I am updating my staus.
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BSPM - I think this is part of their ongoing policy to shoot themselves in the foot - to stop them reaching $4. On Friday didn't they announce some sort of aquisition - did they sell some shares to achieve this?
Or is this the penalty for not going to higher exchange?
rich
BSPM - correcting their adjusted EPS PR mistake?
Wasn't concentrating very hard but think somone said they mucked up adjusted EPS. I assume that's now fixed.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=42250579&symbol=BSPM
rich
So the adusted net income was higher than expected (+13%) at $26M rather than $23. They are producing 3 lines from the aquired plant and their expansion plans are on track.
Anything bad?
rich
What concerns me most is monetary tightening in the next few weeks.
Seriously, the first good jobs report they tighten? That would take a brave politician - not a verb used much in politics. I would have thought unless things were getting hot they would wait till after the mid term elections.
rich
YONG - released excellent Q3 figures but they telegraphed the need to do a massive raise, was it something like 100M, that combined with running into their 2 quiet quarters Q4 and Q1.
From memory LPIH last result was warrant impared without trading turning nasty.
So, LPIH - big paper loss (lots of actual profits)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Longwei-Petroleum-Announces-prnews-1549007467.html?x=0&.v=2
So, that was Tuesday the 16th of Febuary... if you look through that week's closing numbers they were at or about 2.0X and the following week they ended up 2.4X.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=LPIH.OB
SKBI has just released warrant impared results, not a good example as, I think, they PR'd their adjusted earnings numbers lower than they actually were but still it's up strongly before and still up after the release - good job people can see through the PR'd figures huh?
Think CKGT did as well? Can't remember.
CCGY just announced it made a 1 cent for the year and went up to 72 cents - why? Because it actually made 3 cents. (There might have been another imparement) They also are opening a new facility which is larger but why would that matter if your imaginary margins are so small?
The answer is because no one gives a sausage what the GAAP values if they are impared by imaginary non cash charges. Chinese firms are, rightly, emphasising adjusted values and expressly telling everyone the only difference is that one, imaginary, imparement.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-Clean-Energy-Announces-prnews-1707990161.html?x=0&.v=12
rich
Moving up a pink tier
Ok, it's not the destination but it sounds like they are moving up within the Pink designation. It's a move that you would hope they made and they've done that. The pps would seem to rest on credibility since the earnings would appear to be strong going forward so, a bit more credibility is what they've got.
You could argue that's what someone scamming us would do, absolutely true, but I don't see what else they could do other than filling in forms and meeting the set out aims. Well, other than reduce the sale of restricted shares pressuring the pps.
So, we seem to have gone from Limited or No information to current?
The Pink Levels
* OTCQX
* Current Information;
* Limited Information; or
* No Information.
rich
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pink_Sheets
BSPM - if they need to avoid a penalty then it's time to make a hurry. If they want to dilute the stock then I ask them what they think it's worth? Because it isn't $4 - diluting when your not at value is dumb.
I'm going to phone them up.. but I will have to listen to CC first.
rich
IR said they were flexible about it since they were doing their best to uplist. Clearly, everyone involved is going to get more money on NAZ than AMEX - that said some investors think they will enforce penalty.
Me: Just wish they would do an slight R/S and get it done.
rich
BSPM - the 10-K removed a lot of the fears for me - that they managed to get their major prescribed drugs reimbersable was a coup - seemingly unrecognised by the market. Cost controls only applying to one of their drug and it didn't even touch any of that's drugs margins.
My single fear is that "somehow" reimbersable hep b drugs are cheaper than OTC - but even if true they can advertise their solution and not involve a Dr, which will have a cost, at all - seems like they're on a roll to me - they could only raise guidance if the Hep B drug was selling well.
Even the truss company starts earnings in Q2 so there's an extra million in 2011. This month they are harvesting their first crop of herbs to verticilze the production. I could go on
If markets act irrationaly there's only one rational response - which it sounds like your doing. Long live insanity!
rich
SIAF - The O/S has gone up as well by 2 million - this would make sense of the recent selling.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=48467637
That said, it's an expensive process uplisting. It's got to be said it's a gamble - we should keep watching the O/S.
rich
80% of them enjoyed it as well! eom
rich
SIAF - my understanding is that they are releasing restricted shares. So some guys are selling out - (might be just financiers?).
Pro side: It is just part of going to OTC - releasing up some of the float.
Neg side: It could be people bailing.
I think it's creating uncertainty. If it goes to OTC and pays the dividend I suspect there will be less uncertainty, if that's the right phrase.
rich
Interested in the merger bit - talked about getting someone to create more targted content - it would make sense - rather than just putting one show for 15 days.
Booking info could give name and some details about the person. And you target adverts accordingly. Don't know if the screens are per person or shared? But could be much better targted than TV. More internet like.
Can't see that costing 100M though.
Also, love the patented mechanism that when close bus doors it turns on the content and you aren't allowed to turn it off. Very clockwork orange.
rich
BSPM Tough crowd eom
rich
BSPM gapped up Wed and moved up strongly, impatient buyers with their hot news perhaps?
rich
Yes, I think they did a good job of putting together all the pieces and laying it out infront of investors.
rich
PIMCO world's largest bond fund - Ignore West & buy East (+ other devloping)
PIMCO has been warning investors to stay away from developed countries like Britain with heavy debt burdens, recommending instead shifting assets to Asia and developing countries.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PIMCO-sees-Greece-action-rb-371628260.html?x=0&.v=2&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
rich
YONG - they collected pretty much all their cash in Q4 and turned it into fertilizer inventory for the new year (they have to run their small plant full tilt this year but new plant comes on line end of this year). In CC they talked about getting control of distributers (possibly buying the fertilizer arm of one or two) and offering shorter financing terms. They know cash is king... but will they now walk the walk?
rich
End Q4 pps was 2.70 vs Q1 close of 2.58 so it will be an, imaginary, positive effect. Love that... stock does poorly - we get GAAP earnings increase, way to go
I honestly think people were using it as a way to spray dirt on an undervalued stock. I haven't seen any of this level of misunderstanding on NEP, BSPM, SKBI etc etc
rich
CNAM - no problem with sandbags as long as the market can also peek at an upside - which I think they can. Sounds like they've got a plan and they have some warrant cash and bank loans, sounds good and is pretty unique.
rich
CNAM - up in AH and pre market - can it make it in the real market? Could be another earnings survivor?
The PR'd 12M net looked a bit sandbaggy given the margins and the fact they were even considering building a new recyle facility this year - but they said they would update this quarterly which is fine by me.
At $10 it's probably around forward P/E of 11 - too many unknowns to be sure.
rich
Indeed, look at YONG, didn't help them (well at least immediately) - though I think it's skewed by Q2 and Q3 being the big quarters so people aren't going to pile in.
rich
BSPM Yeah, score one for back of the envelope calculations
So, they are moveing from makegood 16 M net income to estimating 18 - 20 . We'll assume that they can at least meet that.
My (err, low ball) estimate using 26 million (ish) shares * 0.87 was 22 M ish - I'm such a pumper. ANYWAY, the real point was that there was a margin of safty at pps $4 - lots of sand bags had been applied by management - however even if you used mangeemnt figures we were undervalued. Which was the point of the investment- the upgrade is gravey.
My finger in the air estimate:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45606855&txt2find=v1.0
Now, if we can stay above $4 - the NAZ beckons.
rich
Things I found interesting in 10-K
They give away one month supplies - I assume this affects margin and more so when they enter an area.
We continue to aggressively advertise this product and has actively maintained a program where consumers can try a one-month supply of the drug for free.
Ownership of "Meipude", the hernia company begins start of Q2
Recent Development
On March 18, 2010, we entered into an agreement to acquire 100% of Xi’an Meipude Bio-Technology Co., Ltd., a Xi’an-based medical equipment and nutrients manufacturer (“Meipude”) for RMB 7.85 million ($1.1million). We officially took control over the operations and the assets of Meipude on March 29, 2010, including its facilities, corporate documents and records, and business licenses and certificates. The Administration for Industry and Commerce of Xi’an Hi-Tech District has also accepted our application to change Meipude’s ownership registration, and we expect to receive the certificate attesting to such change shortly. Meipude manufactures and distributes topical hernia treatment belts, also manufactures a nutraceutical product for treatment of gynecological inflammation in young and middle-aged women. Meipude has been manufacturing and selling its products in Shaanxi and an adjacent province since 2004.
They are unaffected by price controls
For the years ended December 31, 2008 and 2009, our Danshen Granule is the only product subject to price controls which did not affect our gross profit, gross margin and net income in a material respect. It is possible that additional products may be subject to price control, or that price controls may be increased in the future. To the extent that our products are subject to price control, our revenue, gross profit, gross margin and net income will be affected since the revenue we derive from our sales will be limited and we may face no limitation on our costs.
All their major drugs are reimbursable - companies were fighting to get on the list so I suspect that's a good thing. Though note since Hep B drug is not presciptioned it follows from their statement it isn't reimbursed or surely they would have mentioned their best selling drug - something to keep eye on - it's still going to be more convenient than interferon et al and they can advertise it. I don't know how much of the costs reimbursment makes on interferon etc but costs must be substantial.
Under Chinese regulations, patients purchasing medicine listed by the central and/or provincial governments in the insurance catalogue may be reimbursed, in part or in whole, by a social medicine fund. Accordingly, pharmaceutical distributors prefer to engage in the distribution of medicine listed in the insurance catalogue. Currently, our main prescription products are listed in the insurance catalogue.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418133/000118518510000334/biostar10k123109.htm
rich
Asia stocks up after Japan, China economic reports
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Asia-stocks-up-after-Japan-apf-3666352857.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
rich
ChinaDaily on Coal Hikes & Powerplants
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-04/01/content_9673833.htm
rich
CNAM CC - I think they were also hinting about a further recycle facility in 2010 if the deamnd was there - no one asked them they felt compelled to hint. Must listen again to hints...
rich
Sorry, this is my first Pink and I am as jumpy as a kangaroo in a bouncy castle. Just trying to learn as much as possible - I hope I haven't spooked anyone.
rich
Ok, from my, obviously, extensive reading of the subject. There are shares being "unrestricted"... so someone who was restricted is now allowed to sell them. However, restricted are indeed counted towards outstanding according to investopedia.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outstandingshares.asp
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/restrictedstock.asp
Other board members: Please do forgive me, I realise the board is very tense. I'm trying to understand what's going on and making an informaed decision.
rich
I thought they were different... lets call this a learning experience
rich
So they are chaging restricted into outstanding? I assume it could be for paying things but it could also be someone merrily diluting?
rich
CPQQ - guidance fluff
You can feel they have something coming but you need to transmit a low ball expectation to the market.
Work is progressing on the new facilty? Hello? They must have a timeline.
rich
SKBI - in line with expectations guidance same.
NAZ stock with adjusted Earnings $1.82
Even if you divide entire years earnings by 7 million outstanding you end up with 1.38 and then throw in 15% growth you end up with $20 stock - they are guiding 30% plus evaulation in second half of the year - basically when the vaccine facility is running (large increase of revenue on a high margin product).
Imp bits - demand outweights supply and very bullish comment:
Demand for Skystar's products currently outweigh supply, and our recently completed micro-organism facility, as well as the new vaccine manufacturing facility being constructed and certified in accordance with GMP standards, will propel Skystar into a new era of growth
Intreging bit:
"As of December 31, 2009, Skystar has made deposits for 2 potential acquisitions for a total deposit amount of $6,802,704 (RMB 46,400,000). Due diligence of these targets are currently under way. We anticipate that these acquisitions would be treated as asset purchases. The acquisition targets are being reviewed under confidentiality agreements; however, we note that an appraisal report was obtained in January 2010 for one of the targets and we expect to complete our due diligence by June 2010. The targets in question were selected because of the ability to achieve GMP certifications quickly," concluded Mr. Lu.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Skystar-BioPharmaceutical-iw-2646065649.html?x=0&.v=1
If I was a betting man I reckon there will be a mild sell off after the run up into the quieter Q1 & Q2 quarters. I'm holding.
rich
CPQQ - they PR'd there last release - in Q3.
http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/ir/?Module=MediaViewer&GUID=10813649&Ticker=CPQQ
http://www.chinapower-equipment.com/
rich
CPQQ - testing (cheaper) supplier
CPQQ have talked about getting anther source of amorphous alloy - they were testing supply from Sept 2009
We expect that a new source of amorphous alloy strip will soon be available from Beijing Advanced Technology & Science Materials Co., Ltd. (“AT&M”). We have signed an agreement with AT&M whereby we have been given priority to purchase amorphous alloy strip products.
In September 2009, AT&M completed their test production of amorphous alloy strip, using their facility that has an annual capacity of 10,000 metric tons. Zhongxi has used some of AT&M’s test strip to manufacture test cores and transformers that are permitting electric power grid organizations and other transformer makers to test and to validate that the cores and transformers using AT&M’s amorphous alloy will perform as expected, are equivalent in quality and performance to production that uses Hitachi’s amorphous alloy, and are qualified for production purchases. Zhongxi believes that this second source for amorphous alloy strip, when approved for production, is likely to help alleviate the raw material constraint that has been a concern in the global transformer industry.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418134/000118518510000308/chinapower10k123109.htm
rich
CPQQ - last year they issued PR that said they intend to do at least 200% increase this year.
They haven't got the facility running in Q4 because if they did we'd see increased revenues. They sell what they can make. I think they were aming for Q1 / Q2 time frame but when I asked about it it was to hush hush to tell me. From 10-K...
As a result, the demand for high-efficiency amorphous alloy cores and transformers greatly exceeds the current supply. The order backlog continues to grow.
Now, no doubt, tomorrow they will change this to 5% more and the plant will be completed in 2015 but anyway that was the information from Q3 last year. The growth amount going forward and the plant coming in the first half of the year will be largest influence on stock price.
rich
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418134/000118518510000308/chinapower10k123109.htm
Well, we know from the preliminary PRs that the revenue results are good. I don't know if they've updated the guidance but I think they were asked at the last CC if they could do at least $1.28 for 2010. I think they said yes.
The quarter results look like 30+ cents.
What's the overhangs with the stock? Basically, the market could be worried we pull a FUQI and have problems with restatment. The 10-K, on the Thurs before expiry, should quell this fear (or confirm it )
I have april contracts as well but of course it could be Squeaky-bum time by then We'll see.
rich
Covers 2008 - as was pointed out to me. This covers 2008 not 2009.
rich
GCHT - yes your right it says 2008, sorry.
rich