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LPH: stink bids wont get filled after all. Oh well, I guess the market has more confidence in LPH than many of us thought. But then again, it's still early in the day.
LPH: what bounce timeline from your previous experience?
I wasn't involved with LPH before the previous acquisition. Does anyone remember the timeline there - from authorizing new shares/warrants/preferreds to date of acquisition to date of actual opening of facility.
Just wondering why LPH even needs to announce this now if the acquisition isn't completely firmed up yet, or maybe that means this is a signal that an acquisition is VERY imminent, don't you think?
Drexion I think BOTH RedChip AND Navellier knew about it beforehand. But if LPH really is sitting on a particular opportunity at this moment, I don't think they really would hesitate, no matter what the stock does for the short term of a few days to a few weeks. The sooner they have a third rock-solid facility pumping oil to users the sooner their bottom line increases, is how they look at it.
But if RedChip announced a target REDUCTION, that seems fishy as expansion, if anything, should INCREASE share price one year out. Their price targets are not 3 month or 6 month targets and look how quickly the second facility bumped up EPS.
As an insider, if Navellier knew this in advance but other shareholders did not, then LPH has committed some type of securities fraud in collusion, whether intentionally or accidentally.
Yes Glen all my LPH is marginable over at E*Trade, but there is a stipulation at E*Trade of PPS exceeding $2.00 to be marginable. During the early September low point, I had averaged down so heavily that I had very little else in my main account and I got a margin call forcing me to liquidate securities from another MF firm (which I had been planning on doing eventually). Fortunately it ended well as E*Trade said they'd wait till the stock sale closed and the wire came through.
This time around I have about 46 percent of portfolio in other equities so I could conceivably margin to average down even if LPH drops below $2 for a few days, but not sure I want all eggs in the same basket, then again, why not, I did it before and I have more faith in the business model of LPH than I did before, if anything.
NEP: averaged down from low 7s ended up with 25% portfolio at 6.82 cost basis, until the other day when LPH tanked on a day when NEP was green, so I traded NEP for LPH (not all just most of it). So now I only have about 9% in NEP and I've just assumed the minor NEP losses are now gonna be redeemed by my additional LPH holdings sooner or later. Sleeping better at night, too, I might add, no more dreams about oil wells going dry, LOL. But I'm still interested in NEP's outcome, just with a smaller stake.
Been there done that. It's difficult for a long investor like myself to be convinced to take the whole farm at once and "go to cash", despite occasional ideal times to do so. As a result, I consolidate my portfolio at the beginning of a pullback into very limited holdings which I believe will see a big upside based on fundamentals that is likely to shine through even during the middle of a tightening period. Of course we can all be dead wrong at any time, either traders or longs. My "core" focus is on coal and oil, specifically those which have earnings release cycles in early 2011, such that even though 10Q release dates may happen in the middle of a tightening cycle, I still expect PPS to pop well above current levels. But with just about everything else I invest in, I have learned to get out before the going gets tough, then use a watch list for a good re-entry point. But since history never quite exactly repeats itself, sometimes my moves don't give maximum profit, but at least they don't leave me permanently underwater (I won't sell low any core holding) and I usually still show a great profit after tightening is over. Case in point - LPH, my cost basis was underwater during the spring 2010 correction by as much as -17 percent, yet I eventually made out with around 70 percent profit. On the other hand, with LLEN, I didn't sell recently at the high cuz last year the December earnings produced nary a blip from the post-earnings sell-the-news, yet this year there was a fairly large sell-the-news because of macro effects. I'm still 30 percent over my cost basis in LLEN, so I am going to stay long to not miss the spring earnings release cycle or potential spikes from acquisition announcements that are being hinted at.
Whether you're a trader or a long, GLTA.
CPI: Sounds like their justification for a rate hike to me. Wait and see.
What percent cash are folks heading into the "rate adjustment threat weekend", LOL. Just curious for those willing to share.
Me? I reduced the number of positions by about 2/3, but still am basically all in. But I'm focusing on stocks where I see future good news and earnings as a certainty, and medium short term news highly probable based on demand (coal and oil). Also trying to avoid the double whammy of things that might get hit by shorts taking advantage of macro news and fear.
Imagine the trading advantage to knowing the script before market close, LOL.
LLEN: if today had been the only day down, I'd agree that it is due to the announcement of a 2011 freeze, but since the downdraft started 2 days before earnings, more likely this is just the collective behavior of many investors' trading behavior around the time of earnings release, which way too common in all China stocks right now. They are all taking profits after the recent run at the beginning of the peak coal seasons which had the advantage of being right before earnings, and now they are all thinking that next earnings is pretty far off and without a new catalyst the macro effects in China will push PPS down just a bit. I don't have any doubts that we wil exceed the previous highs but depending on the macro effects it might not runup again until a month before next earnings.
Coal: follow the example by oil distrib's IR, such as when the PRC announces changes in wholesale oil pricing mechanisms, Longwei Petroleum makes sure their IR explains how their profit margins can be successfully maintained in this situation.
LLEN: Was CC really that negative on acquisition? Over on yahoo a bunch of Yahoos are trying to spin negative sentiment from LLEN's conference call so as to drop PPS after earnings. Typical traders who want to buy back lower, which is OK by itself, tired of all the spin-BS though. I'm curious as to what did their conference call REALLY say - were acquistions discussed and/or type of financing?
Wow, that's a lot of SEC filings for one day. CFO must have been real busy.
LTUS: Nice entry point PPS now: $1.07 bids. Apparently the market reacted wrong to news, IMHO.
As per my previous post today:
LTUS is positioned very well with their construction nearing completion, a good mix of prescription drugs selling to 70% hospitals, and good top management.
IMHO today's news reflects a smart management decision. Trying not to over-extend with starting a new expansion project in Inner Mongolia while still finishing a few months yet on the new facility is a wise decision for cash-flow.
It won't take very long until the Beijing facility starts making a difference to the bottom line, so there will be plenty of opportunity in the future to use earnings from that for other expansions. The land sale should be healthy to expedite finishing the Beijing facility quickly.
The knee-jerk reaction of the market to today's news might be neutral since investors love to hear about more expansions rather than core-refocusing. However, the longer term impact on PPS should be very positive since it gives investors more confidence that there will not be poor cash flow management that might go along with future dilutive financing if LTUS had instead tried to run 2 major expansions simultaneously.
LTUS is positioned very well with their construction nearing completion, a good mix of prescription drugs selling to 70% hospitals, and good top management.
I agree that trying not to over-extend with starting a new expansion project in Inner Mongolia while still finishing a few months yet on the new facility might not be wise for cash-flow, and investors might not react well to future dilutive financing.
The knee-jerk reaction of the market to today's news might be neutral since investors love to hear about more expansions rather than core-refocusing. However, the longer term impact on PPS should be very positive since it gives investors more confidence that there will not be poor cash flow management that might go along with dilutive financing if LTUS had instead tried to run 2 major expansions simultaneously.
Holding LLEN too. Avg. cost basis $8.25 and based on a combination of last year's charts and the growth factored in, I anticipated LLEN attaining a maximum PPS just before this earnings report (which it did nicely), and then perhaps a 10 percent drop followed by a larger maximum PPS around 25 percent higher at the time of next earnings report. Since my unrealized profit at this point is about 4$ per share, I didn't want to pay uncle Sam short term gains of a buck per share when the anticipated drop after earnings should be in the same ballpark of less than or equal to a buck per share. Hate to give Uncle Sam extra money.
LLEN - TTM EPS ^5%, TTM P/E -4.8%.
Too quick to speak, Gorilla. Sell the news is happening now, LLEN is coming down from a peak of ~12.53 back to around 12.16. Blink and you'll miss it.
IMHO "sell the news" was already priced into the market 2 days ago after LLEN peaked at the mid-13s PPS it dropped to 12$. Each investor always trying to think one step ahead of everyone else, LOL. Pretty soon we'll be selling the news 90 days in advance of the next 10Q.
2/3 Sold 6.20s, time to buy back???
Decisions, decisions -- NEPs trading range is such an ever-changing enigma, it's hard to judge at what reference point PPS is oversold versus overbought. Looking good now to double my position (well, actually back to 2/3 of what I had last week).
BURP, focus on the positive: I'll bet you can get some REAL CHEAP calls right now to more than make up for the almost worthless calls that you might have bought a month ago, LOL. Seriously undervalued here but of course a major migraine for longs.
LPH 8K just released. Highlights:
LPH managment projects earnings to grow 46% to $500M in FYE2011 (projected)
More warrants have been exercised since the last news. Now there are only 11.6M warrants outstanding, down from about 12.9M a month ago.
Projected 2011 EPS = $0.62.
** Looks like Toups is taking an interest in IR, better than the old CFO.
8K just released. Highlights:
LPH managment projects earnings to grow 46% to $500M in FYE2011 (projected)
More warrants have been exercised since the last news. Now there are only 11.6M warrants outstanding, down from about 12.9M a month ago.
Projected 2011 EPS = $0.62.
** Looks like Toups is taking an interest in IR, better than the old CFO.
LLEN: 2 days before earnings sell-off, LOL. Actually started yesterday. Jeez, think China might switch from coal to Natural Gas in the next 2 months ... NOT!
I sold 6 non-energy equities early on, before prices in the overall sector started to fall apart. Bought a LOT of LPH. I tend to hide under big energy rocks whenever the sector does this, as I am pretty sure they'll do very well when things improve.
54% portfolio in LPH now. Amazing how a stock gets so much criticism whenever it becomes cheaper. Imagine if consumers were to be that illogical and complain whenever Walmart lowered the price on their favorite LCD HDTV by 5% or 10%. Buy more!
I'm much more optimistic about passing something before Dec. 31st. Obama does not have as big of an ego as you imagine. He has pretty much encouraged hardliners of both sides to compromise. Look at the watered-down health care plan; look at the watered-down financial reform. Both of those bills in final version lost so much of their teeth that the original promoters were sick at the outcome, yet he somehow got everyone to vote for something better than nothing. I think we have a good compromiser in office, but whether something is better than nothing, each can have their own opinion. In the words of Dr. Seuss, progress is never made when "two stubborn Zacks stand face to face, not moving, unbudged in their tracks".
LPH: Doubled my position today. I don't think Navellier or Red Chip know anything the rest of us don't already know about the demand for oil in Shanxi province and LPH's sales growth. But with the impending rate hike in China balanced against high oil prices, in the short term market sentiment is going to be quite volatile in this sector, not just LPH but all China stocks. However, when the dust clears, by the time we get to next earnings report things are going to look very good. My prediction is there will be a run-up after 2/15/11 release of earnings and those who bought in the mid-2.50s will see 1.50 profit.
Doubled my position today. I don't think Navellier or Red Chip know anything the rest of us don't already know about the demand for oil in Shanxi province and LPH's sales growth. However, with the impending rate hike in China balanced against high oil prices, market sentiment is going to be quite volatile in this sector. However, when the dust clears, by the time we get to next earnings report things are going to look very good.
I read that all the time on Bloomberg from the big analysts at Goldman and JPM, yet when announcement day comes, stocks always take a bit hit, anyways. JMHO.
"Any rate hike in China is already baked in the Shanghai IMO"
Almost eliminated margin balance by selling non-energy stocks that could go below my basis price in a blink. Also decided to lighten up on NEP, still in, but more as speculative bet now. Bought more LPH, even though I know there's a chance of catching falling knives, it is limited and I think I know this stock's future behavior fairly well.
Target lowering could help GAAP Q EPS as of 12/31/10, you'll know what I mean on February 15, 2011.
Yeah I'm looking at after hours TNA and there really isn't anything going on right now. Stuck at bid:66.2 ask:66.34, not sure this is gonna be the final news on taxes as it doesn't appear anything is ready to sign off on...What's the deal?
Been watching SGAS, not holding. My interest in microcap natural gas companies in China started in 2009 with China Gas Holdings (HK:0384), then I bought Kunlun Energy (HK:0135) when it was still called CNPC. China has a very aggressive 5 year plan to expand natural gas, but from what I can tell, so far it really hasn't panned out to create huge EPS gains in the stocks I have held or was looking at. Revenues from constructing new distribution pipelines has some nice profit margins, but plain old revenues from supplying customers in the distribution networks seems to have thin margins. In addition, with China now importing considerable amounts of natural gas from new sources, including pipelines from across the border that were just completed, the international wholesale prices were reportedly quite a bit higher relative to prices retail customers were used to paying, which may make it harder for affected companies to make profits on gas distribution without some kind of government price subsidies in the supply chain. Therefore, I decided not to play natural gas in China for the time being until I find a company where the growth due to expansion is pretty certain. SGAS is a fairly small company with only a few networks, and I was watching it to see if it acquired massive new customers via new distribution networks, but so far I didn't see any major changes in the last year, although it's been a few months since I read the SEC filings so I might have missed something. The other negative is that SGAS is pretty thinly traded, so you can move the PPS by trading on one day. SGAS seemed to correlate with all other China stocks during the pullback last summer, and has come back somewhat, but unless I knew of company-specific expansions, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for some huge EPS increase or PPS appreciation this season. Just my opinion FWIW, not an expert in natural gas.
LLEN up premarket Bid:12.79 Ask:13.04
as of 8:52am
CHGY- smallcoal PPS lags bigcoal's trend
CHGY's P/E is ridiculously cheap and there's no reason to believe CHGY's revenues won't benefit as much as other coal company's from higher coal prices and higher demand this year. However, CHGY isn't feeling the love yet but because it's a coal producer there is a high probability it will have it's day in the sun during this winter's coal season, after investors first pile into the most obvious, safest big name coal plays, whose PPS bust out first, then when people see those stocks at high P/E values and with a perception of higher risk of pullback due to rapid PPS increase, then investors follow by buying the smaller and riskier coal stocks later, which still have very undervalued P/Es. It should all happen at some point in the next couple months.
CHGY had a mini-spike early in the fall when earnings came out, but its next earnings are their 10K and so won't be due out for a long time. Usually investors like to pile in during the 2-4 weeks before earnings, and it's a ways off for CHGY. Also, it has lower volume and you don't see a lot of message board posters or news. All of that makes CHGY a sleeper until all of a sudden when the bigger community discovers it sometime during mid-winter and it should shoot up from from the 1.70s/1.80s where it is now all the way to the low-3s to mid-3s, at which point it will STILL be undervalued compared to larger coal companies' P/Es.
Glad I bought CHGY early in the fall when PPS was mid-1.60s, as it is likely to double within 2-3 months. It had a pullback with other China stocks a week ago, but luckily for new investors, it hasn't sprung back yet, making a great entry point with almost zero downside risk and probable 2X upside this winter season if you are a patient investor. GLTA.
WikiLeaks: Quite a few headlines from WikiLeaks make certain other countries look bad which aren't our current allies. Haven't read WikiLeaks yet that make the US look bad, so its almost like a gigantic PR effort that the US claims was not authorized....hmmm... says the conspiracy theorists. You make yourself look better by making your enemies look worse.
Just starting my DD on this one:
From company website, the active antimcrobial ingredient is Eucalyptus globulus, or Eucalyptus oil:
http://www.sinofreshproducts.com/nasal_mist_ingredients.html
Sigma Aldrich cites studies that show Eucalyptus oil exhibits antimicrobial properties but doesn't say whether required concentration for antimicrobial action is within or above concentrations which are safe for humans (the concentration in SinoFresh is very dilute):
http://www.sigmaaldrich.com/life-science/nutrition-research/learning-center/plant-profiler/eucalyptus0.html
However, the NIH's official MedlinePlus online database is more skeptical and rates Eucalyptus oil as "insufficient evidence to rate effectiveness":
http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/druginfo/natural/700.html
Here are two in-vitro study that showed there is an effective concentration range for inhibition of bacterial cultures, not sure how concentrated that is compared to the doses in SinoFresh (important as to whether levels sufficient to actually work are safe for inhalation or not):
http://www.academicjournals.org/ajpp/PDF/pdf2008/Dec/Ghalem%20and%20Mohamed.pdf
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20727725
LLEN: "updrafted" from 3rd to 1st place in my portfolio. Still 11 days from earnings and undervalued compared to its peers, so short term LLEN has room to grow. While the Q ending 10/30 earnings should look look great, actually the NEXT quarter (ending 01/30) will be outstanding because of peak seasonal impacts of high coal demand and higher pricing.
NEP not ready to talk RE planned acquistion
Another key takeway from the much appreciated contribution by BullsOnWallStreet quoted from his BLOG after he talked with IR yesterday:
"2) What about new acquisitions and why didn’t they have a conference call this quarter?"
ANSWER (Paraphrased): "As far as new acquisitions though, if you read the 10Q you will see references to a potential new deal or acquisition that the company has been working on. They are not ready to discuss it. They certainly did not want to have a conference call yet since there would be many questions around future growth prospects, what they’re doing with their cash reserve, etc, and they simply aren’t ready to talk about it."
While the 800K was just for the drilling subsidiary's office, NEP is stating in no uncertain terms that there are other acquisition deals in the works. Also good news for forward-thinking investors.
NEP not ready to talk RE planned acquistion
Another key takeway from the much appreciated contribution by BullsOnWallStreet quoted from his BLOG after he talked with IR yesterday:
"2) What about new acquisitions and why didn’t they have a conference call this quarter?"
ANSWER (Paraphrased): "As far as new acquisitions though, if you read the 10Q you will see references to a potential new deal or acquisition that the company has been working on. They are not ready to discuss it. They certainly did not want to have a conference call yet since there would be many questions around future growth prospects, what they’re doing with their cash reserve, etc, and they simply aren’t ready to talk about it."
While the 800K was just for the drilling subsidiary's office, NEP is stating in no uncertain terms that there are other acquisition deals in the works. Also good news for forward-thinking investors.