling Over.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24BDI&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t93526879351&r=1462633040467

...along with Fookie losing 3.5% on Friday now only a couple of percent positive for the year having been up 12%.

Why Picking the Derby is Exceptionally Hard.

...it's the rate of improvement sometimes month over month.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4013968/

Last race means nothing if the winner didn't improve as much as the competition.

The winner of the KD, if a favorite, has to be the top horse in the last race and improve the most for the derby. When faced with say ten other competitors of equal caliber that's asking a lot.