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VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
https://finance.yahoo.com/portfolio/pf_1
ADDED THIS TO MY YAHOO PORTFOLIO FOR NEWS UPDATES
ON WATCH FOR HEADLINES....CHEERS GLTA
Marc Faber: Markets Could Crash Like 1987
...On "Black Monday," October 19, 1987, stock markets around the world crashed, shedding a huge value in a very short time. The crash began in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 508 points to 1,738.74 (22.6%).
http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/Marc-Faber-stock-Markets-Crash-inflation/2015/10/06/id/694944/
Everybody is buying nothing!!!
Last 7 qrtrs McDs down, Oil glut, home foreclosures up, jawb layoffs abundient, food prices skyrocketing. middle class is not getting enough money. BUT Corperations are getting bankers money and selling junk bonds to do stock buybacks.
Soon these elite corperations will be out on the street, because the middle class dont want their trash products.
Yes there is a revolt, and it is failure to purchase their crap products, being produced under inhuman conditions.
...Next week will give investors more to contemplate, with more than 100 companies in the benchmark index scheduled to report,..
U.S. Stock Investors Hitting Exits as October Rebound Continues
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-stock-investors-hitting-exits-210059244.html
...The unpredictable horror of a black swan often occurs following a predictable period of fear. For example, the Black Monday 1987 crash was an unpredictable event that occurred within a predictable crash. In the late summer of 1987 the market was trending lower and financial stress conditions were rising rapidly. Volatility rose even before that fateful Monday increasing from 21.83 at the start of October to 36.37 the day prior to the big crash. By this point, the S&P 500 had already experienced a -14% peak-to-trough drawdown. Many investors ranging from global macro traders to systematic trend followers correctly predicted a crash. Nobody predicted the market would fall -20% in one day or that volatility would peak at 150.
Ironically, if the same price movement occurred today most people would short volatility and buy equities the day prior to Black Monday in anticipation of policy support.
Most crises occur slowly and then suddenly. A devastating earthquake is a tremor that just didn’t stop… and Black Monday 1987 was a crash that just didn’t stop. To this extent sizing long volatility positions into a crisis can yield life changing returns at the right point. Today, due to the actions of central banks, everyone is doing the exact opposite...
"Shadow" Short Convexity: If You Short 'Fear', Be Prepared For 'Horror'
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-16/shadow-short-convexity-if-you-short-fear-be-prepared-horror
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/10/20151016_vol4.jpg
yep, 5 dollar share could be 20, 28, 38. 44.
i see a 6-7 bagger from these levels
SOME SAY A 1600 SP WOULD BE HEALTHY.
Wall Street jumps to eight-week high on financials, healthcare
Global stocks at two-month highs, dollar up; oil down for week
U.S. Stock Investors Hitting Exits as October Rebound Continues
Bellwether Wal-Mart suffers worst week since 2008
Federal Reserve inaction could start currency war – The Street
...The stock market stays high because the Fed is not going to raise short-term interest rates. The Fed is not going to raise short-term interest rates because the U.S. inflation rate remains low. The inflation rate remains low because the value of the U.S. dollar is high. The dollar is strong because world commodity prices have fallen and have "driven up the dollar and held down U.S. import prices."...
12 US housing markets getting rocked by foreclosures
http://www.businessinsider.com/states-with-highest-foreclosure-rate-2015-10
...After seven straight quarters of declining sales, McDonald’s ...
http://www.infowars.com/mcdonalds-on-last-leg-as-all-day-breakfast-gimmick-implodes/
Foreign Governments Sell Record Amount of U.S. Notes, Bonds
There's a potential trillion-dollar troublemaker in the bond market
New Credit Suisse Survey Shows Clients Are More Confused Than Ever
Investors Help Banks Escape Bust of Oil Boom
Goldman profit plunges as market turmoil hits bond trading15 Oct 2015
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc's profit plunged 38 percent, its second straight quarterly drop,
Bank of America wealth earnings slammed by stock market rout14 Oct 2015....
NEW YORK - Bank of America Corp said its wealth management business' income plunged 19 percent in the third quarter, underscoring how stock market selloffs can torpedo even an area that banks see as relatively safe and stable.
Ignore The Media Bullsh*t – Retail Implosion Proves We Are In Recession
....All economic indicators are flashing red and warning of recession. Retail sales, that account for two thirds of economic activity, are falling. Corporate profits are plunging. Middle class Americans haven’t seen their household income rise since 1989. The last two employment reports were horrific. The number of job layoff announcements by corporations is up 36% year to date and has already exceeded the total for 2014.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article52671.html
...Deutsche Bank is shedding assets, pulling out of countries, and cutting 23,000 jobs in an effort to cut costs. ..
Is Deutsche Bank the next Lehman? ..........10/07/2015
...Deutsche Bank is sitting on more than $75 Trillion in derivatives bets — an amount that is twenty times greater than German GDP. Their derivatives exposure dwarfs even JP Morgan’s exposure – by a staggering $5 trillion.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-07/first-crack-deutsche-bank-preannounces-massive-loss-may-cut-dividend
.....................ARTICLE...Thursday, 10/08/15
Deutsche Bank shares are swinging violently as the bank warns of huge losses
Day After Deutsche Bank Admits Not All Is Well, Swiss Giant Credit Suisse Also Admits It Needs More Cash
Deutsche Bank May Swell $14 Billion Selloff in China Bank Stakes
JPMorgan is in talks to buy a huge trading portfolio from Deutsche Bank
...................ARTICLE...Tuesday, 09/22/15
There Are Indications That A Major Financial Event In Germany Could Be Imminent
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/there-are-indications-that-a-major-financial-event-in-germany-could-be-imminent
Countries Preparing For A Collapse In Global Fiat Currencies
In this way, China wants to be on an economic par with the US. Russia is also buying physical gold, as are most of the central banks. They may be preparing for a collapse in fiat currencies. I advise my subscribers to buy as much bullion gold as they can. It seems that the central banks don’t trust the garbage money that they themselves have created.
http://kingworldnews.com/richard-russell-warns-countries-are-now-preparing-for-a-collapse-in-global-fiat-currencies-and-panic-buying-of-gold/
CHEERS SIVERTARDS !!!
American Apparel sees bright future after bankruptcy
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/15/us-americanapparel-bankruptcy-idUSKCN0S92U020151015?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
2015's OPEX rallies haven't failed yet to provide a tradabale downswing... is the market capable of withstanding one this time?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-15/what-happens-next-hint-nothing-good
Wal-Mart falls 9%, wiping out $20B in market cap at its lows of the day.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/14/wal-mart-shares-sink-as-ceo-says-sales-will-be-flat-in-fiscal-2016.html
U.S. Stocks Slide Amid Wal-Mart Profit Outlook, JPMorgan Results
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-14/s-p-500-futures-little-changed-jpmorgan-intel-fall-on-earnings
Wal-Mart tumbles the most in 27 years on profit outlook
Earnings season is off to a brutal start, with big names announcing big misses all over the place
...U.S. stocks retreated for a second day, with investors anxious about corporate profits as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. predicted earnings will decline next year
...“Wal-Mart’s sizable reset of expectations has shaken the overall market with general concern about both U.S. and global growth,” said Chad Morganlander, a money manager at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. in Florham Park, New Jersey, which oversees about $170 billion. “Investors are reconsidering their future forecasted growth rates for S&P earnings.”
...“This Wal-Mart news is an opening shot when it comes to the growth story right now,”
Thousands Of Angry Unpaid Chinese Workers Protest Shocking Bankruptcy Of Major Telecom Supplier
Major Chinese telecom supplier Fu Chang Electronic Technology Co. (also known as Fosunny), shocked its 3,800 employees when instead of going public, the company announced it would be going dark instead when it issued a statement saying it was ceasing operations due to liquidity problems resulting from legal and debt issues.
...Fu Chang owes banks 190 million yuan in debt and suppliers 270 million yuan, and it is two months behind on pay for its employees, the National Business Daily reported on Friday. The newspaper also said the shutdown would affect more than 3,800 employees and more than 300 suppliers. ....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-12/thousands-angry-unpaid-chinese-workers-protest-shocking-bankruptcy-major-telecom-sup
Asian Stocks Slide as Japan Reopens, Investors Await China Data
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets
Central Bankers Urge Fed to Get On With Interest-Rate Increase
....Many officials at IMF meeting in Lima, Peru, say they would prefer certainty over agony of waiting
This Analyst Says China's Stock Rally-to-Rout Is About to Repeat
...The Shanghai Composite Index will climb 29 percent to 4,100 in the next three months, before slumping as much as 41 percent to 2,400 in early 2016,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-11/china-stock-rally-to-rout-about-to-repeat-for-chartist-schroeder
China concerns leave central banks in difficult spot
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/10/us-global-economy-idUSKCN0S31X420151010
...Beijing will publish September trade data on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday and any significant deviation from expectations could set the tone for the week.
...major central banks long ago set the printing presses running to flood their economies with newly created money, spending around $7 trillion to defend themselves during the global financial crisis.
...Inflation data is due on Thursday and four voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee also speak next week.
...It had been hoped emerging countries would be the driver behind the global recovery but many of those economies are now in turmoil and Lagarde told policymakers
The deluge of data from China in coming weeks is likely to point to further weakness,
G30, Central bank cavalry can no longer save the world
...
A report by the Group of Thirty, an international body led by former European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet, warned on Saturday that zero rates and money printing were not sufficient to revive economic growth and risked becoming semi-permanent measures....
..;The flow of easy money has inflated asset prices like stocks and housing in many countries even as they failed to stimulate economic growth. With growth estimates trending lower and easy money increasing company leverage, the specter of a debt trap is now haunting advanced economies, the Group of Thirty said.
...The IMF has repeatedly urged the Fed not to hike rates yet.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/10/us-imf-cenbank-idUSKCN0S40VE20151010
Fed still plans rate hike this year, but not committed
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/09/us-usa-fed-dudley-idUSKCN0S31WR20151009
Markets
Banks take spotlight as earnings season heats up|
Japan Inc sounds alarm on consumer spending
Fed still plans rate hike this year, but not committed
http://www.reuters.com/
NEXT WEEK
Monday: a speech from FED governor Brainard after the close.
Tuesday: Budget surplus.
Wednesday: the PPI, Retail sales, Business inventories and the FED’s Beige book.
Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, the CPI, and the NY/Philly FED.
Friday: Industrial production and Consumer sentiment.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article52614.html
...Worries about a slowdown in China aren’t new. The more than 40% tumble in the Shanghai Composite stock index SHCOMP, +1.27% and the devaluation of the yuan over the summer helped fuel the selloff on Wall Street in late August, when the S&P 500 index entered correction territory for the first time in about three years.
China is becoming a big red flag for U.S. stocks
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-could-become-a-big-problem-for-us-stocks-again-2015-10-07?link=MW_home_latest_news
Oct 14 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book
Beige Book
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
Definition
This book is produced roughly two weeks before the monetary policy meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. On each occasion, a different Fed district bank compiles anecdotal evidence on economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts.
Why Investors Care
This report on economic conditions is used at FOMC meetings, where the Fed sets interest rate policy. These meetings occur roughly every six weeks and are the single most influential event for the markets. Market participants speculate for weeks in advance about the possibility of an interest rate change that could be announced upon the end of these meetings. If the outcome is different from expectations, the impact on the markets can be dramatic and far-reaching.
If the Beige Book portrays an overheating economy or inflationary pressures, the Fed may be more inclined to raise interest rates in order to moderate the economic pace. Conversely, if the Beige Book portrays economic difficulties or recessionary conditions, the Fed may see the need to lower interest rates in order to stimulate activity. Since the past recession, traders worry about the impact of the Beige Book on the timing of tapering quantitative easing.
Since the Beige Book is released two weeks before each FOMC meeting, investors can see for themselves at least one of the many indicators which Fed officials will use to determine interest rate policy, and can position their portfolios accordingly.
Frequency
Eight times a year
Economic Calendar Week of October 12, 2015
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/201542.html
Monday Oct 12
Markets Open, Banks Closed
Support 8/9.00..........Stack here
Resistance 12/14.00.........Look to sell here
Im in adding 120 at 8.35
"It's Not A Risk-On Rally, This Is The Biggest Short Squeeze In Years" Says Bank Of America
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-09/its-not-risk-rally-biggest-short-squeeze-years-says-bank-america
02:35PM Minutes show fed officials delayed rate hike over global risks
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/minutes-show-fed-officials-delayed-180000497.html?l=1
02:00PM U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes for Sept. 17 (Text)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-08/u-s-federal-reserve-meeting-minutes-for-sept-17-text-
Why October Is the Worst Month for Investors
An August slump sets the stage for a rocky October.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-08/why-october-is-the-worst-month-for-investors
Is Deutsche Bank the next Lehman?
...Deutsche Bank is sitting on more than $75 Trillion in derivatives bets — an amount that is twenty times greater than German GDP. Their derivatives exposure dwarfs even JP Morgan’s exposure – by a staggering $5 trillion.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-07/first-crack-deutsche-bank-preannounces-massive-loss-may-cut-dividend
China lands us all on the brink: IMF warns a series of toxic shocks could tip world economy back into chaos
...The Fund fears ‘a triad of challenges’: a crisis in emerging markets, the eurozone failing to confront banking weaknesses, and a shortage of cash as America raises interest rates. If these events are allowed to happen, then output could plunge by as much as 2.4 per cent by 2017, taking the world economy to the brink of a precipice.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3263830/China-lands-brink-Series-toxic-shocks-tip-world-economy-chaos.html
ALSO
....Watch Glencore
The minutes are due at 2:00 p.m. ET (1800 GMT).
Sea of Red at the Nasdaq
11:28AM Wall St. falls ahead of Fed minutes; Apple weighs
11:15AM Market Snapshot: Dow, S&P 500 struggle to stay higher ahead of Fed minutes
http://www.finviz.com/news.ashx
Credit Suisse AG - V (TVIX) 9.0699
Deutsche Bank shares are swinging violently as the bank warns of huge losses
China, Russia, Norway, Brazil, Taiwan Dump US Treasuries
China Is Dumping U.S. Government Debt At An Alarming Rate
Bangkok Bank: Sorry, System Error!
This is How the Trade Pact Escalates the Currency War
Octobers tend to be pretty crazy in the stock market
VIX Eases Most in 20 Months as Pressure Drops in Energy, Miners
US spy agencies were 'caught off-guard' by Putin's sudden dramatic escalation in Syria
A look at Syria rebel groups as Russia, Iran, and Assad go on the offensive
U.S. Stocks Little Changed Near 7-Week Highs Before Fed Minutes
Day After Deutsche Bank Admits Not All Is Well, Swiss Giant Credit Suisse Also Admits It Needs More Cash
Deutsche Bank May Swell $14 Billion Selloff in China Bank Stakes
China could be a big problem for U.S. stocks, again
Central Banks Lose Bond-Market Credibility as Woes Mount Traders' inflation outlook falls toward financial-crisis lows
Why the Ride up for Interest Rates Could Be Much Bumpier Than the Road Down
Wall Street guru who has been nailing the interest-rate story just made a jarring prediction for 2016
JPMorgan is in talks to buy a huge trading portfolio from Deutsche Bank
Russia bombing in Syria escalates oil price war with Saudi Arabia
...The collapse in oil prices, which has been engineered by America’s major allies in the region – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait – is crippling the Russian economy...
With oil markets oversupplied by at least 2m barrels per day (bpd) and neither Russia nor Saudi Arabia willing to cut back on production, Mr Putin’s intervention in Syria is an attempt to turn the tables on the American-led strategy to bankrupt Moscow...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/11911194/Russia-bombing-in-Syria-escalates-oil-price-war-with-Saudi.html
Russia bombing in Syria escalates oil price war with Saudi Arabia
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/11911194/Russia-bombing-in-Syria-escalates-oil-price-war-with-Saudi.html
U.S. Stocks Jump as S&P 500 Index Marks Longest Rally This Year
Fear & Greed Index still flashing fear
Don’t be fooled by the market’s ‘test’ of the lows
World's Largest Sovereign Wealth Fund Is Forced To Begin Liquidating Assets
Marc Faber: We Have Colossal Asset Inflation
How bad news on Wall Street can be good news
Hot money is pouring out of emerging markets
The panicked capital flight from China is a red herring
Bank of America's Woo Says Chinese Yuan May Drop 10 Percent
Why China May Have to Devalue the Yuan Further
Dead Cat Bounce’ Currency Candidates: Peso, Sol, Rupiah
Wells Fargo has biggest energy exposure among large U.S. banks: Raymond James24 Sep 2015
American Apparel files for bankruptcy
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-apparel-files-bankruptcy-045306184.html?l=1
On the flip side of the coin. In their world stocks are an asset, which holds value. During times of hyperinflation assets go up in value. It is their world that they control and they only understand inflation. Inflation keeps them in control of the system, always has and always will keep them in control. Damn the little people, ie. middle class, as they get squezed out of standard of living.
Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-plotting-bring-down-opec-000000104.html
....On Wednesday, Secretary of State John Kerry alluded to the main elements of the northern front operation at a meeting at the United Nations Security Council. With the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, presiding, Mr. Kerry said: “We are now in position with France, Australia, Canada, Turkey and other coalition partners joining the campaign, to dramatically accelerate our efforts. This is what we will do.”..
....The Arab wing of this ground force is called the Syrian Arab Coalition, a conglomeration of 10 to 15 groups whose total numbers range from 3,000 to 5,000 fighters, American officials said. They would fight alongside a larger Kurdish force in the northeast of as many as 25,000 fighters.
U.S. Aims to Put More Pressure on ISIS in Syria
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/05/world/middleeast/us-aims-to-put-more-pressure-on-isis-in-syria.html?src=twr
THIS AND RUSSIA BOMBING THE HELL OUT OF ISIS....WHO IS WHO???
I THINK, I MAY BE WRONG, THAT RUSSIA, IRAN SUPPORTS ASSAD. AMERICA WANTS TO REMOVE ASSAD. ASSAD IS SYRIAN PRESIDENT.
Emerging Market Meltdown May Plunge Global Economy Into Recession
....In other words, the dynamics that have propped up the global financial system for decades are now unwinding and at a much more fundamental level than what occurred in 2008. Emerging markets are now liquidating their USD cushions and a combination of low commodity prices and hightened political risks threatens to set the world's most important emerging markets back decades.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-04/emerging-market-meltdown-may-plunge-global-economy-recession
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey will move to counter Russia militarily
http://www.infowars.com/saudis-mull-launch-of-regional-war-as-russia-pounds-targets-in-syria-for-fourth-day/
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has said a coalition between Syria, Russia, Iran and Iraq must succeed "or else the whole region will be destroyed".
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34438993
The Reality Shares Guardian Gauge,
http://www.realitysharesadvisors.com/guardian/
http://www.econoday.com/economic-calendar.aspx
What to watch next week
the S&P 500 (INDEX: .SPX) levels and the Fed funds futures.
earnings reports.
Fed Minutes due out on Thursday
I FOUND THIS...CHEERS ALL
http://econoday.biz/
Oil Bulls Lose Faith in Recovery as Russia Adds to Global Glut
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-02/oil-bulls-lose-faith-in-recovery-as-russia-adds-to-global-glut
JIM ROGERS...
“When there’s bad news and something doesn’t decline, it usually means it’s at a bottom and will be turning,”
Traders bet the bottom is in for oil ???
Traders Don't See Fed Moving Until at Least March, Futures Show
Qatar Stocks Lead Arab Gains as Bets of Fed Rate Increase Recede
Kocherlakota Says Low Inflation Warrants Further Fed Stimulus
Investors brace for stocks to fall again ahead of earnings
Those who sold in May are looking to return to stock market ???
The Unwind Of QE Means The "S&P Should Be Trading At Half Of Its Value", Deutsche Bank Warns
Odds Are Very High That Stock Market Will Rally Over the Next Month
Oil Bulls Lose Faith in Recovery as Russia Adds to Global Glut