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EORBF -
http://www.amm.com/Article/3154172/Scrap/French-connection-will-take-on-aluminums-red-menace.html
‘French connection’ will take on aluminum’s ‘red menace’
Feb 11, 2013 | 11:56 AM | Jo Isenberg-O’Loughlin
NEW YORK — Is Orbite Aluminae Inc. for real?
On the surface, the multipronged storyline of the can-do, clean-technology company sounds too good to be true. Dig a little deeper, and the bold claims and big promises that have become a trademark of the Montreal-based company’s top management begin to look less like mad science and marketing bluster and a lot more plausible.
Orbite has got what it describes as a viable, eco-friendly technology to turn mega-mountains of hazardous red mud generated by industrial alumina production using the Bayer process into cold cash by recovering the full commercial value of the material’s constituent products and the land it’s sitting on.
On top of that, the company has a potline full of patents or pending protection on 14 families of intellectual properties covering various aspects of its versatile, proprietary hydrochloric acid-based process. Orbite claims the technology produces alumina and other high-value products—including rare earths—using aluminous clay, bauxite, kaolin, red mud and fly ash at among the lowest costs in the industry.
And it’s taken tangible steps to prove it. In mid-December, the company announced it had successfully produced its first tonne of high-purity alumina (HPA) as part of the initial commissioning and testing activities at its commercial-scale HPA production plant in Cap-Chat, Quebec (amm.com, Dec. 18).
Then, only days ago in an announcement issued jointly with Paris-based Veolia Environmental Services, Orbite said that the two companies had signed an exclusive worldwide collaborative agreement for the treatment and recycling of red mud (amm.com, Feb. 5).
"We had been approached by a few groups but this one was extremely well positioned," Richard Boudreault, president and chief executive officer of Orbite, told AMM in an interview. "Veolia is a very large firm, they are international, they are extremely well capitalized and—if I’m not mistaken—they have been approached previously by many in industry and government to treat red mud but didn’t have a solution."
Other factors favoring the tie-up range from the relationships Veolia had already established with environmental regulators around the world to its ability "to get things done," Boudreault said.
"They are strong operators. We plan to build 50 or 100 of these plants eventually, so that’s key. They can also protect our intellectual property in many different countries, and that is critical to us," he said. "The agreement we signed is not to do some trials somewhere here or there but it is to build and operate the first plant. Naturally, (Veolia) are going to be looking for a situation where strong demand commands a high price for land, because you are recovering land." Other prerequisites include a significant accumulation of red mud, as well as an interest in, and strong regulations requiring, treatment of the hazardous material.
"As incredible as it may seem, China has a regulation on red mud," Boudreault said. "They have a mandate to recover 20 percent of the red mud accumulated there by 2015. So the nexus of interest is Europe and China. "The site could be a legacy red mud deposit that has been in existence for maybe more than 100 years, especially in Germany and France," he said. "There is a big will on the part of the governments to recover the land. These problems do not go away."
Boudreault noted that worldwide stocks of untreated red mud are pegged at almost 3 billion tonnes and estimates that some 100 million tonnes of red mud join the global stockpile annually. As a rule of thumb, some 2 tonnes of red mud are generated for every 1 tonne of alumina produced, he said.
But Orbite’s ambitions go way beyond mining the worldwide red mud mound. "Our vision is to change the alumina industry by building up to 10 smelter-grade alumina (SGA) plants serving Quebec, the third-largest aluminum-producing region in the world, building several high-purity alumina plants and licensing our SGA technology internationally," Boudreault said of the road ahead.
And so far, so good, he claims, citing the startup and initial production of high-purity alumina at Cap-Chat. Plans call for non-commercial production of HPA to continue throughout the commissioning of the plant at a rate of less than 1 tonne daily. "The first HPA samples for customers in Europe, America and Asia will be shipped as the material becomes available throughout the first quarter of 2013," Boudreault said.
Orbite expects the Cap-Chat plant to start commercial production in the second quarter, with plans to offer HPA powder and HPA granules ranging from 4N to an eventual 6N (99.9999 percent) purity.
Cap-Chat is slated to hit its full production stride of 5 tonnes of alumina per day by the end of this year. The company also anticipates the production of gallium and scandium once a planned recovery circuit is complete in mid-2013.
Orbite is counting on two key drivers to deliver profits and growth, Boudreault said. One is the uniqueness of its patented technology, which he said "differs significantly from the rest of the HPA industry and is expected to produce higher purities at lower production costs than existing producers."
The other is changing dynamics in the target markets for the material. HPA is used principally for the production of synthetic sapphires, which in turn serve as substrates in the LED (light emitting diode) industry as well as in displays for hand-held devices and televisions. These markets are expected to experience significant growth over the next few years, Boudreault said, with the LED industry getting a healthy boost from regulations in numerous countries for phasing out the manufacture and sale of incandescent light bulbs.
While Orbite does not intend to license its HPA technology, it does plan to award licenses for its SGA know-how internationally in return for a revenue royalty. The company’s first SGA plant is said to be in the feasibility study phase, with Phase 1 construction targeted to begin next year and initial production beginning in 2015.
Although the SGA plant site selection process is not complete, Orbite has said it is negotiating with Moscow-based aluminum producer United Co. Rusal and other potential joint-venture partners.
The company has already set the stage for further growth by acquiring exclusive mining rights over a total of nearly 145,000 acres, including the Grande-Vallee property, which contain indicated resources of 1 billion tonnes that could potentially satisfy 50 percent of Quebec’s annual alumina imports for more than 50 years, Boudreault said.
With HHSE, I have a new appreciation for the difficulty of being a contrarian! I can see myself years from now patting mysefl on the back for patiently weathering the 'growing pains' of what would seem -- after the fact -- an obviously undervalued and growing business. Or I might feel really stupid for not seeing the warning signs!
I'm still holding, but it's getting difficult!
I'm starting to lean your way ... I still see the marketcap as extremely low so that trumps my dissappointment ... if HHSE has another little run to -- say -- 2 cents, I might sell some of my shares. Also, if we don't hear anything in the next week or two, I might sell some shares at this price (although, by then, it would probably drop down again).
Also, I did not see TITA at my Walmart, so that has me somewhat concerned.
NWBO ... I'm not sure exactly (don't have time to investigate) but found this on yahoo... but, once again, I'm not complaining!
In yesterday's presentation on Slide 2, sLinda Powers highlighted a number of milestones with DCVax-L for GBM and NWBO reaching first interim analysis in the by trial end of Q2 or Q3 2013. In Slide 14, highlights 6-month of progression free survival to meet primary endpoint of trial-only 1/3 as long as extension of PFS seen in Phase I/II trials.
The DCVax-Direct Phase I/II "All Comers" trial is progressing for patients with colon, liver, pancreas, melanoma & misc.with key endpoints Safety & Tumor Regression. If NWBO shows striking results from terminal patients with inoperable tumors they hit the pall out of the park immediately as they expect to have results in this trial in 1H of 2013
NVLX - sold my 'average down' shares for a good gain but am keeping about 1/3 of my shares.
Thanks ... this increases my skepticism towards the rest of the business ... if we can get a little more spike tomorrow, it will be nice to get out of NVLX with a nice gain ... very lucky again!
HHSE - update from SEC compliance officer meeting is yet another failed milestone. If I hadn't seen the update on MacMedia, I would probably be selling shares ... as I don't see MacMedia involved in any trickery, I guess this is is just another example of over-exhuberance or bad luck.
After missing the deadline, would have been nice to hear something!!
I've never heard about this trend ... but sounds sketchy ... this company already is suspicious so justing happen to expand into this 'hot' industry seems to be a little too convenient. I'll have to think more, but might sell some/all shares tomorrow, especially if there is another spike.
NVLX: I'm not kidding 'Nuvilex Enters Medical Marijuana Arena'
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nuvilex-enters-medical-marijuana-arena-200700130.html
NVLX +65% ... are you kidding...! Harleyman, you still with me here!?
ADXS - the drop earlier today was not huge volume ... it seems an attempt by the accumulator to scare momentum traders out of their positions. Very bullish, IMO!
Yes, I'll take it! Let's hope some of that luck brings us good trial results and we'll all be sitting extremely well!
ADXS - quick 17%, gosh that trade worked out quite well (so far)! Very volatile so let's see from here.
ADXS - back in my swing-trade shares @ .106.
Great information ... thanks!
You are an excellent trader (15 cents was perfect) but just not available to do it!
I'm debating whether to hold those ADXS funds to potentially re-invest if it hits the sub 11 or I might load more EORBF. Yes, I'm beating a dead horse but they've already completed their bankable feasiblity study, built and *paid* for their mine and have all these potentual spin-off businesses because of their technology (which has been validated by the BFS). Have signed an agreement with a the world's *largest* integrated waste management company (Veolia 30,000 employees) and they have a signed a memoradum of understanding with the world's *largest* alunimum producer (Rusal 72000 employees) to liscense their tech for -- guess what -- mining alumina!!
There are more good things, but too much to mention.
And yes, it is like very much like AMY, but recall AMY's technology is valid ... it (unforunately) turned out just too costly which seems not the case here as EORBF passed not only its pre-feasibility but it's operational! (Just HPA not yet SGA ... but that's more details I'd prefer get into right now.)
Perhaps potential buyers are worred Brookfield could cease control and block any sale agreement?
Yes, beyond this big move today there is much more potential ahead! If we can hit 3-4 cents (my previous cost average before averaging dow an at 1.0, 1.1, 1.3 and 1.7 cents), I'll now be up quite a bit!
Assuming the mgmt is incompetent about accounting/uplist and communicating realistic goals, that does not -- in and of itself -- change the company fundamentals ... we'll see but these mis-steps might be a huge gift.
Awesome ... everything is doing so well this year! We could revert back down , but still nice to see ... my average downs are looking good at least!
I was laughing but ran out of posts to reply last night! For SAN, all I want to know is if the 44% (on page 9 at the front and page 32 at the end section) indeed really means that 44% of consumer loans are non-performing (and are likely to be written off).
It seems so, and if so, it looks like the previsions address a big part of the time bomb in their portfolio of $55B Euros.
I think this is correct, and I'm also pretty bullish here.
(The baby had his vaccinations and was up all night ... I'm too tired to look at this more today, but we can revisit later!)
PBSV - damn, made about 20% but -- if I had held a little longer --could have made 60%!
Has anyone spotted TITA on the shelves at Walmart? Was a date provided?
Big volume at 14 cents ... others seem to have the same idea but it could, of course, break either way. I have a bid in case it drops back to 11 but I hope it doesn't!
What is QS?
ADXS - I have no idea what to do but sold 20% of my ADXS holding at 14 cents ... already up to 14.4 but not complaining!! Just reducing my risk a little bit and will probably hold the rest quite tightly...
I've wondered if part of the issue is simply general overall market sentiment was poor last year? ('risk-off'). I certainly was scared to buy at 3 cents, but if our investment thesis is validated I won't be as afraid next time a similar trend occurs.
Not until at least one of HHSE, ADXS, VRSEF, etc etc REALLY take off will I consider our investing approach as validated ... the share prices swing so tremendously and the developments take such a long time it is impossible to really know, at this point, whether we have done a good job at being ahead for the market or not.
With HHSE audit, ADXS trial results, VRSEF sales, etc, etc, this really seems to be the year to evaluate our approach. Of course, I think 2013 be a great year ... but -- if not -- in 2014 and beyond I'll probably stick more to large caps. I'm not pessimistic just saying that this year should (hopefully) yield lots of insights!
Yes, they could still -- to some degree - be exaggerating earnings etc ... I agree on that point.
I'll have to compare ... XIN has been paying their dividend for years and actually increased it ...the yield for XIN is also signficantly higher ... but I don't know much about ONP (wasn't it Carson Block's first 'hit piece').
I guess the fraud scenario would be to pay a dividend, boost the share price and then dilute at the higher price to recover the dividend ... XIN has never diluted, after years of the dividend, so I don't see this scenario to be likely.
ADSX. I hope you are wrong but it is definately a possibility ... of course, I also still like the long-term fundamentals but I'm not afraid to swing-trade 20-30% of my holdings to lock in some gains (although some upside could be missed).
XIN - up aother 10% today!!
ok a fourth scenario!!!! (but I have not seen any articles to pump).
ADXS - I posted this on the other board ... the action is very strange and there is certainly a lesson to learn. These are the scenarios ... if it is 2 or 3 then it means that we are doing the right strategy 'buy and hold' based on fundamentals. If it is 1, then we got lucky.
1. Some news leaked the last few weeks indicating fundamentals have significantly improved, thus reflected in the share price.
2. Market inefficiency resulting random share-price swings and mis-pricing not correlated to fundamentals (swings between fear and greed, etc).
3. Deliberate manipulation to trigger stop-losses and scare 'weak hands' into selling shares prior to this recent accumulation.
I can see all three being true but have no idea!
I had averaged down a few times and have actually broken even. I have a lot of trading shares but might try to swing trade a few between 13 and 15.
With this crazy price-action over the previous year, I'd really like to know what is going on:
1. Some news leaked the last few weeks indicating fundamentals have significantly improved, thus reflected in the share price.
2. Market inefficiency resulting random share-price swings and mis-pricing not correlated to fundamentals (swings between fear and greed, etc).
3. Deliberate manipulation to trigger stop-losses and scare 'weak hands' into selling shares prior to this recent accumulation.
I can see all three being true but have no idea!
Per my edit on the previous slide ... the 2.8 is houshold mortgages that are *not* related to realestate ... at this hour my brain has quit working so I forget the name but could this be loans that use the house as collateral? (Home equity loan?)
If so, then my analysis stands ... otherwise, how can you have a mortgage where the purpose is not real estate?
Now someone please get me a whiskey and advil!!
SAN - ok Malc, I had some time to do some real DD (I think).
http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=9050418-1198-1047797&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=6454&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fsym%253dsan
Slide 31 shows Dec 2012 total Spain mortgage exposure of $55B Euros. Thus they could write off 34% of their Spanish mortgage portfolio in 2013 and these losses would have already been booked in 2012!! (=$18.8B/$55B)
This sounds very decent! ... but there is a big BUT...
Slide 32 shows non-performing loans 'with real estate purpose' at 47.7%!! I'm not sure that 'real estate purpose' and 'mortgage' are synonymous but -- if so -- it looks virtually half could be written-off!!
Wikipedia "Many loans become non-performing after being in default for 90 days, but this can depend on the contract terms."
Furthermore, weighted by dollars this could be worse! I would guess mortgages with higher outstanding balances would be more likely non-performing. This, however, is offset that some of these balances will be collected... (it would be interesting to know the % of non-performing loans that are historically collected).
Considering that even more loans might become non-performing next year (offset somewhat by non-performing from this year becoming current again) it is conceivable that eventually 2/3 of the mortgage portfolio might need to be written off!! ... I'm guessing we could see another $10B in provisions again next year but -- by then -- we should be pretty free and clear.
With an improving economy and aggressive provisions SAN looks in really good shape for the long term. With my guess above, EPS will see a strong recovery not until 2015 but for a large institution as this the market should anticipate this with a higher share price in advance. Of course, there are the other arms of the business but those look reasonably healthy so I think we have a very good buy and hold!!
In summary, SAN is indeed going to NEED these provisions, but they are fortunate to have sufficient profitability that this significant issue is being rapidly contained.
I might even look to buy some 2015 calls...
Do I miss anything??
Edit: I could be totally wrong as I'm not sure what is the 2.8 number on household mortagages slide 32... if 2.8% are non-performing, that sounds much more reasonable than 47%, but then the provisions seem extremely excessive. I'm not confident I've understood the definitions correctly.
My China holdings have been destroyed so the future does not matter much at this point. I essentially only hold now:
(1) XIN ... they pay a dividend, and why would a fraud pay out money? ... on fundmentals its a 10-bagger so is a 'winning bet' even if 70% chance of fraud, SEC intervention etc, ... as a small portion of my portfolio I don't mind the risk. Plus they have US assets, were IPO, etc etc. If they had to delist to the pinks, the share price would implode but the buybacks would and dividend would help keep things in check (potentially)... yes, they might quit the dividend and buyback, but I'm not sure why the would? (And I up about 30% on this one ... which helps.)
(2) LLEN ... is headquartered in US .... I actually have a sell-bid here, but it has not hit my price.
Damn I'm stubborn!
I've had a very good run this year, My worst-performer has been LPH. Yes, you told me so!!!
Per MSFT, I alo like the options. October 2013 $25 puts -- for instance -- are $1.16 ... (thus if it dips you get to buy the stock at a 4.6% discount and if it doesn't dip there is free cash). But the stock is tempting too!
For large-caps, I kind of also like Canon (CAJ), they had a poor quarter recently but a nice 4% dividend ... I have no $$$ right now but might look into more in the future.
SAN ttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-19/bank-of-america-delinquent-loans-mean-losses-mortgages.html
This is the scenario that has me worried...
"I see making large provisions out of 2012 profits to protect against real estate losses in 2013 as a positive"
That's exactly what I want to investigate ... I'm not familiar (1)the criteria for establishing when a non-performing loan becomes a loss (2) $$$ of non-performing loans that have yet to be booked 'officially' as a loss.
Scenario A
- any loan 90 days-past-due is considered a write-off and current year write-offs are less than these provisions. Then this would be really good, especially if the economy improved!
Scenario B
- loans are not officially written off until they are a full year past due and a huge amount -- in excess of these provisions --is sitting on the portfolio 9 months past due. This would be not nearly so good!
I'm guessing we are closer to scenario A but I just don't know. If you have any insights, it would be really helpful.
(Yes, I'm probably being a bit overly analytical/skeptical, but it would be good to understand the nuts and bolts. I might also consider going over-weight if the numbers look really good.)
Reminds me of a movie where, to save time, a guy ordered a shot of 'Scotch and Pepto Bismol'!