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mr_cash4...
What do you think that would do to gold?
Thanks.
Chart...
omandan...
I began closing out my golds Jan.20th. and finished cashing out this week. Unreal returns. When will it slow down?
Who knows?
How come the futures are up tonight?
POKERSAM...
Good to see you.
Hope all is well.
oops!
omandan...
With the Dow and Nasty sporting bullish MACD crossovers, I put the last 1/3 back in at the close today. All in on the long side.
kenwong...
Just my observation here.
POKERSAM knew no humility from his top call through Jan.20th(the day of the big kerplunk).
However, the market has a way of handing out the humblings. The last 8 trading days since that Jan.20th kerplunk are going against PS bearish stance, hence (IMO) his humbleness.
I agree he's been getting beaten around the last 8 trading days, but what goes around, comes around. Those who were long since his top call had to listen to his boastfullness. Now the shoe is on the other foot.
You're kidding, right??...
POKERSAM ain't going nowhere. He loves these boards just like the rest of us. Just taking a break, but rest assured, he's reading every post.
Close your eyes for a minute POKERSAM:
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The Nasdaq MACD had a bullish crossover today as did the Dow.
omandan...
It's usually as flat as a pancake leading into the announcement.
rcptrader...
I haven't been following too close.
What index has to make a new high before the call of the century gets nixed?
I'm assuming these 2 don't count:
POKERSAM...
Lighten up Francis.
Grow a thick skin.
From the sounds of things, when we make new highs, you're going to need it.
POKERSAM...
My system has me 2/3 long. A MACD crossover on the SPX will put me 100% long.
This being the case, I predict tomorrow and the rest of the week up.
2X-Be-Me...
It appears to me that both the upper and lower lines of the wedge have significance because of the way price acts when tagging them.
The most bullish case I see from the chart is the MACD. When that MACD down trend line was broken to the north, it signaled a change. It is a weekly time frame chart so try to eliminate the daily excitement.
The $bpcompq and $nasi remain on the buy keeping me 2/3 long. If/when the SPX daily MACD crosses over, the other 1/3 goes back in long. If the nasi and bpcompq trigger sells b/4 the daily MACD crosses, I'll return to cash. The top 3 charts on my list move me in and out, in 1/3 increments.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID345695
Thanks for the votes.
The apex...
Of the wedge is full.
omandan...
Congrats to you.
I thought maybe you would have used more than just Steve Smith, but evidently, he was enough. We couldn't stop him.
omandan...
I'm ready!
woodfish...
I was thinking that the negative divergence and rising wedge had failed (4th chart) due to the MACD rising through it's downtrend line and the price breaking up through the upper wedge trend line.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID345695
I couple that, along with my 1st 3 charts on the buy signal and I remain bullish.
I will scale out of my 100% long position 1/3 at a time as each of those top 3 charts trigger a sell signal.
POKERSAM...
I'll take a stab here.
You're trying to see if someone will notice the oval circles encasing each rally are diminishing as the uptrend continues on, leading to the last "small" oval on the right side of your chart.
Is this to imply the current "small" rally is over as depicted by your small circle?
I also wouldn't read anything into the fact that the RSI is ticking 70, just as it did in March 2003.
Now I've got a chart for you to pick apart:
omandan...
G
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B
E
A
R
S
POKERSAM...
My top 3 charts show why I remain bullish and feel this market has not topped. When the top 3 charts turn negative, each will pull me out, 1/3 at a time.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID345695
What do you see in the top 3 charts that has you so utterly bearish?
You obviously have reasons to support your bearish stance. Is there something you see in my charts, or is it something else?
omandan...
Have your boys tighten their chinstraps and give it their best shot.
You and I both know how good the Bears defense is. They'll probably score more points than your offense does. LOL!
POKERSAM...
I had us above that line last week. Today clearly shows the breakout:
mrC4...
I agree with your bullish, bullish, bullish as noted on my top 3 charts:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID345695
As per the plan...
Another 1/3 went in long today.
The $nasi crossed over, after the close, so the last 1/3 goes in Monday.
All in.
Fear?
That's for the other guy.
POKERSAM...
Using the charts from Ted Burge, this is what I see:
Nasdaq Composite @ 2273 is above 2240 resistance with PnF bullish to 2440
NDX @ 1702 is below 1710 resistance with PnF bullish to 1830
QQQQ @ 41.91 is below 42.00 resistance with PNF bullish to 55.00
$SOX @ 507 is above 500 resistance with PNF bearish to 442
$OEX at 579 is above 575 resistance with PnF bullish to 655
$SPX @ 1271 is above 1220 resistance with PnF bullish to 1480
$INDU @ 10,853 is above 10,700 resistance with PnF bearish to 10,450
NYSE Composite @ 7934 is above 7650 resistance with PnF bullish to 9400
$RUT @ 690 is above 645 resistance with PnF bullish to 700
All the above that have broken through resistance, now has become support.
The above is dominantly bullish. No opinions of mine. Just charts.
My own stuff, has the $bpcompq back on the buy at yesterday's close, which will put me 1/3 in long.
The denmo6 still needs a MACD crossover for another 1/3 and the $nasi needs a crossover before the final 1/3 can go back in.
M on DJIA...
DJIA: Outlook for 2006
Review of the 2005 prognosis
Exactly a year ago two scenarios were discussed here for the Dow. The difference was just minimal as in both cases a new top was expected during the first half of the year - in the end a volatile sideways phase between 9.500 - 12.000 points was projected. The year should be marked by that correction phase.
In reality the trading range was significantly lower: the Dow stood between 10.000 and 11.000 all year long. Indeed there was the yearly top during the first quarter, afterwards it went down for a while. However, what was not expected was the dynamic rise during October and November - according to the outlook a weaker period was more likely here.
Long term chart technic
Basically one could say that the expected correction - even though with some deviations - did occur. As the heretofore long term Outlook was more lent towards sideways or slightly lower prices, 2006 should more likely be down.
The technical overall picture, however, has changed a bit, as a result of the 2005 patterns. These are clearly corrective, with a declining amplitude to the autumn low. The rise of the past weeks was rather impulsive. It is therefore highly likely that this sideways move is to be counted as a complex triangle, which in the medium term allows for an impulsive count. Concretely it is correction wave (4) and the latest rise is wave (5).
Monthly chart of the Dow (unchanged from the 2002 outlook)
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/news/news/viewpic.php?picid=042/54/90
Monthly chart of the Dow (cpi adjusted)
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/news/news/viewpic.php?picid=042/54/91
Daily chart of the Dow
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/news/news/viewpic.php?picid=042/54/92
Associated with that, of course, is a material change of the long term scenario. Still in the last yearly outlook the prognosis chart from spring 2002 was presented, with the restriction that at around 11.000/12.000 the long term alternative count would bite. Within a multi-year wave /C/ during 2005 - 2008 a bear wave to underneath 8000 points was expected. This negative view has to be altered due to last year's patterns. Basically the original outlook from 2002 persists.
However, this in no way implies that during the next 12-24 months the Dow will climb steeply because chart technically nothing happened during 2005. To the contrary: With a high likelyhood the Dow will remain at the level of 2005 ! What changes, however, is the downside target. This now is "only" at 9.500 points. Long term that expected retreat is counted as correction wave /2/, which at the end of 2006 implies the start of a three to four year long bull wave. But until autumn 2006 the drought persists.
That scenario in no way is bearish. More likely a big sideways move between 10.000 and 11.000 has to be planned on. Only during the last stretch in sort of a small sell-out prices in the four digit area are approached.
Early in the year the Dow even can look slightly upwards again, as within wave (5) gains up to 11.005 or 11.095 are possible and likely. Medium term that is just a side note, as latest by spring a first correction wave should take hold. Then the primary target first is the upper 10.400 area. During summer even a retracement to the yearly top is possible, as it is a complex sideways move as mentioned.
The charts above include an inflation-adjusted chart of the Dow Jones. It is used to verify very long term wave counts, as there many exaggerations and distortions are not included. Especially the impulse structure since the early Eighties is more clearly visible, as is the long term position. During the next 4-7 years the big impulse wave V of (III) should dominate the market. The long term price target is roughly 60 percent above the current level. As it is an inflation-adjusted figure the gains for the Dow should be materially above 70% - but all this in the very long term context, which does not allow for an explicite prognosis for 2006 !
Long term cyclicality
The detailed meaning and explanation of the various cylces is skipped here, as there is no new info. Please consult the old analysis of April 6th, 2004.
The result then was as follow:
Jan 2004 top (13.7 months)
Aug 2004 low (13.7 nmonths)
4th quarter 2004 top (4 years, 13.7 months)
Mar 2005 top (13.7 months)
***
4th quarter 2006 low (4 years, 13.7 months)
2008 low (Benner)
2010 top (Benner)
Review: The outlook for 2005 was as follows:
- moderate gains during the first quarter
- lasting low during October
- slight gains during the last three months
All three main statements were right, apart of the fact that the October low marked the end of the sideways correction, but was not the yearly low.
Outlook for 2006:
As all are very long term cycles, little can be said about the extremes within the yearly development. But there is a very important date during 2006 which is of the same significance as the lows in 1998 and 2003. They are verfied by the Benner-Cycles as well as the 13.7 months and 4 year cycles. It is a long term and significant low in the fourth quarter of 2006. Though there is a tolerance of +/- one quarter, in the past these extremes were rather on target. For the new calendar year a low in the second half of October results. From 2007 onwards the long term trend points up again.
Concering the shorter term cyclicality the last date was at the end of October, it was a low. Apart of that important autumn-low there is a weak time window for the first quarter. Towards the end of March there should also be a low, realistically it will only be an intermediate low though.
Considering that the red lights will only turn green towards the end of the year, 2006 does not look rosy from a cyclical view. Though it cannot be said how long a bear wave will last and how low the market can go, but in the past at similarly significant cycle dates sharp down moves could be observed. A downmove in the second half of the year until October (maybe a Sell-Off) would be ideal. From 2007 to 2010 it is the cyclical turn of the Bulls again.
Result of the cycles for 2006:
In October a long term and significant low is to be expected. Apart of the date of an intermediate low at the end of March, no more statements are made for 2006.
The following charts are just to illustrate the result mentioned above and are therefore without further comment.
Dow Jones 4-year cycle
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/news/news/viewpic.php?picid=042/54/93
Dow Jones 13.7-months cycle
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/news/news/viewpic.php?picid=042/54/95
Dow Jones with Brenner-Cycles
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/news/news/viewpic.php?picid=042/54/94
Yearly outlook for 2006
In principle the long term cyclicality and Elliotwaves nicely fit together. In autumn 2006 a big and long term low is expected, ideal would be a low in the 9.400 area. Early in the year around 11.000 the yearly high is marked, so that the trend points down afterwards. Apart of the last dynamic move in September/October the Dow likely will remain at the 2005 level and mostly move sideways.
The technical alternative is a very strong first quarter to above 11.400 points. In that case the downside tartet for autumn is reduced to around 10.000 points.
Yearly Dow outlook for 2006
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/news/news/viewpic.php?picid=042/54/96
(Thanks C)
manti...
On the post you replied to, that Clearstation link will take you to Stockchart's Public List where my charts are on display.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID345695
POKERSAM...
Just an observation.
Ted's chart isn't so scary to me.
I see the price at the mid-way point between his 2240 resistance and 2164 support targets. That tells me we could go either way.
Taking a look at Ted's RSI(5) and MACD histogram, I see lower price with higher RSI and histogram. That tells me positive divergence as the lower price isn't being confirmed with lower indicators.
My bias towards the market is negative and I'm in cash. My denmo6 is on the sell and the $bpcompq/10EMA crossover(proudly stolen from W Yan) is on the sell.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID345695
POKERSAM...
One of the things that gives me and my position (long) comfort, is the lack of shorts by the commercials:
http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/SP.png
POKERSAM...
I don't see the SPX ETF, the SPYders, as overwhelmingly if not 100% negative.
I did see that you called the SPX a weaker short.
The CCI(20) regained the zero line, the ADX(14) hasn't crossed over, the MACD has crossedover, but remains above zero as does the RSI(14). The volume today was slightly higher than yesterday.
The $bpcompq hasn't crossed below the 10EMA yet(idea stolen without batting an eye from W Yan):
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