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I will have to correct this again.
Not in any serious debt. Profitable and operating comfortably off cash flow.
Relocating 1 store, not "closing stores".
Sales have consistently grown year-over-year for the last 12 quarters, at least. No shrinking sales.
Dilution hasn't happened in 2 years, and is NOT on the horizon. NO indications that it is.
We've now hit the EXACT SAME LOW as in February, and still, I haven't seen the bid below .0016 all morning.
I believe the MMs are trying to create panic.
bid is .0016, ask is .0018, right after the mega-dump at .0014.
Something fishy.
Did anyone see what the bid was when the dump happened?
Did they undercut the bid with one of their patented "sell to ourselves with huge all-or-none orders" to make it look like a massive selloff? If so, it's a good sign, if not, it's a bad sign.
Right now the bid is holding up well.
I wasn't talking about any of that.
My post was focussed on predicting which way the revenue was going.
Given what info we have, and how much we trust it, what do each of us think is happening to the revenue?
I'd like to hear how you (and everyone) interpret the info out there to make a projection of Q2 revenues, and future revenues.
Since you don't trust the financial statements, what are you using to try to figure out which way the business, and the stock price will move?
Thank you, TG.
I would hope they'd be ready to market Vivavuva.com in early September, since that's when things start to really ramp up, at least based on the other websites' traffic histories, and if you assume leggings and women's clothing have similar patterns. October was the first peak, then a lull in early November, then the big peak from mid-Nov to end December.
I'm hoping Vivavuva will have good momentum going into October, instead of just building it then.
You're right. Vivavuva.com will make things difficult to predict for a few quarters, hopefully in a good way.
Has anybody started tracking order numbers there?
It would be good to get a baseline before things start to really take off.
Interesting rise in bid and ask as the day went on. Both consistently rose.
Have we seen the bottom? This is still looking eerily similar to February, where we hung in the .0020s for a couple of weeks, then dipped into the teens, with lowest price of .0013 (today 0014) and lowest close of .0015, before the big surge.
So far we have predictions ranging between $750k and $840k for Q2 revenues after returns.
Anyone else care to make a prediction?
Of course, if you want to look at risk/reward ratios, this one is a winner.
Risk from here, some might argue 20% (based on February lows), others 50%, others 100%.
Realistic reward potential, if even some of the business's claims are legit, is 400% to 2000%, and if it's all true, much, much higher.
I like those ratios. If a person believes mdin's claims are as likely to be all true as it is to be all lies, then it's worth at least a small position. I happen to have extra money to risk, so I've taken a big position, as I believe it's more likely all true than all false, and even if it's only half true, I'll still gain a little.
You claim it to be evidence, but it is nothing more than questions raised, and hypotheticals.
Some of the questions are good ones. Some of them cause concern. But none of it is hard evidence of a scam.
There are a bunch of clues, like pieces in a jigsaw puzzle where most of the pieces are missing. The best any of us can do is try to find as many as possible, line them up, and try to extrapolate what the full picture really is.
I think that there's more convincing evidence that this is legit than there is that this is a scam, despite all the "evidence" you've provided. Still, I don't think any of us can prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that we're right, on either side of the argument.
Are you saying you don't believe the financial statements, and you think the company's revenues are actually shrinking year over year? I'd be curious what evidence you've seen of that. Please share.
We have other ways of telling that it's actually growing. You know that there are people here who've gone to the stores and warehouse and seen the growth. You know that there are those of us who track website traffic closely, and have seen the growth.
We don't need the financial statements to be verified by a lawyer, although that helps. We have verified them ourselves in our own ways.
The idea that they can't make rent is a piece of fiction, a complete lie.
If someone raises your rent to a price that's beyond reasonable, even if you can pay it, you still move out and find something more reasonable. Right?
That's all that's going on here.
Your argument falls flat because you fail to acknowledge that the brick and mortar stores are only a tiny fraction of this company's revenues.
Also, volume and price going down do not indicate shrinkage in the company itself. I'm confident that most investors know that.
Check the chart on the ibox that shows consistent growth for the last 12 quarters. That's SIGNIFICANT revenue growth EVERY quarter, comparing year-over-year.
There is no way anyone can seriously argue that this company is shrinking.
None of the RECENT promotions were paid for by BRAV. They were paid by someone else.
BRAV has not promoted or diluted in a very long time.
Huh? Certainly a BLOCK POSITION does not imply dilution. It's just a method of selling or buying, which happens whether there's dilution or not.
And WEIGHTED AVERAGE TRADE price is just a way of calculating the average price of a series of smaller transactions that went off at different prices, but which are being considered together, perhaps as part of one block.
Are you saying that the prices being reported to the tape are actually weighted averages, and not the broken down individual transactions?
If so, how can you tell that they're weighted averages? Where does it say that?
Even if you know that they're weighted averages, how does this imply dilution? I see no connection.
Your theory on the slow dump is an interesting threory, but it doesn't add up. On the one hand people say they're old pros at lying. On the other hand you say they're not very good at it. More likely to me that it's just a sign of gettng close to float lockup, OR that people are waiting on news to see what will happen next.
Sigh.
Again, that one incident of false advertising was for a claim that Snorenz could help with sleep apnea. They were indeed told to stop making that claim, and immediately stopped. That was years and years ago. Since then they have only made the allowed claim that Snorenz reduces the volume of snoring.
Do you have any hard evidence of false advertising in the last several years?
The float went up because 133 M previously restricted shares became unrestricted and freely trading, which slightly more than offset the buyback.
Note that the O/S did not go up from that, so it was not dilution. The O/S only went up by the amount from the patent deal.
What % of that 360 Million from VNDM (over 7 months) do you believe is selling?
What % do you believe is buying?
What % of the selling do you believe are shares bought off the market?
Yes, it's good to ask these questions.
We do need to see more evidence of real sales.
Note that if you read the quarterly reports carefully, you'll see that they say that over 90% of the revenues are from distributor agreements. That leaves only about 0.5 million of actual sales. The bottles sell for $10 each for Snorenz, $20 for StemIntense. (HealthEnrich wasn't out yet).
So that's only 50,000 bottles that needed to be sold in the quarter, or fewer (40,000, perhaps) if you account for the higher cost of StemIntense, with StemIntense getting, maybe 20% of sales.
That still would come to about 500 bottles a day needing to be sold of the 2 products combined. If you believe the PR from a few days after internet sales began, there was a lot of pent up demand and they were crushed with orders the first couple of days, before things settled down, so it's possible that much of their "real" sales were in one week in January, directly from their site, and then things got much quieter on their site after that, and most of their revenue since then has been through distributors.
All the evidence seems to support that scenario.
I'm curious if HealthEnrich is producing much revenue. It seems like the kind of product people would take a chance on and tell others about, if it works as well as many on this board have said, and perhaps that's a reason for this quarter coming in better than last.
Also, international agreements should have kicked in this quarter, to make up for internet sales slacking off after that first week of pent up demand being set loose.
Your math is off, I think.
You said over a billion shares.
First, they'd have to raise the A/S to do that.
Second, the 78k loan could only reach a max of 780 million shares.
The A/S here is only double the O/S.
They lowered it earlier this year from a much higher number (10 billion or 12 billion, if I recall) down to 1.5 billion.
The last r/s was a few years ago under previous management.
I think people trying to gauge the believability of your statements need some info.
If this is so obvious, give us some evidence to prove it.
I'd like to see the evidence.
If you don't have evidence, then please clarify that you don't have it, and that your conclusions are based on not being able to conceive or believe any other scenario.
Some people have given evidence against it: that the volume just doesn't support the scenario you describe.
You forget that even if Ray WERE to convert, it would only double the O/S. Given the revenues this company is making, that would just mean that instead of needing to go up 100-fold, the stock price might only go up 50-fold. (I'm just picking nice round numbers here; everyone should do their own estimating of what they think the true value is).
It's way undervalued either way.
And there's a good chance that Ray's telling the truth and has no intent to convert... none of us can know that for sure, one way or the other.
He's going to make millions from the 30 million shares he owns, and he's going to make consulting fees/pay as long as he's employed as a consultant.
His motive for the 78k loan is as I explained in my previous post.
There are terms in the note that Nick CAN'T pay him back until Ray says so.
The whole point of it is to protect Ray's consultant job in case a new board (or Nick) tries to fire him. That's why he has control of when he gets paid back.
I think by "another 50 million" he meant on top of what they've bought back to date, not on top of the previous plan of 80 million from his last update.
I seriously doubt they've come close to that 80 million.
So, it may be that he's just sticking to his original "80 million" plan, and has bought 30 million of it so far, and has another 50 million to go.
Hardly a paint. More like holding steady @ .0017 all day.
At end of day, bid was .0016, ask was .0019.
All trades today were at .0016 or .0017, with over 4,000,000 sh @ .0017, and only 260,000 sh @ .0016.
Last 3 trades were @ .0017, totalling over 235k between 3:45pm and 3:49pm.
I don't see that as a paint.
Wouldn't this just show Celprogen as the owner?
I believe MDIN purchased the exclusive rights to use of the patent, but not the ownership of the patent. Did you interpret it as an actual transfer of ownership?
No PR on it closing, either.
It was all explained in the last conference call.
I believe there's a recording of it online, but if there isn't, you can look for summaries posted on this board by others at around the time of that call, sometime around the end of April or early May.
So, where would you get the proof that ANY company has bought the rights to the use of ANY patent?
They have been profitable for several quarters, so making rent has not been a problem at all. See the financials. No dilution since 2011. They are operating entirely off their own cash flow.
One store being relocated, not closed. That's all. Let's get some accuracy here.